Sunday Forecast

159 Comments

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)
In some places the warm front still has not passed as we don’t have a very strong push of warm air this time, so the cooler air at the surface has been tough do dislodge, much like what we often see in the winter and spring, but that warm/muggy air will finally get into all areas and then as a cold front approaches later we will see the risk of showers increase from later this afternoon into tonight, as indicated previously. After the front goes by we do see drier air tomorrow but cold air aloft and a boundary setting up near the eastern coastal areas will make development of showers probable during the afternoon and evening hours. Not expecting widespread rainfall but any of these showers may be briefly heavy. The next “interruption” comes in the form of a cold front sometime Thursday, and currently leading toward the first half of the day, but at day 5 there is not high confidence regarding the timing of a front. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring late afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, drier overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to early afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
High pressure ridge takes over with building heat, mainly dry weather and only isolated thunderstorms possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)
High pressure ridge dominating the weather should result in mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures, but we’ll have the jet stream close enough to the north and the center of high pressure just far enough west to result in the possibility of disturbances and passing showers and storms at times, so will have to monitor for those, especially during the second half of the period.

159 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

      1. Makes good sense considering the big heat will be on our doorstep by then. Thanks Vicki! 🙂

  5. According to Barry this morning:

    1. Possible 4-5 day heatwave
    2. Cold in eastern Canada may play a role later this summer

    TK – What are your thoughts regarding #2?

    1. I don’t know the answer, but far northeastern Canada has truly been very chilly. Relatively speaking, they haven’t seen much thaw at all. Positive NAO and other teleconnections have kept the cold air progressively flowing into this region.

    1. As much as I like Kenny Loggins (and of course Loggins and Messina) The Heat is On is a Glenn Frey song.

      If temps get as high as forecasted I don’t think I’ll be able to move at the pace of that song 🙂

      1. Thanks Keith. I don’t why I thought Kenny Loggins. When there is hot temps I always play that song.

        1. 🙂

          Moving a little more slowly than you young ones I’ll be playing Summer by War 🙂

  7. Thanks TK !

    We head off to go camping in southwest Maine this coming Friday.

    Thank goodness this is a site with electric hookup, so we’ll have access to the camper A/C.

    The campground is atop a ridge point and when it’s about 90F “down in the valley”, it’s usually about 83F to 84F at the campground.

    If things hold, I’m curious to see what high temps the campground sees.

        1. Well, that is extremely important. Even SW Maine is projected to be well above 100 in this particular run.
          Which town is it?

          1. Thanks Vicki, looking forward to.

            My wife’s family has camped there for decades and we haven’t been in a few years, as our travels have taken us elsewhere. It was time to go back 🙂

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So I was forced to watch P.G. last evening. She was talking about STRONG storms
    later today. Say what? Does she know what she is doing? Some believe she does.
    Well, I am camp she hasn’t a clue.

  10. What you posted JPDave is air temps. The heat index will be higher than those temps.
    I feel this solution is like the NAM calling for over a foot of snow and the other models closer to reality. In other words way over done.

    2. I checked the dew points.

      Euro has about 70, GFS about 66.
      With that temp and those dps, heat index of 112 to 116!!!!!!!

      1. BTW, I believe the all time record high for Boston is
        104? I think? Not positive.

        In any case, those GFS temps would be RECORD breaking
        for Boston.

        IF IF IF IF IF IF IF they were to verify.

  12. We are very lucky in the northeast to be in the geographic location we are to help temper summer’s heat. Great Lakes to the west, the still melting ice cube to the north known as Hudson Bay, the Labrador current to our north and east and the moderating waters to our south.

    For instance …. Moscow, Russia has a record high temp of 100.8F for July. Here’s the kicker though, Moscow’s latitude is almost 56 N Latitude. Implication, the sun angle in Moscow is 13 degrees LOWER at solar noon than southern New England.

    Head to many locations of similar altitude and latitude around the world outside of New England, getting away from those geographic moderators I listed above and I believe the record highs in those similar latitudinal areas are higher than ours.

    So, if you get a once in a hundred year 500 mb ridge to sit in just the right spot, at a time when the noon sun angle reaches 70 degrees and the region is under abnormally dry ground conditions, then, in that instance, I don’t think that 105F or something like that under the ridge being depicted has a zero probability. It certainly is quite low, but not completely impossible.

  13. By the way, does everyone like the euro’s mid Atlantic hybrid/tropical system on its 00z run ??

  14. Thanks TK.

    SPC has nudged the marginal severe risk for today into southwest New England. Not something I’m too concerned about given the cloudiness, though an isolated stronger storm is possible. However, a lot of the short range guidance, including the HRRR, is bullish on pockets of heavy rain (1”+) this afternoon and evening. Will some of us finally get some meaningful rain today?

  15. I do know for a fact that 104 degrees is the all time record high for Boston, but I would be curious if any other locations in SNE have seen a higher temperature. Anyone?

    1. Yes they have. I think New Bedford had 107 as well as another town\
      near the Connecticut Valley I “think”.

  16. Hi all! Was doing the Sunday AM stuff with my mom. Catching up now…

    Yes, “middle 70s to lower 90s” was a typo. I fixed it. The 9 should have been an 8. We get a touch of cooler air behind a front Thursday, and I’m basing this on faster timing this far in advance and so that is subject to change.

    I think the first 90+ will show up next Friday, not for everybody, but for some. That will probably be the start of a multi-day heatwave and possibly one that followed immediately behind that.

    Barry’s comment about cold air in eastern Canada playing a role later in the summer, while a fair comment, I’m guessing is largely based on the Euro Monthlies, which I did actually support yesterday. How that air would play a role yet I am not sure, because I am not so sure I believe it will be as big a factor as you can infer from that Euro Monthlies set. If it shows up next round, then I’ll open my eyes a little more to it.

    Back to the coming heat, yes I still think the astronomical temps on the models are too high. They are higher than the “usual” highs, which obviously would lend me to believe we’d be in for some pretty intense heat, but I am not going to just outright buy these numbers. They will not verify. I REALLY wish Boston would fix their thermometer soon so if we do end up challenging some records, we have data that is accurate and not 1 to 2 degrees too high. But I don’t expect this to happen.

    1. Yes, and the CFS has been either awesome or sucky the last several months, no real in-between. Look for consistency.

        1. Oh I look at it all the time. Even when it’s o.t.l. it provides great clues. Just a matter of knowing how to read them. 😉

            1. July 4 1983 was brutal. My first day of pregnancy queeze……as we sat at the ten hour long natick parade. Well, it wasn’t 10 hours but sure seemed like it 😉

          2. Seabreeze …. this particular run sets the ridge up slightly further north and west. Keeps even lighter surface wind flow, allowing for seabreezes.
            I’m pretty sure the expected temps in southern Canada may have increased compared to the 00z because the core of the warmest air aloft is further north and west.

            Exactly where the center of that ridge sets up will be crucial.

              1. If it continues into July a sea breeze would be lovely…..can you work on that as time permits please, TK. 😉 🙂

                2. I think if it went further west, better chance for debris cloudiness like that day it was going to be 95 to 98 and ended up more like 88. Or it can contain a better chance for thunderstorms and a better chance for cool fronts to pass through New England occasionally that really temper how hot it can get.

      2. thats more likely to happen. But just like in winter, we will probably see it go back and forth. It would probably be one of the hotter birthday I will have. Even hotter than when I was down in the USVI for my birthday.

  23. Boston’s torrid summer of 1983…
    Temp at Logan, keeping in mind their modification due to proximity to ocean water, bested average by 3F in June, 3F in July, 1F in August, and 4F in September. The heat was relentless almost the entire summer with very few breaks. That ridge was the most persistent ridge I have ever seen in the eastern US.

    1. I remember moving into my freshman dorm room up in Wolfeboro, NH just after Labor Day and it was sweltering !!

      1. 1983 was much worse as far as persistence of overall heat. 1988 was noted for some hot stretches, especially during the first half of August, and was also more humid overall, but the temperatures were essentially near normal in June & July, a few degrees above normal in August, and slightly below normal in September.

  25. tk i know this is early but do you have any thoughts about the severe weather potential ( if any) on june 30 to july 3rd time frame? i have been noticing for a while thar there is high CAPE and LI. i know there are orher factors such as wind shear and other factors. i hope we can get a good severe weather outbreak and not those isolated threats.
    i saw you mention yesterday about how we get good severr weather when we have a NW flow. why is that? and do you think we will get a Nw flow based on any upcoming pattern? many thanks!

    1. well checking the latest gfs. It has 0 CAPE for eastern mass but up to 3000 in western mass.

    2. We’ll just have to see if any disturbance in the jet stream to the north extends far enough south to “dent” the ridge. Otherwise it’ll be just isolated air mass and/or sea breeze front convection that would occur under the ridging.

  27. “could” this latest HRRR be at least “close” to correct?
    Shows nearly 1 3/4 inch of rain for Boston or near Boston.

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018062417/018/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    Showers are showing up on radar and moving Eastward

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25497764&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. That particular run just happens to kind of maximize the PWAT. It will probably be lighter to much lighter overall.

  28. Haven’t checked the 2m temps, but based on ridging being a bit weaker, I’d guess the Euro has also cooled down some on the hot stretch for this run.

    Upstream radar suggests many places in SNE get good rains today. Fingers crossed!

    1. Some of that will survive but most of it won’t. I think area-wise the coverage will be much better but the amounts will be generally under 1/2 inch.

  29. Thank you, TK.

    We need some rain. Did anything fall yesterday in Eastern Massachusetts? I heard that parts of Rhode Island got a few showers overnight.

    Regarding next week’s potential for “torrid heat” any time the surface air temperature goes above our normal body temperature for a sustained period of time it becomes very difficult for humans to handle, especially when combined with humidity. Even in places accustomed to over 100F heatwaves – India, for example – deaths due to extreme heat are common. Air conditioning does help here in the U.S., but not everyone has air conditioning.

  30. Global models made some corrections on the 12z runs coming off the overdone heat forecasts. 🙂

  31. I have said before the my medium range outlooks I try to make as vague as possible while still giving the reader the idea of what to expect. I found an example of this today. When I study the guidance, depending on how much I want to use it, I use a method called “anticipated model error”. I remember when I was looking at the weather in the furthest ranges of my forecast for this weekend I used that method to adjust the timing of a trough that was appearing on the guidance and came up with this. It doesn’t always work this well, but here is an example of where it did. This is from the blog post on June 10, 2 weeks ago today….

    DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)
    A continuation of the pattern of days 6-10 is expected. Overall pattern is dry to start, but a broader trough will probably send a low pressure system through with unsettled conditions for the June 23-24 weekend. Temperatures variable but averaging near normal overall.

  32. Usually models over do QPF / Snowfall. This time overdone heat. I do believe that we will have somwhere in SNE hit 100 during 07/01-07/05 time period. But 90’s will be general rule, not 104-113 as some have modeled.

    July will be hot and dry.

    August most likely not influenced by the cold in eastern Canada. Don’t bite. Believe in persistence of pattern.

    1. This I agree with! And yes I do believe someone hits 100 in early July. We may see it more than once.

      I do think though as we get into August the mean center of ridging may wobble its way to between the East Coast & Bermuda.

  34. Quick question:

    If Logan is not the right place to record temperatures for all-time records because of the seabreeze, what would be the best station in Eastern Mass for heat records? Blue Hills? Bedford-Hanscomb?

    Curious to know what y’all think…

    2. For Boston records, I believe it should be the Boston Common.
      For other Eastern Ma towns, well it’s up to them. 😀

    1. A couple of lightning strikes just crossing the Connecticut River on the state line.

      1. Thanks Captain. I see a few just north of JJ. I don’t have Marks location in my head so not sure if they are hear him. I also see a bit of a flare up just about due west of here around Springfield. There is hope yet

  37. Hottest day ever in Boston was July 4, 1911 at 104.
    Hottest day ever in Massachusetts was August 2, 1975 in New Bedford and in Chester at 107.

    1. Those are the big boys in terms of heat. It will be hard to reach or exceed those. Another thing hard to equal or exceed is the persistence of some of the heat waves in the 1980s & 1990s especially in the central US, and going back further the 1930s.

      Recall the Chicago heatwave of July 1995 in which 739 heat related deaths occurred. The city reached 106 which was their second warmest, but still FOUR shy of their all time record of 110 set back in 1934.

    2. Thank you, Captain. I am curious about outside of Boston. If I recall correctly the 1975 one was the day we helped family a family friend and soon to be nee professor at Dartmouth move into her house. We had no idea of the actual temp which was a good thing. Her new neighbors kept bringing us drinks though

      1. I remember my brother saying the thermometer outside our back door was at 104F on Aug 2 1975. It was an old alcohol (red) thermometer so I can’t guarantee its accuracy, but from what I remember it was one that performed very well, so I would guess the error would be under 2F.

        1. As I recall, it was not a whole lot cooler that night. I remember putting sheets on the living room floor, opening the doors to the porch and sleeping there…although it was hard to sleep

          Funny what we did before AC. My mom always switched out beds for winter or summer and on hot nights we would sleep with our heads at the foot to be closer to the window. Cross ventilation was also a huge plus in houses. Now many new houses only have windows on front and back. No side windows

          Pardon my trip down memory lane.

          1. August 2 was a Saturday. My dad worked overtime that Saturday morning and then we headed to the family cottage in Onset. Fearing the car was going overheat, Dad had to put the heater on in the car!!
            We couldn’t stay on the beach because the sand was too hot. I slept on a chaise lounge on the front lawn under the stars. Slept probably isn’t the word. Don’t think I slept at all that night!

            1. What a great memory. Thank you for sharing. And it seems as if you got about a much sleep as I did.

          2. You need not ask for pardon on memory lane trips, especially weather-related ones! That is part of the reason there is a comments section on this blog. 🙂

            1. Thank you, TK. I do tend to share them often and can feel badly. But as I posted I did think that for once I had a weather related you. You are a kind person and make me smile

  38. Weather forecasting is just following the models right?

    In that case, after I look at a couple recent runs of the GFS and the most recent GEM for my temperature forecast for Monday July 2 I forecast a high temp in Boston somewhere between 68 and 106. Should hit that range. 😛

    2. That GEM forecast is going out on a limb. Does the forecast range also include “could be cloudy or sunny on July 2nd”?

      1. It might be cloudy or sunny, or something in between. It may rain and it may not. And if it rains there may be thunder and there may not be. I’m pretty sure the wind speed won’t be zero all day, but should be under 100 MPH too.

          1. No, no. Just brutally honest. 🙂

            What I see in media all week makes me this way. For example, a major event last night had a “rain date” of today. I talked to the organizers of the event and told them they’d be better off holding the 5PM-10PM outdoor event Saturday even with some drizzle and an overcast, as it would probably be more genuinely wet on Sunday evening.

            Had you paid close attention to most TV forecasts, Saturday afternoon & night were to be quite wet and there was only going to be a few showers around late Sunday.

              1. They did. It was a wonderful time. Rides, games, live music, cookout, and a great fireworks display. 🙂

  40. Let’s hope the band of rain north and west of Boston holds together and reaches the coast. It’s really dry. Not 2016 dry, but still.

  41. Here I sit, waiting for the Bustorama (but remember, TK said most of it would NOT survive). I see it breaking up and falling apart on its final approach to Boston.

    We want to hit DQ this evening, but do NOT want to drive in the rain nor do I want to get wet waiting in line.

      1. Is there one in Marshfield? I can’t remember.

        May I suggest one of my favs. It’s a blizzard that is not on
        the menu. Ask for a blizzard with caramel and marshmallow.
        It is out of this world!!!

        1. Yes there is. This one has a covering that extends out a few feet from where you order.

          Thanks for the suggestion, I love caramel and like marshmallow, so I’ll have to give that a try.

          1. Hope you make it and enjoy.
            Where is it? curious. I basically know the main drag from rt. 3 to the coast. I know 139 splits in the center, but I go straight. We have a friend who
            lives almost on the water on Constitution Street/Road.

            1. In the center at the lights (CVS is on the left), take a right. It’s a few hundred feet on the left. Across from it on the right is marshalls.

            2. I believe it is right next to where my daughter and family were picking up a cake at Veronica’s yesterday and next to where my very favorite children’s shop was decades ago….once upon a time. We go every year.

                1. Do you remember when once upon a time was just to its right when it originally opened. Huge teddy bear sitting out front.

  42. The intensity makes it to about the old rt. 128 and then starts to die.
    Figures. BUT, hey, that’s good for making it to DQ. 😀 😀 😀

  44. A little “batch of energy” is yet to arrive and may ignite another fairly widespread shower area between 8PM & midnight or so.

  46. Tom, we reached the reply limit above. Regarding the fireworks against the low clouds… they were also into a bit of light fog. It made them look really cool. I took a lot of photos and a great video of the end which will eventually make their way to FB.

    1. The higher clouds cleared out to the west allowing some sunlight onto the lower deck over you, lighting it up.

  48. TV guy gave too much detail for Thursday including a 3 hour window for shower arrival time and rainfall amounts. No no no no. Not good. Day 4. Can’t do it.

  49. Lots of rain, thunder and lightning here in Harvard – which makes my Sunday night insomnia a little more fun! We were at the Vineyard last week and the weather was perfect!!

  51. Heavy thunderstorm just going through Sudbury. Heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning. Thunder more to east now. Radar shows more rain maybe more storms off to west.

  52. Core is passing south of me here but plenty of powerful thunder along with a nice batch of heavy rain.

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