Thursday Forecast

193 Comments

2:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
No changes. Arctic cold continues. Ocean-effect snow showers may occur on outer Cape Cod tonight due to a more northerly wind flow. A snow threat still exists Saturday from a clipper system passing by the region, and will serve to reinforce the cold air in time for New Year’s Eve celebrations and the first day of 2018. Details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 9-14 except 14-19 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy with snow showers and possible minor accumulations outer Cape Cod. Lows -10 to -5 interior valleys, -5 to 0 most other interior areas, 0-5 coast except 5-10 Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, except near calm in valleys.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 10-15 except 15-20 Cape Cod. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible. Highs 15-22. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 8-18.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Sunny. Lows -8 to +3. Highs 10-20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Temperatures average much below normal. One storm likely passes south of the region early in the period and another threatens later in the period with a chance of snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
Temperatures below normal. One or two snow threats possible during the period.

193 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. TK, thank you. Just saw the temp here in Newton at 7 F and probably heading a little lower now. Can’t see it getting above 12 F today.

  7. NWS discussion for this weekend

    28/00Z guidance continues along with previous idea of a low pressure
    moving into upstate NY early Saturday, then undergoing an energy
    transfer into a new low pressure off the NJ coast Saturday evening.
    This low pressure then passes south and southeast of the 40N/70W
    benchmark Saturday night. The GFS still has the closest track to our
    region, moving this low pressure just south of 40N. The ECMWF is the
    farther south of the operational guidance, with its track about 140
    miles south of the benchmark.

    Overall, it looks like only a glancing blow for most of southern New
    England. However, not so much agreement with the low track that we
    can completely dismiss a larger impact. The near zonal nature of the
    mid level flow during this time does favor a fast-moving, clipper-
    like storm, rather than a big Nor`easter. Expecting these details to
    get better resolved in the next day or so.

  9. Regarding the snow Saturday wouldn’t the most precipitation fall over the cape and islands leaving the rest with very little . As that’s what I see being advised by most Mets .

  10. Thanks, TK

    4 again in Sutton. Don’t know if it was lower. I’m on vacation again this week so don’t open my eyes till 8:00

  11. Thanks TK. Not sure if this cold is my favorite from a personal standpoint, but totally loving it from the weather geek perspective. We just don’t get cold like this for so long very often.

    Very large shift to snowier for Saturday between the 03z and 09z SREF plumes. Watching to see if the 12z NAM follows suit as those products sometimes mirror each other. It’s a bifurcated distribution, with around half near zero and the other half mainly 4-8″ with a few high outliers. Previous run had most members near zero. I’m certainly not sold on snow given the speed of the flow, but perhaps we’ll get a late model shift after all. For now, as TK has done, best to forecast just a chance of snow Saturday, favoring eastern and southeastern New England.

  13. Thanks TK.
    I wonder if were seeing what weatheroptics tweeted yesterday which I posted on the previous blog saying the trend so far this winter has been a last minute shift back northwest. Could we be seeing this here????

  14. Temp Dropped at home from 5 to 4 after sunrise.
    Yup, 4 Degrees. Cold, but it’s been colder before. 😀
    Nothing earth shattering here.

  15. Now in the words of Lee Corso who is an analyst on ESPN’s College Gameday not so fast my friend. This is in regards to that big warmup that is being talked about heading into mid January. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee.
    Interesting look by day 15. Troughing in the West would suggest warmer risks East, but ridging Alaska may try to shift things colder.

  16. OK, I got the 9Z SREF SNOW Plumes to work.
    High of 23 inches with one member and a low of 0.00 inches with one or more’
    other members. The average of all members was 2.93 inches for Boston. I didn’t dig too far, but I could not find out whether this is a snow algorithm or just plain ole 10:1.
    I do believe it is 10:1. Perhaps TK or others could verify?

    In any case here they are. Click on image to enlarge as there is much here.
    The key on the left indicates the individual ensemble member.

    https://imgur.com/a/zmsvG

  17. My view, which is not worth a plug nickle, on snow maps ahead of time.

    I thought getting them out 4-5 days prior to Christmas was a good idea. I agree with that in regard to New Years Eve as well. Many have plans, and a general idea gives them an opportunity to adjust the plans without having to wait until the last minute.

    I’ve said before that the majority of folks understand that things change until the last minutes. It is the very verbal minority that makes all of the fuss if there is a change. That group will complain no matter what the end product is. So why play to the few who are unhappy no matter what? Why not play to the majority who are responsible and appreciate a rough idea of what to expect?

      1. Exactly. And I appreciate having an idea of what might be…knowing all along that it might not be. Plan B is just something to have in place in case it is needed.

  20. Man. We may need WHW intervention for Dave. I’ve never seen the obsession like this. Slow down man, your gonna break word press and/or blow a gasket. More to life than snow, dude.

              1. And I would be disappointed.

                And I would lose most of the fun of following the snow probabilities leading up to whatever is my next ski day!

        2. Obsessed is a negative that I don’t think can ever apply to Dave….nor should it. I believe excited, enthusiastic, eager, and many others along that line are appropriate.

          For one….and I see there are already more who have commented and I’m betting far more on the sidelines….I absolutely love Dave’s links and his enthusiasm. It is positive….It is contagious.

      1. I didn’t say I was buying it, just reporting what it had to say.
        I actually like the GFS handling of this set up. I believe that
        TK indicated the new upgrade to the GFS, although generally bad, did improve it’s performances with Norlun and Norlun like set ups which this situation could be.

        So, time will tell. It is interesting that the SREF was on board, yet the NAM wants nothing to do with it.

        I checked what comprises the SREF ensemble (plume) members.

        Here is a listing of the NCEP SREF system members:

        AR(W)=Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW). ARWC=control member, ARP(1-6)=positive perturbations, ARN(1-6)=negative perturbations.

        (NM)MB=NMM-B NAM Model. MBCN=control member, MBP(1-6)=positive perturbations, MBN(1-6)=negative perturbations.

        The funny thing is, the mean of the WRF members is 2.83 inches for Boston, while the mean of the NAM members is 3.03 inches. This does not jive with the NAM operational run.

        So these NAM members must be different variations of
        the regular NAM.

    3. Someone on the blog?
      Someone In Massachusetts?
      Someone in Canada?
      Someone in Siberia?
      Someone in Alaska?
      Someone in Hoboken?

    4. Also didn’t specify WHAT someone will be shoveling. One can shovel many things; snow, sand, dirt, rocks, shit…

    1. I love it when that appears on the horizon. It can often look like an armada of ships (I like to think pirate) sailing along the horizon.

    1. Yup. The only one shoveling from the 12Z guidance is ‘ol Uncle Earl out in his fishing boat 200 miles east of Boston

    2. I was just going to post something on that. Even the GFS has backed off now.
      It will be interesting to see what the 15Z SREF plumes show.

      Although the GFS is throwing snow back to the coast with some troughing.
      Not enough though.

  29. How do the models fare projecting ocean effect snow ?

    When the wave makes its closest pass, it looks like surface winds become north for a bit. I’d think that would increase chances for some snow in eastern areas of the south shore and most of Cape Cod.

    1. The NAM “usually” picks up on OES, but more so with the Short range HRRR.
      IF highly localized, then likely missed.

  35. Remember both the GFS and Euro were showing a major east coast storm for tomorrow/Saturday at 7 days out and it went poof. I’d almost prefer the models aren’t showing anything for next Thursday right now. The big storm appearing this early is probably the kiss of death!

  36. -10 here this morning in Amsterdam, NY and was -24 about 15 miles north of here at our relatives house on the Sacandaga Lake.

    I took my son skiing at Gore yesterday and the car thermometer hit-18 at one point on the way up there. When we were out skiing it wasn’t all that bad though. It was -1 when we got on the lift for the first time and +10 by the end of the day but there was no wind. The cold is tolerable without the wind. Today however is brutal. Wind chill warnings are in effect up here for wind chills to 30 below.

    1. The skiing was great by the way….70 trails open and 8-10″ of fresh powder to be found in some of the glades.

    2. Gore Mountain is in a beautiful area. . I have relatives in warrensburg / Thurman. I have fond memories of vacationing up there as a kid. Never skied at Gore though.

    3. I am not familiar with Gore Mountain. I will have to look into it. So happy you had a good skiing day and fun with your son!

  38. Gore is a great mountain…this I where I grew up skiing as it is only an hour and 20 min drive north from Amsterdam NY. They recently expanded and now have 110 trails and glades. More vertical (2500′) top to bottom than most of the VT/NH ski areas. And they have added a bunch of gladed runs (nearly 25) and now have the longest glades in the east if you are into tree skiing. Its the best ski area in New York State in my opinion and never overly crowded. Doesn’t attract the NY City crowds like the ski areas in the Catskills do.

    Here are a few pictures from yesterday…

    Approaching the summit:
    https://s17.postimg.org/enhcr7obz/IMG_7024.jpg

    In one of the glades:
    https://s17.postimg.org/40njlu5wv/IMG_7028.jpg

    1. Nice shots of Gore. I never skied there during my time at Siena. Was it always big? I never remember anyone really giving it much thought to be honest. Also, looks like a crap ton of snow.

      1. They have been expanding terrain over the years. They were at probably 60-70 trails back in the 90’s when I was going to high school and college up here. Now up to 110 trails/27 glades and the largest mountain in NY trail count wise though I believe Whiteface still has greater vertical rise top to bottom.

  39. 12z Euro still largely a miss for Saturday. Keeps the 1″+ snow amounts to the South Coast, Cape and islands. Coating to an inch in portions of CT and RI.

  40. When that model was showing what it was showing a week in advance I said that would never happen. Rarely when a forecast model show a big snowstorm a week in advance it pans out. The only storm that comes to mind is the Blizzard of 2013 when the EURO was steady 8 days out showing the potential for a major storm run after run.

    2. It looks like a COWABUNGA storm, very tight to the coast, but the COLD
      air dominates and keeps it all Snow, Boston North and West. Some rain/mix
      to the South, but turning back to snow there as well. BUT, this is a week away.

      Snow

      https://imgur.com/a/yFAYP

  44. 12z Euro crushes the northeast next Wed/Thursday with a more favorable off shore track than the 0z run. A good 12-18″ in SNE and 20-30″ in parts of NY and NJ.

    https://s17.postimg.org/6bllqgr3j/Capture.jpg

    Seems to be a transfer of energy from the parent coastal storm to a new storm farther off shore which results in a double barrel low south of New England and perhaps slightly lower totals over SNE.

  45. A week away I would be surprised if it panned out what is being shown now. Maybe this a rare case like the Blizzard of 2013 where a forecast a week in advance of major snowfall held.

    1. Remember, TK was saying that he thought the models were grabbing the wrong shortwave. It’s been 2 days running now, so I dunno. Just a word of caution.

  46. Note the end of the 12z Euro run is still mighty cold. Appears to be reloading again on 1/7 and the expanse of cold at 240 hours across the northeastern 2/3 of the country does not look a whole lot different than the setup today.

  48. I still feel uneasy about Saturday night/Sunday
    Mid week has my eye. Will have to monitor it. I do not think we get skunked both times, we get use of the cold at some point

    1. another reason, look at all the ensembles for the gfs and canadian, I unfortunately lost my connection to the EURO temporarily. They are all showing at least something for that time frame

  50. an even 11 degrees here with a 1 degree wind chill and -9 DP

    We started dripping faucets last night and will of course continue through this cold snap.

      1. I was going to say that too. Unless you live in an old house with minimal insulation, that’s something from a bygone era.

      2. One of my sons in law owns a plumbing business. The other one manages a plumbing business. The latter is in Wellesley where as many – perhaps more – of the new homes burst pipes last winter and previous winters. Both had 50 plus calls on the worse of the cold days last year. Comments ranged from it was a new home to they have never had a problem before.

        My advice….as I know it is theirs…..it is very expensive when a pipe bursts but is a negligible expense to drip water 🙂

        1. I have 2 friends that are plumbers and they say the only reason you’d have not to drip faucets is if all the pipes were not on outside walls. They both say no matter how good your insulation is, if the pipes are on an outside wall, play it safe and drip when it’s going to be under 15F for an extended period of time.

          2. Absolutely true, TK. My son in law made the same comment for this house last night. New houses can and do have outside wall pipes.

            Our other house was a serious concern as it was a slab and pipes were in the attic and in the walls. This is a seven year old house. We have a room that is a concern because of that very reason. And the pipes are heavily insulated. My guess is the rest of the house would be fine.

            We know we have pipes in one outside wall because my son in law knows to look for them. Many homeowners do not know to look or realize they have to.

            As both wisely say……it costs nothing to drip a faucet or two. Burst pipes are simply not worth the alternative.

  51. 15Z SREF has also BACKED OFF for Saturday:

    https://imgur.com/a/yFAYP

    Plumes Mean snow for Boston: 1.49 inch
    with a low of 0.00 and a high of 9.75

    WRF members Mean: 1.26
    NMB members Mean: 1.71

    NOT looking so good for snow or at least much snow.

  52. Yeah, I saw the ECMWF’s “Dolly Parton” storm for next week. Not buying it. We have a better chance of being visited by Dolly herself.

    Still think we’re looking at the wrong shortwave. I may look really stupid if I’m wrong.

    2. I agree. You will never look stupid…..but I do like the reference to Dolly Parton.

      I am in the process of making templates for the prints and words of wisdom plaques that are going on my soon to be new picture wall. One of my all time favorites is from Ms. Parton.

      You cannot direct the wind, but you can adjust the sails.

    2. I’m definitely not looking at a big storm for Saturday. I haven’t been thinking that way during this watching period, just for the snow possibility. And it remains there. Yes we do have a progressive flow and very dry air, but it sometimes doesn’t take much to squeeze out some snow and with the ratios as high as they would be it would not take very much QP to coat the ground or accumulate if it was a bit heavier.

              1. Not solidly a “no”. I am currently using the method of anticipated model error. I admit this far out it’s pretty stacked against me. But I think the global models overall are over-amplifying a short wave that will not bend the flow that much, and that it will be one behind it that brings a better shot at a winter storm (not saying blockbuster storm, just winter storm threat).

                1. Yeah probably on the 6th . I have plans this weekend so snow , I have plans next weekend so snow lol.

  56. I just saw Boston only reached 12 today being the coldest high temperature ever recorded for this day. The previous record was 18.

  57. For the record, I mean no offense to anybody with the Dolly Parton reference. I tend to have a little old-style humor. You know the type you could get away with on TV in the 1970s. I grew up on that stuff. 😉

    1. I think everyone here understands. lol.

      That said it reminds me of something I heard on a tv show in the 70’s. When someone asked a character a question that was an obvious yes they replied with “does Dolly Parton sleep on her back?”

    2. I didn’t originally get it. When I see the name Dolly Parton I think of Mac’s and my first official date (having gone everywhere as friends for several years). I laughed when I read further along in the blog and you explained the reference.

      And I can only speak for myself. I do not find it offensive. I think there are lines that are crossed and that there is no excuse for them. However, I grew up in a time where men and women could make jokes and understand they were not crossing a line. I have never had a problem with stuff like that because I can give as good as I get…..does that surprise anyone 🙂

      1. I have absolutely no problem with it and from the little I know of Dolly’s personality – from friends who have met her -I think she’d be tickled pink that a bunch of weather bloggers have nicknamed a storm in her honor as it’s in her likeness! However as we are supposed to move on Thursday I hope our very own TK’s advance model error analysis turns out to be the “Dolly Buster” on this one… now for that I am terrible – just can’t resist an easy pun!

  58. 18Z GFS also looks a little more amplified with the 500MB flow.
    Will it result in anything? Will know in a few.

  60. 8.8 in JP now. Pretty LOW launching (sub-launching?) point for tonight’s
    low temperature reading. I would say a decent shot of going sub-zero tonight.

    Been a while since we have been sub-zero in the city.

  61. No surprise that the current (18z) incarnation of the GFS has the “Dolly” storm missing by about 500 miles on January 4.

  64. Not to belabor it, but I will because I think it is important. My son in law just arrived here and he said old houses are the concern because new houses cannot have pipes in the wall. I asked why he had new houses with frozen pipes. He said they go into new houses all the time that are not to code so no one should go by new house but should know their individual house.

    1. My current thinking is coating to 2 inches Boston area / Worcester area south except 2-4 inches South Coast and up to 5 inches on the islands.

        1. I don’t think a coating to 2 inches can possibly be “way more”, unless Wankum is forecasting negative accumulation. 😉

              1. I’m fine thank you just a cold from working that storm . 3am Xmas morning till 6pm Xmas night. We all thought we’d make afternoon with our families. I knew once that thunder snow started it was all over.

            1. You did. I’m not forecasting much for Boston. Coating to 2 inches max. The 2 inches would be attained if we set up an ocean-feed for a few hours there. The coating is more likely.

  66. Lowell’s high temperature of 8 today broke the previous record lowest high temperature for this date of 13 set back in 1933.

  70. 0Z Gfs and CMc are both swings and misses for next week.

    On the other hand, CMC and RGEM most robust for Saturday.

    Night all.

    1. No surprise on either of those.

      Also note the first pick-up of the second short wave for the threat around January 6 by the GFS once it decided the blizzard of ’18 was not going to be on January 4. Long way to go to resolve that period of time.

  71. SSK .. to answer your earlier question about Mount Washington, they bottomed out at -33 in the early morning then hung in the -20s most of the day but tonight a big warm up to 1 above zero.

    1. And we know that will be right. Just like the run before it will be right, even though it had double digit amounts. 😉

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