Monday Forecast

71 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)
Cool and unsettled weather starts the week as a significant disturbance rides along a boundary near the New England South Coast. Plentiful moisture and good focus for it may result in a band of heavy rain, potentially leading to some flooding somewhere near the South Coast during the day today. It will continue cool and unsettled Tuesday as elongated low pressure hangs around to the south. High pressure builds in Wednesday with nice weather returning, including a warming trend which will last through Thursday. The next disturbance may be quite potent and is expected to arrive Friday with a shower/thunderstorm risk.
TODAY: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times especially South Coast. Temperatures fall slowly then steady 58-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast with a few higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy light rain. Lows 56-63. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind light NW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms at night. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)
Improving weather July 29 and fair, warm weather July 30-31. Shower and thunderstorm threat and high humidity the first couple days of August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)
Fair and a little drier early in the period then humidity increases and shower and thunderstorm threat returns.

71 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK! Unlike a few weeks ago, radar trends this morning suggest the heaviest rain today will stay offshore, perhaps clipping Nantucket. Still a cool, wet day, but my concerns over flooding have eased. Lots of flooding in the mid-Atlantic yesterday; the potential was certainly there for us, but it looks like we’ve dodged the worst of it.

    The Euro sure is hyped up for Friday. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if that disturbance as well ends up with most of its heavy weather to our south.

    1. I love days like this, including at the beach. It is one of those cozy up, relax, watch the waves and wait to see how close the high tide gets to the house kind of days.

      1. Yes –I am over the moon when it comes to cloudy, cool, even rainy days at the beach. You have it all to yourself (or selves) 🙂 🙂

  7. I don’t mind the 1 or 2 day break from summer sun and heat. I always like the changes in weather – makes it so interesting.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I have to give a presentation today. I HATE that, but I guess I’ll get through it, I always do. 😀 I wish it could be about weather, but sadly it is about our phone system and how
    we will be deploying mobile devices to staff.

    I won’t be dropping in until sometime after 1PM. (or perhaps a bit before 9:30 as I
    have to go across the street for the All Staff meeting) 😀

  9. Really racking up the rain totals this morning.

    Up to a whopping 0.06 inch at my house in JP. Was 0.01 at 8AM when I left the house.

  10. This sucks when you pay all this money for a cottage & you get rain & fall like temperatures. Oh yay Wednesday & Thursday warm only .

      1. Sorry you aren’t having great weather for your vacation SSK. I hope you can find something fun to do despite the cool rain. It still beats working. 🙂

    2. Sorry about your trip and this weather. For those like you who are on vacation this weather is lousy. But when home/working it’s not so bad. Try to enjoy your vacation anyway and the better weather Weds. and Thurs. if you can.

  11. Vicki – I saw a post on a Plymouth Facebook page about the rough seas yesterday. I know we discussed this at dinner last night and apparently there was a whale watch boat that hit rough seas and had to turn around and head back to shore. The majority of the passengers were getting sick and the afternoon whale watches were cancelled.

    1. Wow. Interesting, Sue. Thanks. There were about a dozen larger sail boats out yesterday am but not one had its sails up

  14. Thanks TK.
    Don’t mind a rainy day. Its a nice break from the heat and humidity. I love the forecast for Wednesday.
    You got my attention TK for Friday when you said that disturbance could be quite potent. Could there be some strong to severe storms with that Friday thunder threat?

  15. Ive been sitting on the deck watching the waves. They are awesome. So is the wind. Flags are straight out. It is just high tide now but it’ll keep coming up for a bit. The ocean is about 8-10 feet from deck. I know many don’t like this at the ocean but I absolutely love it and the raw power of the ocean.

  16. We just got back to the visitor center at Flume Gorge. We planned a head and brought rain gear for the hike. The hikers with us ranged from 2 to 72 years old and all had a great time. Steady rain most of the time and very cool temps.

  17. wow, it was raining buckets just a bit ago here at the office in Boston.
    Still raining pretty hard.

    0.64 inch so far at my house in JP.

    Nice soaking for the lawns and shrubs. 😀

      1. It went much better than could possibly have been expected.
        Thank you for asking.

        I am NOT one for public speaking, believe me, but I surprised myself. 😀

        1. I’m not surprised you did well but am right there with you for not being a fan of public speaking. !!

  18. Great forecast, TK. You nailed it. An autumn soaker in July. The rain doesn’t feel summer-like.

    The red-winged blackbirds are early migrants. That is, they arrive early. In some cases as early as the last week of February, which this year turned out to be the warmest week of the winter and was soon followed by a long stretch of relatively cold temperatures and some snow. Red-winged blackbirds also return to southern climes as early as the first week of September. Now, I am NOT going to say that they’re flying to Mexico or elsewhere soon, but a week or two of this unsettled, cool weather and they’ll move up their flight plans, regardless of the change fees.

    1. Hi Joshua. You are right…an autumn day in July. Nothing uncommon and fun though.

      I have become a nonfan of the red wing blackbirds. They are pretty birds but they chase the smaller birds from my feeders. Although, they are not as bad as the blue jays.

  19. Up to 0.77 inch at home in JP so far. Still coming down at a decent clip and it looks
    like more keeps bubbling up. A real SOAKER!

    And I concur with Tom. Tk’s forecast was spot on, as per usual.

  20. 12z EURO at 96 hrs

    Just looking at a surface map, 500mb map and 850 mb map

    996 mb low in central New England with an impressive 500 mb feature and a decent 850 mb jet. Rather anomalous for July and my guess is anywhere just south of the surface low would have thunderstorm potential.

    1. Tom, I checked out the severe threat from my Euro service.
      Please keep in mind this display is their own propriety threat forecast
      based on their own algorithm. I make no claim as to it’s accuracy as I am just posting it to confirm your thinking fwiw.

      http://imgur.com/a/TbSk1

        1. This is what the developer of that index has to say FWIW:

          The APRWX Tornado Index is reliant on the APRWX Severe Index. It does this because it first has to assume severe weather is even going to happen. This is an “attempt” that I think is good because you constrain your tornado chances by areas that are first defined as having a severe threat. The Sig. Tor index does not do this.

          There are some 40 parameters that go into the APRWX Severe index, which is trying to put my conceptual method for forecasting severe weather into an index.

          THEN, once we have relied on the APRWX Severe Index to say… yes… severe weather is likely in this location, then the APRWX Tornado Index moves forward and looks at:

          CAPE
          6km Shear
          LCL Heights
          Storm Inflow
          1km Helicity
          VGP
          Shear available to tilt the updraft
          and any cold core parameters that may exist.

          I’m biased, but I think the APRWX Tornado Parameter is better, however it’s going to be much more picky about when it’s showing any tornado risks, and on those marginal or unexpected days it’s not going to perform well.

  21. About to get drenched some more in the City.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.39565217391304347&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=377.2527472527472&centery=280.4395604395604&transx=-22.747252747252787&transy=40.43956043956041&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25015352&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    0.86 at my house in JP so far and still counting.

  23. From reading the comments about the 12 EURO I could see why TK said that disturbance on Friday could be quite potent in the discussion.

  25. 58.8 DEGREEES at my house in JP. Is it really 7/24????

    Also, 1.24 inches of rain and it’s still coming down decently, despite only
    green on the radar.

    btw, what is the maximum low high temp for Boston today? And did midnight
    wreck it? Currently 57 at the airport. 57 !*@*(#&!@*(#&*(!@&*(&!#&

    1. High temperature at my house in JP occurred at 5:30 AM today and was
      64.8 Degrees. Which means it is very possible Logan broke or tied
      the low high temperature record for today (assuming it doesn’t rise above it just prior to midnight). Anyone know?

  26. One last slug of pretty heavy rain about to reach Boston before the back end of precipitation.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5152173913043478&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=399.0295358649789&centery=240.97046413502113&transx=-0.970464135021075&transy=0.9704641350211318&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25015450&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. JpDave, is it possible your using the last 3 digits of sea level pressure in inches, because I’m seeing different measures of pressure in mb. 🙂 🙂

          1. btw, my weather app reports current Hyannis
            reading at: 1008 mb which seems much
            more realistic.

            1. Thanks. Yeah, I think the first link has the last 3 digits of the pressure in inches, that’s interesting. I was just curious 🙂 🙂 and 1008mb is what I’m seeing too for Hyannis 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

              1. If there were truly a 12mb gradient between Hyannis and Boston, we’d have sustained 40-50 mph winds across all of SE Mass right now.

                1. And we might be looking for the rain/snow line somewhere north of here. 😛

                2. Welllllll the chairs are all over on the deck or have blown off the deck and down the street and the girls keep saying they see snow 🙂 🙂 🙂

                  SAK thanks for the info today and your report link. I enjoyed the read….especially since a little birdie had told me some about the increase in pacific activity. Very timely

  27. Mt. Washington summit is reporting 34F and rain. This event was only a few degrees from being a snow producer on top of the mountain. Lakes of the Clouds Hut will be a very cold shelter this evening. Hopefully, hikers have brought proper gear. I’ve stayed there in July when it was in the low 40s, but not low 30s.

  28. And yes, TK loved the intro to the Storm HQ tropical blog. Great song choice. 🙂 Just listened to a bunch of his stuff this past weekend.

  29. On this event today, judged against my own expectations, it rained a lot less on the south coast and a lot more from northern Mass points northward than I thought it would.

    After the first batch of heavy rain missed to the southeast, it was neat to watch a second batch develop and work its way through the region.

  30. Think Boston’s rainfall was good? A place in India called Mount Abu has just recorded about 59.3″ of rain in just the last 2 days!

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