Tuesday Forecast

49 Comments

8:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 25-29)
Low pressure rides up the East Coast and weakens through Thursday, bringing wet weather in today into Wednesday then lingering cloudiness Thursday. A warmer southwesterly flow arrives at the end of the week through a few showers and thunderstorms may be triggered by a couple passing disturbances.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 42-50. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 50-58, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Highs 58-65 coast, 66-73 interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68 South Coast, 68-75 elsewhere.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late day showers/thunderstorms. Lows 54-61. Highs 65-80, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
Dry, cooler April 30. Episodes of showers but may warm up again before a cool down during the first few days of May.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 5-9)
Pattern looks fairly mild with episodic rain showers from passing disturbances.

49 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Regarding the discussion with Dr S and Philip on yesterday’s blog re the forecasts…

    I find it so odd that 5 is the one that makes it easy for 7 days. When I used to save the maps prior to snow storms, it was channel 5’s that was the most difficult to find.

    It would make sense to do them all in some uniform pattern. If I go looking, I’ll quickly move to the next media source if I cannot find what I want easily.

    Disclaimer …. I rarely go to the media for weather, except for occasional checks re snow amounts. I do run into Eric’s posts on FB and enjoy them but they seem to find me.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    The initial surge of moisture seems to be N&W, however, it looks like there
    is plenty more lurking off shore S and SE of us most likely destined to move
    up eventually.

    I was hoping the Sox would get their game in. Looks a tad iffy at the moment, but
    one never knows. All we need is a 3 hour break in the rain, IF they don’t call it
    before then.

  9. Saturday afternoon is beginning to look interesting in terms of thunderstorms
    and “possible” severe weather. Probably a bit too early in the season for severe, but
    I find some of the parameters interesting just the same.

    Cape

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017042506/108/sbcape.us_ne.png

    Lifted Index

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017042506/108/sbcape.us_ne.png

    Helicity

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017042506/108/srh03.us_ne.png

    Energy Helicity Index

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017042506/108/ehi03.us_ne.png

    Crossover

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017042506/108/crossover.us_ne.png

  11. JPDave I have noticed the past few runs the GFS has been aggressive with the helicity values for that time period you mentioned. Usually the GFS isn’t robust when it comes to helicity.

    1. I Agree, however, the NAM is no great shakes, so there is some model disagreement going on.

      The Euro looks fairly Robust for Friday and nothing doing for Saturday.

      I guess we have some timing issues.

      We shall see what the 12Z runs have to say as we slowly get closer.

  12. The NAM since the upgrade was good with those last few winter storm threats of the season within 36 hours. I am curious how good it is when it comes to severe parameters within 36 hours.

    1. I am curious to see the 12Z Euro. That model is generally conservative
      with the severe parameters and the 0Z run was fairly robust, so we shall see.

      About 3PM or so, we’ll know what it has to say. 😀

  13. NWS not bullish at all. Showery with a few rumbles of thunder is about all they
    have to say at the moment. 😀

  16. The showers that just arrived within the last 10 minutes mean business. Torrential downpours !!!!

    1. It’s finally light rain in the city . Are we still on for rain overnight &first thing tomorrow.

  18. Be curious to see what the 12z EURO shows. As you mentioned before JPDave the EURO was robust for Friday on 0z run.

    1. I don’t have time to post all charts, but this totals totals chart
      summarizes it:

      http://imgur.com/a/m3pNa

      TOTAL TOTALS
      56 Scattered severe storms

      It sure looks like thunderstorms with a few “possible” severe. This is just this run of the Euro. It is not gospel. However, it does stay the course with the
      0Z run for action Friday and NOT Saturday.

      Hmmm

      1. Ah Crap. I copied a table and it would not paste.

        I’ll hand type it in:

        56 Scattered severe storms

        According to this table, the EURO is expecting
        Widely Scattered Severe storms across our area.

        I’ll believe that when I see it.

        1. WTF*(!@#*(&!@*()#&*(!@&#*&!*()@#&*!@&#@*

          Let me try that again:

          <44 Convection Not likely
          44-50 Likely Thunderstorms
          51-52 Isolated Severe
          52-56 Widely Scattered Severe
          56+ Scattered Severe

  19. Don’t place a whole lot of trust in Euro’s severe weather stuff.

    For a model that is pretty damn good at the overall pattern, it pretty much sucks at everything else.

    1. Don’t worry, I am not. Just posting what the Euro was spewing.

      PLUS, is that really coming from the Euro OR is it some goopedy goop
      concoction by the service provider?

      I will say one thing in defense of the Euro. WHEN our good ole boys
      at the Taunton NWS office are looking at severe weather prospects they
      often quote the Total Totals index from the Euro, for whatever crap that is worth.

      IF the NAM and the GFS start zeroing in on severe weather, I get more concerned And of course the SREF and the SPC office. Right now it is a casual interest as I honestly don’t think there is a snow balls chance in hell of seeing severe weather here either Friday or Saturday. But will monitor for changes. 😀

      1. Wind direction will be important. Any component off the water and that pretty much kills it. So even a southwest wind this time of year will significantly limit chances in eastern areas.

              1. Oh yeah, I forgot about ye ole
                August button. Perhaps they add 4 to each month within that algorithm? The guy that runs this site and is in charge of the algorithms whether or not he does it himself, resides in the Mid West.
                He probably has never even seen the ocean. 😀

      1. Here is the NAM sounding data from Pivotal Weather.
        It indicates Severe for very close to Boston. And Marginal Severe
        for Boston. It depends exactly where the mouse was pointing.
        For this post, I had it about over my house in JP or there about, perhaps a tad West of there? Hard to tell.

        http://imgur.com/a/iOF0l

  22. Pretty ho hum April weather continuing this week. A “busy” pattern, but not a particularly impactful one around here. The severe threat will be ramping back up for at least the next 7-10 days in the usual prone locations. Late season snows for a large swath of the Rockies and central US. For us, variable temperatures for the next 10-14 days but averaging on the warm side, with occasional rain chances but excessive rains unlikely, the next two weeks likely averaging near or a bit drier than normal. In short, I agree with TK’s forecast.

    For much of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, a near record warm April is in the cards, and some places will set that record. I think warmest on record is probably out of reach for our area, but we’ll be solidly above average.

      1. But here’s the issue with that: the newscasts are close together and these are made within a three hour window. (Because they both have an afternoon forecast with a different ten day that includes the day of). Then I look at the Saturday swing… Hmmm

  24. 18Z Sounding from Pivotal weather for the immediate Boston Area for Saturday.

    Note: I have noticed that Pivotal, for whatever reason, is overly aggressive
    with the severe weather outlooks on these soundings. Do NOT be alarmed.
    I am posting to share what is out there.

    http://imgur.com/a/tMaDI

  25. Updated thoughts as of early evening…
    Tonight: Waves of rain, embedded heavier showers.
    Wednesday: A more showery nature but still fairly widespread to start, then diminishing in coverage. If a rumble of thunder occurs it will most likely be somewhere in the 4AM-9AM window.
    Thursday: Cloudy. Just…cloudy.
    Friday: Don’t expect much sun. Also think slightly faster timing for whatever kind of front you want to call what’s coming. It’s likely more of a trough, not so much an airmass change. I may take thunder out of the forecast based on more cloudcover and sooner timing. Will re-evaluate tonight.
    Saturday: Summer preview. Front coming along late-day may not have much to work with, however, so just a risk of a shower/storm.
    Sunday: 50s coast, 60s interior, dry, but not sure how much sun just yet.

    1. Perfect. Thanks TK. The Mason begins work on the patio Thursday. You did great arranging for no rain.

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