Sunday Forecast

84 Comments

10:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)
No significant changes on this short update. Will basically press repeat on the discussion to remind you of the mostly nice weather but cooling trend as a broad trough moves through during the next several days. This trough will carry a few disturbances in it, but generally will ignite diurnal clouds and the risk of isolated showers. A more potent disturbance Tuesday night into early Wednesday may bring a more organized round of showers, based on current timing. This trough should be beyond the region by Thursday with a flat ridge moving in resulting in fair and much warmer weather. Will re-evaluate again and a more comprehensive outlook for the last 5 days of June and the “July 4th Weekend” will be on the next update.
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny with a slight risk of isolated showers afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers mainly at night. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with showers, then partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s except some 70s coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)
A zonal (west to east) flow dominates. A disturbance somewhere around the middle of the period may bring a few showers/thunderstorms otherwise expected mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)
A similar pattern is expected to continue during this period as well.

84 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Remember the first week of June when the monthly temp anomaly at Logan was close to -5F ?

    Since then, there was a 92F, 95F and 95F heatwave.

    And since June 18th, it’s been ….. 84F, 85F, 86F, 84F, 84F, 90F, 88F and 88F which has brought the monthly temp anomaly to ……

    +2.4 F

    1. Very interesting and thank you.

      Howver, the damage was done.

      Here we sit at 6/25 and the ocean temp (Boston Buoy 16 NM East of Boston)
      is: Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.2 °F

      That is freakin FREEZING!!!!)(@&#&!*(@#*!@&(#*&!@(*#&(*!@&#*(\
      (I don’t want to hear that freezing is 32!)

      1. Lol ….

        We haven’t had a lot of seabreeze days or light gradient days where the top layer of water doesn’t get too mixed up. We’ve had a lot of breezy days where the ocean is being mixed and the offshore breeze has encouraged upwelling.

        If the pattern changes to one featuring lighter winds and more seabreezes, hopefully that will encourage a rapid warming of the shallow layer of water. It has indeed been cold water at the beach.

        1. Sure, but add to that the we started June with
          already below average SSTs.

          Oh well, at least the weather is nice.

      1. I love the HRRR simulations …..

        Looking at the water vapor loop, I’d think we’re too far from the dynamics, but we’re a lot closer to the south coast seabreeze convergence and perhaps that, combined with being on the southern edge of the dynamics is enough to develop a southern New England thunderstorm.

        1. Often times the HRRR is whacked out on these convective
          radar simulations. We shall see later on.

          Watch it be gone with the next model run. 😀

  6. Thanks TK. GOES-16 showing the crystal clear skies over most of us now, and the cumulus field developing to our west which will breed scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder, best chance from Worcester westward. There was a very photogenic cirrus band which moved just northwest of me earlier which shows up on the loop as well.

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=newengland-02-24-1

    2. Thanks Wx

      And west of Worcester sounds good. We have a bounce house set up for an evening bday party and I don’t think rain and lightening we invited. Not this time anyway

  9. Will see if the GFS pans out for Friday and Saturday as it has shown for a few runs including 12z more than enough instability for thunderstorm development.

  11. I agree long way to go. Just something to watch.
    The discussion from Taunton yesterday afternoon that Kane posted for the late week time period I thought was pretty strong wording considering its that far out. I could understand wording like that 24-36 hour prior but not for this far out in the future.

      1. Not much expected in the lightning department. Just some showers with a few cores of heavy rain and small hail. Maybe a few strikes briefly when each cell matures.

        1. Looks as if you are right. Some closing in now. Was hoping it would fall apart. Everyone arrives at 4:00 but outside is all set up

          1. very very very close, eh? Hopefully a few drops and you’re done. Hope you don’t get the down pour.

            1. It so far is shrinking in its south side which is the side we are on. Keep your fingers crossed please

  13. I love it when the Canadian model shows really wet weather for days I have a lot of outdoor plans. That’s how I know it’s going to be mostly dry. 😀

  14. TK, HRRR shows more shower activity this evening and then more late tonight early tomorrow AM. Is that for real?

  15. For the Ohio Valley, interior parts of the southeast and perhaps additional areas of the central US, it hasn’t really been a hot June. I seem to recall past recent late June’s where a 500 mb ridge had been established and 90s and 100’s were widespread. Today, it’s 70s and 80s.

    Well, maybe it’s just one run and it will disappear …. The 12z op run of the EURO around days 9 and 10 develops an impressive ridge in the aforementioned places and sends very high 850mb temps northward through the Great Lakes, seemingly pointed towards New England.

    So, I’m looking forward in the next few days to see if this ends up being an outlier idea of a trend and if starts moving forward towards the medium range outlook of days 5 thru 7.

  16. Very little in the way of thunder, but shower coverage is a little better than I expected this afternoon. Lapse rates getting it done.

  18. So most of you know my hobby is long distance radio listening. I dx (the hobby term) the FM band, AM band, Shortwave, longwave, scanner radio..you name it and I’ll try to dx it 🙂 (I used to dx TV but with the advent of HD TV and the narrowing of the UHF band it isn’t as much fun) The summer is usually the time for me to dx FM radio. There are two main types of propagation….Trop enhancement/ducting and E skip (here are links explaining both https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropospheric_propagation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sporadic_E_propagation. Well today if any of you were listening to your FM radios between 2 and 3pm you might have wondered why the band sounded weird or why there were stations where there shouldn’t have been some. That’s because there was a decent Eskip opening in progress. I heard FM stations from Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, etc. I recorded the whole opening and the whole FM band with a fairly new tool to dxers…Software Defined Radios…which are capable of capturing large parts of the radio spectrum. While Tropo propagation is definitely anchored to weather conditions we don’t know as much about Eskip. One theory is that Thunderstorms could be a trigger in the upper atmosphere…In fact TStorms often seem to be at either of the two endpoints or sometimes in the middle. I’ll try to post some recordings later as I review the SDR recordings.

    1. Cool stuff! Wish I knew more about radio, don’t have much experience with them since the Internet is the dominant form of entertainment now.

  19. I cannot believe that missed us. It shrunk south to north and literallysat on top of our location with a straight bottom line. We had sun over us and dark clouds in all sides

    I’d say Mac has joined his first grandsons party 🙂

  20. On a radar, what does it mean when you reduce clutter. What is clutter. Thank you. And I probably should know this huh?

    Also what the heck is due south of Sutton. The sky is scary dark

    1. Clutter is basically any unwanted radar target. Non-weather related things that the radar beam hits or that it interprets incorrectly due to the rate it sends out pulses and how those pulses interact. Filters have been developed that can identify and remove most such things. But it’s a surprisingly complicated topic. Using the filters is a good idea though.

      Hope this helps, and hope the party goes well!

  21. Glad it stayed dry for you Vicki!

    There’s definitely some wind with those showers and their outflow. We stayed dry as well here but the wind just picked up, a couple gusts probably around 30mph.

  22. It did not miss us here in Coventry, CT. Just had torrential rain and wind and still raining. Picked up a half an inch of rain in about 20 min! Did not see lightning or hear any thunder.

  23. The dark clouds I mentioned earlier resulted in a quick sprinkle which just barely wet the ground and pavement.

  24. Red Sox lose again. We were really in a position to make the Yankees pay for their 7-game skid. 🙁

  25. Thanks tk, I am actually already in the NESC group and I enjoy your discussions there as well! And here of course:)

    I know it’s a little early but do you have a general idea what your thoughts are for next week? Do you think this event will be our first real severe weather?

    1. Cool! You may have told me but I talk to so many people I don’t even remember half the time. 😉

      I’m not sure how next week plays out quite yet. I don’t have a feel for anything beyond Wednesday, but my gut feeling tells me we may have to keep an eye on something around Friday.

  26. Last night I attended Tears For Fears / Hall & Oates at the TD Garden. What a great show! I love both. But honestly, TFF was better. They have better songs and had better sound. H&O are legends though and they have earned their place deep in music history. But TFF was so spot on it almost sounded like you were listening to the records. Their cover of Radiohead’s “Creep” was off the chain.

    And since I love music so much, I’m off to see Toto in Derry NH right now. If I’m awake enough I’ll post tomorrow morning’s blog update before I crash tonight. 🙂

    1. I wanted to go but it wasn’t meant to be. Saw TFF back in 90 or 91 and they were great!! One of the best TFF songs (non hit) is the Working Hour…Sounds great Live

  27. This is kind of a random question, but does anyone know the typical inch per hour rainfall rate in a thunderstorm around here?

        1. Glad to see the showers pushing past the U2 concert at Gillette, which my wife and sister-in-law are at and starts in an hour or 2.

  29. Are we possibly due for another storm or will that line in western MA fizzle as the sun sets?

    1. Still hanging in there ….. I thought without the heating of the sun, they would fall apart.

      1. Definitely a boundary helping to sustain them as there are S and SW winds ahead of them and NW behind them.

        1. I thought they’d fall apart too. They seem to weaken slightly and then get a bit stronger. The southern tip is drying up. Figures. Now I’d love a good storm :).

  30. Wind gusts of 30-35mph accompanying those showers and storms moving over Worcester now. There’s been more in the way of lightning with this activity also.

    1. Hmmm. Guess I’ll pull the umbrella down. Of course if I do that will ensure we get nothing.

  31. I missed the showers today as I was in between to areas of showers. Glad the rain did not interfere with a thrilling finish at The Travelers in Cromwell, CT as Jordan Spieth holed a bunker shot on the first hole of a playoff for his 10th career win. Its funny his first career win was in a playoff and he also holed a bunker shot at the John Deere Classic for the win.
    Anyway keeping an eye on Friday Saturday time period for potential thunderstorms.

      1. Could it be a shooting star? I knew I saw it thru the phone but was surprised to see it in the picture

  33. Per channel 5 radar …..

    Mass Pike north, shower intensity has lessened.

    But the southwest end of the line has some additional cells firing ….

    1. Cells cover southwest part of Worcester, another hitting Warren and the most intense one looks to be over Springfield and Agawam.

        1. I think you may see some rain. There’s one cell just to your northwest that may clip you and there’s another to your west southwest that may come through in 20 minutes ????

          1. I’m leaving bedroom window open. I have been watching them. Fingers crossed. I think thunder is fitting tonight.

  34. DP must have just dropped big time as the storms rolled through. We didn’t get any rain but the air mass is very comfortable.

  35. Taunton radar picked a bad time to go down… 😛

    Amazing show tonight!
    On at 7:00 on the dot.
    Finished at 9:00 on the dot.
    No opening act. Amazing performance.
    If you are friends with me on FB I’ll be posting many videos of it in the next few days. 🙂

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