69 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

1. TK thank you! Mild periods, unsettled periods, warmer temps, cooler temps, etc. I like all of it.

2. Thanks TK !

   Same as Coastal, about 2.5 inches. 2 hr delay to boot.

   1. Nice on all accounts Tom! 🙂

3. Thank you.

4. 1.6″ at Logan. A nice fresh covering to freshen up the landscape. 🙂

   1. Coming in, I noticed greatly reduced visibility towards downtown and the
      airport. I wonder if they picked up some more?

5. Guessing inch…maybe tad more…in my side of the WU.

6. TK – Can you post your early thoughts for March?

   1. Cold and dry.

7. Thank you TK!

8. Thank you TK.

   See if you can follow along… he he he

   re: Snowfall

   I was surprised to see HOW much snow there was when I went out to clear things
   up before heading to work. I measured an even 2 inches.

   Cool. More than expected earlier and within my 2-4 inch range, but clearly I should have stuck with the 1-3 inch range. I got sucked in by afternoon HRRR runs showing kuchera snows approaching 3 inches for Boston. Oh well, I should have known better.
   Still I am pleased considering not long ago this was supposed to be a total and complete MISS.

   I wonder how Logan did? They were 34.5 for the season prior to yesterday.
   Approaching average.

   TK: Question

   Are we DONE with SNOW for the rest of the Winter, OR is it “possible” late this month or early next month we have a few more last chances for snow? Many thanks

   1. Several more chances easily.

      1. Ok, excellent and thank you.

9. I see blue sky here at the office. I am guessing we are done with this one, right on schedule.

10. 4 inches in Groveland, that marks 27″ over the last two weeks! To me it looks like March could potentially come in like a Lion. Unlike past winters, I think we may have a shot at some snow whereas it’s pretty much shut down after February over the last few winters that I can remember

11. Picture on the drive in this morning

    https://imgur.com/a/oPXEe

    1. Beautiful and thank you.

12. Thank you, TK.

13. JP Dave, I’m not the expert, but based on experience we’re definitely not done with winter, snow, and cold. Persistent cold – not that we’ve really had any this year – is less likely. But, there will probably be sufficient cold to tap into for a storm or two (or three) in late February and March. Don’t forget that even last year’s mild winter was capped by two snow events in April and some near-record cold. Every year I put my shovel away on Patriot’s Day.

    1. To be sure. I was just checking with the expert.
       😀

14. I forgot to say thank you, TK!

15. I would say a healthy 3″ in W Newton. Medium snow– a bit heavy.

    1. There were a few areas to the southwest that overachieved.

       1. What was your measurement today?

          1. 1.8

16. I came in at 2.1 at home in JP. We are due for a major late season storm, I have feeling with the warmth down south and some lingering cold we get a big storm up here in early March.

    1. I am up for a BIG MARCH snow storm. I’ll being doing the snow dance.

17. The only March I can remember that didn’t produce any snow was March 1979. That was a weird winter. As I recall, the February vacation that year was absolutely frigid. And persistent cold lasted a while, but it was a bone dry period. Once the mild air and clouds came back – in early March – no more cold and zero snow.

    1. Was that the March when we had extensive flooding in the state and they sandbagged the Charles River?

       1. Never mind….answered my own question as I was in wrong decde. I believe it was 1969.

18. I’m watching the 12z GFS run with amusement.

    At hr 213 and wondering where it’s going with what’s it has so far …..

    1. Somewhere it won’t go within a few runs. 🙂

       1. lol, so true.

19. Climate post… just the usual monthly summary. January 2017 has been rated by NOAA, as well as NASA, as the 3rd warmest January on record globally. It’s the warmest non-El Nino January on record, and trails only 2016 and 2007 overall. With a more pronounced La Nina failing to develop and now gone entirely, it is very unlikely 2017 will see the sort of drop off that typically follows strong El Nino events, although we should remain behind last year. Still, the pending development of a renewed El Nino argues for continued near record (probably a lot of monthly top 5’s) global temperatures right into the start of next year at least.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201701

    1. Thank you.

    2. I know this has been brought up before most notably by TK himself, but if there have been a number of stations in Siberia removed from this data and most recently the world’s cold has been in Siberia would that not skew the data. I’m no fan of the whole world record thing anyways when we are talking about this short of a time period. I also wonder about the heat island effect and how this might skew the data as well. There is no question that cities hold in more heat, but if too many stations are reporting for cities does that skew the data? I tend to be skeptical of a lot of things, particularly from bureaucratic entities, but that’s just me.

       1. Siberia has gone from being data-rich to pretty much data-void, unfortunately. And yes it makes a difference.

          1. The sad part is that while we are trying to verify or not verify whether there is climate change, we are not doing what we absolutely have to do. We are polluting the earth. We all know that. Stop it and in the end it will not matter one way or the other whether our climate is changing.

             I continue to note that cleaning up the earth is as political as climate change. That is a very sad testament to what we have become.

             1. Agree. I want to always do that, while fixing the information issues to help give us a clearer picture in the future.

                1. I know you do 🙂 You and I have consistently said the same.

    3. Thank you WxWatcher. I am pinning my hopes on your generation. Sadly, what my generation tried to start is being dismantled.

20. This too…

    “But there’s a problem: Nearly every single weather station the U.S. government uses to measure the country’s surface temperature may be compromised. Sensors that are supposed to be in empty clearings are instead exposed to crackling electronics and other unlikely sources of heat, from exhaust pipes and trash-burning barrels to chimneys and human graves.

    The National Climate Data Center (NCDC) uses this massive network of sensors to determine daily highs and lows at the 1,219 weather stations in its Historical Climatology Network (HCN). The network has existed since 1892, but only in the last decade has it come under intense scrutiny to determine whether the figures it measures can be trusted”

    1. This was suppose to append to the conversation above.

    2. Having worked extensively with GHCN data during my internship last summer, I can attest to very real problems with the data. Observations can be a can of worms. However, spotty bad stations such as the ones described in your reference material can’t account for the trends we’ve seen. They would make up tiny portions of any temperature increase on a global scale. And that’s only dealing with land stations. If the land isn’t warming like our data says it is, why are the oceans also so consistently warm? The two should more or less go hand in hand. I’m just trying to point out some of the thinking that goes into climate work.

       I’m not a climate expert, just climate literate. I wish all meteorologists could be climate literate, because too many are not. And if meteorologists, who are basically the next closest thing to climatologists, are not climate literate, we can’t expect anyone else to be. Skepticism is good, blind denial bad. If you’re really interested there’s plenty of material to dig into on these issues and those discussed above, but it’s well beyond what I’m willing or able to go into here.

       1. 😀 😀 😀 😀 how many big smiles can I make for this 😀 😀 :D: D:D 😀 😀 :D. THIS IS GREAT…. I will post some of the power point slides that I have for my coastal geology class when I get them back from my professor

       2. WxWatcher…..a very sincere thank you. As my nana would have said….you are rhe cat’s meow !

          1. 🙂

21. Fenway put in a bid to host Army-Navy game in 2018. Keeping fingers crossed they get it. 🙂 Yankee Stadium also has a bid though. 🙁

    1. We will see what happens.

       1. I believe we will know one way or another sometime in May.

22. What is Logan’s total now for the season after the 1.6 inches that fell last night?

    1. Harvey indicated that their total was 34.5 inches prior to last night.
       Then Math would say it is now 34.5 + 1.6 = 36.1 inches.

       IS that confirmed that 1.6 was the final total?

       1. And was 34.5 really the total beforehand?

          1. They actually received 1.7 inches, so make that
             36.2 inches. 😀

             1. Ok so 7.2 but still tons in JP

       2. I have 43.4 for Logan total. I’ll hope for a future storm with lots in JP and 7.3 Logan.

          1. Then that’s it

          2. 36.1 if looking for Logan snow total to date .

             1. 36.3 sorry

             2. I know. That’s how I did the math for my post…unless math is wrong that is

                1. I got that number on Harvey’s report

                   1. I think you are missing what I’m saying. We have 36.? Snow at Logan. I guessed 43.4. I’m just giving the number it takes to get to my guess.

23. Its a good read. I think most on here already know about this but for those that don’t
    http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/

24. We were digging out again here in Plymouth, NH this morning. Another 6″ or so of snow between yesterday and last night. The main trough axis set up a little farther north than expected, so we actually ended up with less than most forecasts indicated. Trying to precisely place a Norlun trough in advance is almost impossible. Still, between that snow and what we’ve been piling up for the past couple weeks, we’ve got a very solid snow cover on the ground.

    1. What an amazing year for ski areas.

       1. Definitely, much needed after last year!

       2. 🙂 🙂

       3. I have only gone once so far do to scheduling and stuff, but since I changed my work schedule so I have Sundays off… I plan on more skiing,

25. New post!

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