Tuesday Forecast

91 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A cold front drops north to south through the region today as a pool of chilly air continues to move through aloft, causing lots of clouds. A few flurries may occur mainly this morning. A band of snow showers may impact the southern portion of the South Shore (south of Plymouth MA) across Cape Cod with a minor accumulation of snow this evening and tonight as colder air blows over relatively warmer water. High pressure north of the region will create a chilly northerly air flow for midweek but with dry weather, but as the high slips to the southeast it will moderate a little with continued dry weather on Friday, to end January. As February arrives Saturday we’ll be watching for the arrival of a possible storm system that brings the chance of rain and/or snow. At this point it remains uncertain as to the magnitude of impact from this potential system. Will fine-tune this in the next few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief passing light snow showers possible through midday. Highs 37-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers with minor accumulation possible south of Plymouth MA through Cape Cod. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Surface low pressure that may impact the region the day before should be departing but upper level low pressure crossing New England may cause snow showers February 2. After a break February 3, another weather system brings the risk of precipitation February 4 followed by another at the end of the period. Temperatures will run above seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Potentially 2 more low pressure systems around February 8 and February 10-11. Temperatures should be trending colder at this time.

91 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. first!
    Thanks tk
    anyone saw the 6z gfs blizzard on Nemo’s anniversity. Yea i am not fooling for that one.
    fool me once shame on you. fool me twice shame on me. fool a hundred times you’re the gfs model!

    1. Ironically the GFS has been the better of the medium range models of late, but that doesn’t mean those details are correct.

      1. well let’s hope miraculously that this will verify. ( wishful thinking). but yes it does like the gfs is doing better than the EURO this winter so far.

    2. Ah hah. Earlier this morning, I only looked at this weekend.
      I am sure loving that GFS which shows about 2 feet of snow for Boston
      on 2/9. Yeah sure, and I’m Santa Claus. Would be nice though. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK !

    Through the 27th of January …… Worcester, Hartford and Providence have temp anomalies of +7.1F to 7.4F. very, very consistent with each other.

    Logan is at +9.4F for about a 2F difference. hmmmmm ………

    1. Funny how that happens. 😉

      If the thermometer was right this would probably be outside the top 10 mildest. I’d have to research it to be sure but definitely not as high up on the list as it is appearing. It certainly doesn’t challenge the top four from 1913 1932 1933 and 1937. Those were warm Januarys.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I read you late night post and it brought back some memories.

    Don Kent used to drill the point home about the temperature and snow, particularly
    in the Spring. He would always say that it was the temperature above that was critical.
    He would always say that it could be 50 during the day and still snow at night.

    Since I have been around a while, I have seen many instances of just this and one in particular stands out. It was sometime during the 60s in April. The high temperature
    was 64 and by 10PM it was SNOWING quite heavily. Of course it started as rain
    and as the column cooled (Dynamic cooling), it flipped over to snow.

    For those interested in reading about Dynamic Cooling, here is a link:

    https://forecasterjack.com/glossary/glossary-of-cold-season-terms/dynamic-cooling/

    1. Don knew weather, and he knew it as well as he did partially because he didn’t have so much technology fogging his visibility.

      Pardon the pun. 🙂

      1. I loved watching him. I have said this before, but I met him long ago and had a nice long chat with him. Very likable man
        who was most knowledgeable.

        I remember a few tidbits from him:

        There once was a storm brewing in Texas and he said that
        there was not enough cyclonic curvature to bring the storm up here. Hmm, wonder what he meant????? Well I know now.

        Another time, in the early 60s I believe, he was on air talking about the next snow/rain chance as he talked about a system
        dropping down from the plains and picking up moisture
        from the gulf and then heading up the coast. Yup, he guessed it.
        It delivered a blizzard!

        And my most fond memory was Valentine’s Day 1964? 1965?
        Not exactly sure, but on the 6:45AM broadcast that I would always watch before school, he talked about a potent
        “Walking Willie” dropping down from Great Lakes Canada
        that would drop a quick 3 inches or so. Well, he didn’t quite
        get that one correct as a secondary storm developed
        on the warm from just South of Long Island and dropped
        14 inches on Boston with 55 mph wind gusts at Logan.

        Sorry couldn’t find a link, BUT it happened, I assure you.
        I didn’t wear my boots to school and went over a friend’s house
        after school trudging through the snow in my shoes. I also had
        t0 walk a mile and a half home at night through the snow, which I loved so it didn’t matter to me. 🙂 🙂

        1. He was also wrong (with pretty much everyone) about bookend storm number 1, December 5-6 1981.

          “We thawt the air was too cold and too dry with a nawthwest wind to make a stawm come up….” Still smiling as he admitted the forecasting fail. 🙂

          1. Oh for sure, but guess who got it correct?

            Bob Copeland!!!

            We were out to dinner that night and I was not driving as a friend was driving and on the way home going up a hill, he lost control and we
            did a complete 360! That was pretty scary, but when it came around he just kept on driving
            like nothing had happened. 🙂

            1. Copeland was one of the best. I finally had the pleasure of meeting him a couple years ago.

              1. I missed a chance to meet him once
                during the 60s when I worked for
                Air Force Cambridge Research Labs. I was doing grunt work with a calculator in the back room and no one let me know that Bob Copeland was there! Damn, would have loved to meet him. I did, however, work along side of Roland Boucher. I even went skiing with him at Killington one day. 🙂

  8. JPD: Thanks for the stories above. Most entertaining. 🙂

    Were you able to get a snow day from that Valentines storm or was it on a weekend?

    I met Bruce Schwoegler at a lecture he was giving at the Old South Meeting House back in the 1990’s (1994?). After the lecture as he was on his way out, I stopped him and asked for his autograph. He did better than that. He opened up his briefcase and pulled out a pre-autographed photo of himself which I still post in my bedroom today. 🙂

    1. Awesome! I never met Bruce. Happy that you did.

      And to answer your question, Yes we had the next off from school.

  10. Bruce and I were at NWH the same time for a CT years ago. He was very nice. As you know I worked closely with Todd and his weather watchers and planning the get together he hosted for all of us in Natick as well as hosting and designing the WW website.

    Pete is the cat’s meow. Just as down to earth and friendly as he appears. I never met JR but when I called WHDH to give a watcher report, he would chat for so long you’d think you were his long lost friend. He is equally nice. Eric has an edge where he doesn’t hesitate to speak out to defend a stance/view/forecast. We have chatted on various social media platforms. I’m chuckling because I can’t imagine anyone on here would doubt I admire that.

  13. After a solid shift NW with the 18z runs last night, not good trends this morning at all if you want snow.

    6z GFS ensemble mean was way southeast and hearing 12z is similar….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2020012806&fh=114

    0z and 6z Euro ensemble mean has made a decided shift SE as well after 18z yesterday which was basically a benchmark track.

    I would expect the 12z Euro to be a swing and a miss as well. The last two runs have been a disjointed mess with all the pieces of energy spaced out and none of them joining up.

    Models must be seeing something this AM with some of these pieces of energy now coming on shore from the Pacific. Not encouraging.

  14. 12Z UKMET

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020012812/102/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020012812/108/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

    10:1 snow

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020012812/114/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    This run has a fairly warm solution as 850 mb temps are crappy for a time, even with this more off shore passage.

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020012812/108/850th.us_ne.png

    1. That’s a nice run but a pretty huge shift SE from its amped coastal hugger from last night. It is clearly adjusting as well….

  18. It’s an ICON/UKMET blend or bust at this point. Not liking our odds but still a ways to go with this one. IF GFS/Euro/CMC don’t come around by tomorrow PM though, I think we can kiss this one goodbye.

      1. Too progressive a pattern perhaps? I didn’t see a single forecast this morning showing any lingering precip into any real portion of Sunday morning.

    1. That said, it is NW of the last run and scrapes the Cape with some light precip. Definitely still within the range of interest.

      I’ll be interested to see the EPS. Perhaps will be a few more hits near/inside the benchmark than the last couple runs.

      Trying to conjure up one stinkin’ snowstorm in this crappy season is proving to be a difficult feat 🙂

  24. From NWS

    Short wave energy that will initiate cyclogenesis/storm
    development is currently over the northern Pacific with jet
    energy emerging from a complex 3 separate closed low
    configuration from the Gulf of AK to the Aleutians. How this
    energy ejects out of this complex configuration and then tracks
    across the CONUS screams high uncertainty. Thus, will just have
    to see how trends evolve over the next few days.

  25. Let’s remember it’s Tuesday, one of the major models is going to show a rain scenario on of these runs too….

  26. 12z EPS shifted back NW again….not surprising after seeing the operational tick NW as well. Let’s keep ticking….

  27. Trend is your friend, well, if you’re a snow lover and live in the Maritimes. This year’s already produced bonanza, record-breaking snows in parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. That pattern looks like it’ll continue. What’s interesting about this is that isn’t a Greenlandic block (am I missing that? – I don’t see one), yet the lows are tracking favorably for snow (for most) almost every time just south and just southeast of the Maritimes.

  28. Tk can correct me if I am incorrect, but I believe I have identified the piece
    of energy that will be responsible, at least in part, for the potential system this weekend.
    You will note that it was not quite on shore as of 12Z this morning. It may be by the 18Z runs and certainly by the 0Z runs tonight.

    https://imgur.com/a/VNwgQfT

  29. 18Z NAM at 84 hours or 6Z on Saturday AM.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2020012818&fh=84

    500mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2020012818&fh=84

    This smells like an OTS job to me. I can smell it from here.

    I love it the NAM is getting into the picture to provide us with a little more information.

    Just NOT looking good. Perhaps yet another opportunity down the crapper.

    1. FWIW, that piece of energy I highlighted above, is on shore with the NAM
      18Z depiction. Thus, the models should get better sampling and perhaps
      figure out what the bleep will happen.

        1. I feel like I say this every year somewhere, but the halfway point of winter is February 2. 🙂

    1. First 5 to 7 days will average above normal.

      Logan’s actual January departure is more like +7.5

  35. Boston’s Least Snowiest:

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 10.3” = 1972-73
    3. 12.7” = 1979-80
    4. 14.6” = 2019-20*
    5. 14.9” = 1994-95

    * Seasonal to date

      1. That is correct, I forgot. Thanks

        1. 9.0” = 1936-37
        2. 9.3” = 2011-12
        3. 10.3 = 1972-73
        4. 12.7” = 1979-80
        5. 14.6” = 2019-20*

  37. Wow, just looked at the 18z Euro EPS. EPS mean has shifted WAY NW again! This would be warning level criteria snow for much of SNE. Very curious to see the 00z Euro now.

    00z GFS came NW as well. Still a grazer but gets the precip field up to about the Pike.

    The pieces of energy are coming on shore now. Models seems to be picking up on stronger northern stream energy. Let’s see if this trend continues….

  38. Chilly and wintery look on the 00z GFS after middle of next week with several snow chances. Even the cutter next week has shifted SE and the warmup looks brief at best.

  39. It’s going to snow Presidents’ Day weekend because I’m heading to the cape for a few days, watch it unfold that way lol .

        1. Take it with a grain of salt for a 384 hour forecast but looks like an active stretch through mid February. I count 6 storm threats on that run, 5 of which would have snow/mix involved.

  40. Unfortunately my wife & I will not be heading to St Lucia in April . Right now just focusing on our sons trip to Italy . I will take some time & we will do things locally we just have way to much going on .

  41. Harvey thinking far south & east of us . Still possible we will get fringe effects of wet snow or rain , especially SE mass & cape cod . But ,it still needs to be watched . Posted 15 minutes ago .

  43. 00z Euro is back SE again. Grazes the Cape with some precip. Perhaps the shift on 18z was just a blip.

    00z UKMET with another shift SE as well. Still delivers a swath of 1-3″ of snow Hartford to Worcester to Boston

  44. Gray, ME

    **Low confidence potential coastal system late this weekend**

    Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
    development of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday
    tracking northeastward towards Nova Scotia Sunday. Recent runs
    of deterministic guidance suggest that the track of this system
    will be slightly too far to our east to bring significant
    impacts. Model ensembles, especially the ECMWF, do show enough
    members tracking close enough to our area to warrant careful
    consideration of this system.

    As mentioned in previous discussions there remains uncertainty
    in the evolution and track of this system due to multiple
    pieces of energy moving through the East Coast trough Saturday.
    The question is whether these pieces of energy can phase at the
    right time to form a stronger system closer to our area. Another
    factor to consider is upstream blocking as the upper level
    pattern remains fairly progressive with the trough quickly
    moving offshore with heights building over the East Coast
    starting Monday. Model ensembles show a neutral NAO trending to
    a slightly -NAO over the next few days with a stronger -NAO
    leading to more blocking and possibly a closer storm track.
    Models also show an upper low near Newfoundland Saturday
    morning. If this upper low can linger into Sunday providing an
    area of confluence, a more westward storm track is also
    possible. Overall there a lot of moving parts to this system
    with current trends favoring a near miss. Will continue to
    monitor as this system has been visible for several days now and
    it is still several days from when we could see impacts from
    this system.

    Early next week heights build over the East Coast for warmer
    than normal conditions. An open wave will move from the central
    Plains towards New England the middle of next week with trends
    favoring wintry precipitation in the mountains and rain across
    southern areas.

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