Wednesday Forecast

54 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
A disturbance moving by to the south extended its rain shield, mixed with sleet in some areas, across the region overnight but today this is replaced by drier air, and the clouds that start the day will break for some sun, only to be replaced by more clouds by tonight. And then comes the 1-2 punch of low pressure we’ve been talking about for Thursday and Friday. Number 1 tracks northeastward into NY State but redevelops over southern New England during Thursday. The precipitation comes in as snow for a good portion of the area, although it may start as sleet or rain toward the South Coast, and this mix / change line will advance northward so that eventually rain is falling everywhere. There may be a small accumulation of snow especially along and north of I-90 before this, but the bigger deal will be that once rain is falling, the surface temperatures across parts of southern NH and north central MA may stay near to below freezing, making icing an issue. As round 1 tapers off, the new low from it, while not strong, may still serve to shove some of this surface cold a little further south, so that will be something we’ll need to watch for the arrival of round 2’s precipitation shield Thursday night into Friday, which will probably be in the form of rain for most (freezing rain where it’s cold enough) but colder air will be already set to move back in aloft as a transition to sleet/snow is a possibility as the precipitation gets ready to wrap up and exit. The speed of that exit versus the reestablishment of cold will determine how much snow ends up falling. I still lean toward a quick enough precipitation exit that the snow at the end should be minor, but even without much snow falling a temperature drop will result in wet ground becoming icy where it does not dry off from increasing wind later Friday. So that will be something else to keep an eye on. Much colder air will be here Friday night and into the coming weekend. I’ve been keeping an eye on the possibility of a low pressure area impacting the region Sunday, but the last couple updates I have been leaning toward a weaker system passing a little further south, and I still feel this way at this time, but being a few days away we still need to watch it. A shift northward would change my current drier Sunday forecast (at day 5) to a snowier one…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow arriving before dawn, may arrive as mix going right to sleet and/or rain South Coast. Lows 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow to sleet to rain transition progressing north northwestward across the region during the morning and continuing as rain afternoon except for freezing rain southern NH and north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover of a coating to 1 inch South Coast to I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 with highest amounts higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny remainder of day with a risk of passing snow showers. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Quiet weather expected February 10-11 before we enter another period of unsettled weather with several types of precipitation possible. Plenty of time to figure out the evolution of the next system… No extremes of temperature.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.

54 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. WxW … I agree with your assessment that you posted last night. And Happy NWP’s Day! šŸ˜‰

  4. Thanks TK, happy NWP Day! I am in good agreement with your thoughts above. Tomorrow morning’s commute could be very difficult. I’d expect to see a lot of school delays and probably some cancellations especially given most districts have some wiggle room thanks to the quiet winter so far.

    If you ever wanted to see a weather model basically undergo spontaneous combustion, watch the last few frames of the 6z 3km NAM over the mid-Atlantic.

    1. Ok, I’ll bite…
      what the bleep is NWP DAY?????

      Is this the celebration of 100 years of Numerical Weather Prediction????

      I haven’t a clue.

      thanks

          1. Good question. We celebrate our weather folks here daily. But others often lack the appreciation and thanks I would hope they would have. So, I think it is a good thing.

  5. Good mourning TK and WHW, as we say good-bye to MOOKIE!!!!

    What a DUMB move by Sox ownership! And they got NOTHING for him!!!
    Those moronic owner cease to amaze me with their STUPIDITY!!

    1. Mookie’s asking price would financially strangle am organization for a generation.

      The did get some controllable new talent so that will take time to see develop.

      More importantly they did obtain some financial flexibility with David Price leaving too. I know we are pay some but he would have been a 5/10 guy at the end of this year.

      Overall goof move but time will tell.

      1. IMHO, that’s absurd. They have the money and could have done this IF they wanted to do it. That is my opinion fwiw.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    I am baffled by the trade. Practically no return for 2 very good players. Both players were key to the success in 2018. Both players were under contract. Once again, the Red Sox essentially pay a player (in this case, a good player in Price) to play elsewhere.

    With this trade the Red Sox are acting like a small market team, except the Sox are a large market team with plenty of cash. To top things off the Red Sox raised ticket prices, which were already the highest in the country. This to me is a slap in the face to ordinary fans like myself who find it very hard to afford to go to a game. It says: “Why pay less when you can pay more to see our second-rate team.”

    1. You mean one good player . Price didnā€™t like it here Iā€™m glad he is gone as heā€™s a wimp !!

      1. Disagree. He was the true MVP of the 2018 World Series. Without him the Red Sox would not have won.

        Price’s attitude towards the media left a lot to be desired. And, he appeared not to like it here, but that should never be reason to ship someone out AND pay half their salary to play elsewhere. Especially a talented pitcher. Aside from Baltimore the Red Sox now have the worst pitching staff in the AL East, and one of the worst in the AL. Sale is done as a top of the line starter, in my opinion.

        I was not the biggest fan of Betts, but you have to get more than they did for this guy. Or else, you let him play out his arbitration contract.

        2. His attitude toward the media? The Boston sports media, if they have not changed, deserve no respect. Itā€™s why getting all information from sports radio can be a true trap. As far as attitude. Often greats have what is seen as an attitude, but in truth is single-minded dedication and passion.

          I like your comments, Joshua and JPD. Lots of information there

    1. Thanks Vicki! Iā€™m so sorry for most of our gang about this quiet winter as we have so many snow lovers who are missing their season, but I, for one, am loving it!

  13. Thank you TK!
    Also a big thank you and happy NWP day to all of the true professionals on this blog that contribute helping to keep us informed, educated , and sometimes grounded!!

    1. “perhaps” 5. Interesting. Waiting for COD or Picotal site to get Kuchera Snow.
      I was only looking at 850 mb temps from Instant Weather, so there could
      be other precip type issues.

  20. Vicki, I agree with you on the Boston sports media. It’s a very tough town for athletes to play in, because of what Pitino referred to as “all that negativity.” This said, the media in Boston are informed, the fan bases care, and it is the media’s job to offer criticism when it is merited. My issue with Price was with how he handled the Dennis Eckersley incident. Eckersley is not a homer when he offers color commentary. He will call out a player. I like that about him. Price took issue with it. Fair enough. But the way he did it was petulant.

    All that said, we’ve lost two really intelligent players. David Price is a very smart man. Thoughtful interviews. He’s introspective and interesting. Mookie’s kind of interesting, too, and certainly a thoughtful and generous man.

    1. Ok well the weather should be getting interesting Iā€™m reporting at 1AM Iā€™ll update .

  22. January was a very warm month worldwide. Sure, there were a few cold spots. But, most of the world was exceptionally mild. Oslo, Norway, had no snow and no frost. That’s unheard of. I’ve already reported on what’s happening in Holland where there’s barely been any frost all winter. Ducklings are being hatched, 2 months ahead of schedule: https://twitter.com/ErikKleyheeg/status/1223306429647532032

    In Boston, on my long jogs along the river I’ve seen mating rituals among some of the geese and ducks. I’ve never seen this happen this early, ever. And, I’ve been doing these jogs and making these observations for decades. There will be ducklings here in late February. I’m quite sure of that.

  23. Watching the model pressure forecasts for this low trend lower and lower has me thinking about Friday afternoon and evening. I donā€™t know that I would call what the NAM, for example, is showing a ā€œsting jetā€ in the most classic sense, but there is some resemblance.

    Short translation: donā€™t be surprised if some areas from the mid-Atlantic into New England see a short lived but intense burst of wind late on Friday.

  24. I have 32 in the city if thatā€™s correct just waiting for it now shouldnā€™t be long .

  26. It was coming down pretty good in the 4- 5am timeframe itā€™s basically shut off here now for this part of the city . On WBZ I think at 6am they said Logan was 36.

  27. New low for my kids school. School canceled outright. My lawn is barely covered. Everyone else is open or maybe has a 2 hour delay.

        1. My guess is since it’s not a public school they rely on a particular contractor to clear the grounds and they were either late or didn’t show.

          1. No they follow Woburn public which has a two hour delay. The problem was they had a half day today which is 11:30 dismissal…a two hour delay would have put them in school at 10:30. I see the reason just sucks to get a snow day for literally under an inch.

            1. Well that’s just a matter of timing then. If it was a scheduled half day I’d have just canceled it too. The roads were actually pretty nasty in some areas earlier and are still greasy now. At least this winter so far they have the snow days to spare.

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