16 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 2 2020”

  1. Analyzing the European data this morning. A couple of encouraging signs. It appears the partial `lockdowns’ are beginning to work in the Netherlands and Germany. The Netherlands peaked last week in terms of new infections. Hospitalizations and ICU usage are still rising, but the slope (increase) is now quite flat. The partial lockdown was not nearly as stringent as the media in the U.S. portray it to be. Museums, movie theaters, and even regular theaters as well as gyms and sport clubs are still open, though subject to capacity limits. All schools are open, too. The restrictions are focused on bars and restaurants (closed entirely), and enforcement of limits on gathering sizes as well as household guests (basically prohibits more than 1 daily guest from visiting indoors).

    The Dutch and German governments pay all business owners affected 75% of their normal revenue so they can keep most if not all employees for the duration of the `lockdown.’ It’s presumed that much of the remaining 25% is in variable costs that won’t need to be incurred during the lockdown (restaurants: costs of food/drink/heating/water). This helps to explain why our unemployment continues to be in the 8% range (probably much higher given that large numbers have left the workforce entirely, including almost 1 million women!) while Germany and the Netherlands hover around 5 to 6%.

    I think this shows that outside of household transmission (65% or more of all transmissions), bars, restaurants, and large gatherings without distancing are where most transmissions take place.

    1. At least Europe supports their businesses unlike in the U.S. Good luck on any stimulus or assistance coming anytime soon from Congress.

  2. According to Stanford University researchers, President Trump’s campaign rallies have resulted in an estimated 30,000 corona virus cases and likely 700 deaths.

    1. I have a bad feeling that it will only be a matter of time that shutdowns will return like they were back in March/April.

  3. Don’t think we’ll have anything close to the shutdown we had in March/April in Massachusetts. Nor do I think that kind of lockdown is probable anywhere in the U.S. And, even European nations are not implementing full lockdowns. In fact, as I mentioned above, many `lockdowns’ there do not involve schools, construction, museums, movie theaters, gyms, sporting events, etc … They do include strict enforcement of gathering sizes – this includes ALL demonstrations (eg, there were demonstrations in Berlin last week and fines were handed out to dozens of people), bars and restaurants completely closed, close contact professions like hairdressers closed, and travel restrictions.

    1. I agree. We are in a better place. I shook my head when baker said that closing schools was a mistake. We had no idea what the virus was. We did not have safeguards in place nor did we know what safeguards should be put in place. The safety of kids has to be a priority. Always,,

      The same applies to businesses. We now safeguards proven by science to work in place. We have learned what to do so extreme measures hopefully won’t be needed.

  4. Glad he made a point to note that schools have not played a role in the rising numbers. Cause for optimism in the K-12 education space…

    1. I am also except I have lost Some faith in him. There are varying views On schools. I pray they continue to remain covid .

      But When asked why he didn’t make new regs mandatory, his comment that people in MA have for the most part done as they should makes me wonder why he has to add restrictions.

  5. Trump’s disinformation tweet from 2 hours ago:

    Joe Biden is promising to delay the vaccine and turn America into a prison state—locking you in your home while letting far-left rioters roam free. The Biden Lockdown will mean no school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgiving, no Christmas, no Fourth of July.

    — — —

    I’m telling you, folks, not even Donald believes his own tweet.

    I’m all for a healthy debate, a real back and forth. We didn’t get any of that, sadly.

  6. On the day Baker announces new restrictions Massachusetts has its best day in nearly 2 weeks, also low test positivity. Curious to know if this trend continues this week.

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