Sunday Forecast

87 Comments

8:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)
The final four official days of autumn and the day of the winter solstice is covered in this 5-day segment and will present weather fairly typical of this time of year for the type of pattern we’re in, starting with cold high pressure in control today and nice weather, a warm front approaching the region tonight and Monday with some spotty light frozen and freezing precipitation, i.e. snow and possibly freezing drizzle, a passing of the warm front with a milder push of air Monday night and Tuesday, before a cold front arrives with a rain shower risk later Tuesday and returns a December chill, along with wind and the risk of a snow shower for the final day of astronomical autumn on Wednesday. Solstice day will be much like today, dry and cold with high pressure in control. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow, with trace amounts to coatings possible, and a slight risk of freezing drizzle with very minor icing on untreated surfaces. Highs 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW late.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day rain shower. Highs 42-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s but falling later in the day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)
As high pressure ridging tries to build over the US Southeast and very cold air tries to send progressive troughs across the Northeast, the battle zone will set up and periods of unsettled weather will result. There is low confidence in trying to do anything more than generalize this far out in this pattern. Current leaning is for a light snow/mix/rain episode December 22 and a few rain showers December 23, then another precipitation risk during the December 24-26 period. That does not mean all 3 days will be unsettled. It means we need to watch the period right around Christmas for possible impact from another low pressure system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)
Look for the same general pattern to continue but with a tendency for colder weather to win out.

87 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Tk Thank you.

    And regarding your last response on the previous blog, I did notice
    that the SE was totally different than previous runs. So, I hear you
    big time.

    I continue to watch to see if the models catch on. We shall see.

    And yes, I know, a chance is a chance is a chance and it not a certainty. 😀

  3. Thanks Tk that’s what I was thinking towards weeks end we have chances on something. It’s going to be a battle with the warm & cold air.

  7. Thanks JPD for the Bob Copeland and Don Kent articles! 🙂

    As for Bob Copeland I do very vaguely remember him on WBZ so was he primarily on weekends, weeknights or even both?

      1. I can’t even remember who used to be on Weeknights. Could have been him at least for a period of time?? I dunno.

        I know Don Kent had the mornings and noon hour.

        I also think that Bob Copeland moved to channel 5 and that
        is where he may have been weeknights for a period.

  9. I his day, Bob Copeland was ABSOLUTELY the best met around. I mean superior!
    However, occasionally he would “mail” it in and these days that would mean
    a rip and read from a model. When he put forth the effort he was deadly accurate.
    I remember watching him and would “know” when he was mailing it in or giving an honest effort. Honestly, Even back then I could tell the difference.

    1. Those were the days. I am glad that I was born just in time (1960) to remember those original Boston tv mets. This younger generation of mets will never come close other than TK and SAK. 🙂

  11. The one thing I notice the last few runs is a more amplified pattern. This is resulting in the very cold plunge of air to now be targeting the upper Midwest, as opposed to southeast Canada. The SE ridge seems to be projected to expand further northwestward than a couple days ago and thus, that large temp contrast, instead of being just south of New England, may end up lying just north and west of us around or just before Christmas Day.

      1. Well, technically not cutter 🙂

        But, the ripples along the temp contrast would be to our north and west and not south and east.

        The sensible weather though is the same, being on the milder side of the temp contrast.

  13. I just saw UGH!!!! Looking on the bright side we know this will change.
    Snowfall so far from a few locations.
    BOS 6.1
    BDL 6.3
    NYC 6.8
    PHI 7.7

  15. Thank you, TK!

    I really hope Tom’s points above on the more amplified pattern, SE ridge closer to us and battlezone moving to our north and west does not happen. But, Tom’s observations are always good. Also, the models appear to be backing off the idea of a white Christmas in Boston and vicinity. Cold rain (or rain showers) and temps in the upper 30s and low 40s is just plain awful. I think even snow-haters would agree.

    The other day I was in Warwick, RI, and they had a healthy snow-pack of at least several inches, with more to come that evening. On my return to Boston Friday evening the snow-pack basically vanished as did the snow showers. I’d say there was a snow-pack of at least 1 or 2 inches through the Attleboro area (yes, Charlie, spring hasn’t sprung for you yet), but really nothing but remnants of snow piles and some patchy snow on grass after that.

  16. Once again I caution you…
    Forget the deterministic details of the forecast models beyond 3 days. A dividing line between a warming Southeast and a very cold Canada with a boundary mostly south of New England and high pressure in eastern Canada is an indication of many ingredients for snowfall in place, at least for parts of the region.

  17. Thanks TK!

    Kind of a ho-hum pattern. In the battle zone big time this week with some cold and some warm. The warmth (SE Ridge) wins out for a few days ~12/23-12/25. Maybe we challenge 60 degrees on the 23rd. Our climatological Christmas time mini-summer 😉

    The Arctic hammer looks to drop in a big way beyond then, but centered to our west with the cold. Should still make for a chilly close to 2017 and open to 2018 for us. I would imagine any precip events for a couple weeks after Christmas should favor snow even in SNE.

    Big game in Pittsburgh today… time to find out if the Pats are contenders or pretenders. That distinction is not necessarily predicated on the outcome, but on how well they compete on the road against a very good team.

  18. The only hope I see for a white Christmas in SNE at this point would be 12/25 itself. I think a cutter system is near a lock at this point for 12/23. If the ridge flattens enough behind that, we could possibly turn what looks like another mainly rain event 12/25-12/26 into a wintry event. A less likely outcome, but one which can’t be ruled out a week away.

  19. Just got ill looking over the Euro. Puke City…

    Still time for things to change around, so I continue to monitor.

  21. Trivia Quiz.

    What is the record low for December 17th in Boston?

    A. 0
    B. -2
    C. -4
    D. -14

    Answer later today.

  22. Here’s yet another example (that would never have been heeded by anyone) of something I say ALL of the time…

    About 2 weeks ago when we were eyeing a change to a colder pattern, there were several TV forecasters that said once we hit that change, we would never see the chance of 50 again through at least Christmas. Why? Because the 384 hour GFS said so, and we all know that every panel of every run verifies to the letter, right? 😛

    So here we have TV forecasters today (whether they are guilty or not of the previous “infraction”) having to talk about potential 50+ next Saturday. Now granted, we don’t know if that will actually happen yet or not, but just the fact that it has to be mentioned at all will lead a whole lot of people to conclude that all forecasters are terrible, when in fact there is just a fair percentage that are simply guilty of too much detail when we are incapable of providing that accurately.

    1. Ya butt…..the fault lies with the listener and not the messenger. Barry was very clear when he say we are looking at the possibility.

      1. Exactly. And Barry did it correctly. He also was not the one that declared on December 1 that starting a week later we’d never see 50 again this month. I won’t mention who I heard say it, but there were more than one.

        1. I believe that due diligence involves knowing your sources and checking multiple sources. There is no excuse not to with all of the resources we have

  23. TK, but I rely on those Accuweather 90 day forecasts that predict that on March 8th, 2018 it’s going to be cloudy and 34F with a bit of afternoon snow. … [just kidding]

    You’re absolutely right. We economists do what is called sensitivity analysis, which is our best tool to deal with uncertainty. I’m sure there is an analogy in meteorology. All models contain uncertainty and error terms. Sensitivity analysis is a way of apportioning overall uncertainty in the output of a model to different sources of uncertainty in the model inputs/variables.

    1. Hi Joshua. I am marginally familiar with sensitivity analysis. I like your thoughts on it.

      You did make me smile, however

      I know very well that it is not what you were intending….but if the public cannot figure out it MIGHT be 50, wait until sensitivity analysis is presented To them

      And as I type this, I realize my autocorrect changes to to TK regularly.

  26. The Pats have shown some flashes of decency in this one, but not enough. 3rd down packages on both sides of the ball are just horrendous.

    Lose this game, as appears increasingly likely, and all of a sudden it’s a whole different conversation. From potential number one seed, to fighting for a playoff spot with a suddenly massive game looming with Buffalo on Christmas Eve.

    1. They’ll make the playoffs, but how far they go is questionable. They’re front 7 on defense isn’t very good, and they’re not deep. They miss Edelman, Brady’s 40, and the o line is week at left guard.
      They need to score, go for 2, then hold them. All that as I type this with 7:00 left

    1. Haha. Thanks WxWatcher I called the win here to my kids when I heard it took 11 minutes for last pats drive. I knew a special angel was guiding the game …..and it may sound silly but then maybe not.

      What a great game. Both teams can hold their heads high.

  41. Answer to Trivia Quiz.

    What is the record low for December 17th in Boston?

    A. 0
    B. -2
    C. -4
    D. -14

    The correct answer is C.

  44. A few things from the Patriots win.
    1. What a game.
    2. I feel so bad for Brown, he is a class act receiver
    3. Patriots defense is missing Van Noy.
    4. Eric Rowe should not be on the field like I been saying all season. he sucks.
    5. The secondary except for Rowe is decent.
    6 Offense is ok, but not great.
    7. NFC is so much more powerful than the AFC. Vikings,Rams and saints all powerhouses and would beat up on the patriots and steelers who ever makes it.

    1. Rowe defended/deflected the tip that Harmon picked off on the final play. Pats already beat Saints on the road.

  45. It appears no snow for Christmas yet again. I am curious as to how many years in a row the ground has been bare. Seems like a gazillion. 🙁

    1. Not so fast, gfs now about 36-48 hr faster with the front and snow trailing it for the 25th. Still a lot to be figured out.

      1. Because the tv mets keep showing mild temps on their extended forecasts and the one on Ch.7 this morning stated that there would be no white Christmas this year.

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