DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
Discussion…
Low pressure passes north of New England today through tonight. It parents a warm front which moves through our region today bringing a mainly overcast sky with a period of showers. While not a widespread beneficial rain, it looks as if most areas will see at least a period of showers, and a few of them may even be moderate. This move out later today but introduces higher humidity to the region. What used to be a cold front will pass through the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms that visit New York State will struggle to survive their trip eastward through our area, but a few may make it in. There is not much of an air mass change behind this. In fact, if anything with more sun and higher humidity Thursday, it’ll feel more like the middle of summer. A more meaningful cold front will cross the region Thursday night, and while support is not likely to be that good for shower and thunderstorm activity, the front will knock the dew point down during Friday, which itself will still be a very warm day, and we’ll be waiting for a “quiet” trough of low pressure to pass by Friday night to knock the temperature back a few notches for the start of the Labor Day Weekend on Saturday as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. This high, unlike any that have been north of us this summer to start with, will slide quickly south of the region and warm it right back up bit a bit more humidity again by Sunday, although both Saturday and Sunday will feature lots of sun.
Details…
TODAY: Cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing later in the day with clouds may break. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially later in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower including a slight risk of a thunderstorm west of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast this period. Surface pattern brings a cold front toward the region Labor Day September 7, but any shower activity may hold off until late day or at night. High pressure noses in from the north with fair weather and drier air September 8 before sliding offshore with warmer and more humid weather mid period before another cold front arrives around September 10 with a shower threat and brings drier air for the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
Continued larger scale pattern of high pressure mostly off the East Coast but surface high pressure following a familiar pattern we’ve seen the last few months. This period likely features below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures. Too soon to know day-to-day weather but would lean toward shower threats around September 13 and 15.
Thanks, TK!!!
Good morning and thank you TK
Thanks TK.
Thank you TK. Dew points rising – looks like time for the A/C again.
It has been nice having windows open, hasn’t it?
It’s been refreshing having the windows open – classic summer days
Yes yes yes
Thanks, TK. I always hope for warm weather on Labor Day for many whose “club” pools close that day.
Looks pretty warm!
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK
In the take it with a grain of salt. Tweet about the upcoming winter from meteorologist Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1301150383239290881
Thank you TK! I have some beneficial steady moderate rain moving through at the moment, not drought busting by any means but every little bit helps.
The 00z ECMWF brings an early-season snowstorm to the Rockies next Tuesday-Thursday. Using 10:1, it drops about 14″ in Denver, and more than 2 feet in the higher elevations. Using Kuchera, it’s 2 feet in Denver and 3-5 feet in the mountains. It does spread some of the snow into the High Plains of western Nerbaska/Kansas, the Black Hills of South Dakota, and a little bit across central and northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota.
The GFS has a 1-3 inches in the higher elevations of Colorado/Wyoming.
Denver’s normal snowfall for September is 1.0″, but they haven’t had any snow in September since a Trace in 2014. The last time they had measurable snow in September was 0.2″ in 2000. Their September record is 17.2″ in 1971. Despite the 1.0″ normal for September, their average date for 1st measurable snowfall is October 18. Their earliest 1st snow is September 3, 1961.
It should also be noted that the obs moved to the new Denver International Airport in 2008, which is on the Plains 20 miles east-northeast of the City with absolutely nothing around it.
Let the mayhem begin.
Dave Taylor, if he was still with us, would say something like: “Of course you realize the average has been skewed a bit by that minor event in ’71!”
Is that what you call a “Rocky Mountain High”?
I love snow but that is too soon for me. When the leaves are all off the trees let the snow begin to fly.
Thank you, TK.
0.12 inch on the day so far with a bit more to go through.
D.C. Baltimore areas be weather aware tomorrow. 10 percent tornado chance.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
A bit more rain than I expected here in Back Bay. Not a lot, but certainly enough to provide some relief to stressed trees, grass, and vegetation.
Philip, you mentioned seeing a few signs of foliage yesterday. I believe what you were observing were signs of foliage, but more stress-induced rather than, say, temperature differential induced. Here’s a nice primer on foliage from the University of Vermont: https://pss.uvm.edu/ppp/articles/fallleaves.html
Thanks Joshua.
0.24 on the day here. Don’t think there will be much more.
I would call today’s rain a slight over-achievement. Nothing major, but every little bit helps to some degree. It’s still going to take a series of non-heavy events to unbake the soils. If we don’t get the type of pattern to do that before the heart of winter, a modest snowcover can help the cause later on. I still think the drought ends in the spring (partially pending the status of ENSO), but I’m getting way ahead of myself considering I’m not even sure of the winter pattern yet, and won’t be for 2 1/2 months….maybe…… 😉
Increased tornado risk Wednesday northern Mid Atlantic centered around Delmarva & DC. Even higher potential Thursday, pretty significant in fact.
Thoughts WxW if you are reading this?
Tomorrow has me concerned. There’s been a lot of clouds around today so we may be mostly ok this evening, though shear is decent so worth keeping an eye on if anything gets going. But the wind fields tomorrow are really impressive, not only a good magnitude of shear but a lot of directional shear/low level veering too. With the high PWATs and low LCLs I expect to see a couple of tornadoes in the enhanced risk area. I do think the overall areal coverage of severe weather may not be somewhat limited because of instability issues to the north. But areas that get hit could get hit hard.
Glad you chimed in! We are definitely watching it close down here, pretty rare to see SPC break out the 10% tornado contour around here.
*may be somewhat limited 😛
That should say today and tomorrow. I have no idea why I spoke like they were further out in the future…
one of my longtime weather friends who lives down in that area is probably going to be chasing tomorrow depending on what happens.
We’ve had a real busy summer. I’ve only lived here a couple years so my perception is heavily skewed, but I’ve come to think of this area as getting a lot more severe weather and a lot less winter weather than I expected or at least was used to. Of course, we do on average get more severe and less winter weather than SNE, but it’s been two pronounced active severe seasons and very quiet winter seasons since I got here.
That would definitely skew things. I think the t-storm season 3 years ago was much more quiet, according to my friend.
Whale hunting in Northern Greenland, in Thule (or Qaanaaq). Video is embedded in the story: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-documentary/greenlands-tradition-of-narwhal-hunting-in-the-other-world?
It took all day, but it’s pretty tropical now ……
I closed windows a bit after noon and dp up to 68 now
0.43 in bucket
I don’t know how much rain Marshfield got, but we did get a few bouts of steady, even heavy rain. I wouldn’t be surprised if we received somewhere between .2 and .4
AC is cranking tonight.
My Ac back on also. The rain was gloriously light to moderate all day here
0.20 at Logan
The real “Tom Terrific”, Tom Seaver, passed away tonight at age 75 after a long battle with dementia. He was one of my favorite pitchers growing up. Even though he was at the end of the line, when the Red Sox acquired him for the stretch run in 1986, I was beyond ecstatic.
Not that the day matters as he was a tremulous. He passed Monday I believe which was the day after The birthday of the greatest hitter ever. What an amazing team heaven has.
Ed Harding was fighting off tears when talking about him at the news desk on last night’s 11PM news cast. Loved Tom myself as well.
New Wx post is ready!