Sunday Forecast

112 Comments

6:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
10 days ago I noticed my first sign that we may be influenced by a broad Pacific storm system that would likely be a mainly rain-producer. Given the theme of the winter overall, despite some atmospheric indices being favorable for snow events, it is not a surprise that this initial thought turned out to be correct. It is that storm system that impacts us today with our rainfall, but not really all that much rain in comparison to some of the systems we have endured since last autumn, with many areas coming in at under 1/2 inch of rain for this event. Of more note are the winds that are coming as this system departs, and will keep themselves up throughout Monday and even into Tuesday to some degree. The wind will be caused by the fairly tight pressure gradient between the departing low, which will be quite deep, and a fairly strong high pressure area to its and our southwest. We’ll be in the middle or “in the wind zone”. We’ll have to watch for weakened tree limbs and in some cases entire trees that are vulnerable to such events. Scattered power outages are possible. Along with the drier weather and wind will come colder air as well, although this is not going to be arctic cold, just fairly typical late winter cold. When we get to midweek, or the final 2 days of February, we’ll watch a weak system driving out of Canada. This clipper-type system may bring a period of snow/mix to the region in the late Wednesday to Thursday time period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with rain likely, except freezing rain until mid morning central MA and interior southern NH, tapering to rain showers later. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to NE over interior areas early, SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere, then SE to S increasing to 15-25 MPH all areas midday shifting to W during the afternoon from west to east.
TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-60 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH, gradually diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Nighttime snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix possible mainly morning. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)
Been keeping an eye on the early days of March for both potential visits from cold air from Canada and possible storminess. Nothing has changed, but timing is still very uncertain on how things evolve. March 1 enters the 5-day forecast period tomorrow and will detail it then, and try to fine-tune the other days as much as possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.

112 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. I am now getting a bad feeling that we may be done with even minor snow events in SNE. I bet that the split flow will end up verifying. Nothing has gone right for snow thus far. Why should it change?

    According to Barry, midweek snow stays suppressed to our south, then rain Saturday with a high of 42. Even the upcoming cold this week won’t be as cold as originally forecast.

    Thanks TK!

    1. February 24. Not March 24. 🙂 You’ve fallen into the same trap that many do every winter, no matter how active (snowy) the winter has been. You just CAN NOT call snow over in February. You can’t do it.

        1. Yes, but Winter 2018-2019 is still writing itself. We’ve had winters that have existed largely outside of “winter”. 1981-1982 comes to mind. Both major storms were outside of astronomical winter (December 5-6 1981, April 6 1982).

  3. Thanks TK
    The wind to me is the weather story this week with High Wind Warning up for all of SNE Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. I got my battery powered radio and flash lights ready just in case the power goes out.

  5. Thank you, TK!!!
    Good morning, everyone.
    Wrapping up a nice February break.

    TK, do you think we might have an extra day of vacation with the winds tomorrow? Seems to me that the winds might be peaking as we’re trying to get to work and school in the morning. Middleborough had to close schools in October, 2017 because trees blocked streets and buses couldn’t get through.

    Thoughts?

      1. I’ve had the pleasure of seeing some of your vacation photos on FB. You and your family sure know how to do vacations to their fullest.

        1. Thanks Vicki ! Ogunquit, York … those used to be day trips for me when I lived in Lowell. It was great to be up there and we had a lot of fun.

    2. Good question, Captain. I had not thought of that. I’m wondering if school folks will take that into consideration. There is an area near the schools on my side of Sutton that has limbs down even in weaker winds.

      On a more important note, so happy you enjoyed vacation

  8. It amazes me how active a mind can focus on absolutely useless thoughts around 3:00 am

    Last nights musings. It occurred to me that WBZ and WCVB have Mets who have been with them as long as I can recall. Conversely, WHDH does not. It has managed to terminate two chief Mets in quite recent years. I understood Todd Gross to a degree. But I will never understand Pete. Although, I suspect Pete had the same difficulty others here would have with the corporate decrees.

      1. There are some complexities to that entire thing, some of which I don’t even know, but the move was probably for the best at the time.

    1. I was thinking about making my weekly trip to the local farm to shop and wondered how the roads are. It’s jut rain where I am but closer to town center, it is typically a few degrees colder which can make a big difference.

      1. I think in a few cases, some specific locations may be looked at for possible cancellations, depending on the types of students they have and their ways of getting there. These will be isolated cases for sure.

  11. Today is a good example of something I always try to get across (with limited success). It’s not always snowstorms that are hard to maximize. Today’s rain event is being eaten away rapidly on the back side by drying air. It happens with rain too. It’s happening right now. Only near the South Coast in the deeper moisture area is a good rain band holding on (as it was expected to do anyway).

  12. Thank you, TK.

    My leaking wall is desperate for a dry period. And not one that only lasts a couple of days. While not prolific recently the rains/precipitation events we’re getting are like a continuous drumbeat. They just keep coming. This is why I’m not sold on the dry and cold scenario for Wednesday. I think TK is right to include the possibility of snow/mix.

    A spring high pressure area is impacting the low countries. They’re having sunny and very pleasant weather all week – in the 50s and 60s. Their winter was pretty much non-existent. You can count the days with frost on two hands, and even then it was barely below freezing. One of the reasons why global warming is talked about far more in northwestern Europe than here is the fact that winters there have really been almost non-existent for decades. This has been a definite trend, along with much warmer summers than they were accustomed to. Comparing, for instance, the early 80s to now, is like night and day in the Netherlands. While winters were less harsh than New England they certainly had winters then, and their summers were much less warm than ours. Summers now in Holland are still not as hot as ours, but much warmer than 40 years ago. And winters are much milder. The other reason why global warming is alarming to people in the Netherlands is the fact that much of the country is below sea level. With rising seas, the dike systems will not be able to hold back the water at a certain point.

    What I always admired in Holland was the lack of politicization of climate talk. Sure, the country has liberals and conservatives just like we do. Strong differences of opinion are part and parcel of the political debate. But, when it comes to national items of interest or policy they all work together towards common goals: preserving nature as best they can, and ensuring future generations are spared problems that current generations may want to simply kick down the road. Unlike America punting is not an option in Dutch politics or government when it comes to budget deficits, investing in education, and the environment.

    2. A friend who now lives in NYC but grew up in Sweden often says the same, Joshua. We have much to learn from other countries but sadly we will not

    3. the EU has been doing it right for a long time especially the northern countries. They are very pro environment. Sweden’s government has a large chunk of its money going towards natural resources

      1. Luxembourg and Sweden pay $60 and $93 per capita, respectively, for Paris accord. Far greater than other countries except possibly panama.

  14. GFS (at the moment) likes a general 2-4 inch snowfall for Wednesday night / Thursday, maybe a bit less on the South Coast due to mixing and wetter snow.

      1. I don’t really like the Euro for these kinds of systems. It kind of “forgets” the polar jet stream exists sometimes.

  15. You won’t hear this from me often but today’s 12z CMC has what I think is a fairly decent handle on the large scale pattern.

  17. Well, we know at least one thing the FV3 needs major help with. In a depiction of straight rain between 7AM and 1PM today it somehow forecast 1-3 inches of snow for a good portion of central and eastern MA. Oops.

    They may seriously want to rethink their March 20 plan unless they are fixing everything and implementing it all at once. I have my doubts.

  18. TK – Regarding that general 2-4 inch snowfall for midweek that you mentioned, do YOU like it? That’s all that counts AFAIC.

  22. Cat, I saw your question re Todd. TK is right that there was a lot of underlying stuff. He was awesome to work with until he wasn’t. I do find it curious that it is the only major channel that can’t keep Mets. Pete always did a great job but I know he didn’t like the politics. I like JR a lot also. Both are truly upstanding people.

    1. Thank you for the answer. I always like todd. And pete is on eof my favorites. I like JR alot too. I hope he stays with channel 7.

      1. I like Chis Lambert weekday mornings as well. I haven’t warmed up to the recent younger mets just yet.

        Speaking of JR, I haven’t seen him on air much lately.

  23. EURO was the last to jump on board the system we had on Presidents Day. Will see if it happens with the Thursday system.

      1. What I find interesting about these mega snow events is how the Cape always gets practically nothing. Same in 1978 as well.

          1. Enough to cancel Katy Gibbs classes for the first time ever. I was the one everyone “elected” by friends to call to see if classes were cancelled. Surprised?

    3. I recall two or was it three weekends in a row where we had significant snow.

      Longshot…did I miss answers to yesterday’s quiz? I’ve been in and out today.

      Thank you

    1. That’s a great shot from one of my favorite spots in the world: Hermit Lake Shelters. Stayed in the lean-tos countless times.

      Thanks for sending this, Mark.

  32. So TK likes the 12z CMC, eh?

    CMC for Wednesday delivers a light to moderate snowfall:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022412&fh=90

    On Saturday, no cutter but instead tries to pop a coastal to our south and graze us with some light snow…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022412&fh=144

    And next Tuesday, delivers a coastal storm with moderate to significant snow…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022412&fh=222

    1. I still like a light to POSSIBLY borderline moderate snowfall for early Thursday (leaning lighter). I think the weekend threat is there but may be 2 separate systems, one that misses to the south and the other that just drags a cold front through.

      I actually like the snow chances between March 5 and 15 (not necessarily including the start & end dates, just somewhere in that window).

    1. Yup. I was just outside taking some local photos in the calm foggy mist and thinking about what’s to come. Completely fascinating to me how the weather can change in one location so much in basically very little time. 🙂

        1. I should have added that my youngest went out with her family to take some photos. I’m looking forward to seeing both of yours on FB

              1. I am a minimalist when it comes to editing. I will adjust exposure and contrast basically to make up for limitations of the camera. Rarely do I do anything to color unless I think the camera botched it. I basically try to recreate with the eye saw if I feel the camera fell short. Now and then I will heavily edit a photo on purpose to give it a surreal or cartoon appearance, or completely different color scheme, and when I do that it comes with a label that it was done that way on purpose. 🙂

              2. I think ditto for her. She believes a photo should be what is seen and nor what the photographer wants it to be so will embellish it

                2. Exactly. I do like to have fun with one now and then though. It is fun to see what you can create with a photo. Kind of makes up for the fact that I’d suck at painting. 😉

  35. Ch 25 weather caster made a booboo. Showed the map of gusts (50+), said they were gusts, then called them sustained winds. These errors are not a product of inability, but in my opinion they are a product of having very little time to actually put together the TV weathercast for need of having to update social media and answer questions pretty much nonstop. Leaves little time for on-air prep. Harvey has alluded to having no time to breathe in the world of multiple info sources compared to how it once was.

      1. I felt bad because I knew what they were trying to say. What makes it sad is that they are trying to fit all this info in and you can see the struggle taking place. This is not easy. I wouldn’t want to be on TV at all.

        1. It is just tragic. I wish the general public understood this. But corporate does and doesn’t care. They Mets are expendable.

          1. I miss the days of Don Kent, Bob Copeland, etc. Even forecasting a raging blizzard they were calm and still brought their point across to their viewers. Very few bloopers. They had limited on air time as well.

            1. I don’t think it has to do with the met. It has to do with the dictates of corporate and social media as TK explained. Hey didn’t have to to have the answers yesterday. I am sure They’d be doing the exact same

            2. There is much truth to “too much information”. There comes a point where there is far more being shoved in the face of a viewer / reader that they come away not really understanding what is going on or what is expected. This is part of the reason why I have always kept my blog so basic.

              1. Absolutely. It is a shame they are not allowed to so the same…both by corporate and by the demanding public. Back in the day, corporate was very different

                1. I absolutely agree that there is “too much information” these days. And to extend Vicki’s point, the viewing public demands their snow maps no later than 5-7 days in advance. 😉

                  Having said that, I bet at least ONE tv met will have a snow map for midweek before end of day
                  tomorrow! 🙂

                2. Whdh demanded that their Mets had the first map up. I know this for fact. It didn’t matter if it was right…it just had to be first.

  36. You’re probably right about the snow map, Philip. But that’s how it goes in TV land right now.

    If it’s warranted, the Tuesday morning update will have snow amounts from me.

  37. Wind is picking up and a whole lot of melting….the ground may have trouble holding the trees with shallower root systems

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