Sunday Forecast

129 Comments

4:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
Quick update this morning as I’m making no changes to yesterday’s discussion. Our brief shot of anomalous warmth is about to end, but the overall mild pattern still hangs on for a while, although you will feel some January chill again before the conclusion of this 5-day period. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will traverse the region early this morning before exiting west to east by later morning. This will be replaced with drier but windy weather for the balance of the day, but since the temperatures hung in the 60s overnight, we’ll still have that warmth around this morning before we slide back to the 50s this afternoon. High pressure to the north of New England will help cooler air filter into the region tonight and Monday, and its position will allow winds to come around to east and perhaps create a few rain/snow showers favoring Cape Ann and Cape Cod by later Monday The active pattern continues as then we will be impacted by 2 low pressure systems before this 5-day period is over, the first being a disjointed system with energy passing by both to the north and to the south of southeastern New England, setting up a risk of rain showers late-day and evening on Tuesday. The second system looks slightly more potent and should have a stronger low pressure area heading from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes toward northern New England by Wednesday night and Thursday with an episode of rain. Depending on timing of end of precipitation and arrival of cold air during Thursday, we may have to watch for a flip to snow showers before that system departs. Being several days away it’s too soon to know for sure how that will play out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers and possibly a thunderstorm, some which may have powerful wind gusts. Clearing midday and afternoon. Highs 60-67 morning, cooling to 50s afternoon. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/snow showers possible Cape Cod & Cape Ann. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 44-51. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 37-44. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy morning with rain, possibly ending as snow showers. Clouds/sun afternoon. Temperatures 37-44 early then slowly falling. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
Fair, chilly January 17. Storm system likely impacts the region January 18-19 with rain/mix/snow, details to be worked out. Fair, seasonably cold weather returns January 20-21 behind that storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
The active weather pattern will continue with one or two precipitation threats and colder air around, so additional snow/mix will likely be involved with these threats.

129 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK! And thank you for the special statement from the previous blog. News outlets don’t help matters and tv mets don’t really have time on air to explain such things as weather vs. climate as you did. Reminds me of a couple of earth science related courses from my college days.

    1. I had no idea though that there are actually flowers that normally come out during the winter months around here. I would be curious as to what they are and what they look like.

  5. In Fort Myers. Weds-Fri: Dream weather with temps in low 70’s, clear skies and breezy.
    Sat: HH and breezy with record setting temp, 87. Sun: Clear sky and temp will reach 84, humid and no wind whatsoever.

    Back to Boston on Tuesday night.

      1. Yuuuck! Kind of humid here as well. Logan DP is 58.

        No thanks! I prefer winter’s chill, within reason. 🙂

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I see that TK addressed this yesterday, but I nearly fell out of my chair when Mike Wankum said that Logon hit 70 yesterday!! What a preposterous JOKE!!!

    We topped out at 67 here in JP. NO way Logan was 70. NO freaking way!!!

    We bottomed out at 62 at 5:50 AM. Currently 64.

    Any way we can get a total snow storm out of the 1/18-1/19 upcoming event or so it looks like an event and all signs point to a front end thump of snow before going over
    to rain.

    Euro has about 4 inches or so, while the GFS has up to 8. Waiting on 12Z runs
    to see how it has changed, if it does.

    1. As I mentioned yesterday, my fear is a flash freeze following the kitchen sink slop. I bet that is the more likely scenario. Maybe the next event after that will be all/mostly snow.

  7. There was an impressive looking line, but now it appears to be disjointed and rather falling apart. Figures. I wanted a thunderstorm. Oh well.

  8. Good Sunday morning and thank you TK!
    That line came through here without much fanfare, a little rain and the wind gusts were about the same as they were all night, actually the winds have decreased some post fropa.

  10. TK has an explanation been given on why they don’t replace the faulty sensor, is it a budget issue or do they feel it’s just not that far off to bother with?

      1. I believe it was explained by another that some things have to wait due to nws cuts. I don’t believe the NWS or its employees are indifferent. I do believe it is under increased pressure in our current atmosphere.

  11. NOT impressed with that frontal passage as it really WIMPED out!
    It did, however, drop my temperature from 64 to 63. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. JpDave maybe Mother Nature is waiting to give you that lightning show with some frozen precip in the near future?

  14. I had lightning and thunder with sleet back on the 30th of December and that was cool. Now I am still waiting to experience thundersnow for the first time in my life.

    1. You must have experienced thundersnow by now Jimmy. I can recall it in my teens though I had no understanding like I do now as an adult and by being here on this blog.

  15. I believe I heard Barry say that it was 67 at Logan earlier this morning so if there is no more spike up in temperature, then 67F “should” be the official high for the day, such as it is, faulty sensor and all.

    Current temp: 65

    1. Because they just take the official temp. Yes they broke the record. That was 62. The high temp was not 70. That’s an error with the temperature sensor.

      All the TV people are going to say whatever the recorded temperature is by NWS, because they essentially have to.

  17. TK, first, thank you, for your forecasts and excellent explanations.

    Second, I agree with you on weather versus climate. Both sides of the climate change debate use weather events erroneously to bolster their arguments. And, both sides are wrong. I recall Sean Hannity in 2010 after a blizzard in DC declaring that “there is no climate change.” His reasoning was as faulty as those yesterday declaring that a 68F day in January proves climate change.

    All this said, there are alarming changes worldwide that indicate significant climate change. Please note, I’m unsure how much man’s impact is on this. But, it’s plausible that man’s impact is significant, especially in light of the massive (completely unprecedented, by a wide margin) and rapid industrialization in China and India that correlates well with global warming. By the way, that industrialization is fueled by an insatiable appetite for cheap goods by us, by Europeans, and by a growing number of people in middle income countries.

    Birds are changing their migration patterns in response to the warming trend, as have insects. Ocean water levels have risen, ice sheets have been melting at a faster rate, and globally the temperature is increasing. I say this NOT in response to this weekend’s balmy temperatures. I say this as someone who reads about long-term trends. I am not a scientist (well, a social scientist, but that’s different). But, I do understand scientific numbers, reasoning, and models. Virtually all climate models (and scientists) point to warming. Has this happened before? Yes. You’re right to point this out. But, there is reason to be concerned about the current trend, as it has a potentially devastating impact on coastlines (especially in Europe), crops, flora and fauna, etc …

    1. Climate and weather go hand in hand. Bird Migration and climate planting zones are changing. Seasons are shifting. As the climate changes, the weather patterns and events in that climate area will and are changing. How much man has impacted this, we don’t know. We do, however, know man has had a significant impact. The current reversal of environmental protection regulations is and will set us back far enough that we may not recover. Is that political? No, it’s fact.

      1. Head Scratcher……

        “How much man has impacted this, we don’t know. We do, however, know man has had a significant impact.”

  18. This day in weather history back in 2011 Bradley International Airport received its biggest snowstorm on record with 24.0 inches. This came during this six week snow blitz stretch where a record 54.3 inches of snow fell that January.

  19. I’ve experienced thunder snow on a handful of occasions, and is one of my favorite weather events. The flashes of lightning reflecting off the heavily falling snow is neat, and also the thunder seems to be deeper but also muffled, very odd to experience. I truly hope that you get to experience it very soon. Just look at how it makes a seasoned meteorologist like Jim Cantore react.

    1. I can’t count the number of times I have experienced it, but
      I think thunder sleet tops it and I have only experienced thunder sleet
      twice in my lifetime and one of those was this Winter. 🙂

  20. To me, the balmy weekend is less surprising than the meek and feeble cooler air that will drive out the warmth. Judging on my observations from years past, I most definitely recall balmy days in January. But, almost invariably, following a balmy day or two a biting cold front would pull through. Not this time, and it’s not even close to cold (what’s coming this week). I believe when all is said and done January 2012 will have been colder than this January. Boston got to 9F in January 2012, and we had 2 minor, but accumulating snow events. I’m really unsure we’ll see anything close to single digits this month (which actually is unusual; in my lifetime I can’t recall a January that didn’t have a single night get to single digits), and I’m very skeptical about snow this month.

  21. So about that string of middle 40s for days after this weekend on alot of forecasts? I didn’t agree with it then and I don’t now. When outlets are forced to make 7-day and 10-day forecasts while updating multiple social media sites, answering phone calls and emails, preparing multiple TV spots and teasers, their forecasters will often have to cut corners, and sometimes the extended forecast is the first victim. It’s easy to just glance at model numbers and kind of “go with them”. If you don’t have that kind of pressure you can spend more time in preparing your forecast, for what it’s worth, for more than a few days out.

    Boston’s high temp that I expect the next 5 days (after today)…
    Monday: 38
    Tuesday: 41
    Wednesday: 51
    Thursday: 39
    Friday: 29

    Now we know that the recorded highs will be off by 1 or 2 degrees, so we must take that into account when verifying these next weekend.

  22. Love the front end thump totals on the 12z GFS

    Certainly, I can see some front end snow as a possibility, but this much ….. lol !!

      1. If the track is as shown, yes, both because of eventual mild air at the surface near the immediate coast and also, to a degree for inland southern New England, a change to sleet and or frz rain, due to warm air aloft.

        Of course, track settles a bit further south, the outcome would be colder, a bit further west and north, a warmer outcome.

      2. But, the trend does seem to be towards a stronger high to our north and northeast with a colder airmass in place for the storm’s first part. Looks like a colder scenario to me, at the start, than it did 24 to 48 hrs ago. Will be interesting to see if that trend holds.

    1. It spiked! The highest was 67 up until now. I guess 70+ is pretty much a sure bet. Yesterday Waunkum had 72 for today.

  24. Julian Edelman arrested in Beverly Hills last night jumping on hood of car & vandalizing it & he was nice & drunk .

  26. The GFS was mentioned. Today’s 12Z run is almost all snow in Boston, just rain at the end as low passes nearby.

    Here is the Kuchera snow, representing a 3 run trend of colder and more snow with
    each run.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020011212/174/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    surface maps

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020011212/150/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020011212/156/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    those pinks on the map is NOT sleet, but rather very HEAVY snow!!!

  27. TK – Can you list those winter flowers you mentioned from your previous blog? Flowers blooming in winter is a new one on me I have to admit.

    1. Winter jasmine, winter honeysuckle, certain pansies, crocus, winterberry, etc. There are quite a few actually, and some of them are found right here in New England.

  28. Logan reached 72, which is a crying shame because that will tie the all time
    January High temperature, when it really did not. Hope Logan doesn’t touch 73.

    1. This would be the time for someone to step up and say something there, but they’ve very likely been told not to say a word. I hate to assume that’s the case, but it very much probably is the case. 🙁

      2. dropped back to 70. Let’s hope that was a meoWest round error and the “official” high will only be 71. We shall see.

  29. I found this in yesterday’s Boston Herald:

    Julian Edelman was just named the Patriots 2019 Ed Block Courage Award winner for exemplifying the principals of “courage and sportsmanship” while also serving as a “source of inspiration”.

    It would appear that Edelman had a bit too much “liquid” courage last night. 😉

    Even sadder now. Hardly an “inspiration” imo. 🙁

      2. It still hasn’t. Let’s be real about that and stop taking the erroneous numbers as if they are correct.

          1. Nothing. One of my colleagues talked to them directly while visiting the office. They know all about it. But they are powerless to do anything about it. It’s all coming from “higher up”, and a lot of it has to do with $. So, climate records get distorted in the name of $. That is a small problem compared to some things that get ruined because of $, so I supposed that puts it somewhat in perspective. But from the point of view of statistical accuracy, this is very sad indeed.

    1. Do you want to know why we’re going to get substantial snow starting on January 18? This is why: I planned a gathering for a page I admin on that is taking place at a restaurant late in the day. That is why. 😛

      2. “…we’re going to get substantial snow starting on January 18”—taken out of context perhaps, but sounds like a forecast to me!

      3. Well, My wife and I have anniversary dinner reservations for
        Saturday evening, so yup it WILL snow. 🙂

  33. I just realized something. If KC and Green Bay win their respective conferences next weekend then SB LIV on February 2 would be a rematch of the very first SB between the two. This would be perfect regarding the 100th NFL anniversary et all!

    SB I – Green Bay Packers 35, Kansas City Chiefs 10

    1. I hope KC destroys Houston today. Why? Purely personal. Someone told me I was “delusional” for even suggesting that KC had the chance to win that game.

  34. I forgot to add Bedford to the list of “too warm” temps. My brother was the first to point it out to me as I hadn’t been paying attention, then I had it confirmed by 2 fellow mets. So basically if you look at the 1PM obs, Boston, Norwood, Lawrence, Beverly, and Bedford all stand out as locations with bad thermometers at this point in time.

    1. AGREE.

      btw, My high temperature here in JP was/is 70 so far today.
      So Logan is at least 1 degree off and probably 2.

  36. Well Logan went ahead and did it! 73 degrees, a BOGUS all time record January temperature!!!! )(@!#*(&!@*()&#)(&*!@)(#&)!(@&#)(!&@#*(&!*#&)(

  39. This weather is gorgeous and I don’t want it to ever stop. I’ve been getting so much done this weekend lol

  43. This weather is confusing the insects, I’m sitting out on my screened in porch and I looked over and there is a brown wasp crawling on the screen, I can’t believe it.

    1. They just react to conditions. Like the Woolly Worm. They’ll go dormant again when we chill off tonight.

  44. Putting last of the Xmas decorations away in t-shirt & shorts . I hate winter I’m glad it’s moving right along

      1. It’s fine I’ll welcome it especially if it happens on a Saturday let the meter begin lol .

  45. I know I’m confused, and I’m not even a woolly worm or brown wasp. But, I do feel like going dormant for a bit. Boy, am I tired. Probably aftermath of flu/bronchitis. My doctor said it can take a couple of weeks to truly feel normal again. My 3 mile outdoor run today was absolutely brutal. The relatively high humidity was bad enough. Couple that with feeling like I was running with a refrigerator on my back and you’ve got a totally exhausted Joshua.

  46. I stayed up late last night and was up early today, so In addition to it being warm and humid in the house, I am dragging my us due to tiredness.

  47. I’ve enjoyed a fair amount of outdoor time this weekend. All the Christmas stuff got put away yesterday. I made that trip I mentioned over to Nahant Beach and a walk ’round a local pond today. Been in and out of the house this afternoon. Now the cool air is coming in. The party is ending. I am about to shift gears and start un-decorating the inside. The entire project should be finished in about just under 1 week, maybe Friday.

    Nate and I are doing a very complete inventory of not only the extensive Christmas stuff that is in mom’s part of the house, outside, my part of the house, etc, but we are also logging all of her decorations throughout the year. My son wants to continue doing everything she did when she’s no longer able to do so.

        1. Hi Vicki 🙂
          I wonder if Bill wants Tom. I have no idea. My guess is no. That he wants to turn the page, or he’d take Tom for a year at a discounted price. I would guess he’d like to keep Josh. I do not presume to know

  49. Well, the first snowfall #’s have been mentioned on the air for the January 18-19 threat. Hey, forecasting snow amounts at day 6 & 7. Piece of cake. 😉

  50. And a second source was pretty much detailing a rain/snow line for the storm threat next weekend. Far, far too early to do these things. I wish I was that good…

      1. Me neither. I’d hate it. I know that Harvey (and a few others) have said at conferences that the pressure is insane and they are basically expected to say things they wouldn’t really want to say. Once upon a time I dreamed of being a TV forecaster. I think at this point I’m glad I never went after it…………..

        1. Pete as you know told me the same back when he was with 7. It’s why I react so strongly when anyone criticizes a met or NWS or repeats only part of the comment. Also a post on here last September had a significant And lasting impact on me. I wish it had on others. Maybe some it did. I sure hope so

  51. TK, we had a great time at Weatherfest in Boston today that I mentioned to you a couple months ago. It was part of the AMS conference in Boston. There was close to 200 scouts from all over New England there. Everyone seemed to have a great time and lots of learning was had by all. My son wants to go next year again!

      1. I will let you know when I see it scheduled for next year. It was refreshing to see the scouts so involved. Lots of future professionals! I must comment also about teachers from the other day. I have tremendous respect for all the educators out there. There were several outstanding volunteers at Weatherfest that touched many minds. My mother is a retired 34 year science teacher and mother in law a retired teacher/ principal.

  52. 74 at Logan today. Oh well. What’s a degree or two in the long run I suppose?

    TK – What about thermometers for Lowell, Fitchburg, Orange, Worcester and Springfield?…high? or just right? I feel like Goldilocks. 🙂

    And what about Providence?

    1. Providence looks ok. I can buy the 70 there today. The others, as far as I can tell, are generally OK, but Lowell is not an airport station, so its an outsider. Lawrence has been a problem – often too warm.

        1. I haven’t seen any evidence recently that Providence is off. It being lower than your temp would make sense as they had a little more influence from a wind with a component off the waters of Long Island Sound.

  53. Mike Waunkum estimates a general 3-6” for next weekend. Thereafter just dry and very cold according to his 5 + 5-day forecast. He also mentioned on air that he will be on vacation the following week. No specific snowfall map at this time.

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