Monday Forecast

88 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Another warm-up to end February and start March. Fair weather today then unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday as described in the previous post. Behind this, colder air arrives during Thursday and Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-37 interior, 37-42 coast. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Lows 40-48. Highs 58-65.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Temperatures fall 50s to 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)
Near to below normal temperatures during this period with episodes of unsettled weather which may include rain, ice, and snow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)
Similar pattern should continue with episodes of unsettled weather and near to below normal temperatures. Late season snow for at least parts of the region possible during this time.

88 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks, TK…
    Prayers and positive thoughts, Longshot…

    Back in the classroom this morning.

    At least I am not as confused as Price-Waterhouse at the last night’s Academy Awards!!!

    How did THAT happen???
    You would think that couldn’t happen again after Steve Harvey and the Miss Universe pageant from a couple of years ago!

    1. I heard that the same thing happened in 1964 to Sammy Davis Jr. Don’t know the exact circumstances though. So it is obviously not unprecedented.

    2. I about smashed in the TV when LA LA LAND won best picture. What a JOKE
      of a movie, perhaps the worst one I have ever seen in my life!!!

      So thankful a well-done meaningful movie, MOON LIGHT, won instead.

      1. I saw La La Land just last week and I enjoyed it. I haven’t see Moonlight but maybe I will now due to the mix up. Will see.

        1. Well, you are way different than I. My wife and son hated it as well and also many of our friends. To each his own.

          Did you see Manchester by the Sea? My wife and I loved it. I thought it was one of the best movies ever, while my wife liked it a lot, but thought that I was over the top and that is was good but not best ever.

          Another, somewhat older movie, that is well worth watching is: The Constant Gardner with Rachel Weisz
          and Ralph Fiennes. Scathing commentary of the Pharmaceutical Industry.

          1. Manchester by the sea, was good for what it was, but it should not be called manchester by the sea, you would think it would be more ocean town based 😉

            1. Well it was based in the real Mass town of
              “Manchester-By-The-Sea”, so I don’t get what you are saying.

              1. I would of thought it would be a story of a fishermen /seadog kind of thing not a child custody issue.

  4. Captain Fantastic – Thank you for your answer to my question about record high temperatures back on yesterday’s post! I’m glad that I gave you something interesting to do during the big show.

  10. Just my observation, but Denzel Washington seemed out of sorts to me, like he was out of it and his face looked puffy. Has he had any health issues recently?

    I didn’t see his movie so I can’t personally comment on that aspect.

    1. I did notice something with him as well. I don’t know the answer though.
      At one point I thought that he looked upset and bewildered when he did Not win the award for a category for which he was nominated. (best actor which was won
      by Casey Affleck).

      1. I did notice that as well. I would have thought he would have at least “appeared” more gracious even if he was seething on the inside.

  12. JPDave thanks for the link. That is impressive for summer but March even more impressive Ill be curious to see future runs of that model. Even the GFS has been a little more bullish the past few runs than it normally is with severe weather parameters. Will see what 12z GFS shows.
    The SREF model you posted I find does a good job when it comes to sniffing out potential tornado development. This looks to be one of the low CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to high shear environments.

  13. The shear is more than enough for damaging wind gusts and rotating thunderstorms.
    When you see values like this you take notice. IF this does happen that would be something to have two episodes of severe weather in less than a week in the northeast and that it is happening in winter. Saturday two confirmed tornadoes one in PA and the other in Conway.

  15. Quick peak at the 12z GFS for the thunderstorm potential on Wed. showing on cod site 3km helicity values greater than 250 and in some over 300 in western parts of CT and MA around 5pm. Supercell composite greater than 0.5 in some cases over 1.0 in those same areas at same time.

  16. JPDave – just to answer your question from last night – no, that is not that Paragon Park coaster. It is actually “Le Monstre” from La Ronde in Montreal.

    1. Oh. Thank you for letting me know. Much appreciated.

      Have you ridden that coaster? Sounds like you are a coaster aficionado?

      1. I’m not, my other half is. She LOVES coasters, and yes, we’ve been to La Ronde. As much as I hate the Habs, she loves the city of Montreal. We’re heading up there this summer to see Guns N Roses.

            1. I went on the wild mouse (or something like that) ride once. It was enough that I still get shaky. I have a fear of heights. Yet I coild race my Mach I at over 100 mph. There is just no figuring me out I guess 🙂

  17. The fact that we could go from severe weather Wednesday to snow in 2 days. is remarkable and shows the variability of New England.

    1. Why do people always think that this only happens in New England? Folks in Denver are laughing at us. “2 days? We do that in under 12 hours!”

      1. Denvers weather is truly interesting to watch. It sure can happen elsewhere. But it certainly happens in New England ….one of the reasons I love it here.

        1. Denver was just one example, but it happens across the Midwest a lot more frequently than it does here. I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen severe weather outbreaks across the Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in the Spring and by the next morning there’s snow in some of the same places.

          Despite what people seem to think, our weather here is not that unique compared to other parts of the country.

          1. It happens around the world. But still is fascinating to see in your own backyard. I for one love weather swings.

        1. That’s the thing, it ISN’T that remarkable. It happens a lot more often and in more dramatic ways in a lot of other places.

          1. I agree with both Matt and SAK. Our weather is certainly changeable but I’ve also spent a couple of weeks in April in the Denver / Colorado Springs area and that was pretty wild. But to Matt’s point…The weather we have experienced over the past several days is remarkable to those of us who don’t experience the weather in other parts of the country. It’s just simply a personal opinion of what we are experiencing.

            2. Here’s the thing: it isn’t even that remarkable around here because it happens almost every year. It’s not that rare around here. The tornado touching down in Mass in February – that’s remarkable. Going from warm weather to snow in the span of two days? Ho-hum. Happens a lot more often that people think.

              1. Ok…not sure why we have to beat this dead horse but it might remarkable, interesting, insert whatever description you like, to someone who is experiencing it at the moment. Kinda cool that people can feel that kind of feeling.

              2. Yes the swings always happen and will continue to happen. They will become more extreme as well 😉 . I am agreeing with everything Keith has said. As someone who loves to track the weather everything is interesting to me. It fascinates me that we can have these major temperature swings despite our closeness to the Atlantic. Though you see the pacific affect the west coast temperature profiles more so than the atlantic affecting the east. Any major body of water will be a temperature control and limit how extreme one can get. The closer you are the the ocean the more it affects your weather which includes temperature swings. Thus is why its fascinating and somewhat concerning (at least for me) to watch temperature swings and severe weather ( which is usually chewed up by maritime air) form any time of year but especially fascinating to see in a time which it should be one of our coldest and snowiest months. So like keith has said stop beating the dead horse.

    1. Was just sitting out to chase rhe cobwebs away. It is lovely in the sun with a gentle breeze. Was much more tolerable for me than the warm weather last week as all that did wss drive my fever up. Next time around, I’ll enjoy that as well 🙂

  19. 12Z Euro still does NOT have much of a clipper for Friday/Fri night.
    Whatever precip it has, goes out well South of us. On the surface charts,
    I can’t even locate a defined low pressure center. However, BOTH the GFS and the NAM
    have it as a well defined clipper, even if not all that strong. Additionally, the UKMET and the JMA also have this system as with a well defined center. Not sure what that means, but we shall see.

  20. Will see how this plays out. Will be watching the radar on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk with latest SREF. Its small with the tweet and so hopefilly JPDave could post so its bigger to see. But areas west of CT River Valley could see some potent thunderstorms Wed afternoon evening.
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/836269604397793280

  21. Thanks JPDave. Looks to me its the same as the link you posted earlier with the same areas highlighted and same probabilities. A good size 30% area just west of the CT MA western boarder.

    1. My previous link was to the 03Z SREF.

      the 9Z is coming out now (Seems much later than it should).

      Will check that out in a bit.

    1. I did a side by side. The latest one is a bit more robust and extends the
      parameters a little farther to the East.

  24. Thanks JPDave. You could see with latest SREF a little more of SNE in that red shaded area. When an area on the SREF shows up in that red shade you need to pay attention.
    The Supercell and significant tornado parameters are impressive and would be impressive for the summer but more so for March. We don’t get those 1 2 with the significant tornado parameters as being shown in western parts of CT and MA and then you got a pocket with a value of 4 eastern PA, NJ and the NYC area.

  26. Interesting. Just read that for the first time since records have been kept, 146 years, Chicago will go the entire months of January and February with no snow on the ground.

    1. WOW! is all I have to say about that.

      However, We are fans of Chicago Fire, Chicago Med and Chicago PD.
      During the Winter Break, there appeared to have been filming in January/February which clearly showed snow on the ground. Of course, I don’t know the date of the filming, so perhaps it was December? I do not know.

  28. Northern NJ NYC area where the biggest severe parameters are in terms of the wind shear. As JPDave pointed out the severe parameters are the same for the western areas.
    We got a couple things to watch this week.

    1. The 18z GFS looks similar to the NAM, slightly intensifying the clipper as it skirts the south coast. 1-3 in easternmost Mass, with some higher amounts in elevated Worcester county and the berkshires.

  31. A rarity in Reykjavik, Iceland: A major snowstorm yesterday (over 20 inches; most in close to 100 years). Reykjavik is mostly a dreary, gray place with temps in the 30s and 40s during the winter, and mostly 50s in the summer. Very little variation. No heat waves, ever. And, very few nights with temps below 10F. The most prevalent precipitation type in winter is sleet. Sometimes they get a few inches of snow, but hardly ever more than that.

  32. Kind of catching up on the Conway, MA tornado. I had to look up where this town was. I was ready to find it close to the NY State border, but it’s east of that a bit. Not too far from interstate 91. So, trying to recall, I think this was east of the severe thunderstorm watch box that night or at the very easternmost edge of the box.

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