Wednesday Forecast

56 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)
High pressure moves overhead today then offshore Thursday with dry weather and a moderating temperature trend. A potent low pressure area will travel west of New England Friday and early Saturday on its trek from the Tennessee Valley to southeastern Canada, dragging up warm air and tropical moisture, making the first day of winter on Friday (solstice 5:23PM), feel more like a spring day in many aspects. We’ll have to be alert for possible flooding and wind damage during the passage of this system. It gets out of here Saturday, which may start on the wet side but will transition to drier, but still be rather mild with only a gradual cool-down. More seasonably chilly air arrives for Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely with embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts likely all areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Risk of rain showers early. Temperatures fall from the 50s to the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s then remain steady during the day.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Generally seasonable cold expected during this period. Mainly dry except some snow showers possible from a weak passing disturbance early in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
A milder and wetter start to the period then drier and seasonably chilly. Another system may bring unsettled weather within the first couple days of the New Year.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK

    South Central, welcome. You are 15 miles west of me? I don’t think we have others in that area so your weather obs will be fun to hear. I am walking, or perhaps writing, proof that you don’t need specific knowledge but just a love for weather.

  8. Thank you Vicki!
    Yes I can be your early warning system with thunderstorms as they usually hit me a few minutes before you.

  9. Thank you, South Central.

    This is a banner day. We have a new member and two very special members I have not seen in a while and have missed. No wonder the sun is shining so brightly!!!

  11. New Bedford, Fall River and those south coastal locations that have tidal rivers may have an interesting day Friday.

    All that heavy rain will be flowing down river, meanwhile, at some points of the day, a storm surge on top of a high tide will be pushing ocean water up river. Potential probably exists for some flooding.

    1. Mrs. Fantastic is also a teacher, a middle school teacher. She drew outdoor bus duty for the month of December. She has had great, storm-free weather for December. Her streak looks like it will come to an end in a big way Friday afternoon (the last school Friday of December) with strong rains and winds!!!

    2. I am a little bit concerned about possible severe weather.
      Helicity will be high and it wouldn’t take much instability to get
      one of those “spin ups”. We shall see.

      Most models say no, but the Euro says be mindful.

      1. Thanks OS. What I find is grapple is supercooled droplets that freeze on snowflakes. Is that correct? Or too broad? It seems to have arrived with the snow squal the other night

        1. It’s more that some melting had occurred while the snow flake is descending and it coalesces into a soft white ball, but not a complete melt such that it reaches the ground as rain or sleet if cold enough to re-freeze.

  15. I think today’s runs offer a hope at some snow late Christmas Day into the early morning of Boxing Day for southernmost New England.

    For some reason, I have a feeling this one might keep on future runs.

    1. Its during a time frame that the 500mb pattern is between 2 somewhat similar set-ups (this Friday and the middle of next week).

      Sometimes just prior to that reload and repeat pattern, you can sneak a system and a 500 mb setup conducive to a quick snow event.

    1. Fascinating! thank you.

      On one there were ice needles.

      Ok, see if anyone has seen this before.

      One time back when I was in High School, one time there were ICE NEEDLES
      falling from a clear sky. It was amazing.

      OVERVIEW

      ice prisms

      Small, unbranched ice crystals in the form of needles, columns, or plates that form at low temperatures (below −30 °C) from cloud or clear sky. See diamond dust.

      From: ice prisms in A Dictionary of Weather »

      Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology.

      Well when I witnessed it, it was cold, but NOT -30C Perhaps single digits or teens at most.

      1. I have not seen this but find it fascinating well. Awesome that you witnessed it. From a clear sky would be unreal.

  17. 47 hours, 53 minutes to go, Tom. (Not that I am counting, mind you)…
    I know you share in my excitement and anticipation, amigo.

    1. oh my goodness …… I’ve been doing the same countdown all week. Started at 102 hrs this past Monday Morning at 8am.

      1. Are we talking about the start of Christmas Vacation.

        Were either you a Scrooge and assign home work over
        the vacation. To me teachers were real Kill Joys and Debbie Downers by RUINING vacations with Home Work)!(@&*(#&!*()@&*#()!*@()#*!()@#*()!*@#()*!@)(#*!()*@#(!*@()#$

          1. Same philosophy. I will be taking a break until the day before school resumes, so I would never ask my students to do work if I am not.

      2. With Thanksgiving so early (and no snow/weather days), this certainly has been a long stretch!!! I am planning on showing “Polar Express” en español on Friday. Just my luck, the school will lose power during the storm!!! 🙂

        1. Agreed.

          I think we have settled on Rise of the Guardians.

          We then have a very short curriculum related activity afterwards.

  21. Too bad no repeat of December 26, 2010 Blizzard with what the 12z EURO is showing.
    SouthCentral welcome to the blog!

  22. Thanks JJ!! Great blog to be a part of.

    Wow! That would be an impressive slug of rain if it materializes as modeled. With the ground being frozen to some degree that may cause some rivers to run at minor flood stage due to run off I would imagine.

    1. I was in framingham yesterday and the water levels I watched for the 37 years we were there we very high for this time of year. In Sutton I am not as familiar. We have what seems to be more of a dam type system where water is held for summer and then released in fall. I’m probably using the wrong terminology. Some of the smaller areas are very high here as well though

      I need to look into it to see if it has something to do with lower population or just a system needed to keep the flooding down. Being from this area, you may know more.

  23. In addition to the rain threat there is the potential for some strong gusty winds. I see wind alerts up for the Cape and Islands and would not be surprised to see those expanded tomorrow.

  25. I’d sure appreciate help/knowledge. My two nieces are planning to leave DC Friday for San Francisco. To the best of your knowledge, Will weather be bad enough in that area to cause delays.

    Thank you in advance

    1. The worst will be by them pre-dawn or very early morning so minor delays at worst in my opinion.

        1. Temps in the lower 60s pre-dawn through early morning will certainly keep them far from anything frozen. 🙂

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