Saturday Forecast

52 Comments

10:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
Low pressure sits over southern New England this morning and is responsible for the murky start with overcast, drizzle, and areas of fog lingering after last night’s heavier rain has moved away. But a change will take place during the day as the low pressure departs and intensifies fairly rapidly while moving away. A system that does this draws dry air rapidly into the region it just left, and this is often done with plenty of wind. Though the wind will not end up as ferocious as it did a week ago today, you will notice it by afternoon and evening. This wind will also be transporting colder air into the region which you’ll very much feel tonight and early Sunday. So if your city or town is doing Veterans Day ceremonies Sunday morning (some wait until Monday) then prepare for a chill and a lingering breeze. Winds will relax during Sunday as high pressure builds in, and this will set up a more calm but quite cold night Sunday night. For several days we have been keeping an eye on the November 12-14 period for a storm system that may include snow for parts of the region. Don’t worry, I’m not about to forecast a snowstorm. As it is now that these 3 days fall in my DAYS 1-5 period, it’s time for details. And they are that a storm will approach later Monday and there is only the slight risk that the onset of precipitation, if quick enough, may including a bit of snow or mix over interior areas late Monday night. Don’t count on it. The low will track rapidly northeastward right across the region Tuesday with another slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Snow will be confined to the mountains of northern New England. As the system departs Wednesday, however, it will drag down air cold enough to support snow, but by that time all the moisture will be gone, and all that we’d be left with is the risk of a few passing light snow showers, if they were to survive a trip out of the mountains and hills. Any flakes that do manage to make it into the area that day would be insignificant, but they would mark the arrival coldest air mass of the season so far. But that air mass is coming regardless of the occurrence of any snow showers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog, drizzle, and patchy light rain this morning morning then breaking clouds leading to a midday and afternoon sun/cloud mixture. Temperatures fall from the lower 50s slowly through the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SUNDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing morning, 30s afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26 interior, 27-34 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: A storm of rain which may begin as a brief mix pre-dawn. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Windy. Sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a passing snow shower. Temperatures fall into 30s day, 20s night.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
Dry and chilly start and end to the period. In the middle we’ll see a front come through with northern jet stream energy and a storm evolving offshore with a combination of northern and southern jet stream energy.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
An important period of days with a lot of travel and football games around the Thanksgiving holiday which is November 22, and of course “Black Friday” and all that goes with that. A pattern that is progressive and more northern jet stream dominated should just send a front through the area around November 21 and another later in the period. These would be minor events in comparison to recent ones. Temperatures, though variable, would average closer to seasonal averages.

52 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. I’m watching the two flags on the street opposite my house. One at the top of the a
    Street and one two houses down at the bottom. The flags are blowing in opposite directions. One east and one west. Interesting

    1. Air flow around houses. I get that in my own yard all the time. When the wind is northwest, I get a northwest wind in my back yard and often a south wind in my front yard. 🙂

  6. Good morning, y’all.

    1.65″ last night. 4.55″ for the first 10 days of November.
    22.39″ for Meteorological Autumn.
    58.38″ for 2018.
    The all-time record for Taunton is 67.23″ in 1898.

    Taunton River is very, very healthy. Forecast is for minor flooding at 8′ for the river at the Bridgewater sensor around 10 am tomorrow.

    God bless all veterans! Thank you for your service to our country!

    2. Did you see my post on ringing bells tomorrow, Captain?

      And that tells me that my 33+ inches of rain since June 18 May be accurte after all

      1. I did. I asked my pastor to ring the bells at the start of the 11 am service tomorrow. We had a beautiful assembly at our school yesterday. We celebrated two Medal of Honor recipients from Middleborough. Patrick J. Regan from WWI and Wayne M. Caron from the Vietman War. Regan’s act of heroism was in 1918, 100 years ago, and Caron was killed in action 50 years ago. Wayne’s sister was present. Quite moving.

        1. Just reading about your celebration is goosebump moving. How special for all of you and what an experience for the students.

        2. The Sutton cannon is firing 21 shots but they start at 10:48 and end at 11:00. We will be able to hear from our house and will ring the bells I got for the grandkids when rhe cannon fires it’s last shot.

    1. I remember that day. My friend and a neighbor made rh comment that it always snowed before the 11th. I didn’t believe her but then it did just that for a few more years.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Quite a pattern we’ve been in. I think we should consider ourselves lucky that the river flooding issue hasn’t been worse. All these systems have been just progressive enough and evenly spaced enough that we’re able to handle it. We’ll continue this theme as we get a couple days of a break before another soaker on Tuesday. The long running idea has been we dry out for a longer time behind that, and that still looks on track. But we should keep an eye on a possible wrinkle in that plan. NHC is watching a tropical wave move towards the Bahamas. It remains to be seen how this potential system will interact with the mid-latitude pattern, if much at all. NHC is giving it a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days, but it may try to contribute to the formation of an ocean storm by late in the week.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

    1. The clearing is underway west of the city but it’s not 100% clearing right away. It’s going to be a cloud/sun mix, as noted above, for several hours.

      1. If this were really to happen, I could envision the changeover
        coming sooner than modeled. BUT that is a GIGANTIC IF. 😀

    1. I’m in Rhode Island but was inside at a grands birthday party. Word is there were flakes here AND I MISSED THEM. I’m not the least bit upset. Grrrrrrrf

  14. From NWS Boston/Norton for Tues.
    This LLJ is also of concern given the
    possibility of sfc instability with the mixed BL, lower lvls are
    very strongly sheered both due to veering profile and speed
    shear. Perhaps even too strongly sheared. Will need to monitor
    any convection that develops particularly offshore for localized
    spin-ups.

      1. That means if there is any convection, then it could spawn
        a tornado. I see the helicity that’s for sure and it’s there big time.
        BUT there needs to be at least “some” instability and there
        is very very little, if any at all. So I ask the question WHY
        are they even discussing it?????

        1. Because it’s a forecast discussion that really should be just taken as that. It’s a discussion, not an official forecast. There is no problem with them mentioning it. Now that we can see these things much better than we ever did, forecasting the conditions that produce them has improved. But having the conditions to produce them does not guarantee them.

  16. I went back in the whw blog to three years ago.

    Captain…this was your post and it seems important to remember

    When the winds of November come early.”

    Today is the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior, made famous by the 1976 song by Gordon Lightfoot.

    I thought of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald a couple of weeks ago with the sinking of El Faro.

    What a dangerous job it is for our mariners, fishermen and sailors. God bless them all.

      1. Remember it well. I was on a Bus heading home from
        School in Boston. Strange night. There was some thought back then (perhaps still is?) that this outage was due to Aliens. It was interesting speculation to say the least. Long time ago now

  19. Good morning…

    NWS has removed any talks of “spin-ups” for Tuesday.
    Track appears to be more east than originally modeled.

    Not for nothing, but it “appears” that there will be yet another soaker
    for the 16th. Some model divergence on this, but th Euro has it, so I’d say it’s
    a real threat.

    It’s been a non-stop parade of soakers.

    1. Just what we need around here, smoky skies. 😉

      In all seriousness, I have to agree with the President that CA needs to better manage its forests.

      1. Forests grow. There is more to burn. They’ve also been in serious drought for a long while, so it’s dry, and easier to burn what’s there to burn. We also have over-filled areas INSIDE this vulnerable tinder box with residences. Recipe for disaster. Doesn’t get easier to figure out than that.

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