Friday Forecast

121 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)
Warm front crosses the region today, and humidity increases. Cold front slowly sags through the region tonight and Saturday and some of the moisture from the former TS Cindy comes along it and enhances shower activity. This should clear the region later Saturday and set up a drier Sunday. A broad trough moves into the region early in the week with a cooling trend and some threat of showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms though much of the time will be rain-free. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-81 coast, 82-87 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Showers likely, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-71. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, tapering off during the afternoon from west to east. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
A broad trough moves through the region during the first part of the period with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms favoring June 27-28. Drier weather follows as the trough moves to the east. Temperatures near to below normal through mid period, then warming up.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)
Progressive flow should continue but with a little more of a broad ridge moving in, with limited shower chances and temperatures near to above normal.

121 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Seems like everyone has various forecasts for tomorrow from cloudy , to light rain , heavy rain to just a chance of pop up storms .

    1. I’m sticking with the forecast that matters and that is right here. Youngest daughter commented this am that her weather app had said Sunday would be fine all along. I explained it was never certain but it went with what it had and turned out to be correct. She asked me what tomorrow would be. I suggested she look at her weather app 🙂 🙂 🙂 I am a bad, bad mom 😉

    1. Yup, more East once again. Doesn’t matter, no severe weather in Eastern
      sections regardless. How much rain is the question.

      Waiting on those 12Z runs. I am getting the hint that the bulk of the rain
      “may” stay South of the Boston area. We shall see.

      1. I think isolated strong storm in the marginal risk area. Heavy rain the bigger thing here. I would have the marginal risk northern parts of NJ lower Hudson Valley of NY where looking at the guidance has the best shot at strong severe storm.

      2. I’ll throw another theory out there. 🙂 🙂

        The thunderstorm threat shifting slightly west represents a slightly stronger Atlantic ridge and further west trof that will allow cindy’s rains to come even further north and west.

        1. Ah, but it shifted East again.

          The previous outlook had it farther West, but this
          morning has it more East again.

          1. Upton, NY was mentioning in their discussion this morning an MCS type system with isolated wind tornado threat with one of this low CAPE high shear helicity low LCL environment but did note the 6z guidance has shifted it south of the area. Keep shifting it south since that is a little too close for my comfort where I am.

  10. Hanover Day tomorrow with Fireworks at night. Might be dodging some rain drops or swimming in puddles.

  11. 12z NAM bullseye continues to be NYC area. However there are some helicity values supercell composite values being indicated for western parts of the marginal risk area in SNE tonight.

      2. Don’t like that my area of CT has that red shading.
        Helicity looks good on 12z NAM especially NYC area to support rotating storm.

  13. That was one warm front that had NO trouble pushing through…

    …Must be summer now! 😉

    1. Guess so. Seems to make a difference.

      Now will there be action?

      How wet will it get?

      I am leaning perhaps not so much. We shall see.

    2. I was thinking the same thing earlier, made it rather uneventful. Instead, plenty of instability to tap now.

    1. Keep it away for the rest of the summer AFAIC. We have more than enough ground water now…drought not likely to return any time soon. Of course a warm, wet summer is predicted.

    1. It is very warm out too ! 88F all of a sudden at Logan. Oppressive, but the wind does help a bit.

    1. Wind was crazy for a short period of time and a touch of rain but it went by us. Clouds still building though.

  17. Getting dark in Sudbury. Doppler radar shows some showers that just popped up south of us and moving northeast.

      1. Uxbridge – about 5 miles from here – had a torrential downpour. We just had a bit harder shower but I couldn’t see anything over us on radar. Crazy day. We had grub stuff put down yesterday so I want it to pour for along time to water it in.

  18. The southern portion of that storm complex just bowed out really quickly. Looks like some strong winds under that area.

    1. Is that the area right around Dover? I’m asking so I can learn to see what you are referring to. Thank you!

        1. Cool….I saw it happen and with your help knew what it was. Thanks greatly for your help. I wonder if we had the same happen as the line passed over here. The wind was brutal but just for a few minutes

  20. Very windy now – raining, at times heavy. But brightening up to west a bit. Sky looks really neat – summer is here! And so is the humidity. 🙁

  21. Sun is out in Sudbury and raining lightly – so I can say – rainshine!

    I have to say that every summer when it does that.

  22. It’s really neat to watch these storms jump up in intensity as they hit the boundaries. The storms in Northeastern Mass just intensified as they hit what looks like a sea breeze front. There’s also something in between 95 and 495 that intensified the big cells. They are both pretty visible on the COD Nexlab radar.

  23. I can hear thunder to the east. Storms really popped up and grew and moved fast. Wonder if more will come this aft.

  24. FIGURES!

    That storm just ripped off to the Northeast and pretty much missed me to the North.
    Few drops is about it.

  27. Wow! We got absolutely crushed in Wilmington. Pounding sheets of torrential rain, heavier than I’ve seen in quite a while. At it’s peak there were some very solid gusts as well. Definitely more severe than any storm I’ve seen warned before. Also wondering why they haven’t issued a flash flood warning with this, because the amount of ponding on my street is the highest I have ever seen after a storm. I’m 100% sure the major flood spots in town are flooded at this point.

    2. Rain came down hard enough that it took a ton of mulch away with it. That stuff had previously been there for 5 years!

  28. Sometime between 1 and 2 pm, it appears Logan touched 90F, which would be day # 7. Based on model trend, perhaps June 30 is a potential 90F day.

    Either way, 7 or 8 days is a big number headed to July 1st.

  30. I wonder if those thunderstorms were the result of the sun coming out around noon, and the temps soared above the convective temp and with the tropical humidity in place ……. whammo !

    1. SPC discussion did say: “250-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present as of 18Z owing to the previously mentioned diurnal heating and moist low-level airmass.”

      2. Yep, 1000 or more of MLCAPE, just under 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE, LI values of -3 to -4(this localized pocket is where the storms fired, rest of the area was at -2). Low level lapse rates were solid, though I’m not sure what that would indicate. Not much in the way of shear.

  32. WHW account will be back in a few min…

    The 2PM storm produce a swath of tree damage over about a 2 mile area including on Woods Hill. Branches of 10 to 20 feet and a large limb of about 35 feet came down (the largest being 150 yards away from my location). NWS was notified.

    1. It sure looked to pass through Woburn. Any idea of wind speeds?

      Sounds like at least 50 mph, perhaps more.

  34. HMMM,

    THE NAMs and the RAP want to keep the main action to the South of us tonight,
    while the HRRR is advertising some pretty hefty rains.

    NWS office at Taunton appears to be going with the HRRR.

    We shall see.

  35. NWS Taunton for tonight
    One thing to watch for is the potential for a
    quick spin-up thanks to the Tropical airmass with 70F dewpoints and
    lower LCLs. Hodographs do show some helicity and good 0-1 km shear.

  36. 87 with 67 DP here. Some blue sky with huge billowing white. clouds. Much darker clouds moving in to SW of Sutton.

  37. Its low probability but not zero. Better instability for a spin up looks to be NYC area.

  39. Tomorrow …..

    IF the sun comes out early enough, the humidity will be lowering and some component of a west wind will be blowing. I saw an awful lot of 88F projections on Barry’s temp map for tomorrow.

    90F at Logan won’t surprise me tomorrow and then again, possibly one week from today. Could it be 9 (90F) days by the end of June ?

  40. Hi all! WHW is back…

    Wind gusts here were approximately 50 MPH, possibly 55 MPH or slightly greater in a few isolated locations where the whole trees came down. Rob Macedo, Skywarn Amateur Radio Coordinator with NWS sent me a radar wind profile that shows what looks like a weak to moderate downburst passing right over my area at 2:03PM, which was the time the damage occurred around here. The NWS is going to use some of the pictures I took this afternoon showing the tree damage. Nothing overwhelming in my pics, but a nice representation of what happened around here.

    For tonight I think we will have to watch for isolated cells or small clusters of them. I don’t think we’re going to see widespread activity tonight, at least initially. I’m not expecting storms with prolific lightning production, but we’ll have to watch for some cells with possible low level rotation, very heavy rain, and otherwise gusty winds (rotation or not).

    I’m a bit conflicted on the timing of the heaviest stuff tomorrow, but I’m leaning toward after 9AM for eastern MA and RI, earlier to the west.

      1. No reason not to post that. People like to read your thoughts, myself included!

    2. Regardless if it’s heavy or not Afternoon should be fine to work . A lot of money on the table tomorrow.

      1. Hoping so. As long as we don’t get one more flare up of showers along a leftover boundary. That’s not out of the question.

  41. Great call by the NWS to put a warning on that storm earlier. Reflectivity signature wasn’t too impressive but it had an impressive wind core.

    I’m watching for the possibility of some showers/storms tonight, especially first half of the overnight but a chance any time. Best chance of those will be to the west. Beyond that, I’m watching mid-morning potentially through early afternoon tomorrow during which time we may see a band of torrential rainfall move through associated directly with Cindy’s remnants. Best chance of that looks to be south of the Pike. That’s a bit of a wildcard, as the models do not agree on how impressive that band will be. Given the air mass though, I think things could get interesting for a time when that moves through.

  42. Anyone outside or near an open window should have noticed the dew points (in most of the area) drop 5 to 7 degrees over the last few hours. It’s temporary though, they’re already turning around and going back up…

    1. Is that in eastern MA? DP here is 67. I checked a few stations nearby and they are about the same or a bit higher

      1. Going back up now. DP’s went from 70-72 down to about 65-67. Still humid, but a noticeable drop.

        1. We might have been lower all day as we have been hovering around 67. We are still 69 now so def going up. Even at 67 you could cut the air with a knife

  43. Rain that was over much of CT earlier this morning has suddenly gone POOF!

    Dave Epstein sounded the alarm about a lot heading for Boston, but not so sure now.

        2. That would be why. 😉

          No, as Dave said the NYC went down. If a giant area of rain vanishes in one frame…it’s not real.

  45. Tk any update for down here . It’s pouring here now but parts of sky look to be getting brighter .

  48. Good morning,

    Nothing here yet, but it does look as though Boston will catch the Northern edge
    of this big slug of precipitation. Does not look like rain totals will be nearly as heavy as
    areas to the South who look to get a soaker, unless of course somehow this thing expands some.

    I do not see any rotation anywhere at this time.

    1. On second look, perhaps some broad rotation over Long Island, NY.
      Can’t be sure on that.

  50. Raining in Wrentham, but it’s only been light to moderate. Heavy rain axis well to the south.

    Likely at least one, possibly more tornadoes in New Jersey earlier this morning.

  55. I find it interesting to watch the radar this morning ….

    I interpret that Cindy’s remnant moisture and the cold front have continued to stay separate features.

    The Cape has stayed rather dry with the plume of moisture going mostly between Boston and the cape cod bridges.

    Those 2 thin lines of precip in central and western Mass …. The western one, the actual cold front I believe, is sinking south and east. But the small line north of Springfield is kind of meandering.

    1. Oh and Nantucket and the vineyard ….. Going to get hit by those strong radar features exiting Long Island.

  56. Raining moderately in Sudbury now. Very calm but tropical feel to the air. At this time, looks like heaviest rain will be to south unless it moves more north.

  57. I am not suggesting a tornado here, but doesn’t this radial velocity display
    show a pretty well defined mesoscyclone? The orange color echoes are moving towards
    the radar at Taunton, while the greens are moving away. That would have to tighten
    up considerably before we would have a tornado threat.

    http://imgur.com/a/0sS5O

    Thoughts?

    1. Wait a minute!!! Now if that were the case, it wouldn’t be anti-cyclonic.
      Does that make sense? Maybe it’s the orange moving away and the green towards.

      Did I have a brain freeze. I think I’ll go back to bed??????????????????????

      1. Ok, I looked it up.

        Precipitation moving toward the radar has negative velocity (blues and greens). Precipitation moving away from the radar has positive velocity (yellows and oranges). Precipitation moving perpendicular to the radar beam (in a circle around the radar) will have a radial velocity of zero, and will be colored grey. The velocity is given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

        So the oranges are moving away and the greens are moving towards the radar site at Taunton.

        1. I believe WxWatcher noted above that there’s a possibility there was one and maybe more tornadoes in NJ this morning. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if above in the clouds, there continues to be rotation within these storms.

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