Wednesday Forecast

39 Comments

9:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)
Merry Christmas and since I did not say it a few days ago when it began Happy Hanukkah to all celebrating either or both of these holidays! A quiet weather interlude has been timed very nicely for local and regional travel, and this continues today as well as tomorrow, which is one of the busiest of not the busiest travel day between Thanksgiving Weekend and New Year’s Day. We actually have a frontal boundary nearby, but there is not a lot of moisture available for it to work with for now so there will just be a varying amount of cloudiness these couple days. It is not until Friday when an impulse of low pressure passing north of the region will pull enough moisture into the area, along with milder air, for a rain shower threat. Behind that come a bubble of high pressure for a nice early winter day on Saturday. But as we approach year’s end we’ll start to see a little more activity in our weather once again. Now you’ve often heard me not to worry too much about what models have to say, detail-wise, beyond a few days out, but when making a forecast for day 5, and your two most reliable medium range models have completely different solutions as to how a storm system tracks, it gets .. interesting .. in terms of making an outlook. Now while I don’t often mention the models by name in my discussions here, preferring to save that for discussions in the comments section, I will point out that as we get to Sunday, we’ll be watching the approach of a low pressure system that I am pretty certain moves into the Great Lakes, and this is depicted by both the European (ECMWF) and US (GFS) models. It is what happens after this that is interesting, but since that is beyond day 5, this part of the discussion will be continued below, and I will move onto the 5-day forecast details here…
TODAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
December 30, unsettled weather is likely, but hmmm, what form will it take? Probably rain, yes, but will it stay rain? If the ECMWF solution is correct, the low center from the Great Lakes reforms and passes just to the south, with high pressure to the north supplying cold enough air so that ice and/or snow could become involved for at least portions of the region, while the GFS model just keeps the primary low dominant and a secondary low is a feeble attempt at best and further north, a milder solution, and nothing in the way of freezing or frozen precipitation. I am currently leaning a little closer to the GFS scenario for that, which also means a quicker exit as well and dry/chilly weather for the final day of 2019. Beyond that, I don’t trust either model much, but I am generally thinking that we see a quick-moving system deliver rain showers (storm track to north of region) later January 1 or early January 2, followed by a sharp turn to colder weather possibly accompanied by snow showers, but we’re now out to 8-10 days on this forecast so it’s obviously low confidence and probably contains more detail than it should.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)
Overall theme, cold and dry. A lot of fine-tuning to come.

39 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. 14,000,000 tons of sand from the area around Scituate widow walk and greenbush Commitee rail Area was used For fill to create Logan airport

      And I promise to stop now but found that fascinating.

  6. About 75% of January’s snow will occur between January 12 & 22, and it should be enough to end up putting the snow for the month close to normal.

      1. I really love that style. It was often heard in the house when I was a kid. 🙂 I still play it often!

        1. there was suppose to be a smiley face in the end to show my sarcasm. . idk why my emojis never show up on here its annoying!! it makes me sound more serious than i am actually when i type sometimes!

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Can’t believe I have to wait 366 days until Christmas 2020.

    I got the cold that’s going around. Last year on Christmas Eve I got pretty much the same cold (of course, it was a different virus, but it manifested itself the same). The sneezing is non-stop. It’s a histamine response for which anti-histamines do next to nothing. Oh well. There are far worse things to deal with.

    1. Ugh. I hope you feel better quickly. There are so many things going around….flu, cold virus, stomach bug (three kids in this house are just getting over).

      You were on my mind today. I know it is a difficult holiday season for you without adding illness. Scott also.

      1. Not an easy period. Lucky to have my daughter here from London. We can reminisce. I just hope she doesn’t get my cold.

        I bundled up and took a long Christmas walk in the city today with my daughter Lisa. It’s so quiet everywhere. I really love that. Thanksgiving day and Christmas are my favorite days of the year, in part because of the peaceful streets.

        1. I spoke with a couple of my Mid-Atlantic relatives today and they told me that they are getting over bad colds/flu also. I still have my cold but I’m not sneezing nearly as much as even yesterday. Hopefully a good sign. Take care Joshua!

          1. And I completely forgot that 2020 is a leap year. One more day added until Election Day in early November. I will sooo be glad when “that” is over.

            I can see why TK wants politics kept from WHW. Enough said.

            1. I was surprised when Alexa told my grandson 365 days till Christmas when he asked this afternoon

              Joshua…I’m so happy your daughter is with you. There is a wonderful peace and beauty in the city when it is quiet. I know exactly what you mean.

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