Wednesday Forecast

76 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)
In between storms well north and well south today but still unsettled. The snow fell mostly outside 495 in the early morning hours with rain further east and now we just have lingering lighter precipitation that will taper off. Thursday through Saturday will be mainly dry, rather windy, and trend colder. The next storm approaches later Sunday and if it gets here soon enough will bring some snow.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning and midday. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for areas of black ice. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing rain shower. Highs 38-45. Wind 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH late.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Risk of a passing snow shower. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 27-34.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows 15-23. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Unsettled weather continues with a possible mix of precipitation December 12. Watching for another possible precipitation threat about December 14 then a shot of windy/cold weather following that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Another storm threat early to mid period. Odds favor a milder track at this point.

76 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning!

    Thanks, TK!

    Earliest sunset of the year!

    This afternoon: 4:13:13 here in the Silver/Christmas City of Taunton!
    We made it!

    Remember Pearl Harbor (75 years ago today) and the veterans of the Greatest Generation.
    Live for and enjoy every moment!
    Enjoy the day!

    1. Was just thinking of that day. It was a great generation. I am certain those of us descended from it know where their loved ones were that morning and felt their deep pain as they shared their stories. Your words are beautifully true, Captain.

  6. Good morning. Recorded 0.13 inch in my rain gauge. None snow that I could see.
    Had a peek out around 4AM and it was raining with temp 39.

    Still NOT impressed with model output for the near future. We shall see.

    I still see storms passing through the Lakes.

  7. I see a series of weak systems with rain/snow and maybe one big one which goes to the west with rain

  8. Got a little bit of snow(coating) this morning in Groveland which was nice to see. It turned to rain just a few miles south on 95. Regardless of the snow potentials in the next two weeks, this December already feels more winter like than the last few that I can remember.

      2. I do not. Feels like a typical MILD December to me, but
        I am Extremely JADED! trust me. I have yet to break out
        the Winter coat. Still in light jacket/sweatshirt mode. Just NOT
        cold enough to break that stuff out. Perhaps for a few days starting this Friday. We shall see.

  9. My longer range outlook in December is certainly different than just 10 days to 2 weeks ago.

    I actually see some opportunity for snow in the long range 8 to 14 day time frame.

    Yes, it’s not currently on the models but that’s ok.

    One shared thing I think I see long range on both the EURO and the GFS is the idea of building a western ridge, one that is slightly offshore of the west coast.

    This should offer the opportunity to send some colder air further southward and maybe eastward. This ridge should be conducive to sending disturbances over the top of it, and then southeastward into the inter mountain west region of the U.S. So, I think I like the time period somewhere around 12/16 to 12/23 for a southern New England snowfall opportunity.

    1. I like your style and optimism. I hope you are correct.
      I tend to take the pessimistic view. I am not a glass 1/2 empty guy,
      but rather the glass is completely empty guy. Just the way I roll. I can’t
      help it. I’ve just seen so much shit, I come to expect it.

      I sincerely hope you are correct.

      Even for the 12th, things “may” just turn out better than I ever expected.
      There is at least a “chance”. We shall see. Looking forward to the 12Z runs
      for any possible changes.

      1. Sorry but I am literally laughing out loud. Bad part is I had just taken a sip of coffee and nearly spit it all over the screen.

        I got to here….”I am not a glass 1/2 empty guy, but rather the glass is completely empty guy”….and lost it!

        Maybe a few of us can have a TK led intervention. I’m neither glass half full or glass half empty. To me, there is no glass……

        ….except when it comes to a glass of wine of course!

    2. I agree Tom. To me the next 10 days or so look cold to very cold for most of the northern and eastern US. Arctic air/polar vortex intrusion. One or two small storms may slip to our west with brief warm-ups and some rain or mix as they do so. I don’t know how it would play out in terms of snow, but I think we’ll be primed for a much stronger storm somewhere over the eastern US by days 10-14. That storm may then pave the way for a pattern change to milder at least for a little while as we close out this year and begin next.

  10. Very tempered version of what can happen in January and February, but I think there’s been a small temp drop in eastern Massachusetts, as the winds have turned N and NW and grabbed some of the chillier air that was in eastern NH and southern Maine this morning.

    1. Yes, Still 37 at my house.

      It was 39 when I awoke at 7AM, but dropped to 37 by the time I left for
      the office shortly after 8.

  11. A little surprise at the office this morning (downtown Roxbury in the Dudley Sqaure area. The birds on walking on Shawmut Avenue). I spotted these 2 as I pulled into
    our parking lot, so I decided to snap a photo.

    http://imgur.com/a/hYxQv

    1. Sorry, this is the 1st time I have experienced this with Imgur.com

      I reduced the size of this photo over and over again, and still imgur
      presents it in this manner. Sorry.

      1. That is ok – I could turn my head – and love the photo. Thank you for sharing. I think I said that Mac’s cousin who lives just outside of Washington Square in Brookline has a whole flock of them too. I love that they find their way into the city.

        In addition to the normal wildlife, we now have coy wolves, coy dogs, and a bear (perhaps more). I do love nature.

        I also saw a bird the other day I was going to ask Matt about. It was about 12-16 inches tall. More on the slender side. Its chest was a shiny blue/green. I was driving and could not slow down. I didn’t see a tail or plumage. At first I thought peacock but I don’t think they live here.

          1. I thought pheasant also but it was definitely blue green.

            Flowergirl, cornell is my go to for birds and also was for horses and small animals. I couldnt find it on there either but will look again. Thank you!

            1. Hmmm.. sometimes googling the description of what you saw helps. It’s worked for me with bugs 😀

              1. It has the coloring of a peafowl but I didn’t see any long tail although since I was driving could have missed it. But they don’t live anywhere close to here. I’ll message Matt on FB. He may have an idea too. Thank you for your help and always so nice to see you here 🙂

                1. Because I’m always so busy at work, I mostly lurk 🙁 Had light snow in Chelmsford this morning with a dusting, same in Merrimack, NH at my office.

    1. Waiting for snow info, but looks more moderate to me than light. We shall see.

      Now I am REALLY waiting for the Euro. 😀

  14. Hmmm….wondering what has change all of a sudden?

    Not as much penetration up through the Lakes on these 2 runs.
    Thus coastals are generated, although not particularly strong on these runs.

  16. 12Z Euro is on on the Sunday System. See Ya.
    Takes a deeping low and goes about over Niagara Falls to just North of
    the center of lake Ontario. Figures.

    So, after a brief period of front end snow, it would go quickly over to RAIN, EVEN UP NORTH!

      1. +)!@#()U!@+()JI(WDJ*(@&$!()@#$+(!*@()#&!@()&!@*(#&!*(@#$^!*()@^$^!@)$^!(@#*!@*(#^)!@*(#!*()@*#$^)!*@#&!*(@#&!*(@&#*(!@*#&!*(@&#*!&(@*#&!*(@#&!()*@#&(!*#&)*!@&#*(!&@*#&!*(@#&!*(@#*(!&@$*^!&()#$^!&)&@#*(&!@*(#^!&*@^$&!@^#&*!^@()#*&!*(#&!@^#$*()!@*&#*(!@^#!&*(@^#&*!^@#*(&!*(@&#(!*@^#!(*@#&!*(#&*(!@#^)!*(&)@#!*(@&#*!&@()#&!)(*@#^!()*#*(!)@#&!()*#&()*

        Now that I have vented…

        1. I understood every word…..and all I have to say is

          (@#$^!*()@^$^!@)$^!(@#*!@*(#^)!@*(#!*()@*#$^)!*@#&!*(@#&!*(@&#*(!@*#&!*(@&#*!&(@*#&!*(@#&!()*@#&

          1. I didn’t know that you understood:

            !@()#(!@&#$*(&^!@*(#&(*!@&#*(!^@*(#&(!*@&#&*(!^@$^^&*()!@^)#$^)!@$*(&!@*()$^()!@^$)!^@)$!*(^$!(@*

            good job

            1. Thanks

              &#*(!@^#!&*(@^#&*!^@#*(&!*(@&#(!*@^#!(*@#&!*(#&*(!@#^)!*(&)@#!*(@&#*!&@()#&!)(*@#^!()*#*(!)@#&!()*#&()*

  17. Some serious spread on the 12z solutions. For the next 10 day period, I think the Euro is probably the closest. I don’t think we’re done with the Lakes Cutter regime yet. Arctic blast follows not long behind the early week storm. It’ll be about as cold as it gets in mid December around here.

    1. I like your term: “Lakes Cutter Regime”.

      And IF I were forced to chose, it would certainly be the Euro.

  18. Euro does NOT have Anything for the 15th, so I have no clue what
    the GFS and CMC are seeing. Perhaps the Euro has no clue.

  19. The Euro does show another system approaching on the 17th that looks a little
    more promising. We shall see.

  21. The weather models will continue to have issues timing the northern and southern stream energies. Best chance of meaningful snow will be sometime after the 16th but need things to line up just right. We have the cool air supply,

    1. “Line up just right” is an under statement. Systems just want to run right up through the Lakes. Cutting between a departing High and an arriving high.
      Another reason to call them cutters. 😀 We can still have decent cold air around, but we’ll always get a brief warm up just prior to and during the passing
      of the cutter. I suppose we could always catch a wave disturbance on
      the trailing front, although I haven’t seen one of those in a while.

      Funny how that works.

        1. Nothing says one of these clipper like systems come down and reorganize off the coast 😉 Just need a -NAO

  24. 18Z GFS wants to bring a weak and broad area of low pressure through the middle
    of the lakes spreading light snow into all of NE Sunday afternoon.

  26. All I can tell you is that both the GFS and ECMWF have been very bad (but not necessiarly at the same time) on low placement in relation to the predominant trough / ridge they depict. I would take any model snowfall output with not a grain of salt but a whole shaker of salt in your mouth

    1. Yes. I have noted this as well. Trick is knowing which is better / worse or to see if they are both equally bad. Usually it’s been one or the other though.

      I think I have it figured out…maybe……………

  27. Yawn, morning.
    Just took a peek at euro, gfs and cmc. With Tk and jma caveats noted, looks like some interesting times ahead. We shall see how things turn out.

  28. Hopefully interesting times produce snowfall around these parts or for me meaningful snow instead of these five wimpy snowfalls I have seen so far.

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