DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Today’s discussion will be much shorter than yesterday’s, mainly because there are not really any changes to the forecast beyond minor tweaks. Summarizing, we enter a milder westerly air flow but still have a couple disturbances that may produce rain showers, favoring areas south of Boston with timing pre-dawn Monday, and far northwest of Boston later Monday (a disturbance I’m giving a bit more weight to than previously). A bubble of high pressure brings nice weather Tuesday before low pressure approaches Wednesday, a day that may dawn bright but end wet and windy.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night, favoring areas south of Boston. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Risk of a late-day rain shower central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW then diminishing.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 15-30 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)
High pressure approaches from the west keeping it cool, dry, and breezy October 18, then settle to the south of the region with dry weather and a warming trend October 19-20 weekend into early next week. A cold front approaching sometime early in the week at least increases the wind and may bring a rain shower risk as well.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring a rain shower risk to start the period followed by a shot of much cooler air. I’m no more confident about the set-up later in the period, but still see a potential set-up that could put low pressure south of the region by the October 26-27 weekend, but not sure if it would be close enough for impact, if it even set-up that way. So for now will stay with the mostly dry and moderating trend for late period but with very low confidence.