Low numbers coming in today. It’s Monday, so there’s a partial weekend effect. But still, I like what I’m seeing. The pathogen intensity is diminishing, as reflected in a significant slowing of new daily cases. The hospitalizations are trending downward. And, deaths are slowly decreasing. I predict today’s death numbers will be the best Monday numbers in two months.
I’m not convinced we’ll have a second wave. I think more of a slow retreat, with occasional spikes here and there.
I do realize testing has decreased in the past week. But, the decline in new daily cases far outstrips the decline in testing. And, test positivity nationwide is down to around 6.7%. That’s still way too high, but it’s good news that there’s been a steady decrease.
I do wonder though if once K-12 schools and colleges/universities reopen, numbers go back up again as part of the beginning of a second wave.
Somewhat, but I’m not convinced it’ll be more than what we’ve already seen.
The pattern that’s playing itself out worldwide is that the virus hits a city or region hard and after that finds it much more difficult to find new hosts in that city or region. It’s striking how in Europe the upswing in cases – which by the way is already diminishing except for France – occurred in each country in a new region. This is similar to the U.S.
Herd immunity? Not really. That would occur at much higher rates of seroprevalence. But, seroprevalence rates of 15% or higher + T cell cross immunity ~ mitigated form of herd immunity. I believe it’s this low level of disease, which will still be dangerous for some, that we’ll be contending with until there’s been sufficient uptake of a safe and effective vaccines (next spring or summer).
“ I’m not convinced we’ll have a second wave. I think more of a slow retreat, with occasional spikes here and there.”
What is your thinking in regards to this? Just a feeling or some data set?
When kids started summer school and camp, their positive rate spiked 40%. They had been quarantined. So silly everyone thought they didn’t get Covid. What happens when they go back full time or even hybrid.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the new testing via saliva instead of both nostrils? I also heard that the FDA has approved it.
In addition, the new saliva test results take less than 3 hours and have a 94% accuracy rate. Good enough for me.
The current tests take 24-48 hours and sometimes longer.
Dr. S, thus far, second waves in Europe this month, if we can call them that, have been fairly muted. In fact, with the exception of France, it’s fairly clear at this point that this month’s second wave in Europe is sputtering a bit in terms of growth. It’s become stagnant in most regions. [There are exceptions where new restrictions are in place] This doesn’t mean there won’t be a second or third wave in the fall. But, I’m skeptical, given that in many of these countries reopening is actually much further along than we are. Schools have been in session for several weeks in many countries. Restaurants and nightclubs have been open at almost 100% capacity in many countries. The virus is having trouble finding many new hosts. It’s finding them for sure, but when the worst outbreak thus far, France, has 3,000 cases a day, you know that something is up.
Remember that the virus was similarly hobbled here in the U.S. in early June. Unfortunately, it then caught the midnight train to Georgia, among other states, where it hadn’t penetrated deeply in March and April. For the past 2 months we’ve seen it grow like wildfire in states that had not been impacted much at all early on.
For the U.S., I’ve always maintained that what we’re seeing is a continuation of the first wave. We have a bizarrely shaped case and death curve. No other country has it to this degree. Of course, no other industrialized, wealthy nation is as large as the U.S. So, in some ways it makes sense that the virus penetrates regions in an almost piecemeal fashion. That process has accelerated this summer with road trips and now students returning to classes. But, for the most part, the significant case growth has been confined to around 15 states, mostly in the Southern tier of the nation.
That makes sense. Thanks Joshua. I was thinking we are further behind. I do worry about a large uptick when kids get back to school.
C-19 chat post for 8-18 is ready…
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Low numbers coming in today. It’s Monday, so there’s a partial weekend effect. But still, I like what I’m seeing. The pathogen intensity is diminishing, as reflected in a significant slowing of new daily cases. The hospitalizations are trending downward. And, deaths are slowly decreasing. I predict today’s death numbers will be the best Monday numbers in two months.
I’m not convinced we’ll have a second wave. I think more of a slow retreat, with occasional spikes here and there.
I do realize testing has decreased in the past week. But, the decline in new daily cases far outstrips the decline in testing. And, test positivity nationwide is down to around 6.7%. That’s still way too high, but it’s good news that there’s been a steady decrease.
I do wonder though if once K-12 schools and colleges/universities reopen, numbers go back up again as part of the beginning of a second wave.
Somewhat, but I’m not convinced it’ll be more than what we’ve already seen.
The pattern that’s playing itself out worldwide is that the virus hits a city or region hard and after that finds it much more difficult to find new hosts in that city or region. It’s striking how in Europe the upswing in cases – which by the way is already diminishing except for France – occurred in each country in a new region. This is similar to the U.S.
Herd immunity? Not really. That would occur at much higher rates of seroprevalence. But, seroprevalence rates of 15% or higher + T cell cross immunity ~ mitigated form of herd immunity. I believe it’s this low level of disease, which will still be dangerous for some, that we’ll be contending with until there’s been sufficient uptake of a safe and effective vaccines (next spring or summer).
“ I’m not convinced we’ll have a second wave. I think more of a slow retreat, with occasional spikes here and there.”
What is your thinking in regards to this? Just a feeling or some data set?
When kids started summer school and camp, their positive rate spiked 40%. They had been quarantined. So silly everyone thought they didn’t get Covid. What happens when they go back full time or even hybrid.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the new testing via saliva instead of both nostrils? I also heard that the FDA has approved it.
In addition, the new saliva test results take less than 3 hours and have a 94% accuracy rate. Good enough for me.
The current tests take 24-48 hours and sometimes longer.
Absolutely best article I have seen
https://www.millburysutton.com/news/20200817/grist-for-mills-risk-to-exist?fbclid=IwAR1a4-ohpTjU-3iC2gmjRhCCRzLpxkVeEiEakHXKDbgSkespfEAbrNtdtqo
Dr. S, thus far, second waves in Europe this month, if we can call them that, have been fairly muted. In fact, with the exception of France, it’s fairly clear at this point that this month’s second wave in Europe is sputtering a bit in terms of growth. It’s become stagnant in most regions. [There are exceptions where new restrictions are in place] This doesn’t mean there won’t be a second or third wave in the fall. But, I’m skeptical, given that in many of these countries reopening is actually much further along than we are. Schools have been in session for several weeks in many countries. Restaurants and nightclubs have been open at almost 100% capacity in many countries. The virus is having trouble finding many new hosts. It’s finding them for sure, but when the worst outbreak thus far, France, has 3,000 cases a day, you know that something is up.
Remember that the virus was similarly hobbled here in the U.S. in early June. Unfortunately, it then caught the midnight train to Georgia, among other states, where it hadn’t penetrated deeply in March and April. For the past 2 months we’ve seen it grow like wildfire in states that had not been impacted much at all early on.
For the U.S., I’ve always maintained that what we’re seeing is a continuation of the first wave. We have a bizarrely shaped case and death curve. No other country has it to this degree. Of course, no other industrialized, wealthy nation is as large as the U.S. So, in some ways it makes sense that the virus penetrates regions in an almost piecemeal fashion. That process has accelerated this summer with road trips and now students returning to classes. But, for the most part, the significant case growth has been confined to around 15 states, mostly in the Southern tier of the nation.
That makes sense. Thanks Joshua. I was thinking we are further behind. I do worry about a large uptick when kids get back to school.
C-19 chat post for 8-18 is ready…