8:19PM
As expected, the center of Irene is back over water, east of Virginia Beach, as of 8PM. I am going to continue to forecast the center spending most of its time over warm water just off the Delmarva/NJ coast tonight, making landfall late tomorrow morning in western Long Island before cutting across western CT and central MA into NH during the day.
Specifics…
Rain: Tropical downpours all areas tonight, heaviest steady rain west of the storm track, more showery east of it. Rainfall amounts 1-4 inches east of the track, 4-8 inches to the west, with locally heavier amounts. River flooding most likely in the heavy rain areas to the west. Flash flooding problems may occur anywhere when heavy rain occurs over a short period of time.
Wind: East of the storm track, winds mostly from the southeast to south, often tropical storm force, top gusts 40-60 MPH with locally stronger, except gusts around hurricane force likely along the South Coast and some of the higher elevations (Blue Hill, for example). The strongest winds should occur from shortly after dawn on Sunday until shortly after sunset Sunday evening, but strong gusts may continue as the wind shifts more to the west in areas that were east of the storm track well into the night and early Monday morning. West of the track, expect northeast to north winds 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, but strongest winds there will be northwest to west behind the storm, 25-40 MPH with stronger gusts, likely over 50 MPH for a period of time Sunday evening. Considerable tree damage is expected from this event, because it has been a while since such a storm, and the ground is saturated from heavy rain before the storm, making the soil softer around bases off trees.
Storm Surge: Same as previous, 4 to potentially 8 foot storm surge flooding at the times of high tide, especially south facing bay areas along the South Coast. Coastal flooding is likely elsewhere, but not as severe.
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible in heavier rain bands especially Sunday morning and midday and especially over eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. These are usually very weak and short-lived, but still significant enough to add to wind damage. For more on the cause of these kinds of tornadoes, see previous entries.
Updated Boston Area Forecast…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of tropical showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times. Low 64-69. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts around dawn from south to north.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers most numerous in the morning, likely heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms as well. Brief intervals of sunshine may pop out between the downpours over the Boston area and points to the south. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE to S 25-45 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH and even slightly higher, favoring higher elevations and coastal areas. Winds shift more SW to W during the afternoon. Isolated brief tornadoes possible through mid afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds following. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH, still may reach around 50 MPH over exposed higher elevations.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing slowly.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.
Just got in a blog before it was updated:
I just realized that I won’t be able to use my husband’s computer if the lights go out and get onto this blog – as it is more of a private blog. So, if we lose the lights here, I will not be on this blog. That’s ok, ‘though – I’ll catch up when the lights go on. (I will miss talking to everyone). But, in the meantime, hopefully the lights won’t go out!
Rain shine can you sign onto your husbands commuter under your email address. Or can youngest tonight under his email address and ,go thru moderation. Just trying to figure angles. I’ll hope for power to stay on though. And that’s an extreme for me since I love power failures !!!
That’s supposed to say can you post tonight using his email address to get thru moderation. Sorry. iPhones tend to autocorrect in ridiculous ways
Thanks TK. You will need some time to just relax after all of the work you have done to keep everyone here updated. I’ve said it before. I know everyone has but this is a great place to just discuss and learn. And I was also thinking that it’s great how everyone is getting to know each other.
I agree with everything Vicki said. Thank’s TK.
Thanks Again for the update TK. Tornado Watch now extended up northward to include Long Island NYC and Fairfield County in CT until 5AM. I would expect that to extend as we go through the night and into tomorrow morning. I am thinking when it makes landfall in western CT it will be a strong tropical storm.
I enjoy reading your comments and I hope the power does not go out so I could continue to blog with all of you.
Thanks, Vicki- I appreciate your advice but I think that if the lights go out rather than complicate things I will wait ’til they come on to get on this blog.
Did you say your son has to work tomorrow? I will be hoping for him to stay safe.
TK – thank you for your update. I agree w/everything that Vicki said. I really appreciate being on this blog – I can finally share my love of the weather w/people like me! And it’s nice to meet new people. And most of all – thanks for all the hard work you put into this blog.
I think I am going to close down soon and try to relax. Tomorrow looks to be an interesting day!
Stay safe rainshine. Goodnight.
Thanks, you too, John.
Thank you rain shine. Son does have to work. I suspect many do and that is definitely a concern. I am hoping everyone stays safe.
Thanks as always TK for the update! Too bad that Monday will still be humid. I was hoping that drier air would move right in with Irene’s departure. Keeping my fingers crossed that Labor Day Weekend will be nice. It is never to early to start to talk about a weekend, but time aplenty for more details…let’s just get through Irene first. 🙂
Hopefully any power outages will be as brief as possible and our landscapes won’t look “too bad” come Monday morning. Keep safe everyone! 🙂
Thanks TK!!
The T changing there mind on tomorrow, they will close at 8am and than suspend service. Harvey still going with 50-70mph wind in my area coming in early.
They decided to open till 8am so healthcare workers can get to work. School is closed Monday in Springfield, it was to be there first day.
And with saturated soil that could cause power outages. Stepping outside it has the feel of Florida out there.
Thanks TK !
For a quick change is anyone watching the pats game. I think the refs have been bribed.
I am trying Vicki. I am just to into this storm.
I am surprised that the Patroits are getting beat this bad so far by the Lions. I think the Pats will be fine for the regular season because you know adjustments are going to be made when Belicheck looks at the game tape.
I’m surprised too. They are a much better team. They’ll work it out.
Welker is my man- 44yds
My husband just jumped because I laughed out loud when I read your comment. I absolutely love welker.
He is my favorite player on the team.
Mine too
They just showed NYC times square on the news and It is deserted. BTW Ch 5 is airing every 30minutes for a quick update. South facing shorelines will be hit hard with the storm surge.
I’m off for the night. Stay safe everyone and thanks again TK.
Good night Vicki- stay safe. I will talk to you tomorrow.
3 tornadoes reported down south so far.
Currently a tornado warning south of Phialdelphia right now. Lewes, Delaware possible tornado touchdown which damaged some homes. As I said earlier I expect that tornado watch to expand here.
I agree- I think we get one hell of a storm here.
Just what stressed people need to worry about, a chance of a tornado hitting.
NYC Seems to be going down hill fast.
Pete B has not updated his blog at all today, that’s odd.
No one should worry about the Pats. They left half the team behind in New England.
I give tk alot of credit, u pinned this one. Great job, after all this hoopla about the eye going over NYC, like u said it’s gonna pass east of NYC by 40-50 miles and come right over Hartford
From SSPC,
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION AND FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AFTER DAYBREAK
INTO MIDDAY ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ASSUMING THIS
OCCURS…WITHIN THE INLAND SPREADING OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF
IRENE…THE RISK FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES PROBABLY
WILL INCREASE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
So I presume we will be seeing a tornado watch soon