36 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

1. Thanks tk

2. Thanks TK. Hard to believe that festive snow photo above will be more appropriate for the Mid-Atlantic than for us. Did I hear correctly that WSW’s are already in effect for the Carolinas?

   I am also disappointed that warm/wet pattern from the fall is back for mid month. 🙁

   1. It’s not too hard to believe since that was the expected pattern per my (and some other) longer range forecasts.

      The mid month wet/mild episode is probably a one or possibly two-timer, pending the result of the event following that one. It’s a different pattern than the one we’re in now but also different from the one we were in before. And the cold is coming right back to the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast by December 21.

      Yes there are watches out for that area, as there should be. This split flow pattern (which we’ll see several times between now and March) tends to deliver above normal snow for the Mid Atlantic and even Southeast.

      1. Now I am going to be concerned for my relatives as those areas can’t handle even several inches of snow like we do. A few years ago Richmond VA received 14” of snow and their schools were closed for an entire week. Up here that amount maybe 2 days at the very most.

         1. They’ll be ok. I don’t think they are in for an insane winter, just a snowy one.

3. Thanks TK !

4. Thank you, TK.

   What might the warmer pattern mean for precip in northern New England mountains?

   1. They will probably get one rain event that won’t have much of a negative impact. We are not going to be warming to the 2015 levels – not even close.

      1. Thanks.

5. Thank you, TK.

6. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Your outlook extends to 12/21 with virtually no prospects for Christmas Snow.
   Looking bleak. You need to pull something out of your bag of tricks and fast. 😀

7. Something will sneak up on us sometime before x-mas

   1. That is the “hope”, but not necessarily the reality. Time will tell.

   2. I agree . I have a hunch we do not go the month of December without accumulating snow Boston / South . Just a hunch that’s all

      1. It would be a shame to end 2018 with 0.1 inch (Logan). 😉

         1. We’ll probably grab some snow between Christmas
            and the New year, just not before Christmas. Well at least that is the way my current negative thinking is going. Let’s hope for a white Christmas. I’m sure TK will do everything in his power to make it so.

            1. I been negative for the past few weeks, I got excited about this system, got my mind off of stressful things.

               1. There was some hope for this system, but it got flushed down the hopper this week. 😀

         2. Don’t forget the start of 2018 although I have no idea what we had between January and last storm.

            1. We generally look at Seasonal Snowfall and
               not yearly, although there are stats for both.

8. Normal December snowfall @ Logan = 7.7”

   The way things are looking, the 0.7 may be hard to achieve.

   1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!

      My sentiments exactly!

9. 7 day forecasts https://imgur.com/a/IaIfs52

10. 12Z GFS advertising some Norlun/Ocean Effect snows on the 12th.
    Norlun activity linked to the 2nd storm that develops from the system we
    have been discussing and move OTS but has a link to the high to the North.
    The combination brings some convergence from Norlun connection and moisture
    in off of the ocean.

    Interesting. Did someone mention “sneaky” snow?

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php?run=2018120712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=129

    1. Potential Kuchera snow from it.

       http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018120712/144/snku_024h.us_ne.png

       1. Likely not enough for a white Christmas, but perhaps enough
          to make it look festive for a day or 2. 😀

          1. Just shred a bunch of paper and sprinkle it on the lawn.

    2. Now, lets see if the EURO similarly puts the high pressure area to our north- northeast also, helping to turn the surface and 850 mb flow NNE in southern New England.

11. I’m not really sure there will be big snows in the mid-Atlantic this weekend.

    Storm is suppressed and stretched out enough, that I don’t think a lot of precip will make it far enough north, where the whole column is cold enough for snow.

    I think there might be a small to moderate area that has to deal more with sleet or freezing rain.

    1. The 12z GFS sends the storm so far south that it is a complete miss even for Richmond.

    2. The 18Z NAM would agree with that assessment. Seems to indicate a
       fair amount of sleet.

       1. Snow appears to be confined primarily to the mountains
          of Western North Carolina with a bit spilling into Virginia
          and that is about it.

12. The FV3 is trying to conjure up a white Christmas at the end of its run.

    1. Conjure up is the correct word. 😀

13. NAM shows pretty sharp cutoff in the snow

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018120718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

14. You’ll wake up to a new post.

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