Thursday Forecast

142 Comments

7:41AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
If you’re an early riser on this Thanksgiving morning, especially in eastern areas, you woke up to rainy conditions. That is a lobe of energy traveling southeastward across the area, one the bridge between an old low pressure system to our northwest and a newly developed low that formed and triggered showers and even some thunderstorms over the region last night and is now in the process of turning into a powerhouse storm as it moves away via the Gulf of Maine. As the storm pulls away today and high pressure starts to nose southward from eastern Canada we will set up a gusty north to northwest wind, delivering chilly air. That air is dry and will help push the early wet weather away during the morning and midday, with just a few lingering rain or snow showers possible for any road races and football games. The chilly, dry, breezy weather will continue for Friday and into Saturday as well. And so ends November. When December arrives, we’ll get early practice on tracking a storm that includes some frozen precipitation. No we’re not about to open December with a big snowstorm, but we will have cold air in place as a broad precipitation shield from approaching low pressure arrives late Sunday or Sunday night, and some areas north and west of Boston will see some accumulating snow before warm enough air gets involved to change it to mixed precipitation or rain. Areas closer to the city and to the southeast may start briefly as snow or mix then go right to rain. While this low pressure area will track just south of the region, at this time of year the ocean water, and in this case the upper air, will be too warm to support snow for long over most of the region. However, any unsettled weather can have some impact on people traveling back into the area or heading back to colleges after the Thanksgiving break.
The forecast details…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy early morning with rain tapering to showers. Breaking clouds mid to late morning with passing coastal rain showers and isolated rain/snow showers interior. Decreasing clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the lower 30s to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix along and northwest of I-95 going to mix/rain but some accumulation of snow/sleet possible. Mix to rain elsewhere. Lows 32-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast with rain (possible mix far northwest) morning, tapering to rain and snow showers west to east afternoon, then a steadier period of rain/mix possible southeastern MA and RI late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Low pressure to the east, high pressure to the northwest means a gusty breezy with dry and chilly weather December 3. But a west to east pattern moves things along and the next system threatens the region with some rain/snow later December 4 to early December 5, but the early trend is for this system to evolve too far offshore for a significant impact. After that threat, dry and chilly weather is expected

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 8-10 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period (December 11-12).

142 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. All of Sunday will be rain free because it will probably start as snow after 3PM. Snow to rain evening.

    2. I think they start as snow and if it comes in quickly enough with enough intensity they will measure, at least the city (we’ll see about the airport sticking out into the water).

  7. Turkeys will thaw in the morning, then warm in the oven to an afternoon high near 190F. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or cold shoulder.

    During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey, causing an accumulation of one to two inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other. Please pass the gravy.

    A weight watch and indigestion warning have been issued for the entire area, with increased stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening, the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers, dropping to a low of 34F in the refrigerator.

    Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday, high pressure to eat sandwiches will be established. Flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50 percent chance of scattered soup late in the day. We expect a warming trend where soup develops.

    By early next week, eating pressure will be low as the only wish left will be the bone!

    (From “Aha!jokes.com”)

  9. From the hill here in Woburn I’m seeing breaking clouds off the my north and northwest. Dry air starting to work in.

    I’ll be heading to Winchester shortly for the annual Woburn / Winchester Thanksgiving football game. Winchester is favored this time with a record of 8-2 against Woburn’s 5-5 record. Though Woburn did finish the season strong with a string of wins so maybe they can take that momentum into Winchester and catch them off guard. 😉 We will see. Just hoping for a good game and everybody to get to go have a great dinner after. 🙂

  10. Thank you TK!

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!!
    Captain that was funny thanks, I could not help but think of the book that I would read to my boys all the time Cloudy with a chance of meatballs , one of my favorites.

  13. It’s too bad there wasn’t a colder airmass behind last night’s dynamic system.

    It’s wrap-around rains tallied a couple tenths and could have been a 1-3 inch Thanksgiving morning whitening.

  14. If it hasn’t been said, balloons will fly. They’ll stay lower and each has a law enforcement guide to keep measurements, etc.

  16. Hmm, I “may” be reading this incorrectly, but I do believe that the NAM
    is coming out very similar to the Euro and CMC.

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019112812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019112812&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019112812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    Should pass South of the Cape, perhaps over or just South of Nantucket.
    Could get very interesting.

    Wonder what the 12Z Euro will say?

    I’ll post the 0Z Euro maps in a moment.

  18. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

    I am about to turn on the Macy’s Parade. Not sure if they’re allowing the balloons given the forecast for wind.

    1. Multi model, multi run projected low track seems pretty good for wintry weather on this event.

      2 questions : how strong enough will the primary be before redevelopment to affect mid level temps
      how far inland will marginal boundary layer temps be in play?

  20. Happy Thanksgiving!

    The balloons are flying, but they’re as low as they can go. Also, apparently the Ronald McDonald balloon was damaged and taken down due to wind. So it was definitely marginal but they’ve done what they could.

  21. In the past few winters, I can’t remember too many long duration precip events.

    This next one seems to be a longer duration event, perhaps not as long as the models are showing, but longer than a 6-10 hr precip event.

  22. Last long duration winter weather event I remember was the blizzard of 2015 which I missed out on all the fun with only 7 inches of snow and all you guys in eastern Massachusetts got quite the dumping of snow from that one. The storm was part of the snow blitz that winter.

      1. Mark missed out on some snow that winter as well. I was certain that everyone in SNE received huge amounts equally. Oh well.

  23. The lows in that stretch tracked just a little too far east for me to get into the big snows during that stretch.

          1. We’re eating at Legal Sea Foods on Rt. 9 Framingham. They serve a fantastic Turkey dinner, just like at home. They do a really nice job and we have done these a few times in the past.

            Enjoy dinner and family. 🙂

  29. I am going to check on the EURO later. I will be leaving to go to my mom and stepdad’s for Thanksgiving during before the EURO starts running.

  32. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

    Euro ensembles map of probabilities for greater than 3″ of snow….

    Frank Nocera
    @Nocera5
    3h

    Overnight run of the #ECMWF ensembles continue to increase #snowfall probabilities for 3+ inches from Sun afternoon into Mon. Probs now greater than 50% from #NY state into #MA #RI #CT! Not a blockbuster snowstorm but snow covered roads will impact a very busy travel day Sun/ngt

    https://twitter.com/Nocera5/status/1200047829919637504?s=20

    That was from 0z, 12z running shortly….

  34. i have a feeling this storm will screw over parts of Northeastern mass. too much dry air maybe and the models might trend more south
    06z Euro control for example.

      1. Euro bombs thr storm into maine then.. there is another heavy snow band but it stays to the east and misses us. but oh boy if that band in the waters hit us

  35. 12z Euro is a cold and snowy run for many again, and long duration. Like the Canadian, its got a bullseye in CT. Many interior areas stay all snow. Coastal areas and eastern MA are snow to mix to rain and back to snow.

    This is the Pivotal 10:1 snow map:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112812&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Obviously this is overdone but even if you took half of these totals we are looking at a moderate to significant snowfall in many areas away from the coast.

    1. Not sure it even rains in Boston or at least at my house and IF it does, it
      would be of short duration.

      Snow map shortly

    2. Yeah I shouldn’t even say away from the coast, it’s got decent snow totals right to the coast and shoreline of CT basically everywhere except for the Cape and Islands.

    2. Those totals are equal to and in some cases higher than the 10:1 totals I posted above. I still think that snow algorithm F5 Weather uses is screwy.

        1. Well, something ain’t right because there is no way in hell I am shoveling 16″ of snow from this storm on Monday night.

          1. Are you sure?
            Wait until TK chimes in, then you will feel
            better when he tells you that you’ll only be shoveling 1-3 inches or none at all. 🙂

              1. The snow algorithm works off of
                the Euro QPF. IF the Euro qpf is whacked, then the snow totals will be whacked.

  37. This system is getting interesting and more interesting….

    Here is where TK comes in and says that all of the models are not handling the
    complex situation properly.

  39. Mark, the F5 site says 14.2 inches of snow for Coventry with .56 inch of sleet thrown in
    for good measure. Not sure if the .56 inch is included in the 14.2 or not. Not that
    it matters much. 🙂

  41. I wonder how much, if at all, the models are taking the ocean temperature off of our
    coast into account with these forecasts?

  42. I think the models are doing a couple things:

    1. Underestimating the effect of the warm ocean waters when you have a strong easterly wind component off the Atlantic with a storm tracking to the south

    2. Underestimating the up front snow that falls as Virga because the preceding airmass is very dry

    3. Euro is deepening and slowing this storm down too much/holding onto the precip way too long. I don’t see this being a 48 hour storm as modeled.

    I will say the high to the north is stronger on this run of the Euro so that bodes well for a more southerly track and colder solution.

    1. Well, I certainly wonder about that ocean. Currently 50 Degrees and running
      about 2 1/4 degrees above average. May get dicey until the winds back to more
      Northerly.

      1. I could actually see it raining at Logan while still holding
        onto to Snow at my house. I may flip to rain as well for a very short period.

    2. re; #3. they are all doing that.
      re #2. Not worried about that.

      I am worried about #1 and #4 (the storm actually tracks TOO FAR SOUTH!)

      1. The models today are all seeing a stronger high to the north so as good as that is for more snow and ice, it does introduce the more southerly track back into the equation.

        I will take the current solutions please with no more changes 🙂

        1. wouldn’t it be a hoot if the far southern track solution
          of the GFS from few days ago turns out to be correct???
          Bummer.

              1. From NWS

                I do think the ECMWF ensemble probabilities of snow
                accumulations at or over 6 inches best captures the area that has
                the potential for accumulations of snow, with rather high probs
                shown from the Hartford-Providence-Boston corridor north and west,
                with lower probs towards coastal RI into South Shore and the Cape
                and Islands.

      1. Pretty much as it is just a graze.
        BUT, it is the JMA model. NAM coming out now.
        I’ll be tied up pretty soon for the rest of the day.

  46. NAM shows 4+ inches in Boston BY 7PM Sunday. Very interesting to say the least.
    Perhaps a tad fast on the start time???

    1. NAM KEEPS IT South of Nantucket. Looks like a snow event so far.

      7+ at end of run with it still going strong

          1. He’s wrong if the low stays south and east of Nantucket. But, I think if the low traverses the Cape, for example, it will be a mixed bag with not a lot of snow at the coast (different inland).

  47. Interesting weather coming up.

    Best wishes to Nick Folk. Appendectomy is not fun. Why do we have an appendix? Biologically there must be a reason. But, I’ve never been able to find one. I study these things carefully and thoroughly. The digestive tract can do fine without an appendix.

    The Cowboys look disinterested and very, very ill-prepared in all phases of the game. That’s on the coach. He even looks lost and beaten. That’s not good. The Cowboys have more talent than most teams in the NFL. Yet, they may be 6-6 after today’s game. However much I like Garrett the person (he’s so different from most coaches; amiable, smiles a lot, actually answers questions), he’s over-matched and overwhelmed. The team needs a kick in the pants. A firing after today’s loss (should they lose) may just be what the doctor ordered. This team has too much talent to flounder.

    Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

  48. Shame on the NFL for not having rules that truly protect players. Woods (25 on the Cowboys) should have been ejected for a totally unnecessary and potentially very dangerous, egregious foul (ripping the helmet off of a player who was already down).

  49. I’m stuffed and home now.
    About to sit down and watch the 2nd 1/2 of the IRISHMAN. Netflix has
    done a great job with this one. 🙂

  50. Patiently (well NOT so patiently) waiting on the 0Z runs.
    Are we close enough for no major shifts? OR are there still some in the cards? Ah, that is the question.

  51. 0z weather models give me something to smile about after watching another horrible Cowboys loss. I got to remind myself there still in first place at 6-6. Jerry Jones should have fired Jason Garrett after the Patriots game. At that point a shake up in the locker room was needed.

    2. It has to be hard to be a fan of a talented team that’s playing so poorly. It would be one thing if there wasn’t much talent on the team. But, Dallas has a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball. For some reason they appear ill-prepared and disinterested.

  52. The TV guys were awesome tonight. They mentioned that there would be tweets by “social media” weather people that will be talking about bigger snow too far south and right to the coast because they are just reading models and not realizing that the models basically suck in this situation.

    After applying meteorology, there should be no surprises. 🙂

    Kudos to the locals. I’m glad they are addressing the issue directly, but diplomatically.

  53. Here’s a back yard photo from WH in Woburn of tonight’s celestial show in the twilight sky. Upper left is Saturn, lower middle is moon with Venus just underneath, and lower right is Jupiter.

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/78429161_10157839573077265_2691197362025529344_o.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_ohc=6JjfR5Aq9xEAQmWgq8jeueYYAtxqg0a_XCe5Ph1-vF4HDtdlwHEWVCCRg&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=16cb4d03705d769049fc608ec5f3df51&oe=5E7AACDC

    3. Thank you so much, TK!

      Excellent! Though I couldn’t see it from my vantage point (lights of the big city), I very much appreciate you sending it.

    4. What’s kinda cool is that if we were able to see (but we can’t because of distance) Pluto was just above and left of Saturn, and Neptune was a little further up and left as well, so the planetary line actually continued further – we just couldn’t see it all. 🙂

    2. I like this map but we do have to make some adjustments, and keep in mind that even if a 5+ verified it takes place over quite a long period of time. It won’t be all that cold so pavements would have trouble keeping their snow, but they would have to be treated and in some cases plowed.

      1. Plowing probably North of Boston . Looking like a salter in Boston to start than over to cold rain is that your thinking Tk , still pretty early .

  55. Good morning,
    I hope all had a wonderful Thanksgiving Day.
    I continue to monitor all of the model guidance. There “appears” to be some consensus
    developing with each successive run. Even the party-pooper GFS is upping the snow totals. Given that, there now appears to be a fairly solid signal that there will be
    a change to rain along the coast for a period of time. Right now does not appear to be a very long time, something in the order of say 2-6 hours in a long duration event.

    Depending on models, City accumulations run from 6 inches to over a foot.

    Here are some latest:

    https://imgur.com/a/lLXF0ad

      1. Well, I do try to deliver.

        I have omitted the German, French and Japanese models. We have a snow map for the German, ICON, but not the other 2.
        Also, I totally forgot the FIM 🙂

        1. The German shows a lot of rain, while the French shows all snow and a lot of it. 🙂
          FIM, like the German

  56. The strength and location of that secondary low will be key as to how much warm air invades southern New England. I am concerned that models underplay that warm ocean considering how early in the season it is but at least there appears to be at least some measurable snow for most of southern New England.

    1. Hi Arod, so nice to see you around again.
      I certainly agree with that assessment. Precip intensity will play a big role as well. If it is intense enough, assuming still cold above, it can hold back the invasion of the warmer boundary level from the ocean. Depends upon wind
      direction as well.

      I have seen early season systems like this flip back and forth here in JP, while it was all rain at the airport. So many factors in play.

      Not for nothing, but all of the models show less accumulation tucked up next
      to the coast, so the models are factoring in something, perhaps not enough, but they are factoring it in.

      1. I remember on early Dec system where my wife and I were on Newbury street and there was slush falling from the sky as the snow was so wet. 🙂

  58. Here are some of my F5 service Euro snow totals for around the area:

    Logan: 6.7
    Brookline: 8.7
    Woburn: 12.6
    Westwood: 10.5
    Hingham: 0.9
    marshfiled: 0.4
    pembroke: 1.3
    sutton: 15.1
    holden: 20.2
    coventyr,ct: 15.0
    waterbury,ct: 14.2

    sorry if I missed anyone, I used what I could remember.
    If anyone wants a Town, I’d be happy to plug it in and see what comes out.

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