Wednesday Forecast

45 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)
Not alot of adjustment to be made to the forecast in the short term. High pressure controls the weather today which will be quite nice, but the famous coastal sea breeze will be at work chilling those areas to 10 or more degrees lower than some inland locations this afternoon. High pressure slides offshore and a warm front crosses the region slowly on Thursday, which will be an overcast day with a threat of some wet weather, but no heavy rainfall. We then enter a broad warm sector with a southerly air flow which will remain with us from Friday through the weekend as low pressure cuts off in the Tennessee Valley and drifts slowly toward New England. Rain showers are possible during the Friday-Sunday period, but will likely be concentrated in a 12 hour window sometime Friday night to the middle of Saturday, as timing stands now. This may have to be adjusted so watch comments and future updates for my ideas on what may happen.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast where it will fall back during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain at times. Highs 55-60 coast, 61-66 interior. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of passing rain showers. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 63-68 just inland from the South Coast and south-facing portions of the eastern MA coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 61-68 except 55-60 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible. Lows 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 63-70, cooler South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)
One upper level low dissipates while drifting through the region early in the period while a second one approaches from the west and moves through mid period, combined with a front in the vicinity, to bring the best chance of wet weather around April 24. Less threat of rain later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Another low pressure area may impact the region with occasional wet weather favoring April 27-28 before drier weather and a shot of cooler air to end the month and start May. Low confidence forecast.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. You too, amigo.
      Got a lot of yard work done yesterday.

      TK…how serious is the flood threat throughout the next couple of weeks?

  3. Looks like a few weeks of crappy weather just in time for baseball season. How am I not surprised. Ugh

  5. Thank you, TK! Beautiful morning. I started the day by sipping tea and sitting on the deck to watch a huge red tailed hawk sitting in a tree in the yard…..I had the sense he was watching me also 😉

  6. I haven’t given an answer to the quiz i posted the other day. I’ve been waiting to see Captain on here first.

    Most important, Captain and Tom – I hope you both have wonderful vacations.

    The quiz. Not weather related but thought was fun

    Name a country. Remove the last letter of the country’s name. Rearrange the remaining letters to make a word in that country’s language that means country.

      1. That didn’t take long!
        Spain…
        Remove the n and rearrange Spai to form
        País!!!
        Now I know why you were waiting for me!
        Made my day, Vicki! Thanks! 🙂

  7. Good morning and thank you TK. And I agree, yet another beauty!!!
    This Spring hasn’t been bad at all so far. I am liking it.

    Did it ever feel good walking out there this morning with the sun shining on my face. Really a gorgeous day. Keep em coming. 🙂

    I am a complainer to be sure, but not even I have any complaints about this Spring.

  8. Thoughts on the April 17th morning….

    The Sox are 18 games in and their record stands at 6 wins and 12 losses.
    NOT championship caliber!!!!!

    There is something fundamentally WRONG with this team and I am not sure what it is. My feeling is that it has gone to their collective heads and they think they can win
    by going through the motions, ie mailing it in. It just doesn’t work that way.

    Upper management “solved” all of their problems by designating Blake Swihart
    for assignment and calling up Sandy Leon. How’d that work out last night as
    SALE laid another STINKER of an EGG!!!

    This team had better wake up FAST!!! else all will be lost!!

    I have given them a chance. I am now on the WAR PATH!!!!

    THE SOX SUCK!!!! No way around that.

    1. It’s clearly a collective mental issue. The talent is there. They can easily have a record reverse of the one they have.

  10. Thanks TK
    Mark congrats to your Islanders on sweeping the Penguins. Nobody saw that just like nobody saw the Blue Jackets sweeping the Lightning. The Lightning were ever a Presidents Trophy winner to be swept in the first round of the playoffs.
    As for as the baseball game the sports psychologist James Paxton went to see worked as he pitched a gem against the Red Sox.

    1. Awesome win by the islanders last night, I’m excited. Would have never imagined they would have swept. Isles defense just smothered them. Still can’t get over TB losing. That’s one of the biggest playoff flops in NHL history.

    1. And where did that come from?
      There appears to be a rather large discrepancy between the NAM and the GFS.

      The Euro looks pretty wet, so I assume that is where your 1-2 inches comes from.

      Still a few days away. We shall see.

        1. It’s too early to know those amounts for sure, and that doesn’t mean it will rain all day. Most of that would probably fall in a couple hours (regardless of the amount).

  12. Eric Fisher
    ‏Verified account @ericfisher

    Early estimate for Friday eve through Sunday AM rainfall amounts looks like 1-2″ for our area. GEFS has some juicy output and EPS also has good odds of 1″+

    Wouldn’t rule out a chance for some localized 3″ totals , especially toward Western Mass

  13. Eric Fisher
    ‏Verified account @ericfisher

    Also tracking a heavy rain risk for Saturday. An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued for western New England…but the exact axis of heaviest rain totals still TBD. #wbz

    1. Good to note that Eric is as careful as TK to point out that this is an early estimate and the exact axis of heaviest rain totals still TBD

      For me it is important to know the possibilities for a holiday weekend. If you don’t have a plan B or C, you got nuthin’

  16. According to Harvey, widespread 1-3” for Holy Saturday. His timeframe is Friday night through Saturday night, hopefully moving offshore on Easter Sunday.

      1. Yes, I meant to say that. Thank you. He did use that word, which is often not really taken into account.

  17. There is a lot of model “rip & read” going on in the TV media world tonight. Calling a 2-day steady rain? Not happening. Won’t say who it was. Doesn’t really matter. It’s just that it’s going on.

      1. A couple of them seemed rather confident but more power to them. I’m not, and I have a meteorological feeling it may not rain all that long. That said, it could rain heavily for a while in some locations.

        1. The theee major stations made it clear. I posted all above. I don’t pay attention to off stations. Although I haven’t checked Pete.

          If it is overlooked by those who read………… 😉

  18. Just arrived in New Market VA in the Shenandoah region of VA. Doing Luray Caverns and Skyline Drive tomorrow before heading to DC Fri/Sat. It’s full fledged spring down here with everything green and blooming. Still 72 degrees despite the sun having gone down.

    1. Awesome Mark. This was always the week we drove to Charleston. I always wanted to do skyline drive. Have a perfect vacation.

    2. Enjoy Mark !

      We just had friends arrive and I think they had just done skyline drive the day before. They loved it.

  19. A majority of the morning’s have been mild down here. It’s currently 63F with a 55F dewpoint.

    Such a different weather pattern than 1 year ago. Very cool last year, this trip has been mostly summerlike.

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