Tuesday Forecast

515 Comments

7:47AM

DAY 1 (TODAY)
Storm day. Here is what to expect. Low pressure tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies today. The center of low pressure will cut across southeastern MA this evening then track across the Gulf of Maine and into eastern Maine during tonight. Breaking down the details:
Precipitation… Areas of snow develop between 4AM and 6AM CT and RI, and between 5AM and 7AM MA and southern NH. Snow increases in intensity and falls at the rate of 1 to 4 inches per hour from late morning into afternoon, but a snow to sleet to rain line will enter Cape Cod and the South Coast by midday then eventually work north northwestward into southeastern MA and eventually to Cape Ann MA to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to Providence RI while snow continues to the northwest and west, then this changeover line will hold in place for a short time as the low pressure area cuts across southeastern MA, then will pull east again at night. Heaviest rain will occur over Cape Cod and far southeastern MA but as it works northwestward a slot of drier air will move up from the south and diminish if not stop the precipitation in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH early evening before some snow pulls eastward across northern and central MA and southeastern NH later at night.
Snow accumulation… 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket before rain, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Cod before rain, 6-12 inches Cape Ann to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to southern and eastern RI and across southern CT before mix/change which may include a period of sleet for some areas, 12-18 inches northwestern RI, central and northern CT, the remainder of MA and southern NH, and areas of greater than 18 inches outside of I-495 especially in central MA, southwestern NH, and areas of western MA as well.
Wind… North to northeast over interior areas, northeast to east in coastal areas in advance of the low pressure area increasing to 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coastal areas but gusts above 50 MPH are likely at times interior areas and above 60 MPH near the coast, including some gusts over 70 MPH on parts of Cape Cod. As low pressure crosses southeastern MA along its path the winds will drop off to variable and under 20 MPH near its path, remain northeast to north and still quite strong to its northwest and shift to south and southwest 20-40 MPH and gusty to the southeast of the track. Once the low is offshore, winds will be north to northwest 15-35 MPH with higher gusts all areas.
Coastal Flooding… Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide times favoring east-facing and north-facing coastal areas a couple hours either side of this afternoon’s 1:25PM high tide, and favoring north-facing and west-facing coastal areas (Cape Cod Bay) during the near 2AM high tide Wednesday morning.
Damage / Power Outages… Many weakened trees from drought and recent wind events could lose branches or fall. Power outages are most likely in southeastern MA but could occur anywhere.
Temperatures… Late day high temps reach 25-30 southwestern NH and central MA, 30s elsewhere except 40s along and southeast of where the low pressure center tracks, with a 50 possible on Nantucket. Temps tonight fall back to the 20s in all areas from northwest to southeast so areas that saw wetter snow and a change to rain will experience a freeze-up.

DAYS 2-5 (MARCH 15-18)
Upper level low pressure crosses the region Wednesday, then high pressure takes control Thursday and Friday. Next storm threat arrives this weekend but will re-evaluate that for the next update.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Highs 32-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 13-20. Highs 35-43.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late. Lows 15-22. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Snow/mix possible early March 19 and another risk of unsettled weather the middle of the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Additional unsettled weather most likely the middle of this period. Temperatures below normal.

515 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    DO you think the short range high Resolution models have a good handle on this?

    Thanks

  2. Thank you TK

    Started inSutton just about 4:00. Light snow since then with an inch even. Wind looks to be from ENE judging by flag across st

    1. Not to make light of what might be a big impact to many, but you know that of all of us, you probably won’t lose power 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. Thanks TK.
    Snowing at a good clip here. It will be a close call for my area whether the mix makes it here. If not I could see over a foot and a half of snow.

  12. Thanks TK. Was able to get out and get my Dunkin coffee before starting some work from home. I am a happy girl. 🙂

  13. Latest 11Z HRRR has it stay snow in Boston until at least 20Z approaching 21Z

    That’s 4-5PM.

    Now let’s make it happen!

    1. Probably not far off. I would give Boston 6-10″. I am in Newton on 128 and I expect 8-12″. Snow has begun.

  17. Tom – first and foremost…..I saw your comment above and I KNOW where to find you.

    Snow also picked up here. Was barely snowing for a bit. Flakes are very fine and basically horizontal to ground.

    2. Very interesting. THank you. I think I may have seen them, but not certain.

      I have seen Ice Needles.

  22. Watching that heavy band of snow approach my area. Winds are starting to gust. It’s going to be close if my area makes it into the 18-24 inches that was forecasted. If the mix doesn’t get here will achieve that with no problem.

      1. For sure. It is still snowing, just not quite as hard. Vis between
        3/4 and 1 mile. it was about 1/2 mile a while ago.

        Expect decent to insane snow from now until 3-4 or perhaps as late as 5PM

        How much falls in that time determines the total.

    1. You get those rates of snow to fall like that for a couple hours you will get close to if not maybe exceed a foot of snow even if it goes to mix and rain.

  27. The Charlie hole made it into southeastern CT earlier but is filling in. 1-3 snowfall rates getting closer to my area with that heavy band of snow. The range will be amazing here in CT from half of foot in southeastern CT to close to two feet northwestern parts of CT.

    1. Perhaps, it was here as well, JJ. I saw snow begin at 4:00 but by the time I woke back up three hours later there was just one inch and I was surprised.

  30. I can tell you one thing the city is ready . A lot of plows flying around seems like way more than other storms even big ones .

    1. Not many non-essential vehicles out. It’s nice seeing “common sense” actually live up to its name.

      Less traffic + less accidents = more efficient plowing/salting

      1. Agree . It’s quiet in this end of the city but still not as quiet as you would have thought . Hearing businesses closing around 12 here .

  37. Just measured 6.5 inches of snow. With those 1-3 hour snowfall rates coming into my area for next couple hours I see no problem getting a foot of snow here or perhaps little more even if the mix gets to my area.

  39. moderate snow here in East Bridgewater
    temp 33, expect heavier bands to drop the temp for a few hours

  40. Snow is waterlogged here. Winds gusting 25 to 30 …..

    I can’t see power lasting much later than 1 to 2 pm, unless the changeover gets to us before then.

  41. Thank you, TK.

    JJ, Mark, and Vicki, in terms of snow this is your storm. Enjoy!

    I still do not expect Boston to exceed 6 inches, some of which will be washed away by rain and rising temperatures. The storm track is what it is.

    1. I agree Joshua. Not sure if you saw last night but you posted some excellent stuff yesterday I believe right on the money. We shall see.

  42. Logan snowfall to date = 39.2″

    Normal Logan snowfall = 43.8″

    Do the math (4.6″) but still may be close…no slam dunk Boston gets to normal later today if warmth zooms into our coastline. Keeping fingers crossed though. 🙂

      1. Question I believe I know the answer to but thought I’d ask.

        If Boston (Logan) gets 10 inches and 4 are washed away, it still counts as 10 correct?

      1. Nothing much to speak of here either. Although visibility is diminishing somewhat. We have had 1 inch in the past 1.5 hours.

  44. Thank you so much, TK…
    Side streets are white here in Taunton.
    Winds have picked up a bit in that last hour.
    Hunkered down and watching!

    Please stay safe, everyone, and enjoy!

  46. Someone asked if those echoes are in NYC is rain ir snow. Well just to the north it’s actually snow. Imagine those snow rates here!! I hope we get to the orange echoes

  47. Thanks Joshua I am going to enjoy it.
    It is just snowing to beat the band. I am going to measure this around noon. My first measurement was 6.5 at 9am.

  52. I am hoping Ryan Hanrahan’s updated snowfall map happens. He has my area in the 18-24 inch range. He also mentioned on air a dry slot will show up in eastern parts of CT earlier while my area doesn’t get into that but that mix area looks to get into my area so I don’t know if I get into that 18-24 inch range.

  53. Thanks for the post TK. A lot of people on my feed who live on the coast just savaging meteorologists already. Sheesh.

  54. Bearing in mind that I am very close to the ocean ……

    JpDave, are you sitting down ??

    Visibility way up in mixed rain and snow.

    1. Yes I am sitting down. That sound like boundary layer issues due to your
      proximity to the ocean. 😀

  56. For all the time it has been snowing we may have picked up 1/2 inch or so.
    Waste of snow time. Our window is so small, it is a total waste to have this
    puny intensity while it is snowing. Total waste!

    1. Snow is wetter here (Sutton) by a bit and I think compacting some. I’m still measuring 2 inches but it is snowing hard enough that it seems it should be more. Windows look as if they have rain on them. I got a bit nervous for a minute.

  60. I know its the NAM but man is it loaded with QPF.

    This storm is going to go right over Tom’s house I think.

  61. Unimpressed with the snow intensity so far. It didn’t really start here until 9am and hasn’t picked up much since, 1/2″ maybe if that.

    1. Boy, that shows most are in the darkest greens, but its not reflective of whats going on out there.

  70. NYC Blizzard Warning cancelled and replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory and Flood Watch.

    Meanwhile, Blizzard Warnings have been expanded north to Plattsburgh and Burlington

      1. Looks like the storm track has gone farther west than anyone expected. Looks like Eastern Mass. will be in for a good deal of rain this afternoon. Oh well, such is life.

  71. Mark shoreline bust in CT but inland we could have one heck of a snowfall before this thing changes over to a mix this afternoon.

  73. Incredibly intense snow band about to move in here. Looks like 3-5″ per hour snows. Going to really thump for a few hours and then be done. The freakin’ dry slot is already halfway up the NJ shore. This thing could be done here by 1PM!

  74. Snowing light to moderate here in Sudbury. Barely any wind. Approx. 2-3 inches of snow. Haven’t been out – assuming it’s a wet snow; but temp. is 29.8 degrees.

  75. It’s just a question of how much snow can we squeeze out during our window of opportunity and how long that window lasts. IT WILL change over sometime in
    the 2-5 PM window, The earlier the less snow, the later the more snow.

  76. We are not into that intense band yet, but the snow intensity here has picked up more.
    Borderline HEAVY SNOW here with vis very close to or at 1/4 mile.

  77. Mark Ryan was mentioning it on air eastern areas of CT could get into that dry slot where western areas are not going to get dry slotted

  79. I could tell you where I am the wind is picking up big time as the morning has gone on and it looks like a blizzard

  80. Heavy rain being reported throughout Long Island. Sleet in NYC.

    Thunderstorm and sleet in Newark, NJ.

  85. I really hope that intense band gets in here from the south coast before the changeover. That’s the ONLY way boston gets anywhere close to double digits

    1. I am counting on it. Lates HR guidance suggest change over in the 3-5 PM time frame. I am hoping for at least 4 PM to make the window of opportunity longer.
      Of course if things get fouled up and the window closes at 1PM, well then
      adjust snow numbers accordingly.

  86. From Eric Fisher a little earlier this morning

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account
    @ericfisher

    Majority of the snow for most comes in a 5-7 hour blast. Short window of intense rates, up to 2-4″/hour.

  87. Full fledged blizzard now Coventry, CT. Sideways heavy snow and blowing snow. Visibility is down to a 100 yards or so. Just measured 7″. Temp has ticked up to 24.

  88. Visibility down. I can just barely make out house on end of street that runs into ours (3 houses away).

    I changed spots to measure. The wind is not intense but absolutely steady and the snow is light enough to be blown away. I think spot I measured was not accurate.

    I measured 3.5 inches in another spot (I dont have one that is totally protected) and then cleaned the spot off. Will continue to measure. I also cleaned part of the deck table on the wind side, leaving snow behind it. We will see.

  89. Mark I got those conditions here with the snow coming down sideways and heavy snow.
    I see no problem if this continues as snow until mid afternoon to get over a foot of snow after measuring 6.5 inches at 9am.

  90. Gov Malloy in his news conference just warned of 6″ per hour snow rates over the next few hours with the incoming band

  92. The absolute heaviest band I have seen on radar may be headed up all along Eastern
    MA. Currently South of New Bedford.

    Have a look

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6413043478260869&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=346.2033898305084&centery=176.84745762711867&transx=-53.7966101694916&transy=-63.15254237288133&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24825041&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. If that ends up snow and I think it will at least up here, that
        could translate to 5,6 or even 7 inches per hour!!!

        1. 2 hours under that band puts a location in double digits as long as it doesn’t flip before the band quits.

  93. Ok – I am officially twitting 😉 Watch out world. Pete B retweated that a 52 mph gust was recorded at Millenium park West Roxbury. And I promise I will not keep repeating what folks tweet. I just thought that was interesting.

    1. I believe it. There was a huge gust here not long ago. Millenium Park is not far from here, like 3-4 miles. The end of that park is a stone’s throw across the
      Charles from Needham. 😀 Inland quite a ways from the shore line.

  94. Once this band gets in here, it will be here for a long time. This is no narrow band as it
    is very wide.

  98. We are in the band big time. Pounding snow – closing in on 9″, just received another inch in the last 15 min.

    2. Last time I saw it snow this hard was in NEMO when we picked up a foot of snow in a two and a half hour span.

  100. Intense here – I can literally just barely make out that there is a house at end of street I face.

  102. Getting intense here and that band has not yet arrived.
    UNDER 1/4 mile in heavy snow here. Really accumulating now. Let’s see HOW HIGH
    it will go.

    1. Btw, this run of HRRR says Changeover is around the 4PM hour.
      Think of it snowing like this for 5 more hours!!

  105. I don’t care if the temperature is hovering between 32 and 33, beginning to look
    like blizzard conditions here after all.

  107. Very solid snow band moving through here in Plymouth, NH. Interesting to see such banding so far north already, it shows very well on radar from NH through ME.

  108. Harbor buoy hanging at 060 wind direction at 11am. Seemingly oscillating back and forth between 060 and 070 the last few hours. In fact, last hour it was 070.

    I’d think it’s another small scale signal that the sfc low is headed closer to Plymouth than to Boston. I believe if the low was destined to go over or even just west of Boston, that wind would be 090 or even a bit ESE at that buoy already.

  113. Heavy coating in W Newton. Perhaps a half inch. Steady snow. Flakes are noticeably growing is size as I write.

    1. Not sure what you mean?

      If you have a photo on your computer or phone, then you can upload
      it to a site called Imgur at Imgur.com. When you upload it, it gives you
      a link that you can post and others can click on it to view the photo.

      Not sure iF that is what you meant or something altogether. I figured it
      couldn’t hurt to post this.

  119. I’m guessing we are seeing 8 : 1 snow ratio here in eastern Marshfield.

    Snow is pasting to everything. The trees already look like they’re carrying extra weight.

    C’mon rain !!

      1. I think the low is hitting the latitude where it’s encountering the cold dome to our north. Boston, your location and nearby areas are where that r/s line won’t charge through. But, it has my ok for it to charge through here. 🙂 🙂

        1. Right. I don’t think it is going more East. The change is
          coming, I just hope it is later than sooner like the
          Super Storm of 93.

    2. Not sure of ration here. I’m thinking close to the average 10:1
      Could be somewhat less. Don’t know for certain, but I have seen it blowing
      around as if it were powder even though it is 32-33. One thermometer
      is reading 32.4 and the other like 32.5. 😀

  120. dry tiny flakes blowing around reducing visibility, maybe 1 inch on the ground Vis around 1/4 mile. Been extremely windy. Winds in the range sustained winds around 23mph with gusts up around 34. Highest gust was 51mph by my wind meter

  123. I honestly think that Boston makes double digit snow today.
    We shall see. Timing timing and more timing.
    If we can keep that window open just long enough, we can do it.

    1. Window is shrinking old salty . Warm air is going to be getting in by 3-4 the latest if not before

    2. Very nice, Coastal. I just shot one of back yard but have not had time to post. Your trees are sagging some? The pines?

  129. we are at 6.5 inches although difficult to measure. I tried clearing another place that might be better. My guess is it is more than that but it is blowing. Visibility is down to next to nothing. I can barely see house directly across the street.

  130. Some power outages reported in South Middleborough and in Lakeville near Rt. 140.
    Nothing reported as of yet in the Taunton/Bridgewater area.

    1. I’m in Lakeville near the East Freetown line and power went out for a minute but came back. It’s basically raining snow right now. Unbelievably large slush balls falling from the sky/surrounding trees bombing my front yard and driveway.

      2. Just saw this. A very Hearty Welcome Jeff.

        Love your first post. Pretty comical. You will fit in just fine.

  131. We’re at something like 3-4 inches. Haven’t been out. Will after lunch at some point.
    I certainly want to get a measurement before the changeover.

  137. I’ve had people ask me (not here) “so, where’s all the snow and wind?”

    All I can do is shake my head and chuckle at the unfixable ignorance…

  140. Regarding our window of opportunity. If we don’t make the double digits it is not due the warm air surging in early, but rather to a drop off in expected snow intensity.
    Those intense bands appear to be floundering as they get up here. The band looks
    miserable up here.

    Have a look

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6413043478260869&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=346.2033898305084&centery=176.84745762711867&transx=-53.7966101694916&transy=-63.15254237288133&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24825132&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. Yea I was noticing that. It’s still snowing to beat the band but they seem to lose their “darkness” as they get up here

  144. Harbor buoy wind at noon 060 as it was at 11 am.

    However, it also reports wind direction every 10 minutes.

    Btwn 10 and 11 am, they were 063

    Btwn 11 and noon, they were 059.

    As expected, low has moved NNE along the coast however, I believe it will now begin to slide more ENE.

    This won’t stop the mild air aloft or the warming of the boundary layer, but is a sign that the progression of the two north and westward should be slower going forward.

      1. That’s what I was trying to describe above.

        From where it was around cape Hatteras last night to Atlantic city, if it maintained that track, it literally would go west of concord, NH. I like the canal too.

    1. I’m having flashbacks …..

      I agree with your timing, another hr or so of this and out towns are going to be in that same boat.

  148. Friend in NYC said some light snow this am, as of two hours ago turned to sleet/rain. They, as I think several have said here, did not receive what was expected but other areas of NY, according to their governor, are receiving more than expected.

  149. It’s beautiful outside, but so far it hasn’t been a big snow party in Boston like it has in certain parts of SNE. I haven’t measured, but my guess would be a tad over 3 inches. Unfortunately the sleet/snow/rain line will inevitably be here within a few hours or less. It could snow 7 more inches between now and then to make this a double-digit storm. We’ll see. How much sleet and rain will fall will be interesting given that we’re expected to dry-slot at a certain point. There will be refreezing overnight which will make things treacherous tomorrow morning.

    1. Not sure what part of Boston you are referring to but it’s pounding here and I don’t mix moving here for a while

  150. 6.5 inches of snow 9am now just took a measurement and up to 11 inches of snow.
    I think I will see my second storm this winter of over a foot of snow.

  153. I am AceMaster. I have had blizzard conditions here.
    For a small state of CT its amazing that some parts of the state its a rainorama other places its a snoworama.

      1. I don’t if I am going to see 2 feet of snow. That mix line is forecasted Northwest Hill Towns Norfolk Cannan I think have a shot at that two feet of snow where they will stay all snow.

  154. I keep hearing about this dry slot. Looking at the curent radar, it doesn’t look like a dry slot, it looks like the end of the storm

  157. The winds have been strong at times. I ran 3 miles in the snow and wind. Always a nice experience for the Eskimo in me. Jogging across the Mass. Ave. bridge with snow blowing sideways (feels like little needles hitting your face) is a beautiful thing. For me, at least. I know, most people would prefer to be at the beach on a 85F day.

  158. Absolutely getting crushed here. Barley can see the house next door. Haven’t measured yet but looks like at least 4-5 inches now.

  162. Just jumped from 1/2 inch to 5 inches here in W Newton. in about 90 minutes. Just finished round one of shoveling.

  163. I think the warm air aloft may be nearby Marshfield.

    Back to huge silver dollar snowflakes but there is a lot of space btwn the flakes and the visibility is up.

    1. Silver dollar snowflakes are pretty, and they are often an indicator of sleet and rain on the way.

  164. it let up here Visibility back up to around 1/4 of a mile. 5 inches of snow, 4 of it within the past 1 hour. Sustained winds around 25mph gusts twice that easily met.

  165. 11.5″ here in Coventry, CT but snow is now mixing with some sleet. Rate of accumulation is down. Up to 29 degrees.

    Sleet line is charging north through CT. Was good while it lasted!

    1. Philip – the very same thing here. Grandkids thought it was raining. When I first looked this am, I thought it was also.

  169. According to JR, the storm is manufacturing its own cold air, keeping the r/s line at bay…for now.

  172. I have never seen this before in which it is snowing heavy just above the house but only light snow is making it to the ground as the wind is making the snow go straight sideways.

  174. Snow in Back Bay has never gotten very heavy throughout the storm, and is now perhaps moderate. Temp is 32.5F, according to my thermometer, and there’s some dripping going on. I think it’s about to head up into the mid 30s before crashing back down into the 20s late tonight.

    1. can tell you that is no longer the case, I have 5-7 inches on the ground here in Billerica.

  176. I would like to get started shoveling ASAP before it flash freezes. When the r/s line passes through Boston, will the strong winds drop off as well?

    1. Between 3-4 maybe sooner should be straight rain . I don’t think any part of Boston will hit double digits.

  177. 12″ even in Coventry, CT but we have now flipped almost entirely to sleet and it is sleeting hard. The sleet feels like tiny pebbles pelting against your face sideways in the wind. Going out to brave the elements now and start clearing before the snow starts to really get weighted down.

    I could see us adding another inch of pure sleet the way it is coming down but looks like we are going to end up in the lower end of the forecasted 12-18″ range.

  180. Highest totals I have seen so far….

    East Jewett, NY in the Catskills – 20″ (well on their way to 30″)
    Taconic, CT in Litchfield County – 16.5″
    Monterey, MA in the Berkshires – 15″

  181. 6″ now in Sharon. Snow appears to be in transition. It’s becoming “sleety” as visibility is improving

  182. Eastern NY is really going to be in the jackpot here with widespread 20″+ amounts. I remember several storms like this growing up there but they have been in quite a drought in recent years, missing out on many of the big ones we have gotten in New England. Well overdue for them.

    1. 100% agree mark. Many of my college friends still live up there (Schenectady area) and they’re loving this

  183. Wind has really picked up in the last hour or so here in Sudbury. More like gusts of wind. Temp. is 32 degrees. Snow is falling off some trees and bushes – prob’ly due to wind – but I can’t tell if there is some sleet/rain mixing in. Could there be some melting going on? It is 32 out but prob’ly no melting. Some mets. (won’t mention) or weather sources have called this “historic storm”. Right. If I knew how to make appropriate emoticons I would make some sort of silly face. It’s still winter; it’s a snowstorm; it can be dangerous; it’s lousy at this time of year – so be it. Our lights have flickered on occasion. At this time of year hoping that doesn’t happen. Sorry, Vicki! 🙂

    1. You made me laugh. I only want power outage for me……I hope everyone else’s stays on. In part because I know no one wants to lose power. In party because I, admittedly, will be jealous !! Good to see you here, rainshine!

  185. According to our local spotter in North Reading, who is normally really good, 8.1 inches at 12:59 p.m. and we have been getting pounded for the last hour. Wind gusts unreal.

  186. 75% sleet, 25% snow in Sharon. The end is near, of the accumulating snow anyways. Bring on the wind now.

  187. Just looked at the National Grid map, looks like there are a bunch of outages in Medford and Malden.

  188. I just measured 7.5″ in Groveland….temp steady at 32…..It is snowing like crazy and the wind has been howling for a couple hours now

  190. Just measured 6 inches even here.
    It is NOT sleeting, however, it is a real grauply kind of snow, snow pellets if you
    will. Accumulating fast.

  191. 6 1/2 inches in Chelmsford. Snow changes between coming down really really hard and really hard. 🙂

    1. Hi Fox Hill School….I seem to recall you have posted before. If you have….welcome back. If I am incorrect….welcome!

      1. Long time reader, little commentator here Vicki 🙂 Just trying to help out where I can.

  192. According to my better half, we now have sleet at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound in Brockton. About 4″ on the ground.

    Here at my office in Nashua, visibility is about 10o yards and we have approximately 6-8″ already.

    1. I just hung up with my wife and it’s pouring in pembroke she said . Plow guy just finished plowing . should not be long Sak where I am longwood medical area Boston. .

  193. We are under the dark green echoes yet the snow looks different than before, alot smaller but it’s not sleet I think?
    I am in Reading, I don’t think the Changover occurs here this early

    1. I’m surprised this is the first report of thundersnow. I really thought with a rapidly deepening system we would have thundersnow with some of those intense bands rotating up from the south coast.

  197. From Ryan Hanrahan. Will see if BDL adds to this total.
    12.7″ at BDL is now the 5th largest March snowstorm on record.

  201. 4.5″ so far at Logan as of 1:00 pm…only 0.1″ to go to achieve normal snowfall (43.8″).

  202. snow/sleet here in Billerica. 🙁 visibility has gone back up. 9 inches of snow here, strongest gusts were around 57 based on my wind meter.

    TK, is the snow/sleet going to end around 5ish??

  204. Two storms this winter with over a foot of snow for inland CT.
    Season total so far BDL 57.7 So far this decade 10-11 12-13 13-14 14-15 and this winter
    BDL has recorded over 50 inches of snow for the winter. The least snowiest so far this decade was 11-12 winter with 24 inches. Last winter only 26.9 inches.

    1. Impressive seasonal total for BDL so far and there will be at least 2-3 more opportunities in the next few weeks to add to it.

      12.5″ here in Coventry now (12″ snow and the last 0.5″ sleet). Still sleeting. What did you end up with JJ?

      1. Mark this reminds of me of 05-06 winter where it was a real mild winter and BDL ended up with over 60 inches of snow including the 21.8 inches the fell Feb 12, 2006 which was the biggest snowstorm on record until January 11-12 2011 when 24.0 inches fell.
        I just measured a foot of snow. The rate of snow has fallen off big time. I measured at 9am 6.5 inches noon 11 inches now at 245 a foot of snow.

  205. Before the days of computers, blogs, weather models, as a boy, I always hated to hear sleet on the windows during a snow storm because that meant we were going to have school in the morning!

  206. I’m not out there so I can’t examine it, but I hear something hit the windows. Sounds
    harder than snow but not as hard as sleet. Probably those snow pellet thingys again. 😀

  207. Between the cold and this storm, spring seems so far away. Like months away.

    Only a few weeks ago, it fealt right around the corner.

        1. I agree. Anyplace from Boston south that cancels would have to have other issues non weather related.

  209. Sleeting in Westwood. Forecast as expected. Maybe 7 inches. Storm is progressive. Precip looks to shut off in central and eastern sections by evening.

    1. That seems odd. Must be concerned about ICE tomorrow morning?
      Seems otherwise, they should have school???

      1. Out of an abundance of caution due to the possible freezing later. He also said they have enough salt for tonight and for “the storm this weekend”. 🙂

    2. Not gonna question those who have the knowledge. I’m assuming they are concerned about kids getting there safely and having all sidewalks clear.

    3. As a school board member in a suburban town, I don’t get it. Boston may end up with what, 5-6 inches of snow, and they cancel school for 2 days?

      1. I learned living in Framingham, which is nowhere near as large as Boston nor does it have to move as many students, that there are many factors that are different from suburbia. One of Framingham’s problems was sidewalks. Their crews were busy clearing streets, but all sidewalks within a mile of every school has to be cleared. Businesses tend to plow their driveways, etc and fill in passage along the sidewalk. The town has to then reopen the sidewalks so kids don’t have to duck into the street.

        This may or may not be the reason, but I don’t have the knowledge they have so won’t second guess them.

        Me – I loved snow days for me. I loved snow days for my kids. I love them now for my grandkids. A right of passage for kids and adults alike 🙂 So I am probably have a biased perspective 🙂

    4. That’s crazy . As you know I’m here doing snow removal it’s going to wash away and salters out tonight . What a joke .

      2. These 2-day snow days have now become the norm. I get all the reasons; safety issues with kids walking to school, trouble clearing streets/sidewalks, etc. But at some point, we need to do a better job at snow removal in the cities. We can’t use it as an excuse anymore to cancelling school when conditions are otherwise fine. How this is accomplished I have no idea. Bigger DPW budgets, better infrastructure, wider streets/sidewalks? Easier said than done obviously.

  221. Our snow blower couldn’t get through the block of snow. Neighbor let son in law use his. I suspect a shear pin may have snapped as the blade was not turning as it should. But then it could be that the snow is water logged.

  222. Pouring rain now here even though the radar clearly shows snow. Final tally here before the change over = 7″

  223. Huge tree just fell across our driveway her in North Reading, narrowly missing the house. So, not only can I not clean up the driveway now, but we are trapped as there are no way we can get our cars out. Thankfully, our cars were parked in the garage.

  224. Just came in from more clean up. Shoveled the deck and then the walks and driveway again after the plow. Thanks a lot.

    It is still Wintry precipitation here and it is 4:11 PM.
    Mostly TRUE SLEET now with some snow still mixed in.

    The Precip Shut OFF is near. I am seriously wondering if we don’t ever go to all rain?
    Although temp has crept up to 33.4

    Btw, another measurement. 7 1/2 inches here.

    Why didn’t we make double digits?

    1. Not enough qpf. Bands mostly disbanded when they got this far North.
    That was the BIGGEST disappointment of the day.
    2. What qpf delivered was annihilated by the ratio. Must have been 5 or 6 to
    1. BRUTALLY heavy disgusting slop!!!
    3. Related to 1, but Precip just shutting off too soon, rain or not.

      1. Totally agree. I was expecting something in the neighborhood
        of 4 inches per hour. NOT EVEN CLOSE! For 1 hour may have
        seen 2 inches per. Most was 1/2 to 1 inch per.

  225. Mel, thank goodness you’re well.

    I just did a few errands at the local convenience store and CVS. On my walk over there it was a nasty mix of heavy sleet, snow, and rain. The snow that accumulated is very dense. Not a lot of it, but the streets are a mess.

  228. Even if we get a bit of rain, it will be lighter and won’t last long.
    Despite the track, this will go down as predominately a snow storm in Boston.
    Pretty cool considering.

  229. Thanks for the well wishes, everyone. Now just hoping none of the other trees in the same area fall and that we can get someone here in a timely fashion to get the one that fell out of the way. Love New England weather! 🙂

  230. It’s official it has gone over to RAIN here. 4:30 PM. HR models were spot on with
    the changeover.

        1. But then our esteemed leader is concerned:

          I quote him: “Something concerns me about that threat.”

  231. This was the 4Pm Obs from Logan:

    Snow Small Hail/Snow Pellets Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

    So they were calling it snow pellets. Yup I saw those. 😀

  232. According to hrrr 19Z run, drop to below freezing at the coast 10-11 PM and drop to teens by AM. everything will freeze rock solid!

    remove snow now!

    1. Just took a ride around town and there are some huge puddles on the roads. Could be some slick spots for sure tomorrow morning.

  233. What was Logan’s total today? They probably had 4:1 snow which is basically water. 😀 😀 😀

  234. Low must be far away. Winds have slackened considerably and it’s rather mild outside now, in the low 40s. Most of 2.5 inches of snow is gone.

  235. 12z Euro is interesting for the weekend – it digs and forms a coastal storm off shore. Not far off from something bigger. Still drops 2-5″ of snow across most of SNE.

  236. Messy precip. lingering in Newton. I would say safely 6.5 – 7″ of wet snow total. Fortunately I got the first five inches out of the way around noon. The last two weighed a ton. I do not recall lifting heavier snow. And it was barely two inches!

    Hoping to fly out of Logan to Oregon high desert tomorrow.

  237. Mark I noticed that low on the east cost over the weekend on the 12z EURO. This must be watched.
    BDL at 12.7. The greatest March snowstorm is 14.8 at BDL. Will see if we break that record.

    1. That report is now fairly old. I think they may have broken it as they stayed snow longer.
      Still freezing rain and sleet here, ugh….

  238. I had sleet mixed in at times with the snow but never completely went over to sleet. It was just enough sleet to make that snow heavier.
    I believe the new snowfall report for BDL comes in 7 or 8pm so we shall see. Its a good snow event for interior CT and as you pointed out earlier we may not be done with the snow as the weekend is our next time to watch for something.

  239. JeffW your post is approved. I didn’t have a chance to get to that until just now.

    (It was made about 12:30PM if anyone would like to scroll back to see it. Very good comment.)

  240. Just a quick update from the Hingham area. Just got home from work (I’m working over at SSH now…but still employed by the medical center). Weymouth roads were a utter mess….lots of snow and ice all over the place as well as lots of street flooding in places (with a few cars getting stuck). Hingham roads were a little better but lots of branches and even some trees down. One large branch about 10 ft long was down on the sidewalk near one of the schools. It’s going to take most of the night to clean up a lot of this. Would have preferred all snow.

    1. Son said Boston is messy as well. He agreed with Joshua’s earlier comment. I think you are correct about preferring all snow.

      Rain here now which is mixing with slushy snow left by plows. Might be really nasty driving when it freezes.

  242. Just came in from a partial cleanup, I’m beat! Maybe 8 inches at peak, but sleet / mix has compacted down. Roaring winds, small branches everywhere, dirty yellow we snow on top, from the trees I think, just nasty out! No pushing the snow around, just super dense and heavy. Have to carry each shovelful. Had a couple power blips, but longest was only a minute or two. Will have to head back out in a bit.

    Tom

  243. Welcome JeffW. Read your earlier post – had to laugh at your third sentence, what a visual!

    I could relate because our snow is drenched, the soggy trees are bending and even some snowplow trucks are breaking down. Quite a wet storm on the coast.

    1. Every time we had a big wind gust between about 10:30 and noon it was accompanied by a series of thuds as the slush would fly out of the trees and mix with the massive snowflakes. My car was getting bombed. I’m going to look at my security camera to see if I can find footage of the lunacy.

  245. Extremely windy, some freezing rain/ light snow/ sleet mix going on right now.
    Weekend storm looks possible if there is enough time for it to develop

  247. Zero wind here for the last couple hours. Like Tom said, low must be close or right overhead

  248. winds gusts are still extremely strong. Snow very wet. Got about 11 inches. but down to 10 due to snow melt. Branches are littered around the area. Big and small. Big pine tree dropped a very large branch.

    1. Strange distrubution. We got 7″ in Sharon so thats about right. 9.5″ on Martha’s Vineyard?? That’s gotta be a typ0

  253. Still Rainy and windy here, although not as strong as earlier.
    Looks like we escaped with no wind damage and no power outage.

  254. I am happy with the foot of the snow I got. Second biggest storm of the season here. Last month I had 13.5. As a snow lover I am happy to have two storms which produced those amounts of snow.

  255. I know it is only Tuesday but is the weekend storm looking like Sat or Sun? We head to South Carolina on Monday and just hoping we don’t have any obstacles.

    1. According to Eric, both Saturday and Sunday with Sunday having the most accumulation…less than 6″ if I understood him correctly.

      1. I’m still (again) not sure why snowfall accumulations are being mentioned by anyone for a POSSIBLE system 4 to 5 days away.

        This simply makes no sense to me.

  256. I am not going to question the decision to close BPS but why does the mayor have to be officially announce it during press conferences? I would hope he consults with the school superintendent who should be the one who stands at the podium. Back in my day (1960s/70s) the BPS superintendent stood before the cameras and made school related announcements (cancellations, reopenings, etc.) not the mayor.

    1. I’d agree on that. Not sure if you saw my post last night re Sutton cancellation call to all parents. It is always rhe superintendent who makes the calls. He suggested the kids use the day to clean the house top to bottom and would get extra credit for doing two bathrooms. My grandson loved it. Makes the superintendent a real person. Sutton, and others out here, are wisely delaying opening for two hours tomorrow.

      2. And as I say that, I wonder if the superintendent did make a reverse phone call ….I assumed. Sorry

  257. Not sure what we got here. Probably a foot give or take. I gave up on measuring once the wind started screaming.

    The media can live and die by the sword on this one for all I care. (and for all others in the future for that matter)

  258. Pretty neat, the cooler air has really wrapped around the low as Plymouth and Nantucket have southerly winds and their temps are now slowly falling.

  259. Just saw from a Tweet from Eric Fisher Boston 6.6 inches bringing the season total to 45.8 inches which is a little above what Boston gets for the winter.

    1. Pretty good for a system that came so tight to the coast and had an otherwise ordinary polar high to the north.

  260. Keith…a 60 ft tree went into a toddlers second floor bedroom in Hingham. Fortunately, family was all downstairs

    1. Saw that, pretty large tree.

      Between the windy days this late winter and today, we’ve had a lot of episodes of downed trees.

  262. In some ways this was a typical March storm: Windy, sloppy, and threw every kind of precipitation type at us, with significant variation in snow amounts across the region. It’s been an interesting and quite wintry month thus far. We’ve had two arctic blasts with associated snow squalls, one minor snow event, one rather intense storm system that delivered hefty amounts of snow to the interior, a possible flash freeze tonight, several more January-like cold days on the way, and a few more possible snow makers to watch in the coming 10 days.

  263. One good lesson learned here that I’ll file away is better to stick to low end of range on progressive systems. TK, JMA and SAK were all over that days and days ago.

    1. That is way cool. My son in law put cameras on his office building a while ago and is going to put them on his home. We have an alarm system but I was thinking of cameras just for the wildlife. What is the make and thanks a lot for sharing

      1. It is simply a Nest outdoor camera. We pay $100/year for 10 days worth of storage in the cloud. It also captures motion and sends messages to our phones when someone (or something) steps on the front porch. I’ve captured some amazing video of the UPS guy throwing stuff at the front porch too 🙂

        1. Hahaha. I love our UPS and USPS folks but would love to clobber fedex. Thanks for the info. Not a bad price at all

  265. These are the types of storms i remember (and loathe) as a kid growing up south of Boston. Upfront snow followed by a changeover and eventually rain.

    1. There seemed to be less of them in recent winters, but this was one of them for sure. Meanwhile, my old home (Lowell) got it pretty good.

      1. I think someone tweeted Lawrence wss only place that met blizzard specs…so Lowell had to be close. See how dangerous if was for me to be a twit?

  267. Ace, I also remember many of these kinds of storms from when I was a child growing up in Needham in the 1970s. I’d watch the weather report – could have been Don Kent – and I’d be so disappointed to hear that after some snowfall there would be a changeover to sleet and rain. I didn’t understand it at all, especially because prior to the storm it would be nice and cold and then after the storm the cold would return. I was not a precocious 7 year old so I didn’t grasp these atmospheric changes and their causes.

  268. Joshua, you were correct with the call on lower numbers in the city, well done.

    All in all, it really wasn’t a bad forecast. Given how far away we’ve seen this system coming from, it should be considered much more a forecasting triumph than a setback. Unfortunately, the late shift west, while small in perspective, had very large implications for many millions of people, extending well down the East Coast. And that will leave a number of people unhappy with meteorologists tomorrow, some in SNE perhaps, but especially in the NYC area. As is seemingly always the case, they were right on the razor’s edge of a very sharp snowfall forecast gradient, and the shift west pushed the mix line back just far enough to leave them on the less snowy side, while the forecast had them on the more snowy side.

    1. The Bloomberg business site is talking about it:

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/a-thin-line-between-rain-and-snow-just-tripped-up-forecasters

      And, on a different note, yesterday before the storm hit, the sports radio hosts Dale Arnold and Michael Holley were kidding about meteorological jargon. They mentioned “zonal flow,” “upper level low,” and ” stationary front” among others. They had some fun at our expense (weather crazies). I must say that even though I am a sports addict, too, there’s a lot of jargon in sports that people who don’t know sports cannot possibly understand. For example, “stunts” or “nickel package” or “safety blitz” in football, “suicide squeeze” or “sacrifice bunt” “infield fly rule” in baseball. Even words like “bullpen” are confusing to say the least to someone who doesn’t know baseball.

  269. i went out and drove this evening to go get pizza, that was stupid of me… visibility down to a 1/4 with snow falling lol

  270. The reason BPS cancelled tomorrow is because of exactly what is going outside right now. Many kids are walkers, sidewalks and side street will be a disaster tomorrow. It’s snowing here very lightly. Just enough to make things ugly. So please don’t compare to what it was like 10,20 or 30 years ago. If canceling school stops 1 accident from happening then I am all for it. Call me a snowflake or whatever you want but I agree 100% with schools that are cancelling. It’s a shame people can’t see that, speaks volumes about our society these days.

  271. Btw great job by those that predicted the lower amounts. A mere 25-50 miles clearly made a huge difference. I will learn from this next time, especially for a storm in March. Climo always should play a factor no matter how cold it is.

    Also looking back just 48 hrs ago EURO Eps had a 99.9% probability of 12 + inches region wide. Very telling.

  272. Thanks for the article link above, Joshua. “Uncertainty”. That seems to be the buzz word to come out of today. Uncertainty, and how we express it. Hadi, I just happened to notice your comment about the EPS as I’ve been working on this…

    This subject of uncertainty is something I’d like to, and hope to, dive deeper into, but to take one example: ensemble probabilities. One of our best tools for gauging uncertainty, right? Well, 4 days out from this, the Euro ensembles showed a 70-80% chance of 12″+ of snow from Boston to NYC. 2-3 days out, they indicated a 99.9% probability of 6″+ for much of the region from Boston to NYC. We really never see probabilities that high, that far out. And we see most forecasters seemingly go all in for big snows everywhere in these bullseye regions 4 days out, while failing to account for uncertainty that always exists at those lead times, since our best gauge of uncertainty is telling us what’s coming is highly certain. The problem (IMO) is that the numerical ensemble probabilities of highly anomalous events (i.e., 12″ snow in a 24 hour period) are inherently overestimates in a situation like this. 4 days from a potential storm, can there ever really be a 75% chance of a foot of snow in NYC in mid March? Not in my book, and not every forecaster would necessarily have rated the odds that high (though some probably did) but that’s what the ensemble said. I think those products would be much more useful if they more dynamically incorporated factors like climatology and average model error at given time ranges, instead of just a simple averaging of all the members, which I believe is all they do. I think if you could get a better uncertainty scheme put together based on ensembles, to better parametrize “potential errors” within the modeling, you’d really have a good product for measuring uncertainty.

    1. Ultimately, how we measure, react to, and publicly communicate uncertainty is one of the great challenges for meteorology in the decade plus.

      1. Yes, indeed. In economics uncertainty is also a very important factor. Economists use models which are all subject to uncertainty. To some extent the uncertainty in economic models is even greater than meteorological models because of the role that human behavior and psychology play in determining outcomes.

    2. Here’s the biggest problem, you’re talking about what all of the models showed. as my boss is so fond of saying “If the models were as good as people seem to think they are, there would be no need for meteorologists”. Just because the models were showing those probabilities does not mean that everyone had to forecast those amounts. Certainly TK and I didn’t go as high as the models were showing. I know that the forecasts my company put out were lower than most of the models.

      At my job, we have to forecast for NYC for Bloomberg radio. Since Sunday afternoon, we’d been telling them 8-14″ for NYC, heaviest amounts north and west of the City. They kept questioning why we were much lower than everyone else. Well, guess what? Everyone else busted. Doesn’t mean we’ll get it right every time, but anyone who just followed the models for their forecast is sitting there tonight trying to explain why this storm was a “dud”.

      I’ll step off my soapbox now.

      1. I can’t tell you how many times and how many places in social media I used a version of the quote in your first paragraph during the last few days…

        And you’re 100% correct.

  273. 11 inches total in North Reading. Tree moved from driveway thanks to two great friends, one who owns a large bobcat tractor, who came over and assisted in the removal!

  274. Hadi, I loved the line “Call me a snowflake or whatever you want” (perhaps pun intended?) in reference to the decision to cancel school tomorrow in Boston.

  275. Regarding the Lawrence reporting area being the only one that experienced a blizzard, I think that includes North Reading, because we are part of Lawrence reporting. Or at least I hope it does. 🙂 Very happy with the 11 inches here and for 3-4 hours this afternoon it was the most intense weather I can remember in a long time.

    1. It includes Lawrence Airport and nothing else. It’s not an area. It’s the spot where the criteria for blizzard conditions were observed.

      1. Eh, that’s what I figured. But would anyone ever truly know whether North Reading experienced true blizzard conditions since there is no observation station here?

  276. I had around a 3 hour period here in Billerica that I could not see the blue house which I measured to be about 50 yards from my porch. That is also when most of my snowfall happened About 8 or 9 inches. It happened 12-3ish time frame then it turned to a sleet/snow mix through 5 oclock and then changed to freezing rain/rain/sleet mess. and snow melted about 2 inches….. total snowfall around around 11 inches here in Billerica. Now less as there was compacting.

      1. No Idea of gusts here and now prolonged they were. Also no idea if Lawrence info is accurate, but I said that. We had about 13 inches and could not see neighbors house for a few hours. I don’t think it was as bad as storm a bit ago although weight was significant. Thank heavens for our neighbor who let son in law use his snowblower since ours couldn’t get it done.

        All I know is I completely enjoyed the buildup to the event and the event itself.

  277. Storm totals from the NWS Taunton:
    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

    I must say the 12-18″ forecast worked well for northern CT and central MA.

    BDL broke the record for biggest March snowstorm ever with 15.7″.

    Jackpot though was in eastern Upstate NY where they are still getting hammered with backlash snows. Widespread 20-30″ amounts. My mom has about two feet in Amsterdam, NY, just NW of Albany. It’s been awhile since they’ve had a mega noreaster like this.

  278. The Nam did a great job . When I saw last nights run I had a good feeling . I did not think Boston would see double didget numbers and they did not . It’s all icing up now . Long day & night ahead.

  279. I remember a time when the term “blizzard” did not create such stress.

    Many people don’t actually understand what a blizzard is, and how it is defined, and further, how it is verified.

    And then you have the media, which constantly feeds the false notion that somehow a blizzard has to do with snow amounts. My example: Channel 7 news at 11PM Tuesday: Anchor 1: “Lawrence was the only location to officially experience a blizzard.”
    Anchor 2: “So people there have A LOT of digging out to do.”

    Oh I see. They had an official blizzard, therefore they had more snow than anyone else. Silly me…

    1. It is the pain of being a professional or worse yet a purist. I experience it everyday in my job. 🙁

          1. Maybe we, (the New England public), would have a better understanding of the term blizzard if we experienced ground blizzards here. Then we would understand it was about wind blowing around any kind of snow affecting visibility.

            The TV mets could work on educating the public on this, but I’m not sure their bosses would want to do that as it would take the edge off the excitement.

  281. Ended up with just over a foot of snow…that was one of the hardest cleanups I’ve had to do, the snow was just back breaking…one thing I’ll hope for next winter is a long duration event….this winter produced some decent snows, but all were progressive

  282. My walk to the train this morning is the reason why school was cancelled. There is no way kids should have to walk on what I did this morning. Nearly fell multiple times and I am very fit, agile young guy. So before people question why school was closed come into the city and see for yourself. I am sure in suburbia everything is fine because most kids don’t walk but I can tell you BPS was 100% correct in their decision

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