Wednesday Forecast

98 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
Happy New Year to all! It’s 2020 now and on we go with the outlook for the weather for the first several days of the second month of meteorological winter. And the pattern is an active one to start off the year as we have a fairly fast west to east flow across the USA. First, a drying westerly breeze will bring a nice beginning to the year in contrast to the messy storm that ended 2019. Other than some patchy icy areas on the ground this morning, expect good weather for your New Year’s Day walk or any other travel you need / want to do. High pressure will move across the region Thursday with another nice day, but things quickly turn after that when we have an initial low pressure area tracking northeastward from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, then redeveloping just south of New England later Saturday and passing over or just south of the region early Sunday. This will bring a stretch of unsettled weather in the form of periods of rain arriving Friday, continuing Saturday, but possibly ending as snow or snow showers Sunday as colder air arrives. It’s a little clear how this evolves 4 to 5 days out so it needs to be closely monitored, as subtle differences in timing and placement of the secondary low pressure system can mean the difference between a few snow showers and us having to reach for the shovels…
Forecast details…
TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32 evening then temperatures slowly rising. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain returning. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 45-52 morning then turning cooler. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow or snow showers north, mix to snow showers south morning. Clearing afternoon. Temperatures steady 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
A very weak disturbance may produce a brief snow flurry otherwise dry/cold January 6. Next low pressure system likely travels through Great Lakes with unsettled weather favoring mix to rain / rain showers, during the January 7-8 period before windy and colder weather arrives behind this system January 9 and cold but more tranquil weather January 10 as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
A west to east flow continues to dominate the pattern with no major storms and no major warmth or cold, but more modest temperature changes. Dry weather is most likely at the start and end of the period with unsettled weather in between.

98 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  6. Water temps of the south coast still around 48 probably should be around 43 or lower for this time of year.

    1. I recall when we spent the month of January at Humarock in 2012 that temp was 46 for the New Years plunge. Everyone thought that was high so wow.

      Thanks Robert

  8. JPD. I suspect you are aware but just in case…Netflix is removing friends. I had read early 2020 so don’t know if it has already been removed. I binge watched last night just because.

    1. I did not know that. Thank you for letting me know.
      My wife will not be pleased, that’s for sure. We’re almost done with
      season 5. I just checked. It’s GONE!)(@#*^!*(@^#&*!^@#&*^!@*&#^

      WHY would they do that? I don’t get it?

      ‘Friends’ is leaving Netflix on January 1, 2020. … Starting Wednesday, you’ll no longer be able to stream “Friends” on Netflix. The beloved ’90s comedy will be moved from the popular streaming service to a new platform called HBO Max, which will launch in May 2020.

      1. AHHHHHHHHHHHHH CRAPPPPPPP!@*#(!@&#*(!&@*(#&!*@&#()!@(#&)!(@&#)(!&@#)(&!@)(#&!)(@&#)(!&@#)(&!@)(#&)!@#)&!)(@#&)!@#&!)(@#&)(!@&#(!&@)#(@&!(

        HAPPY FREAKIN NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. We feel the same. I have the first two seasons on dvd. May get the rest before the price goes sky high.

          We are really upset.

    1. Maybe but I’ll let you know. Today is my first day of retirement and I have no idea how I feel about it. Am I incorrect that you have been retired a while?

  10. Thanks TK
    Happy New Year everyone!!! I look forward to another great year and decade talking weather and sports discussions that we have at times here.
    TK I look forward to your Weather Predictions for 2020. You did a great job with them last year.
    Here are my weather predictions for 2020. I look forward to reading all of yours and then look back on December 31st to see what we got right.
    No Blockbuster snowstorms the rest of the winter however I do see 1-2 widespread 6-12 inch snowstorms with this happening between early February and early March
    Last widespread snowfall will happen during the first two weeks of March
    Up and down temps in April
    A summer preview will happen during the middle of May and that is when I think we see the first 90 degree temps for 2020
    Summer will have average thunderstorm activity and normal tornado activity. There will be one heat wave of five days across the interior and slightly above the normal amount of 90 degree days
    Summer will last into the first few days of fall before a strong cold front delivers a round of strong to possibly severe storms and sends Summer away until 2021
    New England once again goes another year without a direct hit from a Hurricane
    Up and down temps for October
    November will not be as cold as last year and temps will average slightly above normal. It is this month I think the first flakes of the season will happen
    Middle of December will have the first widespread snowfall for SNE but unfortunately the snow will be gone and we won’t have a White Christmas

    2. Nice. Thanks Mark. Are you still in NY?

      How do you copy the url for a tweet? I couldn’t figure it out so just copy the whole thing. Thanks. And please, no hurry. Enjoy a quiet morning. Happy new year

      1. Yes Vicki we are still in NY but heading back to CT in the PM.

        As far as copying the URL for a tweet, if you go to the bottom of the tweet you will see a symbol with an up arrow which if you click on, it will give you options for sharing the tweet. Select “copy link to tweet” and it will copy the URL.

  15. Happy Retirement Vicki and Longshot
    Vicki I would be happy if one or two of my weather predictions for 2020 happen. TK will have a lot more right and I always enjoy hearing his thoughts when it comes to weather for the year.

  17. Joshua I hope you are correct. Its been now 25 years since they have won a Super Bowl.
    My sports prediction for 2020 is the Yankees are going to win the World Series.

      1. Last year I was correct when I said Tiger Woods was going to win. This year I am going to say Rory Mcllroy wins the Masters and completes the career grand slam.

  18. Happy New Year to all.

    And, thank you TK for all you do.

    Man, it feels like a nice winter’s day in … the Pacific Northwest. It’s like winter hit a wall about 10 days ago, and can’t dust itself off and throw a punch or two. Sure, we had the ice in the interior and snow in far NNE. But, overall, it’s been bordering on frost-free (even most nights) in SNE for well over a week (longer in some locales). And, looking down the road the snow and cold chances look limited.

      1. Yes, indeed. Pacific Northwest and the Netherlands share a few weather-related things in common (they’re also very different in terms of landscape). One is fog, the kind of dense fog I described yesterday. It’s the only time the Dutch weather service puts out a “code red.” Makes sense, because dense fog with almost no visibility is worse than snow, rain, and ice, for driving.

      1. I agree. Sorry missed above. I think better to just purchase dvds. Impossible to watch the show just once

  23. Jimmy – What is the current status of the Cowboys coach? Was he fired or still there?

    I’m not necessarily a Cowboys fan like you but I well remember when Tom Landry was the head coach and the team was so well respected around the league and sports in general. So well dressed on the sideline was Landry too.

  25. Philip Jason Garrett is still the coach of the Cowboys. I thought he would have been fired by now. The longer this goes on the more I think Jason Garrett is coming back. If that is the case the Cowboys are looking at another 8-8 or 9-7 record. I think Jason Garrett should have been fired after the Patriots game. He is a nice guy but a mediocre head coach and he is not a coach that is going to take a team to a championship. I can’t think of a coach in any of the four major sports that have held on to a job for ten years like he has and not make it to a conference championship.

    1. This is strange, indeed. To go 8-8 with that level of talent is really bad. And, it’s not exactly a difficult division. I’d say it’s worse than the AFC East.

      Agree with Philip, Landry was a great coach and very well-dressed. Also, I miss the days that coaches didn’t wear head sets. But, then again, I’m about as nostalgic as they come.

    1. 12z CMC is actually pretty much a miss to our south. Opposite end of the spectrum from the GFS which tracks the parent storm to our NW and has the secondary storm forming right over us. Euro splits the difference!

      1. Oops I posted against the blog without a refresh.
        I agree. Solution is somewhere between the extreme
        of GFS to the North and CMC to the South. Perhaps the Euro
        and/or ICON solution.

        Waiting on 12Z Euro. Very soon.

  28. Joshua with two teams that are really bad in the Giants and Redskins and a mediocre Eagles team no reason with the talent level the Cowboys have that they should have not won the NFC East. There were a lot of games this year they came out flat and a result lost those games. Coming out flat is all on coaching and I have seen enough of Jason Garrett where he is not the coach that will lead my team to a Super Bowl title.

  29. Dave, not sure if you saw my post from last evening regarding the sleet accumulation in Coventry from the last storm but let’s call it 0.2″ for your spreadsheet based on the observation from my friend back home. Thx!

    1. Yup. added 0.25 for you base on your post last night.
      I can edit that to 0.2 if you like.
      Same amount I put down for my location which I think is right on target. 🙂

  31. 12Z Euro coming in too Warm for Sunday. Also, hardly any qpf??? With the 500mb
    configuration, don’t understand the lack of qpf.

  33. Change to snow happens to late for anything meaningful for my area on 12z EURO. Time for that to change.

  36. What did Wunder do to its site? I’m sure I just need to adapt to the change but it is not as easy to navigate

  39. I am going to remind myself of this when I see these torch model solutions models are showing. From Eric Fisher
    The snow outlook is tricky. Milder doesn’t necessarily mean less snowy in January. We have a window next week for a couple chances…then we will see what pops down the road

  41. JPD. This is the new look. Very different from the old. I used to be able to click on the top to see nearby stations. Can’t do that any more …at least not in an way I have found yet. And the page won’t rotate. I detest that.

    https://imgur.com/a/FRtSVaw

  42. So here we are on January 1. As previously stated, Christmas doesn’t end for me until the final moments of January 6, so I’m in the midst of it still. And I still listen to the music occasional on these days between December 25 & January 6. This particular tune is a cover version of the original by Chris Rea, done by Michael Ball. It has a very happy pre-Christmas feel to it, but since I did not post it before Christmas, here it is. Vicki I have a feeling this would probably be one you’d like. It’s about somebody returning home for the holiday after a long time away, but it’s got a nice upbeat feel to it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL4eTa6ZRi0

  43. Well since I posted one M.B. song, I may as well post his cover of ABBA’s “Happy New Year”. The original ABBA song came out in 1980 and references the wonder of what will be find at the end of ’89. Michael Ball’s version, which came out in the early 1990s, changes that to “the end of ’99”. Now I have changed my interpretation of “the end of 2-0-1-9” to “the end of 20-29” … Time marches on…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ROysmPES18

    1. I will definitely listen after love actually. For some reason my amazon prime has a nasty time letting me pause. I’m really looking forward to hearing both

      As you know, we also go right through little Christmas. Our wise men are a bit closer to the manger every day.

  44. TK’s only partially and mostly not scientific predictions for the weather in 2020…

    * January 2020 will end up near normal for snowfall due to 2 or 3 events that don’t look like locks, but overall the month will not be overly harsh as far as winter weather goes.

    * February 2020 will be the coldest and driest winter month since December 1989.

    * The cold of February will linger for the first 2 weeks of March followed by a nice reversal to above normal temperatures, putting the month close to normal in temperatures when it’s over.

    * Spring and Summer 2020 will be about as “normal” as we can possibly have due to predominant zonal flow and the lack of amplified flow along the meridians. Yes there will be variability, because that’s normal, and we will have our storm events, because that’s normal. But what we won’t see are long lasting extremes of notable anomalies of temperature, nor will we see a giant departure from normal in precipitation, although the overall leaning will be for drier than average, enough that the region may flirt with drought a few times.
    April & May will feature regular rainfall in terms of frequency of events, but they will be lighter than average overall, so that the 2 month period ends a little drier and warmer than normal. There will be no 80 degree days in April and no 90 degree days in May but there will be plenty of days of 70+ in April and a few days of 80+ in May. June through August will have their hot days, but humidity will be lacking due to a lot of west and northwest flow and not too many Bermuda High set-ups. We will get occasional highs offshore with return flow of some heat and humidity, but it will be fleeting and not persistent. So summertime temps probably average close to normal overall due to the brief heat and more frequent Canadian intrusions. However northwest flow can often bring fast-moving severe threats, so we’ll have to watch for those.

    * Tropics will be quieter than average and there will be no land-falling tropical storm or hurricane in New England.

    * The first half of September will see the most persistent warmth, relative to normal, that we see all of the summertime. The second half of September will feature a series of sharp cool shots. The beginning of autumn will feel like…..autumn. 🙂

    * October will be “perfect” for classic New England autumn activities, late apple and pumpkin picking, cider donuts, foliage which will have a brilliant and early start due to mild days and cold nights. There will be a couple notable rainy stretches that will leave weekends alone for the most part.

    * November: Cold & dry, several episodes of snowflakes but no early big snow events.

    * December: “Currier & Ives” will be the best description I can come up with, and this will portend the winter of 2020-2021 very nicely. Ask Santa for a new shovel or snow blower, and write your letter early. 😉

      1. I can put a copy there if you would like. It’s easy to find anyway on the first blog of the year. 🙂

  45. Tk. Love love the songs. He has a wonderful voice. They brought both smiles as a few tears. Thank you. Sitting on deck listening using air drop

  48. So this his hopefully one of the last times I comment on this because it’s like beating a dead horse, but I saw some numbers today that are the loudest statement yet about how bad Boston’s thermometer is. From all my experience, including the knowledge gained by working alongside the Massachusetts State Climatologist for nearly 2 decades, I can assure you that Boston’s thermometer is so badly misrepresenting the actual temperatures there that it’s beyond a joke…

    For 2019, Portland Maine and Burlington Vermont had their 31st warmest year on record. Providence Rhode Island ranked at 26th warmest, while Hartford Connecticut (a location we know had a bad thermometer for part of the year) ranked in at 20th warmest. Little old Logan Airport in Boston? The data says it was 7th warmest on record. If you put a 1 in front of that 7, maybe you could start to convince me it was legit. But as stated above, with all my experience in how this region varies in its spread, there is absolutely ZERO chance that is even close to correct. I really hope it is fixed soon, because it’s literally destroying Boston’s climate records. End of story.

    1. An excerpt from my winter forecast issued in November, which remains unchanged at this time…

      FEBRUARY
      This is the month that I think things can come together for the greatest chance of blocking, because I feel that when all is said and done our SST event will be delayed and locations of warm waters in the Pacific and Atlantic will combine to produce our coldest weather, relative to normal. I’m also still relying on a quiet southern jet stream and dominant polar jet stream, which itself may end up suppressed to the south due to stronger blocking. This would end up a colder, drier pattern if it came together that way. Very minor wildcard is that we have seen some climate model indications that our ENSO neutral conditions may actually dip into weak La Nina territory by late winter.
      Temperature: Below normal.
      Precipitation: Below normal.
      Snow: Slightly below normal.

      MARCH
      Plenty of lingering snow across Canada and the possible emergence of weak La Nina, and some persistence of the late winter pattern would lead me to think the March pattern would be chilly but on the drier side of normal, at least to start out. But this part of the forecast is worth very little more than just tossing darts and is really just a stretch / educated guess.
      Temperature: Below normal early month, near normal later month.
      Precipitation: Below normal.
      Snow: Below normal.

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