Monday August 17 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

Discussion…

The maritime air feel of the weekend lingers as we start the new week today, but we’ll start to lose that as low pressure pulls away from the region. A brief wind shift to a more southerly direction by evening precedes a trough / cold front which may kick off a few showers and even a thunderstorm as it crosses the region late tonight and early Tuesday. Behind this comes a drier westerly air flow and fair weather. The high pressure area that builds in by the middle of the week will stay around into late week too with some great late summer weather resulting.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few patches of fog, a bit of drizzle, and a brief light shower possible, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH early, becoming variable up to 10 MPH through early afternoon then S up to 10 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm favoring the Cape Cod area until mid morning. 77-84. Dew point falling lower 60s to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-81 South Coast, 82-87 elsewhere. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Higher humidity and showers/thunderstorms August 22-23 weekend, and a frontal boundary hanging nearby may keep some showers around into August 24 before high pressure builds in and returns fair weather to the region for the remainder of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

High pressure is expected to be in control with generally fair weather and near to above normal temperatures for much of if not all of this period.

47 thoughts on “Monday August 17 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)”

    1. Thanks TK! I see the Mid-Atlantic is doing quite well in the rainfall department…no talk of drought there for sure. Interesting how we are “just” missing out.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Managed 0.27 inch ye ole bucket from last evening’s rain event.
    Not much, but I’ll take it.

  4. Morning darkness is now encroaching on 6:00 am (5:55) as well as evening darkness on 7:30 pm (7:40). 🙁

  6. Have we ended our 90 degree days for the season?
    I certainly hope so, but I am well aware that 90s can happen
    through all of September and I have seen it close to if not
    90 in October before.

      1. Logan is at its average of 14 so far. Hopefully the additional days won’t go into double digits.

        I suppose with our luck it will be 8 or 9 additional days. 😉

        1. Not to mention there will always be a bunch of 88-89’s. In terms of how one feels, what’s the difference really?

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Interesting article on “fire tornadoes” in Northern California.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/us/loyalton-fire-tornado.html

    Jean, I don’t think we’re done with days of 90 plus degrees. Could get one later this week, in fact. Certainly inland. Based on the persistence of the pattern – in spite of the break we’ve gotten the past few days – we’ll be prone to the possibility of 90 plus days for 4 weeks. This said, summer and heat are on the retreat.

    1. Very likely the highest reliably measured temperature ever on Earth.

      A 134F reading was measured at Death Valley in 1913. Many experts see that reading as dubious. A 131F measurement was made in Tunisia in 1931 and is almost universally regarded as erroneous.

      A previous world record of 136F in Libya has been tossed by the WMO within the past few years.

  13. The system in the Gulf (as progged by the global guidance) is the lead disturbance of the 2 identified by the current tropical update. Something to watch, but I don’t have a lot of confidence it that thing. The one behind it that is given a 70% chance of evolving into a tropical cyclone within 5 days is likely to have a fate similar to that of Josephine. We should not see too much in the way of wild action through the rest of August in the Atlantic Basin, though it may get a little more active than it is now before month’s end. I think September is the time to watch. And initially we may be looking at stuff a little further south than “average”. THAT SAID, I would be lying if I said the ECMWF today didn’t make me a little nervous. 😉 But you know what they say about models more than a few days out…………….

    2. Ha ! Spent time today on the Kancamangus Hagg today. Stopped in North Conway while my wife does some shopping, thought, I’ll look at the euro and here’s a projected 960 mb hurricane off of the east coast for the day we return home. Maybe I’ll add a day or 2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Thank you both ! I’ll recommend that to my wife, JpDave.

          We went to lower falls today. I was expecting the rivers/streams to be a trickle. They are low, but not as low as I thought they might be.

      3. The kanc….a friend from Sutton is up there. I am green with envy. You know how special that area is to me. Enjoy

  15. The general vibe “on the street” right now (i.e., most online meteorology circles) is that one or more hurricanes will threaten the US around 7 to 10 days from now.

    To be fair, there are plenty of credible meteorologists saying or suggesting as much, and there are some meteorological ingredients in place that support it. I can’t say one way or the other, but always good to maintain awareness this time of year that we’re approaching peak season!

    1. What are the ingredients? Mainly, the MJO pulse which I discussed yesterday, combined with the impending development of a stronger than average Berumda high which will tend to prevent storms from recurving out to sea.

      Limiting factors? There is quite a bit of Saharan dry air and, especially, wind shear across the basin. It does not seem to (yet, at least) be the ultra-favorable background state a lot of seasonal forecasts are pricing in. And I think that is what TK is talking about. So it probably will not be a cakewalk for these disturbances to develop. The downside of that, though, is that the later they develop (if they do) the more likely they become to affect the US Gulf or East coasts.

  16. According to Eric, 90s both weekend days. 🙁

    It does appear to cool down again (82) though on Monday. Hope that stays around.

    1. Grass has remained mostly healthy and green here after watering every other night. Though starting today our town has a complete water ban. I don’t have much of a choice now but to let it dry up :). Hopefully September will bring us more rain chances than August.

      1. Thanks Chris. I do not recall where you are. We are sort of ok. Areas in back yard are like sticks. But when we lost power we missed an even night and then when we turned system back on I didn’t realize the time was messed up from power failure. I see a few neighbors who are letting it go.

    2. Mine’s 90% dormant. I’ve watered the small garden areas around the house so they are fine.

  18. Is the ECMWF concerning? A little.

    It has some support from the Ensembles, but there are plenty og Euro Ensemble members that sent it into the Gulf too.

    Of course, the system itself still hasn’t formed. As I’ve said several times this season – Until there’s actually a storm for the models to initialize, I treat ALL model solutions as suspect.

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