Sunday Forecast

73 Comments

11:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)
Quick and easy update today, WHW readers! No changes to the forecast. High pressure brings a humidity reprieve today and Monday before our friendly Atlantic ridge starts to retrograde (move westward) and return the humidity as July ends and August gets underway. The shower and thunderstorm threat that has been present recently will also take a break for a few days, with the first chance of anything returning being late Tuesday, albeit not a great chance, and then we’ll start to see the daily risk of them, though not likely widespread, by the middle of next week. And although this midweek storm risk is several days away, I have seen some early signs that the pattern may support severe storms where they occur, so something to keep in mind going forward. Forecast details…
TODAY: Filtered sunshine. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-86, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)
Ridge dominates the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting. A daily opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but much of this time will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)
Ridge slides back east and takes the edge off the heat, but overall pattern still warm/humid, with occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms as the Midwest trough gets a little closer again.

73 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. I’m down here on the south coast of RI dew points still in the mid sixties water mid seventies a great day overall. Next week west coast of Florida Siesta Key. I’m quite sure I will see some late day intense thunder storms.

  4. Thanks TK
    Will be watching that thunderstorm threat mid week. GFS for several runs showing parameters for severe storms.

  5. According to Dave Epstein, no cool air for the foreseeable future, maybe through the rest of the summer? UGH!!!

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  9. GFS has been for a while now showing favorable parameters for strong to severe storms Wed Thurs time period including today’s 12z run. It may not end up being right but this model has been consistent in showing this potential.

  10. I saw a stat recently by one of the tv mets that Boston has had 10 90-degree days so far and Worcester only 2. That makes no sense to me.

    1. it’s call EAST WIND.
      We’ve had far more than 10 here in JP. Perhaps something like 13-15.

      1. No, what makes no sense to me: Please re-read

        90 degree days to date

        Boston (Logan) 10
        Worcester 2

        1. what. makes perfect sense to me.
          Worcester weather records are held at the airport, elevation 1,000 feet. way different than the city of Worcester

          1. I thought you were complaining about Boston because their number was low. I see it was Worcester as your concern. 😀

            1. Another good reason that climo stats should not be at airports. I didn’t know that Worcester had similar temp issues as Logan and that elevation plays that much of a role.

    2. I live in Lunenburg, about the same “westness” as Worcester. We have had 11 90+ days. The Worcester weather station is at the airport at 1,000′.

  12. 81 with 62DP. Ahhhhhhhhhh

    Nice WSW breeze. I’m trying to nudge it a bit NW or SE so it will go through the house

    1. When we breathe a sigh of relief with a 62F dp, we have definitely hit rock bottom with this disgusting pattern. 😉

      1. You make me smile

        I really haven’t minded the weather. I’d like to have windows open more but that will come. I do wish we’d have a less humid stretch for those who struggle with it. I think I mentioned the other day that my sister in law in Atlanta said how lovely their air had been. As I recall the DP was 68

  14. SREF model highlighting parts of VT, and NH and areas just west of the Worcester area for Wed in a potential risk for a tornado. I don’t know the accuracy of the model that far out but I have noticed inside of 36 hours it does a good job in picking out areas where a possible tornado could happen.

  17. Dew points are a little low for me today. 65 plus please.
    And we’ve had at least 10 90 degree days here. Worcester apt is about as poor as Logan is sometimes.

    1. I enjoy all weather. Hot humid, and cold and snowy. However I’m not sure many like chance for snow in November or April.

      1. I’d be happy with snow in any of the 12 months but I do enjoy all weather. Love is far too short not to

    2. enjoy most weather, like the hot and humid of summer especially when I am around the ocean. Like the cold and snow as well. I am not the largest fan of 50s and drizzle though but know what comes with the good there is also the bad.

  18. If all the leaves are off the trees and the raking is done bring on the snow in November. I am ready for spring on April 1st but if we get snow I am not unhappy.

  19. Thanks TK !

    Even the Cape got some more comfortable air today, thank goodness, cause yesterday’s humidity down there was brutal.

    Went to first encounter beach on the bayside. Love the tide there. Water temp had to be 75 to 80F.

    Now back on the south shore and the cape traffic wasn’t too bad, which was a nice surprise !

  20. Thank you, TK.

    Today’s `comfort’ level was not so comfortable. I know that some love it humid, and I wish I could endure it. I was so hoping for a true reprieve. Really didn’t get one. At least I barely felt it. It still felt sticky today. Breathing wasn’t great. My run was laborious. It has not really been a hot summer, but it has been quite humid. Oh well, it’s weather, nothing one can do about it.

    I did enjoy seeing the athleticism of JBJ. I loved Fred Lynn, and I thought Darren Lewis was very good (Coco Crisp could play, too), but JBJ is out of this world good at his craft. It’s the tracking of fly balls that impresses me. Crisp and Ellsbury made some good plays, but they were terrible at tracking fly balls. Ellsbury, in particular, too circuitous routes to baseballs. Not JBJ. From the crack of the bat, he judges where the ball’s going to go and gets there. Great arm, too.

    https://twitter.com/Jared_Carrabis/status/1023632592346734592

    1. I think you are correct…sitting or light exercise is not bad but many of those I know who do workout in one fashion or another are struggling

    1. Morning’s to early PM were spent at Nauset, Coast Guard, Nauset Light or
      once in a while Marconi. Late afternoon’s were spent at Cooks Brook.

      After those 2 weeks I was always water logged.

      1. Great spots, JP Dave. Spent lots of time in Eastham, Orleans, and Wellfleet. Saw Jaws at the Drive-In in Wellfleet when it came out in 1975 (or was it `76). Loved the bayside beaches, but also the oceanside beaches. I absolutely loved summer then, because I hated school.

        Summer to me meant the most important thing in the world to me: No school. Was not a fan of post-modern methods of teaching, then or now. I loved history and geography and we didn’t learn any at all in school (we literally did not have either on the curriculum!), except bizarre projects focused on an obscure tribe in Africa or an Eskimo settlement near Baffin Island. I guess the latter stuck with me, because I’m still intrigued by our Kimmirut friends. Only when I went to Europe as an exchange student did I begin to love school. It was old-fashioned, hierarchical, and conservative with a tremendous amount of stressful tests (oral and written), but I really thrived in that environment.

        1. We see JAWS at the WellFleet Drive in when it came out
          in 1975 as well. Daughter was 4.

          Was that you making shadow figures on the screen???
          Just joking.

          I HATED school as much as anyone could possibly do so!!
          All I did was day dream about what I would do at the end of the day and LOOK at the CLOCK which NEVER moved fast enough.

  22. They MAY be turning a corner with Redding fire. Long way to go

    I’m thinking we will get smoke from the fires that stretch from US to Canada here at some point. The wall will keep any away from Mexico

    Joking, sports fans.. don’t take rhe snark too seriously.

  23. Today was just good enough, they we are about to embark on a journey to
    DQ. First time out for the Mrs. Since last Sunday.

  25. So, you’ve heard me mention several stations that are poorly calibrated and their temps run too warm. One I had forgotten to mention was Manchester NH. Add that to the list. To prove this is the case, SAK is currently doing research of a couple of these stations against COOP stations with reliable readings within a few miles of each. So far, the data is proving what he and I have both said to be 100% correct. More to come on this in the not-too-distant future.

    3. We are consistently several degrees different from Sutton center on one side and from my daughter in Uxbridge on the other which are both a few miles away. Is there a way to compare at the site?

  28. Quick peak at the latest GFS run wind speeds at 500mb in the 45-55 range so that is a good amount of wind shear in the 5pm -8pm time period. The 12z run had wind speeds at 500mb in the 40-45 range for same time period.

    1. We may very well have some severe weather, but I am not seeing what I usually look for. What am i missing?

  29. The persistence of the warmth and especially humidity the past few weeks has been impressive. Obviously today’s not the best example with the lower humidity, though still warm. But I agree with TK that it’s pretty much nothing but above normal temperatures and humidity for the foreseeable future. It remains a precarious pattern for hurricane strikes as well, but luckily even as we start to head into the peak months there are no indications of the Atlantic coming alive in the next two weeks.

  30. I think the storm threat from Wednesday onwards will be similar to what we saw much of this past week. Tropical air with daily shower/storm opportunities, but mostly focused well inland, where activity could be scattered to widespread versus more isolated to the east. Wednesday may be the most “interesting” day because the warm front will be in the area, but there’s still a lot of timing disagreements among the models.

  32. A couple of quick, non-weather items:
    Middleboro High grad (and my former student) Sean Newcomb came within one strike of tossing a no-hitter for the Atlanta Braves this afternoon against the Dodgers. He had a perfect game into the seventh and had a no-hitter after 8.2 innings. Newk picked up his 10th win of the season.
    And the Red Sox are 41 games over .500 for the first time since 1946.

    JP Dave and Mrs. OS: Hope the DQ adventure was fun on this beautiful night!

    1. The Braves are a very balanced team. If I were another NL team or even one of the juggernauts in the AL I would not want to face them.

      And yes, I remember September 27, 1946 well, when the Sox went to 41 games over .500. It was a typical fall day, around 60F. Fenway was not exactly packed with fans as I recall. I was only 28 at the time.

    2. My son in law said he saw that, Captain. Makes me proud just knowing he was your student, so I cannot imagine how you feel

      Ditto that I hope the DQ trip was perfect

  33. I know it’s going to be warm and humid for the foreseeable future. Barry mentioned last month that a significant break in the pattern was in the offing by late August. Likely or not?

  34. Well now Philip I did think of you when I just headed out to the deck. 63 with a 62 DP made for a rather damp seat. I figure if I can sit in a chair packed with snow, I can sit in a dew filled chair. Surprisingly, the snow is more comfortable

  35. Just back from a one week tour of Costa Rica with Sammy. From the rainforest adjacent to Nicaragua to the volcano region of Moana Arenal to the pacific coast in Guanacaste we were everywhere. Did things I never thought I could or would – like ziplining 650 feet above the rainforest and befriending a sloth and a monkey. Amazing adventure put together by Disney. That being said – there’s no place like home and after Costa Rica the climate here feels heavenly!!

  36. Red Sox 41 games above .500 for the first time in 72 years, yet I STILL hear people complaining about how frustrating they are to watch and/or how much they suck. These people have no concept of reality.

    Also to answer an earlier question, yes 1 or 2 degrees too warm or too cold in a station’s temperature reading makes a BIG difference. Mainly because, it’s not correct.

    1. I would agree. Why can’t it be checked at the exact location with at least two perfectly calibrated sets of whatever equipment is needed. If that isn’t possible, then to me the test can’t be definitive proof.

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