Tuesday Forecast

85 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Making a few adjustments. I like faster timing of features during this 5-day period. A weak wave of low pressure may bring a little light rain to areas mainly south of I-90 today to early Wednesday, with mild air today giving way to a more seasonably chilly day Wednesday. And then we have a 1-2 punch of low pressure areas Thursday and Friday. Enough cold air will be around for the first one to start as snow Thursday morning, probably pre-dawn, in most of the region except the South Coast which probably starts as rain. Generally minor accumulation is expected from this before enough warm air takes over to change it to rain, followed by a lull, then another slug of rain for early Friday with a second low center moving up over New England. But this system will be hauling and will already be on its way out Friday afternoon. It currently appears that the end of the moisture will beat the arrival of colder air, so I’m not expecting anything more than a passing snow shower as colder air returns, setting up a fair and seasonably chilly day for Saturday, or a nice start to a mid winter weekend. Will that last? See the DAYS 6-10 section after you check out the detailed forecast for the next 5 days…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible south of I-90. Highs 40-47. Wind
Partly sunny early morning. Cloudy thereafter. Light rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible, may end of snow showers, favoring areas south of I-90. Clearing afternoon. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arriving around dawn quickly changing to rain South Coast more slowly changing to sleet than rain further north. General accumulation of a coating to 2 inches, least near the South Coast and most near the New Hampshire Massachusetts border. Highs 38-45 occurring late in the day. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperature rising to 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain, possibly ending with brief mix/snow. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Temperatures falling in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
A wave of low pressure brings the risk of snow/mix February 9, but this will be a small area of low pressure so a subtle shift in its track would mean a significant difference in weather here. It could end up further south and largely a miss, but a little early to know for sure. Interlude of drier weather February 10-11 before another low pressure area brings unsettled weather later February 12 through February 13, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Unsettled pattern continues with another risk of precipitation, possibly a longer-duration event, favoring the second half of the period.

85 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Today / tonight / early Wednesday: Another example of a system that would have been all rain being forced to the south and largely being a miss (except a little light rain to the south). Philip take note. 🙂

  4. I admin on a few pages across Facebook. One of them is international and the admins are from both sides of the Atlantic. Even there, members are having a really hard time keeping politics off the page. Taking out rule violators left and right. So I use this opportunity as a reminder to continue to keep politics away from WHW (and I will say we have done an excellent job at that lately) and a reminder that aggressive messages toward others, especially direct insults, are also not allowed here. As always, I don’t mind chitter-chatter on sports, news, and general day-to-day things so long as we keep the overall flow to what this blog was designed for: weather. That’s why it’s called “Woods Hill Weather” and not “Woods Hill Whatever”. But a little whatever is ok. 🙂

    Have a good day all and please send good thoughts to my mom. She has an important doctor visit today! I may be a little absent from the comments at times today and in days ahead because of lots of odds & ends to take care of, and the fact that WordPress & my phone are in a disagreement that sometimes prevents me from posting in the comments until I have time to finagle it enough to listen. 😛

  14. Thanks TK, positive thoughts for you and mom!!

    Can confirm it is raining here in NJ this morning with this initial wave of energy that is largely missing SNE. Signs of spring abound here.

  20. I’m aware that part of the old and part of the new forecast is on the days one to five because of an edit mistake. I have the right version and will put that in shortly.

  22. TK, I hope all goes well with you Mom. I know you have an important doctor’s visit today.

    I hope I didn’t violate rules the other day when I mentioned “quid pro quo.” It was a lighthearted way to mix weather and the ongoing saga in Washington, without getting political.

  23. It’s kind of funny, for my sub-seasonal forecast thoughts I’ve basically been on the warm weather train all winter, using nothing more than the AO and the MJO as my guides. Limited model data, very limited to no use of any of the more obscure indices. And with the exception of the cold/snowy stretch in early December, being all in on warmth has been the way to go. And it should continue to be the way to go for at least another 2-3 weeks and probably longer. I’m still hesitant to say February will be top 10 warmest in SNE (maybe a better chance for my region and points south), but the odds look a lot better than they did a couple weeks ago.

    To be fair, reliance on those two factors alone won’t give you a good seasonal (i.e., multi-month) forecast due to lack of predictability. And their utility for precipitation is a little more limited. But for the 2-4 week temperature forecast, they’ve been unstoppable.

        1. I was being sarcastic Sue . Everyone here knows I hate winter cold & snow . I have absolutely loves how winters have been going here . For the folks who like it though I would like you to see something big before winter is out which is not that far off .

          2. Well, winters have been variable, as always, but the majority of them over the last 10 years have featured above average snowfall. 😉

            This type of winter is nothing new. Just ask the 1930s. 😉

    2. Now, you’re really being a party pooper. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Given that, I am not surprised in the slightest.

      1. Hehe, I know there are some mixed feelings in the crowd and I don’t mean to be monotonous. Don’t want to twist the knife any more than needed to get the ugly reality across 😉

        1. I don’t see meteorologists giving their thoughts about the weather as knife twisting. It’s just real speculation. 🙂

      1. Not sure what that means. I think of the volcano/earthquake area in pacific. But don’t think that is what you mean ?????

  26. Thanks TK. I hope things went OK today with your Mom’s appt.

    Man, 12z models continue to be very active for the foreseeable future through mid February. Storm after storm tracking near or right over us which spells a lot of mess events…..snow/mix to rain. Hoping NNE does better and I do expect they will be racking up some snow which should bode well for the ski areas.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    19h

    Pattern ahead vs last year’s month of February. Pretty darn similar.

    We did squeeze a bit of snow out of it last Feb and I would expect the same this time around

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1224484241217589248?s=20

  27. Frustrating winter if your a snow lover and when I saw the tweet by Meteorologist Dan Leonard about the EURO weeklies I am like bring on spring. This is just not your winter if you love the snow.

    1. No prayer until something gives with these persistent unfavorable indices. It’s one thing having the AO and MJO unfavorable as Wxwatcher described….at least you can still get some events in that pattern with a -NAO/+PNA. But when you also have those indices backwards, you can forget it.

      Everytime it looks like something is going to give in the long range, it’s back to the same old same old. Pattern persistence. I’m sure it will break just in time for late March/April to give us some nasty raw rainstorms.

      OK, I’ll stop…..beginning to sound like Dave 🙂

  29. It’s all good though. This was the scene up in my new neighborhood last night.. Just started packing the UHaul this AM…

    Stan Collins
    @stan_sdcollins
    2h

    Well here I go again blowing my way out of the garage before I go for my morning coffee with the boys. We got this snow yesterday and last night and are expecting another dump on Friday and Saturday. Until tomorrow then friends.

    https://twitter.com/stan_sdcollins/status/1224736762087596032?s=20

  31. From Eric Fisher
    Trend for Friday has been for the final wave of low pressure to tick east, bringing a chance for ice/snow to wrap up the system…especially for interior areas

  32. Thanks to each and every person who sent their positive thoughts. Mom rallied from waking up very dizzy and not feeling well (she has sinus issues that cause this) to feeling much better and making it to her appointment. I’ll be meeting her in a bit to discuss what’s next!

    Weather thoughts… Nothing really different. I do see what Eric tweeted about regarding Friday’s possible frozen end. That’s definitely still a valid possibility, but we’ll see how fast that cold gets here versus the precip’s end. I’m starting to feel a little more like Sunday’s system slides south of the area instead of coming in with snow – but nothing written in stone on that yet.

    I don’t have much of a grasp on what unfolds beyond Sunday quite yet, beyond what I already wrote above in the blog.

  34. Southern Quebec got a lot of snow in 2011-2012. It was a mild winter for them, but mild means lots of days in the low 30s. The favorable track for snows in Southern and Central Quebec that year was similar to what we’re now experiencing.

    In all my years in Boston I’ve never experienced such a consistently mild winter. Day after day, week after week. Granted, I wasn’t here in the winters in the 80s, so maybe there were really mild ones then.

    I think this winter feels milder than 2011-2012. It got very cold for a brief period in January of 2012. Even in February 2012 there were some cold nights. This year, nada, rien, nichts. It’s remarkable the lack of punch this winter has. Even the somewhat cold week in January was really not cold. Barely below average for 3 days. Anticipatory seasonal affective disorder is hitting me as I’m so not looking forward to heat and the summer.

    1. Seriously re: not looking forward to summer. Though I did just my tickets for Guns N Roses at Fenway and I’m going to see Phish for 2 nights at Piedmont Park in Atlanta—so it’s not all bad I suppose

      1. Now there are 2 bands for you. A bit of a contrast there.
        I haven’t seen either, but I imagine they both put on a good show.
        enjoy!

  35. The 1930’s had only 3 winters of above normal snowfall.

    Normal for Boston (Logan) = 43.8”

    1933-34 = 62.7”
    1934-35 = 45.4”
    1937-38 = 50.6”

    *1936-37 = 9.0” (least snowfall)

  36. Boston’s Least Snowiest

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 10.3” = 1972-73
    3. 12.7” = 1979-80
    4. 14.6” = 2019-20** (to date)
    5. 14.9” = 1994-95

    10. 19.1” = 1990-91

  37. In the last 13 days, Barrow, AK has not been ABOVE -11F!

    In the past 4 days, it hasn’t cracked -24F.

    There’s no real cold in the mid-latitudes, but it’s been a super cold winter in the arctic. This is a good for the arctic’s long term, even at the expense of our winter.

    1. That would be the +AO .. There are 2 very powerful reasons why we’re having an “easy” winter here. 🙂 The other is MJO.

    1. They are playing better again and I’m glad the Tampa Bay Lightning are pushing the Bruins to remain in 1st place. When they had raced out to a 12 to 14 pt lead, that’s when that 7-7-10 stretch or so set in.

  39. Tom, thanks for sharing the Barrow information. I have fond memories of January 2003 in Boston, walking across the Boston Common on a single digit day with wind howling. There was an extended period of cold that year, as well as 2004, I believe, and 2008 as I recall. My favorite winters have those really long periods of cold (often bright and sunny). 2011 blended cold with snow. Walking between snowbanks on Commonwealth Avenue was like being in a freezer. 2015 also combined cold with snow, but it wasn’t as cold. Memories. This year all I’ll remember from the winter is lots of gray nothingness.

  40. Philip, although 1932-1933 didn’t feature a lot of snow, I believe it was very cold. I recall reading that FDR’s inauguration, for example, was on a bitter January day. And, there were many of those in January 1933. I might be wrong about this, but I think January 2003 and 1933 shared that in common. You can probably tell I’m cold-deprived. I’m looking for any bit of cold I can imagine myself in at this point.

  41. Just read a tweet from Eric about 4 hrs ago.

    It reminded me of that event several weeks ago when there were a lot of thunderstorms to our southwest and all that extra (latent heat?) added into the atmosphere further developed the ridge and the anticipated front end dump turned to sleet and ice after much lower snowfall amounts.

    Eric correctly points out to watch this again as there will be plenty of convection to our southwest. (I realize we’re not expecting much snow, but it could unfortunately cost the
    Northern ski areas a good snowfall.

    1. On the initial wave, yes, sleet and ice to the Canadian border but they ski areas should make up for it with a good dump of snow from the second storm Friday.

    1. I like it. Thanks to Mookie and David Price for 2018.

      Devers further improvement will help make up for some of the offense. 35 to 40 million a year was going to be too much.

      The kid they are getting back from the Dodgers will be good.

      Now, go get some reliable pitching.

  44. Last time we had a system like this, latent heat release associated with widespread intense convection over the Southeast caused low pressure to track well west of where even short term models had been projecting due to it enhancing the strength of the Southeast ridge. Resulted in a much warmer storm over the East, I think it was December 16-17. Looking at the current SPC outlooks I’m interested in whether the same thing happens this time. Regardless, this storm is much more wet than white for SNE, with maybe some ice involved as well. But as Mark has alluded to, this storm appears to have good potential for ski country. My concern would be that if we get a repeat of what happened last time, when most of the guidance was caught off guard by the effects of the convection, that even some of those northern areas struggle with mixing. But I think they’re going to do well overall this time around.

    1. There’s really two storms here…the initial system Thursday which looks warm with the mix line penetrating the Canadian border. Then the second coastal storm which blows up near SNE Friday and wraps in the cold air for a significant snow event in NNE. Are you suggesting the second system ends up farther inland as well?

      1. I think “part 1” will be a decent front end thump for the north country. Yes, “part 2” will be more susceptible to the convective effects. There’s a fairly high boom/bust factor with that part of the forecast. That system is going to be quite anomalous especially in terms of moisture content. PWATs along parts of the Atlantic coast on the warm side of the storm may exceed records for this time of year. As usual in anomalous situations, I’d expect anomalous results.

        1. You can see it on the 00z GFS and ICON….lots of convection streaming up the East coast with the stronger second system. Low track is displaced further inland. NNE still does well with the back side snow after the storm wraps up off the coast, but its a mess before that.

          Much warmer look than the NAM which is pretty much all out snowstorm across the interior Friday.

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