Sunday Forecast

88 Comments

8:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)
Low pressure moves northeastward through the interior Northeast, sending the triple-point of a warm front / cold front occlusion into New England where a new low will form by tonight over and just east of the region, then drift around out there and weaken early in the week. This introduces an unsettled stretch of weather to the region which will be wettest later today but will hang around in some form into if not through midweek, which includes Halloween on Thursday. Don’t read this and think we have 5 washed out days ahead. That’s not the case. This will be an unsettled stretch of weather, where we will be having to figure out details on lots of clouds and occasional wet threats.
Today’s is waves of lighter rain as warm air moves in aloft, and then numerous rain showers, some heavier, later day and evening as the front arrives and cyclogenesis ensues. Tomorrow’s weather will feature a lot of low level moisture, so an overcast day with drizzle and areas of fog and a risk of a few periods of rain seem likely. Things should ease up somewhat Tuesday into Wednesday with the decaying low offshore and a nose of high pressure from eastern Canada poking in, but still enough onshore flow that it may make any clearing hard to come by. Thursday well be watching the approach of a new system from the west, and earlier I’d been thinking we may get into a warmer southerly flow, but that may be prevented if a frontal boundary is not allowed to push northward enough. There is still the chance it does push through and we do get into the warm sector, and if that happens my temperature forecast below will be under-done. For now my thinking this far out is that any significant rainfall from that approaching system will be held off until very late Thursday night or even next Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with spotty light rain. Overcast afternoon with increasing rain shower threat west to east, some of which may be moderate to heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Drizzle and areas of fog. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH, possibly shifting to S.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
Low amplitude pattern, generally west to east flow, but mean trough position in Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This pattern is cooler, and slightly less unsettled, but still systems moving through (the one mentioned before coming through November 1, and two weaker ones around November 2 and 4) bringing unsettled weather threats.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Watching for a weather system and precipitation threat in the late November 6 to early November 8 time frame. Drier weather more likely thereafter.

88 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Rain amounts for today’s system vary widely from model to model.
    So, I guess I’ll throw a dart in the middle and say around an inch, give or take.

    10Z HRRR had 1.76 inches for Boston, next run, 11Z only had 0.90. Go figure.

  6. Thanks, TK, and Happy Sunday to all!

    SSK…again, thanks for your lawn care advice Friday. Cut the lawn shorter yesterday and it looks great! Looks like a golf course! In fact, I am hosting the WHW Open this week!!! 🙂

    Go Pats!

  9. In contrast to North Conway, there’s a pretty decent warm sector on this system, with temps and dew points near 70F not too far south of New England.

    This, low track, dynamics, etc …. I wonder if the Pats game might get a brief delay with lightning at some point and I wonder if Block Island eastward along the south coast gets something warned late afternoon/early this evening due to ‘radar indicated rotation’…….

  14. Raw fall day. I do enjoy this weather with the cool breeze, smell of leaves on the ground, and on and on.

    0.37 at 49 F

  18. Heavy rain and 49 degrees in Coventry CT.

    0.80” in the rain gauge so far and rapidly increasing.

    Looks like the rain is going to shut off much earlier than expected. Back edge is already into western CT.

  19. Looking at radar, steady rain should be gone in time for the Pats game, though could still be some lighter showers/drizzle that linger into the game, especially first half. The whole system is several hours ahead of the schedule. Poor performance by short range guidance on this system, much too slow and suspect most models will end up too high on QPF. Sun’s breaking out here in NJ where we definitely came up well short of what most guidance was showing for rainfall.

    The over-forecasting of QPF is becoming an epidemic across large swaths of our modeling. Not sure what’s happened as it hasn’t always been that way. But most of the time it’s a safe bet to right off the bat cut ~25% off the mean QPF in guidance and then adjust from there.

    1. Wow! Thanks WxW. I was concerned about fumble/drop ball potential for the game. Hope your thoughts verify. 🙂

        1. Those winds should die down this evening as well as the rain tapers off. Big slug of rain and likely continued gusty winds for eastern MA over the next 60-90 minutes but improvement beyond then.

  20. Hi gang! Anyone have any thoughts on when the heavy or moderate rain might clear 495 belt? We are thinking of a run in to Cambridge (from Harvard) later if the rain lets up before dark.

  21. AccuWeather Quiz

    The epic snowtober Halloween nor’easter happened …
    A. Last year
    B. In 2011
    C. In 1991
    D. Exactly 100 years ago

    Answer later today.

  23. My Weather system displayed: “It’s raining cats and dogs
    Seriously it did and it was pouring.

    We’re up to 0.63 inch here and still going strong.

    1. No, just some really heavy rain and gusty wind the last few hours. Finally starting to lighten up a bit now.

  26. Up to 1.15” here in Coventry and still raining. Still into the predicted precip forecast range here despite the quicker shutoff though the higher end ranges definitely won’t verify.

    6.28” now on the month and will add more to that this week. 50.51” on the year.

  28. Yes, I would expect that BB will have some more choice words for meteorologists if asked after the game 😉

  30. From WxWatcher above at 2:23 PM:
    Big slug of rain and likely continued gusty winds for eastern MA over the next 60-90 minutes…

    I would agree with this! It’s been pouring rain for a while here.

  33. Just an awful mess in CA. Statewide emergency and 200,000 mandatory evacuations. I believe some Evacs are to be safe and not due to immediate danger.

    We are trying to reach Macs brother and family but have not been able to. I’ll sure be more relaxed when we do reach them

    2. Mess is a good word for it. Throw the power shut offs in the mix and it’s a very chaotic situation. I understand the reasoning behind the shut offs but I don’t support them. A two sided issue for sure but I don’t think it’s been thought all the way through.

      These prolonged critical fire weather conditions are also taxing on meteorologists out there. What’s important in the weather is much different out there than here. Fire weather is their severe weather, and providing support for these fire outbreaks is a big deal. A very close friend of mine works at the NWS Los Angeles office; it can be a rather quiet office for long stretches at a time but it’s all hands on deck in times like this.

      I hope everything works out for the best for you!

      1. I responded to you both but must not have posted. Too busy keeping family up to date.

        I am not sure how I feel about power outages either WxW. PG&E has a horrible rep so I don’t trust them to do what is right

  34. The rain shield definitely filled in this past hour. Back edge still moving in but the rain totals have caught up, though most places will still finish with less than most of the guidance showed. Back edge of the steady stuff is just about through Foxboro, but there will be additional lighter showers through at least kickoff time. Unlike down here, there’s not a sharp line of clearing over SNE.

    Partly cloudy and 71 with a 68 dew point here. Steamy!

    1. I didn’t do a great job with the timing on this one. But on the plus side the absolute heaviest was out of the way before kick off. My brother is there, and he and many of the other fans will still be chilly and wet, but at least they won’t be poured on quite as steadily. 😉

      Remember when the GFS was adamant on the cold air getting here for Halloween? 😉 .. I don’t think the question was whether or not that was going to be right. It wasn’t. The question has always been do we bring a warm front through and get into a southerly air flow or stay stuck in a cooler easterly one?

      1. Ha, speaking of Halloween, the GFS is a nightmare! It does look like we’ll at least get some cooler weather the first week of the new month, but I’m not sure that’ll have much bite or staying power. Probably more of the “cool” but not cold low amplitude pattern you described.

        1. The last week or so I have struggled mightily with the pattern. Just have to ride these slumps out.

      1. Though it doesn’t seem like it rained a lot this month October’s totals will come in well above average.

  37. Macs brother and wife are safe and headed to San Diego for a business trip. He said the nearest evac area is 50 miles north of them. Far enough but he said with 70 mph gusts fires travel fast.

  38. 1.18” here so far. I can definitely verify that it rained hard for a while as we were standing outside watching my 9 year old son’s flag football Playoff games from 9:30 to 3:00. Despite being cold and soaked it was well worth it as they came away with an undefeated season and super bowl win! I cannot complain because this was the only Sunday this season where the weather was bad, we had our fair share of gorgeous Sundays.

  40. Thank you SC. And so much for 50/70 miles away. They just got this photo from their daughters MIL. This is about 3 miles from their home

    https://imgur.com/a/fROjTtz

    This was his comment….These are historic winds and therefore the largest evacuation ever (and under power shut off conditions) but so far no entire towns have burned. The town of Paradise, 17,000, completely burned last year. That was the worst tragedy in the state’s history. Town of Windsor where our niece lives is just beginning to burn.

  43. We’re at 1.70 inches here in JP and temp up to 52.
    I’d say that the model qpfs were underdone if anything. 🙂

    1. that really sounds low? You’re in attelboro correct?
      Looking at radar, it looked like you got pelted. Was something blocking the
      rain gauge? Or was it the Charlie Hole?

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