Tuesday September 1 2020 Forecast (7:33AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Discussion…

With a warmer and drier than average meteorological summer in the books, we move onto the next meteorological season, the first month of which is still holding astronomical summer days as its majority. Ah well, who said us weather people were not a little bit off balance. Maybe we have to be to do this silly prediction thing every day. 😛 Regardless, there is weather to be prognosticated, so let’s get to it! The high pressure area that brought us comfortable weather to end the month of August has shifted to the east, but its center, like many before it during the summer, is far enough north that we’ll have an easterly to southeasterly air flow for a couple days, keeping temperatures in check, but allowing humidity to creep up a bit. This will also occur with variable to considerable cloud cover at times, but little if any precipitation, another theme we’ve gotten used to as we remain in drought. By midweek, we will find that the high has shifted far enough southeast that we have a warm and humid southwesterly flow by Thursday and a slightly less humid but very warm westerly air flow by Friday. During this time, a couple of cold fronts will push into the region from the west, the first one bringing a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, with slightly drier air behind it, and the second one coming through Friday night probably without any shower threat, but bringing the temperature down somewhat as we reach the first day of the Labor Day Weekend Saturday, and a new bubble of high pressure approaches from the west, this one staying more to the southwest unlike many of its predecessors.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy but some sun as well. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Patchy fog/drizzle. Highs 70-77. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. High pressure at the surface passes south of the region September 6-7 of the Labor Day Weekend with warmer and more humid weather, and a cold front approaching on September 7 may bring a shower or thunderstorm threat. High pressure builds in with dry and slightly cooler weather September 8, then a quick warm up and increased humidity as the high shifts offshore. Another cold front approaches late period with a risk of a shower/t-storm.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday September 1 2020 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  5. Thanks TK.

    On my way into work this morning I noticed some trees starting to color a bit, as if on cue for the first day of the first month of fall. 🙂

  6. This morning Matt Noyes gave his monthly outlook and he seems VERY concerned for the east coast and tropical activity. It will also be above normal temps. That figures.

    Some good news…near normal precipitation.

    1. The good news for the East Coast is there is nothing likely in the next 10 days that will find itself in the classic place.

  7. Thank you, TK

    Lawns are starting to recover a bit here. The little precip we have had and I suspect overnight dew has helped.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Tropical Storm Nana has formed in the Caribbean with a reconnaissance plane finding a small but well defined center and winds of at least 50 mph. It will impact portions of Central America, mainly as a heavy rain/mudslide threat. Tropical Depression 15 off the US coast has not yet become a tropical storm, though recent satellite trends suggest it may briefly do so today. It would be named Omar.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    A general weather/climate note for today… if you hadn’t noticed, La Nina has become quite strong in the Pacific. This will likely linger into the winter, so expect to hear a lot more on that as the seasonal winter forecasts start to come out in the next month or two.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

  9. Thank you, TK.

    While it’s beautiful outside, it still feels like summer. TK alludes to that in his forecast as we’re still very much in summer mode. And, as the week progresses the warmth and humidity will increase. I guess I’ll have to wait ~10-14 more days until there’s a palpable, consistent decrease in humidity. I’m hoping.

    2. I forecast for a radio station in Langdon, ND. Not only are they looking at their potential first frost early next week (about a week earlier than normal), they may have several days with highs only in the 50s, with one day possibly staying in the 40s, despite bright sunshine.

      Oh yeah, it snowed in parts of Montana yesterday, mainly above 8000 feet. https://twitter.com/bigskyresort/status/1300545121646260225?s=20

      It may still feel like summer here, but autumn is definitely settling in across many parts of the nation.

  10. I took a walk to my local pond yesterday to find that the water level continues to drop and is getting very close to 2016 levels.

  12. I love love this weather. Lower DPs, cool breezes. Awesome clouds to watch. I remember waking up more than once on Labor Day weekends to a frost In Rangeley ME as we headed out to fish.

    1. The WHW forecast area was treated to a very nice day thanks to a stabilizing easterly wind, while just outside the area it was rather cloudy.

      My mom loves this kind of weather to go out and do yard work, so she did that. She’s been smartly limiting herself to about 1 hour on any given afternoon, checking for ticks and rehydrating right after she’s done.

      1. I do adore your mom. I suspect like me she finds this invigorating. Please tell her I said hi and send a hug

    1. Hoping the same. Couldn’t handle a repeat of last winter, then followed up by a warm summer.

      -PDO bodes well for Greenland. Maybe I’ll move there … No, can’t. C-19.

  14. The PDO is one piece to the puzzle. It is not set in stone that it will be a dud of a winter. I am trying to stay positive.

  16. TK, watching intently but not sure if the Islanders are going to be able to pull this one out tonight. We’ll see. They have been a strong third period team during the playoffs.

  21. Too bad we never hear TK say “I have a ‘funny feeling’ this nor’easter is going to stall at the benchmark and dump a widespread 3-5 feet snow on SNE”. That will be the day I rent a bucket loader for my driveway!

    1. February 2013. I locked into a big snowstorm about 5 or 6 days in advance. Every once in a great while the pattern just talks loudly to you.

      1. I remember the exact street corner in Stamford I was at on 2/5/13 ( or maybe it was 2/4) when I checked my phone and saw the 12zGFS finally caving to the Euro and showing NEMO bombing out and moving up the coast. Most memorable winter storm I have experienced.

  22. I hope we 1-2 good Nor’easters this winter after a disappointing last winter if you are a snow fan. I am rooting for the Farmers’ Almanac to be right about the 1-2 feet of snow from a blizzard there predicting for the second week of February.

    1. They seem to predict that every year for that general timeframe. Eventually the law of averages will work out and they will get one right!

      I’m glad the PDO looks like crap now rather than in December. Plenty of time for things to change.

    2. If that forecast is right it would only be because of extreme luck. No way to predict snowfall accumulation from a storm only guess will exist a half a year in advance. 😉

  23. I am not discouraged by what the PDO is looking like today. Even though some people reading that on twitter thinking this winter is going be dud it was too early to say for certain this winter will be a dud.

  24. Go NYI! Go NYI! It would be ultimate if they could take out the Caps, Flyers, and (I know I’m getting way ahead of myself), the “Bolts”. GO NYI!!!

            1. Haha! Well, whether it’s by 1 goal or 10 goals, I just hope they win on Thursday. 🙂

              Vancouver did the same thing tonight, won game 5 over Vegas to avoid elimination.

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