Wednesday Forecast

77 Comments

8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
I’ll keep this discussion brief as it’s a busy day for many and you don’t need a book to read here. No big changes anyway. Here comes an arctic front later today, snow showers/squalls possible but not everybody will see them. What everybody will see (or more appropriately, feel) is the arctic air that prompts the nickname “Cold Turkey” for Thanksgiving 2018, which will be the coldest in recent time, perhaps the coldest daytime since records have been kept. There will be wind along with the cold between high pressure approaching from the west and the low that gave rain and snow to the region yesterday, now a major storm in the Canadian Maritimes. For Black Friday shoppers, expect cold, but less wind as high pressure settles overhead. This high will then move off to the east allowing low pressure to approach the region Saturday, but wet weather is likely to hold off until Saturday night, and yes it will be in the form of rain as we’ll have warmed considerably. Sunday, we end up in between that system and another one approaching from the southwest, so it may be a damp day but may not be doing much, if anything, from the sky. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Snow showers/squalls possible north and west of Boston by late afternoon. Highs 34-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times especially morning.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain at night. Temperatures rise to the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
A low pressure area will move into the region as mild air remains in place bringing rain to the region November 26. A drying, colder trend with a few rain to snow showers possible November 27-28. High pressure brings mainly dry weather to end the month of November.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
The weather pattern will feature a split flow (2 jet streams, polar and subtropical). The northern (polar) jet stream will become dominant regarding out weather bringing shots of cold air and a few minor episodes of precipitation while the southern (subtropical) jet stream tries to send a larger system at us around mid period, however much of this may end up passing to the south as the streams to not phase. Temperatures near to below normal.

77 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

        1. I’ll be out too, NW of Boston near the I-495 belt, heading back east, so with luck I may be traveling near or in it. Most people would not consider that luck, but I’m just a little different. 😉

      1. That was actually total luck. I parked, got out, and as I walked to the bridge about 20 feet away from my car this came along.

  5. And yes, I know I have yet to post the winter forecast. It’s 3/4 done. I ended up helping Mom out a bit longer yesterday. She’s still hosting Thanksgiving for us all. 🙂 The ‘cast will be out asap!

  8. Update on the winter forecast…
    I wrote a discussion that I thought was too confusing so I scrapped it and started over. It’s still confusing, but not as bad (I think). I have some errands to run off and on so between those I will finish the month by month breakdown, which is the easy part, and it should be posted by this evening! Thanks for being patient!

  9. Foxboro beat Mansfield last night, 35-33, in a triple-OT thriller at Fenway Park, one of the best games, if not the best game, in 88-game rivalry.
    I agree: one of the prettiest sunrises I have seen. There was line-green Jello color mixed in with deep reds. “Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning!”

    No classes today. Five-day holiday weekend. Waitin’ on possible squalls and cleaning the bathroom.

    Thanks, TK!

  11. Three areas of snow on the radar to my untrained eye:
    One over Old Saybrook, CT area; one north of Provincetown, MA
    and it looks like a squall line want to form from Lawrence, MA to Springfield.

    Is that what I see?

      1. I’d say it goes POOF… Read this from NWS

        .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
        10 AM update…
        Main concern for the afternoon is the risk of a few snow
        showers/isolated squall assocd with the arctic front along with
        brief strong wind gusts.

        Arctic front located from the St Lawrence Valley to eastern
        Lake Ontario with numerous snow showers developing along the
        front. Some heavy squalls as well with lightning noted east of
        Lake Ontario. This activity is in an area of steep low level
        lapse rates and convergence along the front. Guidance suggests
        the steepest 0-3km lapse rates will remain focused to the north
        this afternoon along with best forcing. However, enough moisture
        and convergence for isolated to sct snow showers to survive the
        trip into SNE mid/late afternoon as the front moves through.
        There is a low risk for an isolated heavier squall, mainly
        across the Berkshires and northern MA which will be closest to
        steeper low level lapse rates. The other concern is for brief
        strong wind gusts right behind the front. Soundings indicate
        potential for brief 40-50 mph gusts, especially over higher
        terrain. Will highlight this potential in SPS.

  12. The models are continuing to adjust to the strengthening blocking in the medium range.

    This weekends system has a track that’s pretty favorable for winters precip, however, the cold air has retreated too far from New England.

    Let’s see if the early week follow up system continues to trend further south, so much so, that it’s mostly a miss.

  13. Some thundersnow with the snow squalls in parts of Upstate NY.
    This is like watching a line of showers and thunderstorms and will see what happens when they get to SNE.

  14. These snow squalls don’t last long and not everyone see one but if caught in one of them reduced visibility and slippery roads.

  15. I am heading up to Amsterdam, NY (NW of Albany) later this PM for the Thanksgiving weekend. Numerous snow squall warnings have been issued in eastern NY the past few hours. We’ll see if I get lucky and hit a few on the way up there through the Berkshires. I’ll report later on!

  18. I made the drive home to Wrentham from Albany yesterday evening, definitely missed out on some really good looking squalls that went right over the city. Visibility dropped at least as low as a quarter mile according to the observations there. I don’t think we’ll see anything that intense get into eastern MA.

  19. Thanks all and Happy Thanksgiving!

    Bummer you missed out on that squall that just moved through Albany WxWatcher. That looked like a doozy with thunder, lightning and all!

  20. Well, so far it looks like the squall line is holding together. Mobile in Newton right now. It is approaching the city.

  22. It looks like the line wants to break as it reaches the coast, with You guessed it, the break
    passing right over my house. Snow to the North and South but NOTHING overhead.
    Let’s see IF it shakes out like that. 😀

    1. Steady snow shower now. I certainly cannot describe it as a snow squall, that’s for sure. Perhaps in a few? Nah, I doubt it.

      1. On radar it looks like the break in the line is virtually overhead
        as I suspected it might be. 😀 😀 😀

  26. Oh boy driving up to central Maine and ran into some intense squalls. Zero visibility on the highway. Pretty scary stuff.

  27. Went through the squall in Windsor, CT. Heavy wind blown snow. Pretty cool. Fortunately temps were still in the mid 30s so roads were just wet.

  28. Well, the jokorama has passed on through with no fan far whatsoever. Just a bit of light snow.

    The colder air is still lagging behind by an hour or 2 or 3….

    Down to 36 here after a high of 42.

    1. Decent squall experienced by yours truly in Acton MA. I sorta chased it. I was coming from Lowell anyway and went down 495 to 2 and put myself in Wetherbee Land which is a large cornfield next to a wooded area just west of the State Police horse barn. I had to be in that area anyway so I picked W.L. based on the radar. The core went just N of me but still got into a decent area. I took some photos of the approaching and departing squall and a brief video of the onset. It was moderate with wind about 30 MPH.

  29. Thank you, TK.

    In August this year it was very hot in Britain, certainly for typical UK standards. A weather presenter made headlines by using some graphic and vulgar words to describe how hot it was. Note, in Britain, swear words are not censored on network TV. So, everything this weather presenter – Carol Kirkwood – said, was broadcast to a large audience of BBC morning viewers. I should add that Ms. Kirkwood is generally a jolly type, who is very popular in Britain.

    https://newsthump.com/2018/08/10/no-sanction-for-bbcs-carol-kirkwood-over-hot-as-fck-weather-forecast/

  31. Boston (Logan) has tied the record = 24F

    Too bad the thermometer is one degree off, could have established a new record (23F)? Oh well. 😉

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