Friday Forecast

64 Comments

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Not a whole lot of change to be made for today’s update. After a cold start today, it moderates nicely and we have a milder Friday afternoon and milder air lasting into Saturday before another strong cold front delivers a new shot of chilly air to the region Sunday into Monday. Another cold front approaches Tuesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH or greater over Cape Cod and the islands.
SATURDAY: Clouds most dominant early and late when a rain shower is possible. Sunshine in between. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a rain shower possible early. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain and snow showers. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a rain shower. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Right now it appears an area of low pressure on a front to the south of the area will stay far enough south not to bring any additional precipitation during the October 24-25 period I’d been watching, and high pressure will then take control throughout the period which starts cooler than average then moderates to near to above average.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
This looks like a more unsettled period with probably 2 storm systems to impact the region, likely early and again late in the period (about October 29 and November 2). Plenty of time to work out details.

64 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

      1. Hopefully he can give us just 1-2 more like that and then he can go back to his former self next year AFAIC. 🙂

  3. I hope those systems at the end of the month don’t adversely effect Halloween trick-or-treat activities. Many towns in 2011 canceled them outright.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 30.7 at my house in JP. I thought it would make the 20s for sure, but
    the DP kept rising all night. No frost out there whatsoever.

    0Z euro advertising a biggie for 10/27.

    https://imgur.com/a/CntuOgE

    However way too warm for snow, even in most of NNE.

  5. And kudos to David Price. Great performance.

    How about Devers? Big 3 run dinger off of Verlander.

    And let us not forget about Nathan Eovaldi. In my mind he’s been the hero so far.
    He got 4 precious outs last night in a relief role to go with his superb starts.

  6. Thank you, Tk

    Do you have any idea when showers might be in this area tomorrow? The neighborhood has an Oktoberfest so I’m hoping it will hold off through the afternoon and early evening. Thank you.

  8. Eric is not expecting very vibrant foliage this season due to all the recent heat/humidity.

    Still a lot of green around…except in my pocket. 😉

    One BILLION dollars…wow!!!

  9. Have you all heard about the NOAA saying most of America will see a mild winter? I’ve been trying to explain to people that’s not a lock and depends on a variety of factors but haven’t had much luck getting through to people.

        1. I randomly check in but really check in during winter because forecasting storms during that timeframe fascinate me.

    2. Whatever forecast they see, they take as gospel.

      Example: One almanac comes out with cold/snow – THAT’S the forecast. Next almanac comes out with mild/wet – THAT’S the new forecast and then the “weather people can’t figure it out”.

      It’s bullshit.

      2. They’ve been doing this for years. Foliage…leaf loss is later in season and not as vibrant. It is either warm summer, gyspy moths, winter moths, etc. FWIW…I agree with you, Philip. Our world is getting warmer. And things are shifting.

        Mark Sutton looks the same. Some areas of VT went from green to some sort of yellow brown. I have always thought NH has the most vibrant colors.

    2. Some of those are not really comparable because of time difference. They will be nearly as brilliant in 5 to 7 days.

      1. Hugo’s was traceable to Charlotte

        The woman who facilitates the Dana grief group rarely shares a story but did last night. The 19th anniversary of her dad’s death was October 6. Her mom just purchased a house on Mexico beach, FL. She showed us an aerial photo. Every house in the area of her moms for what looked to be a couple of blocks was completely leveled

        Her moms house AND the RV parked beside it were intact. The RV still stood on the cement block

        Her dad’s name was Michael

        No one has to convince me who protected her moms house 🙂

  14. I really like this new pattern.

    The NW flow aloft, for now, has a lot more sunny days.

    I was surprised by the Dec-Feb winter outlook released recently. It looked more like a traditional El Niño outlook, when I thought we were expecting more of a modoki El Niño.

    1. We are. They will likely be incorrect. But they have a lot of politics involved in their forecasting, unfortunately.

        1. No prob. I love NWS/NOAA but I’m not a fan of the methods going into the long range. When I learned how to forecast, it was by making an actual forecast. It may be wrong, but at least science was going into it and politics left out of it. It’s unfortunate that it’s this way. That’s not meteorology.

  16. I’m in a tell-it-like-it-is state of mind today. 🙂

    Media folks need to STOP making across the board generalizations. SOME trees are more dull than last year, others are more brilliant. What they are not communicating is different areas and different trees react to regional conditions.

    We had a warm/wet 2nd half of summer. For some areas that dulled foliage or made it a little later. Other areas have trees that are running nearly on time. The ones that have a little behind will speed up because we just switched to a pattern that produces sharp cold shots. Too many treat it like it’s all or nothing. Wrong. It’s different every year actually, most of the time subtly. They need to pay attention and get the message across correctly, because to put it bluntly, they’re failing in that effort.

    I’m going to talk to a couple of them tomorrow, hopefully, about this during the SNE Weather Conference. We need better communication.

    As far as the temperature sensor issue, I am not going to be able to speak to the NWS person I wanted to because he was in an accident and is recovering (he’ll be fine). I’m hoping to talk to someone else about it.

  17. Good afternoon,

    Perusing the 12Z Euro, 2 things stand out:

    1. It has the system for 10/24, but it sits to our North. It is there.
    2. The system for 10/28 is a potent system and now wants to be an INSIDE RUNNER,
    not that it would have mattered as it will be just too warm. Drops about 3 inches
    of rain.

    https://imgur.com/a/rFzo6vT

    1. 2 days ago I thought the ECMWF was better than GFS.
      Yesterday I was split.
      Today I think GFS is better.

  20. JP Dave as far as the models, more the general idea the GFS migrated to with a main system around Oct 29, versus it being much earlier than that.

  21. Local TV media personality…already mentioned coastal flooding, damaging wind, heavy rain, regarding a “huge” East Coast storm on day 8 and 9, even though he said days 7 and 8. GRR!

      2. I just don’t think they should go into detail even with a “possibly”. People hear all the extreme words and forget the “possibly”. It’s adequate to say there is a storm threat, then detail it within a few days. Every time they say stuff like that this far in advance something negative comes of it.

  22. Ocean air…..sitting on the deck with cloud cover tonight, I looked up and was surprised to see a plane directly overhead and lower than the ones I could hear coming from a considerable distance last night. It really is amazing, isn’t it

    1. Vicki, just got in and saw this. Yes, it’s so variable and that was an interesting article on the inversions that cause the difference. I’m one of those who associated a temperature inversion with the stuck-in-place fog or cloudiness. Better understanding of it now.

      It’s great how you sit out on the deck in all kinds of weather. I would be using a goose down jacket or quilt for sure.

      1. You gave me a smile. I think most sane people would be wearing goose down. I love nature and the peace of nighttime and I feel closer to Mac out on the deck. The fun part is that my five and eleven year old grandsons joined me tonight before they headed to bed. The five year old brought out a blanket that was Macs so papa could be with us too.

  23. 52 here as opposed to 30s last night. I may sleep on the deck. I’m loving the heater. There is a tremendous peace at night. Come join me….but give me warning..otherwise the dog will be surprised 😉

        1. I was out there, but a different kind of out there. Actually when I typed that I was at a DD in Woburn. 😉

  24. Enjoy the conference tomorrow TK. Unfortunately I can’t make it this year, just a little too far of a drive from Albany and with a few too many things I need to do here. I’ll miss it, the talks are always interesting and it’s nice meeting up with other mets; every year I go I feel like I know more people there. Meteorology is great because it’s really a close knit field, and once you make one or two connections the rest start to flow much easier. Earlier today Roger Wakimoto, a pioneering severe weather researcher and current AMS president, gave a seminar on tornado lofted debris here at UAlbany. It was very interesting. The accessibility of some of the real higher ups in the field is something that I don’t think a lot of other fields have. Lot of great people in meteorology 🙂

    1. Sorry you can’t be there! A lot of climate talks this year. On my way out the door now. I’ll let you know how it was. 🙂

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