DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
A disturbance moving by to the south extended its rain shield, mixed with sleet in some areas, across the region overnight but today this is replaced by drier air, and the clouds that start the day will break for some sun, only to be replaced by more clouds by tonight. And then comes the 1-2 punch of low pressure we’ve been talking about for Thursday and Friday. Number 1 tracks northeastward into NY State but redevelops over southern New England during Thursday. The precipitation comes in as snow for a good portion of the area, although it may start as sleet or rain toward the South Coast, and this mix / change line will advance northward so that eventually rain is falling everywhere. There may be a small accumulation of snow especially along and north of I-90 before this, but the bigger deal will be that once rain is falling, the surface temperatures across parts of southern NH and north central MA may stay near to below freezing, making icing an issue. As round 1 tapers off, the new low from it, while not strong, may still serve to shove some of this surface cold a little further south, so that will be something we’ll need to watch for the arrival of round 2’s precipitation shield Thursday night into Friday, which will probably be in the form of rain for most (freezing rain where it’s cold enough) but colder air will be already set to move back in aloft as a transition to sleet/snow is a possibility as the precipitation gets ready to wrap up and exit. The speed of that exit versus the reestablishment of cold will determine how much snow ends up falling. I still lean toward a quick enough precipitation exit that the snow at the end should be minor, but even without much snow falling a temperature drop will result in wet ground becoming icy where it does not dry off from increasing wind later Friday. So that will be something else to keep an eye on. Much colder air will be here Friday night and into the coming weekend. I’ve been keeping an eye on the possibility of a low pressure area impacting the region Sunday, but the last couple updates I have been leaning toward a weaker system passing a little further south, and I still feel this way at this time, but being a few days away we still need to watch it. A shift northward would change my current drier Sunday forecast (at day 5) to a snowier one…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow arriving before dawn, may arrive as mix going right to sleet and/or rain South Coast. Lows 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow to sleet to rain transition progressing north northwestward across the region during the morning and continuing as rain afternoon except for freezing rain southern NH and north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover of a coating to 1 inch South Coast to I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 with highest amounts higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny remainder of day with a risk of passing snow showers. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Quiet weather expected February 10-11 before we enter another period of unsettled weather with several types of precipitation possible. Plenty of time to figure out the evolution of the next system… No extremes of temperature.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.