Saturday Forecast

76 Comments

8:40AM

COMMENTARY
The challenge it has been to forecast medium and longer range stuff the last several months has been more fun than frustrating to me. It’s an approach I must take to this science otherwise it would drive me nuts. And now I wonder if that cold/dry regime I have been expecting which the “negative PNA” and “elusive MJO” have been making me look like a fool waiting for my finally be coming … in March. But then again, maybe it’s just another dangling carrot. Oh well, one step at a time, starting with the next 5 days first. Read on…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
High pressure retreats today, which will still be a nice day. Low pressure cranks up and tracks through the Great Lakes Sunday, bringing what will be mainly a rain event to the region, however it may start as snow/sleet briefly in the pre-dawn hours as just enough cold hangs on initially. Another thing to watch for will be pockets of freezing rain in central MA and southwestern NH especially in elevated valleys where cold air will hang on the longest before being scoured out. The now well-advertised windy Monday will indeed be occurring as what will be a monster-sized low pressure circulation slowly moves through eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. The strongest winds will be Monday, but they will still be gusty through Tuesday. And then it’s “wildcard Wednesday” as the next low pressure area moves into the region. Model forecasts, as expected, have been all over the place with this during the course of the last several days, and as it gets closer and now in the 5-day range it looks like an unimpressive but possibly frozen event. Still some details to work out on this over the next couple days, so will leave forecast wording vague for now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives pre-dawn, may start as snow/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Pockets of freezing rain possibly early in elevated valleys of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Midweek system departs early February 28 as snow/mix/rain (uncertain at this point on precipitation type). Will watch the first 4 days of March for at least one more storm threat but to be honest I am not even close to confident about timing and details so will leave it at that for today and attempt a little more tuning tomorrow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.

76 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Love the commentary. As a meteorologist, this winter has been fun. I am starting to strongly suspect that “atmospheric winter” is going to end quite soon, probably around 3/5-3/10. After meteorological winter ends on Friday, but before astronomical winter ends. Not that it can’t get cool or even snow after that, but I don’t think spring is going to drag its heels this year, and what we have coming for early March looks more like a hiccup than a true pattern change. In fact, it may not even be much of a hiccup. Mostly just more of the same. Neutral to negative PNA. Continued tendency for Southeast ridging. I like the look of the GFS, with a cutter around 3/2, a pretty stout cold shot behind it, then moderating. But it’s not a sustained wintry pattern. And that’s with the MJO in the cold phases. It’s not going to hang out there long, and once it leaves I don’t see any reason an already unfavorable pattern for cold/snow will get more favorable.

    1. Agree with all. There were brief flashes of the pattern that I thought might become dominant, but it never took hold, and when I refer to it taking hold in March, it’s just that, taking hold for maybe a few days longer than it did other times in the winter. 😉 Maybe 3 or 4 instead of 1 or 2. HAHAHA!

      I also agree with the signals for a no heal dragging spring in 2019.

  2. Meanwhile, what may be the most impressive extratropical cyclone to impact the CONUS this cold season is developing today over the Plains. A significant severe weather and tornado outbreak looms in the Southeast today. On the backside of this storm, a blizzard for the central US and into the Great Lakes region. And for the East, first rain, then a lot of wind. The central pressure on this beast may dip below 970mb late tomorrow, a rare sight for a continental low in the mid-latitudes.

  3. Good m0rning and thank you TK.

    I looked at the Euro this morning and wanted to barf. Pathetic.
    In fact, I hurled all over all of the maps. SICK!

    Just bring on SPRING already as I sit here staring at my fishing gear. 😀

      1. Oh I think he knows that now. 🙂 But Dave is like a living comic strip character (yes it’s a compliment). This is the reaction you’re gonna get! 🙂

        1. Great comment TK. If it were different, I’d worry. Dave is a breath of fresh air and never fails to make me smile…always fondly.

    2. Just not the year OS. Start thinking tulip bulbs and patio furniture. Winter starts again here in less than a year.

      2. I looked to see if my crocuses were popping up this morning. They are not. They are later than they have been since we moved here. Just two winters though

        1. Lack of really warm days this winter. Example, we hit the 60s & even 70s a few times the last 2 winters. Nothing like that this year except briefly 60+ one day.

  5. TK Thank you! It is an absolute pleasure to read this blog and see the discussions and analysis of the atmosphere by some very knowledgeable people, this morning’s discussion between TK and WX Watcher as an example. I find this informative, educational, and enjoyable to read. Your passion for weather certainly resonates on this blog. Many thanks !!

  7. According to Barry, Boston has received 80% of its snow total (8.2”) this month.

    Total to date = 10.5”

    Split flow = no more snow?

    1. We can’t define that pattern as one producing “no more snow” this soon. Not in February. Not even in March. See above. WxW and I refer to a pattern that makes it not very favorable for it, but being not very favorable and impossible are two very different things. 🙂

      1. I am not sure I saw any before moving to Sutton. I was so excited to see them the first time after hearing Joshua mention them on here

        They are everywhere here and they torment the littler birds at my feeders and the blue birds. They are right up there with bluebirds in my opinion.

      2. Yes red winged black bird, they live in marshy habitats and grassland areas, I have a fresh water marsh that surrounds the Shawsheen river behind my house, so its prime territory for them. Can’t mistake the sounds of these birds especially in spring.

    1. Just remember though, that map is “bent” to take away curvature and the lines appear even more straight visually, which has a greater impact on how we perceive it. But yes, that’s very zonal. 🙂

  12. I’ll take this winter every single year I loved it . Now I am wishing for a warm summer with no rain on weekends lol .

    1. The EURO monthlies are showing a warm spring but a normal to cool June.
      The CFS Monthlies are showing a warm spring
      Both are showing above normal 2m temps for the summer months.
      In terms of precip looking dry.

        1. I leave for work most mornings by 5:40 and my shift begins at 7:00. In the dead of winter my commute is dark from beginning to end. When DST begins again, it will be the same. Doesn’t get light again during my commute until mid-late April. No one understands my side unfortunately.

  15. Thanks TK and WxWatcher. Also thanks to JPD for your posts which are both informative and humorous at times. I got a good chuckle at your post above 🙂

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Still not giving up on at least one or two more real decent snowstorms before spring arrives. Not that I want that. Days now are getting a little longer; hearing birds in early morning once in awhile. I am ready for spring.

  17. JPD – never stop being you. You aways bring a smile to my face! 🙂

    And thanks to WXWatcher informative posts, too.

    1. I am who I am, I don’t suppose that will change.
      I just try to keep it nice and civil even when I Vehemently disagree.
      That, I am afraid is a challenge, but I am really trying hard.

      Would be nice to see one decent snow storm before the end of the season, but I am afraid that is not in the cards. I think the deck has been rigged all
      Winter. Believe me I have seen cheating at cards before and this
      Winter has that smell to it.

    1. There will definitely be a secondary, but it’s not the right set-up for a “snow” secondary. In fact the Euro has it too far southeast. Looks more like a Hudson Valley to central New England track on it.

      1. I never expected any even remotely meaningful snow/ice anyway.

        Just the usual prolific rain we’ve been experiencing since last fall.

        1. Not all of these have been prolific. The majority of the last several systems we’ve had have not produced that much precipitation.

  21. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Freezing rain only occurs in …

    A. a temperature inversion
    B. a gravity wave
    C. very low pressure
    D. none of the above

    Answer later today.

    1. Few people know that Einstein was awarded a Nobel Prize for postulating (B) during his long career as a meteorologist.

    2. I would have said A so will stick with it

      And so funny. I just drove to hopkinton and back and was thinking I hadn’t seen one of your quizzes in a while. Did you get vibes?

  22. Ch. 4 = snow midweek; rain next weekend

    Ch. 5 = cold/dry all week; wintry mix to rain next weekend

    Ch. 7 = cold/dry all week; rain next weekend

    1. Whoever that was on Ch 7 was contradicting all the maps. That was rough.

      Map shows 45-55 MPH, she kept saying 65 MPH for tops, and not just once. Several times.

      “We’ll see the strongest winds on Monday, especially during the morning, and the evening…” (So basically, Monday.)

        1. It was just an off broadcast.. for whatever reason she was struggling.

          They’ve done a stellar job this winter.

  23. I’m going to be paying a little more attention to FV3-GFS since it’s supposed to go “live” on March 20. With a month to go it’s time to track its performance.

    1. well its been piss poor in terms of its comparison to the other models been worst than the regular GFS so far.

    2. All set there . Plenty of ways to make money snow is just a very small piece of it . I hate winter Philip I seriously do .

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