Friday February 5 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)

303 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Low pressure takes the express lane through the St. Lawrence Valley today and its trailing frontal systems (warm front / cold front / occlusion) produce a minor precipitation event for us, mostly rain, a bit of snow interior higher elevations. This exits tonight and is replaced by dry and seasonably chilly weather Saturday. As the temperature falls below freezing tonight into early Saturday, watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces that are wet from rain and/or melting snow! Continuing to watch 2 piece of energy in a split jet stream for Sunday. The current idea is that we’ll get clipped by the northern edge of the snow shield from the southern stream storm system during the late morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday which will result in a minor snowfall accumulation especially for the New England South Coast, while the northern energy will come along in the form of a cold front which may produce a few late-day snow showers or even a snow squall. This introduces colder air for Monday, briefly. Another low pressure system will race eastward in the jet stream and while a little bit uncertain on its fine details, I figure at this time that this system can produce a minor snow/mix event Monday night and early Tuesday as it comes through the region while weakening, as it won’t have a lot of support with it.

TODAY: Clouds thicken up. A period or two of rain from late morning through mid afternoon moving west to east across the region, except may fall as snow in interior higher elevations of central MA and southern NH with minor accumulation of under 1 inch. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow arriving morning and exiting afternoon with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch except 1-3 inches South Coast region. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix possible. Temperatures steady or rising slightly to 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix/rain possible early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Colder weather will likely be dominant as arctic air that enters the US well west of here spills slowly eastward in pieces while the storm track starts out mainly south of here but may edge closer by later in the period. More elaboration on this period of time in future blog updates.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events during mid February near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Too soon for any details and trying to pick out any specific events.

303 thoughts on “Friday February 5 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Regular NAM backed off and largely missed SE however the 6z GEFS and 3km NAM are NW and juiced for Sunday and especially RI and SE MA.

    3km NAM:
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2021020506&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3km NAM snow and not done yet:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2021020506&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Weird to see the two NAMs so far apart.

    GFS ensemble mean gets 6” into Boston…

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/20210205_074953.jpg.64f48383166b817e272f55944d4016e7.jpg

  3. Latest GFS and Euro operational runs are about 2” hartford to Boston, trending higher along the south coast.

    Overnight RPM runs take the low center over Marshfield, lol.

  6. Funny how the NAM lead the way on the NW trend and then the other models followed and now the NAM is leading the trend SE.

    HMMM

    1. Oh, I am LIKING the 3KM NAM very much!

      Best put a WINTER STORM WATCH OUT NOW!!! So people
      can be prepared! 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. I think they ought to wait for one more suite package prior to hoisting a watch. If the NAM holds serve and there is other model support later today, then I tend to agree with you. I’m not buying the bigger totals just yet given the progressive nature of this storm, divergence of model data and lack of phasing with the northern energy. Quite interesting, nonetheless!

          1. Arod, I was joking around. I do NOT seriously think they should hoist the watch at this time.

            Perhaps later conditions may warrant it.

            This thing could still pass SOUTH of us.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    Happy National Weather Persons Day!

    Celebrating the 1744 birth of John Jeffries, a Boston physician and one of America’s first weather observers!

    Happy Birthday, Mama Mia!

    Happy Birthday to my love, Mrs. Fantastic!!!! 🙂

  25. Honestly, despite what the models have depicted above,
    I think this 12Z HRRR depiction just may portray the actual outcome. Please note the Northern stream system and the SOuther stream system are distinctly apart from each other with no signs of any active trough linking them.

    Looking over the 500 mb flow, imho, the Northern stream mostly misses to the North and the Southern steam mostly misses to the South only fringing SNE.

    Call me looney, but this looks like a very reasonable solution given the set up. I hope not,,,,,

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020512/048/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020512/048/500wh.conus.png

    1. Next good view of the HRRR with be with the 18Z run which goes out 48 hours. Available around 2:15 to 2:30 or so.

        1. Still, I don’t like what it is showing and I am still most
          interested to see what it looks like with the 18Z run.

    2. I’m not sure if you saw how I responded earlier, but I think they ought to wait for one more suite package prior to hoisting a watch. If the NAM holds serve and there is other model support later today, then I tend to agree. I’m not buying the bigger totals just yet given the progressive nature of this storm, divergence of model data and lack of phasing with the northern energy. I tend to concur with the handling of the 12Z HRRR’s overall evolution over the latest NAM which is typically more amped. I prefer a blend of the short range model and the 12z GFS. Widespread 1-3 with 3 to perhaps isolated 6 inch amounts far southeastern New England. Quite interesting, nonetheless!

      2. I wouldn’t dare make a snow predication at this time.
        We just don’t know enough. It would be silly.

        Looking interesting.

        I think the 10+ inch totals of the 3KM NAM will never
        be realized. the 3-6 inch totals “could” be realized but even that may not happen as we “may” only get fringed.

        TETT (as Dick Albert would say: “Too Early To Tell”)

  26. Sref ensemble mean snow for boston is 3.08 inches with a huge spread with a high member of 12.61 inches and a low member
    of 0.00 inches. Gotta love the uncertaintly of it all.

  28. From Jack Sillan on Twitter if you winder why the NW movement today

    Good morning RAOB watchers!

    12z balloon data is in and there are more promising signs for increased amplification of Sunday’s storm:
    -Higher heights over #AKwx
    -Lower heights in the shortwave over BC

    Both signals correlate negatively with EOF1 representing a weaker low Sunday.

      2. he is a really good and upcoming meteorologist. Heavily involved with tropical activity and works with hurricanetrack.com now. use to work for weathermodels.us

  32. Good job mark for holding your ground on this one . So could Tom & I receive the higher totals out of this vs Boston , what’s pembroke & marshfield looking like

    M

  33. Thank you doc for all of the graphics. They are all taking a middle of the road approach so far. They may end up way LOW or even WAY High. We shall see.

  34. UKMET is cooking and to these eyes it looks to be lining up
    to pass pretty far South of our area. We shall see if the
    upper winds amplify just in the nick of time or not.

  36. and as I thought the guidance continues to waiver but like I said before, was not willing to bite on the out to sea scenario. not that block buster that the euro was once showing but still a light to moderate event.

  37. So far looking at the 12z guidance it is looking like a 3 to 6 event which would be a solid advisory level snowfall.

  38. Quick look but 12z Euro looks the furthest south and east compared to the other 12z runs. All the models are giving us snow.

  39. Shift the axis of snow 50-75 NW and you have your storm. Nantucket isn’t getting 11 inches out of this one. WSW will be issued this afternoon and then take it from there.

  40. This is going to drive the Eurocolytes mad. 75% of whom are snow strumpets. Just 3 days ago Dr. Cohen was betting on the ECMWF and its snow and cold weekend solution for SNE.

    Oh what to do when our algorithmic svengali is not leading us to the answer we want?

      1. A little. It doesn’t say no snow but it is not nearly as robust for most of SNE as other guidance.

        I love a challenging forecast that applies meteorology and climate knowledge, as opposed to a model of choice and its snowfall map. Lord knows I have blown plenty of challenges, but it’s more fun this way. It separates the cheer squad from the science class.

        I don’t root for outcomes (other than daytime sky darkening snow squalls and big diurnal temperature swings) and it makes predicting the weather a lot easier.

        This

    3. I think every run of the Euro has come NW in the last 48 hours. It was near Bermuda at that point. Hard to argue it has modeled this storm well. I’ll be those Euro hugging mets put out a map similar to the 12 z run I posted below though. Actually seems plausible or at least a good starting point.

  42. Whatever model is correct, going to be a sharp drop off NW to SE somewhere with the snow accumulations….

    1. Interesting to see how this is handled. Last event the NWS went all in on the NAM. I think at the very least an advisory needs to be issued by the evening news casts with the caveat it could be more

    2. For south shore we should have something up old salty no ? It’s down this way for the higher amount I believe so

  45. “Oh what to do when our algorithmic svengali is not leading us to the answer we want?” -JMA

    I am thinking of printing this, putting it in a frame, and hanging it up. 😉

    ALL OVER THE NET now I see this method: Let me pick the model that shows what I want to happen and make that my “forecast”, and if none of them show it, I’ll just say they are all wrong and make up the solution I want to happen. I really hate to say this stuff, but I can’t ignore it when it’s 100% TRUE. Ah well, onto actual forecasting now. That’s enough of that for today. 😉

    On another note, I barely missed getting stuck in a bad backup on I-95 on the way home today. Accident happened literally about 100 yards behind me and the backup on both sides is quite large now, just 20 minutes later.

    On yet another note still, if you want to see the results of my latest Covid 19 text, go look at the C-19 chat post.

    1. I choose the one that shows the least amount of snow, print it out, place it in a circle of candles and chant to make it come to fruition. It’s worked every time except October… I blame Salem for that for no particular reason.

      1. You crack me up. 🙂

        Salem was mad because they couldn’t do the usual, so they had to get revenge somehow………….

    2. It’s clearly “Come Together” but it’s such a curious usage of it. (Never heard this TFF song.)

      1. Bingo! This album is absolutely PHENOMENAL.

        “Everybody Loves A Happy Ending” released in 2004.

        And if you’ve never heard their live cover of “Creep” by Radiohead it’s well worth listening to. I’ve seen TFF live twice and both shows are in my top 10 live shows I’ve seen. They co-headlined with Hall & Oates a couple years ago and while H&O were excellent, TFF outperformed them considerably. It was interesting listening to the people while we were walking out of the show, 90% of them having come for Hall & Oates, remarking how good TFF was.

        2. I just overlaid the two tracks and the tempo of the drums are precisely the same. I wonder if they sampled or just recreated it exactly. The song is great and has me curious enough to add it to my albums to listen to track list. I always forget to check in on 80s bands I loved to see how they matured or progressed – this gives me an excuse to add a few more to that list.

          Also funny you mention Radiohead. They stole from The Hollies for the song “Creep” by totally cribbing from “The Air That I Breathe” – they had to sue to get a writing credit. https://youtu.be/7duPNQCp-w4

          1. Exactly. I love The Hollies and that song.

            There are a lot of bands that hit popularity in the late 70s or 80s that were left behind by American radio (sadly, and stupidly, to be perfectly honest).

            Tears for Fears
            Toto
            Level 42
            Joe Jackson
            Thomas Dolby
            Howard Jones

            I could go on and on, but for most of these artists their best music came after their popular radio and/or MTV period.

            1. I think the primary factor on getting left behind is heavily weighted on audience age. MTV and radio haven’t played a hand in popularity for over a decade now and we still see artists getting left behind – so to speak. By and large as we get older we are listening and purchasing music far less than younger audiences. And when we do listen to music we like the comfort of stuff we know. Younger audiences are still exploring what they like and are going to weight music by peers or close to it. They don’t want to venture to music by “old” people. There are few artists who ever break the barrier and tend to be famous beyond their 30’s because of this.

    1. I think the watch for the South Coast is warranted as there is enough guidance agreement to not just toss the possibility in the trash. But this is also a good time for people to refresh themselves on what the definition of a watch is as well. Not necessarily here on this blog but a lot of places I see on social media, many don’t actually know what watches & warnings mean.

      1. So you think up our way will be more or less fringed
        with something like 1-3 or coating to 2 or something like that?

        1. My wife heard 2-4 inches for Boston. I am wide open, but my gut is telling me that the Euro/HRRR combo is more or less what we will see even as much as I would love to see
          the 3KM NAM verify.

      2. I think that is warranted for the south shore & very well could get upgraded as well as your 1-3 for SS may be upgraded for 3-6 ( POSSIBLE)

    2. I’d go a tad lower if I had to put a new map out now (see below for why I’m not changing yet), but those are reasonable and as always so long as they are understood correctly.

  53. The energy just entered the pacific NW this morning. So it’s all still up in the air. I would bring the WSW up north and then either flip to a warning or an advisory based on the final track.

    NAM is overcooked as usual but even if you shave 25% it’s a warning level system.

  54. JPD… To answer above, possibly. The NWS could evaluate this stuff tonight and end up issuing a winter weather advisory in the winter storm watch areas. Right now I have 1-3 down there and see no need to change it until I see 2 more runs (00z & 06z) with consistency & agreement, hence with tomorrow morning’s update.

      1. No, as I stated I haven’t changed my #’s yet, so technically I don’t have anything higher than 3 at the moment (realizing there is potential for more than that). I need to see 2 more sets of guidance before I change anything (00z & 06z). I have not said 3-6 anywhere at this point.

        1. Never said you did I believe in one of my posts I said your 1-3 down here May or may not get changed . I think it’s 3-5 // 3-6 down here

  55. A guy I respect on Twitter and no hype posted this.

    With this kind of warm advection + isentropic upglide forecast, we know how this story ends ~80-90% of the time in the NE US.

    Hint: legit NW trend is probably gonna verify & no this storm isn’t gonna be a miss or just a coastal scraper despite what the globals or ensembles say

  56. Congrats JJ on your 20″ with the 3km NAM!

    The NAM’s are pure eye candy but I don’t see how we could physically accumulate 10-16″ snow in such a short period of time. System is too progressive (starting and ending within 9-10 hours) and it would literally have snow at 2″+/hour for 6+ hours.

    I think 8-10″ is the theoretical capacity of this system in the maximum snow growth area.

  65. Thank you, TK.

    The revolutions per minute model is comical indeed. Some of these models spit out the craziest stuff. Of course, sometimes they’re right.

    The low countries will likely see record-setting snowfall on Sunday as an unusually robust system sweeps up directly from the south and encounters some fresh Arctic air. I think the forecast of 8 inches in parts of the center of the Netherlands is an underestimate. I believe 10-12 inches are possible, especially with the fluff factor. This is quite unusual in the Netherlands. It will be followed by possibly record breaking cold in parts of the country through Friday. No town in the Netherlands will go above freezing through Thursday. Most unusual. Right now, the long-range indicates the cold high retreats and allows an Atlantic low to approach the country by next weekend: Some sleet followed by rain and a return to the usual 40s and gray.

    2. I have a friend in Scotland who has been very excited with some of her snowfall & extreme cold (for them) this winter. Harshest winter in over 3 decades for some of those areas.

      1. We shall see. Once again model divergence. I want to get on board, but I have been burned too many tines before.

        I want to see the Euro come more NW.

        I know the Nams are overcooked, but that gfs is encouraging.

    2. That snowfall output is rather modest for what I would expect from that surface depiction….but that is probably owed to the speed of the system. Nevertheless, it’s overdone still based on my current assessment.

  68. Hadi, I’m sorry I confused you with my `forecast’ of what’s likely to happen in the Netherlands this weekend.

    I can say that in all my years of observing weather a snow day in Boston has never coincided with a snow day in Amsterdam. That may change this weekend.

    TK, indeed, parts of Europe have had the coldest winter in 3 decades. And that was before this next surge of cold. It means business even if it’s relatively short-lived. It’s rare for any town in the Netherlands to see 0F (-18C) in any winter. In fact, it normally doesn’t get below -8C, if that. I do think that -18C is possible in the middle, east, and north of the country, especially with a healthy snow pack. The wind is going to be a factor, not only in the storm on Sunday, but throughout the week as the wind never really dies down. The Dutch provide the wind forecast in Beaufort, and they’re saying that it’ll be between 5 and 7 on the Beaufort scale on Sunday, and remain around 5 all week at times. That’s going to produce some mighty cold wind chill values. Probably colder wind chill than any town has experienced in New England all winter.

    1. I suspect their run of colder winters may be just getting underway as we tank the AMO over the next 25 years. 😉

      1. TK – my quip above was actually a spur of the moment creation as I typed. Custom frame it above your toilet.

        But there is for sure plenty of truth in it.

        I can’t tell you for sure about Sunday, but I except the NW trend to end and the return trend SW with a system that is weaker at its center than currently modeled

        I can’t tell you about 25 years of cold winter Europe, but I think next winter in SNE could be a cold and snow lovers delight, focused on a six week period or so New Years to Valentine’s Day. Margin of error 2-3 years….

        1. LOL! Margin of error 2-3 years… You’re on a roll today, or is that a toilet paper roll? 😉 HAHAHA

  69. I understand that zero meteorology is applied here but from experience, northwest trends typically pan out in this part of the world. I actually think the GFS in terms of snowfall projection is closest to what will most likely occur. Too progressive for a slam job but cannot dismiss these northwest trends overall. Some places will fair better with this storm than last in my opinion.

    1. Yes the south shore again who had a lot of rain this week will get a decent slug of snow & Boston points north & west I believe will definitely get snow but probably more on the lower end of it .

    2. I certainly get what you are saying and greatly respect the amount of common sense and meteorology you apply to your posts. What t is going unmentioned is pac jet energy that dips far south is rarely pulled this far north without northern jet interaction and that doesn’t seem to want to happen. Also virtually ignored by all of the models
      is the subtle trough energy that is going to pass through our area tonight and as it moves out it will have a significant impact on the amount of blocking available.

      I am not saying no snow, but I am saying these 10-20″
      amounts make zero sense and they should immediately alert one to widespread model error. Also there will be a much sharper north and west cutoff than being depicted.

      1. Bingo Bango Bongo & Irving on the model error.

        It’s going to be really difficult to get more than a distant interaction between N energy & S energy on this one…

        HUGE bonus points if anybody can tell me who “Bingo”, “Bango”, “Bongo”, and “Irving” are. Hint: Fictional characters, appeared in one episode of a TV show.

      2. Wow. Coming from you, that means a lot. I don’t have a fraction of the meteorological knowledge that you and TK possess. It’s just a hobby for me:) And I wholeheartedly agree that the huge amounts advertised by several members of the guidance simply cannot be realized under these circumstances even though the northwest trends are difficult to ignore. I always appreciate your thoughtful insight. Thanks JMA.

        1. You are very good Arod . I’m excited because it’s looking like a moderate snow event for Tom & i as we missed out on Monday .

  75. Bingo, Bango, Bongo and Irving are the original (and probably the only) members of The Mosquitoes who opened their 1965 world (three-hour) tour on Gilligan’s Island.

    The Honeybees were the opening act. 🙂

  82. 3km NAM = garbage

    12km NAM is starting to trend in the right direction slightly from its overamped previous run. Should be a little bit more adjustment by that model bringing it close to what happens.

  84. [NWS Tweet
    Sunday Snowstorm Potential] We will be analyzing the latest model guidance overnight in regards to the potential snowstorm on Sunday. There are some indications we may have to increase snow amounts, but will await all the guidance for making adjustments.

      1. Good starting point but they may need to ultimately shift those lines a bit NW and increase everything by an inch. We’ll see what the runs in the morning show.

  91. 00z GFS .. a little bit more reasonable and there should be a bit more of a correction back to the southeast on the 06z.

  92. I like the idea of the “high end” NWS map. The Ritz Carlton map. Delivers a healthy snowfall across much of the region.

    Just 2 days ago this was OTS.

    How things have changed.

    By tomorrow it’ll be an inside runner or a lakes cutter.

    2. JMA mentioned the other day that certain models are better at certain time ranges in I will add that that is also dependent on the type of pattern we are in at the time.

      As I always say when using the guidance in forecasting it is just as important to know what not to believe then it is knowing what to believe. I think I have gotten some of these combined biases figured out. That is why you will see me jump around with the solutions that I think are close. just because I think one model has a good solution on whatever run does not mean I am automatically going with that model on every successive run. I am looking at each set of runs and finding the guidance that I believe is representing what the meteorology says should be going on.

      This is pretty much what JMA mentioned earlier today in his post and I have essentially reworded it.

    1. Yes, I noticed. And, on my back street there aren’t any lights so you really can’t see if you’re walking on ice or not. I just slipped a bit after reparking my car.

      And here’s what’s interesting meteorologically. The temperature in Back Bay is 34.4F. But that’s measured a few feet above the surface. On the surface or ground it’s freezing.

  97. RDPS is backing down as well. I suspect the Euro will come down a little bit as it was already more reasonable anyway.

    1. I think channel 4’s map looks most reasonable though they may need to slide the 4-8 line further south and east. Thoughts?

      2. Ok based on how I feel right now. Take Eric’s map and cut it in half and add 1 inch to the top end after you cut it in half. We’ll see if I still feel that way in the AM.

  100. Not looking so robust anymore. Waiting on 12z runs.

    Most models have backed off, taking center a little more SE.

    We shall see what 12z runs bring.

    Euro still robust as are the 3 stooges, BUT both NAMs are way down as is the Gfs and RDPS and the Hrrr.

    Why can’t TV nets see what our 3 distinguished mets here can see???

    I don’t getit

    NWS snow map is robust, but I think it will be a bust. Hope not, bit let’s be real.

    We shall see.

    1. Those are the model corrections I was referring to last evening. I’m a little (but not totally) surprised the ECMWF is as high as it is still, but I’m still trying to figure out what pocket (if any) it has much value right now in forecasting even in the shorter range. Remains to be determined fully.

      I have found myself agreeing very often this season with the NWS snow map (except maybe the October system at first) but I think they are going to get burned big time on this one. Either that, or I am. 😉

      1. There really isn’t one with very few exceptions and obvious bad solutions when they have snowfall as heavy as they have THAT far NW from a system that is going to be that weak and extremely fast-moving. That red flag is so red it’s magenta. It may have even turned the border color different on my blog lay-out. 😉

    2. GFS & NAM (12km) are nearly identical now for Boston.

      The difference between the 00z & 06z 3km NAM is ASTOUNDING. One of the biggest corrections I have seen a model make in 1 run for snowfall. Basically the higher res models are now heading toward the initial corrects the Global models made, which btw are actually pretty high res themselves these days. Also, the HRRR is even lower than the GFS & NAM at 06z.

  102. Ch. 5 this morning has a practically widespread 6-9” for most including Boston.

    Ch. 4 has 2-4/4-8” but the 4-8 range looks closer to Boston than last evening.

      1. What the ECMWF seems to be doing is creating 2nd area or surface reflection of heavier precipitation just northwest of the center and it’s 1st primary heavy precip zone. That’s what’s keeping the precip amounts up in eastern ma, however it is doing a better job of cutting down precip further north and west. Even still it’s only at about .45 of melted in Boston with 30-32 degree surface temps and critical thickness levels in the 530s. So even if those precip amounts verify, there is not going to be any significant ratios in Boston and to its south based on my interpretation of the 6z ECMWF.

        For the life of me I can’t figure out why the NWS has 5 and 6″ amounts so far N&W

        1. Based on reading their discussion, they couldn’t really tear themselves away from some of those RPM’s & the previous 3km NAM’s and then tried to find a reason they could be right…. That’s just an educated guess on my part. I found it not to really be typical of their reasoning this time around, but obviously they felt strongly enough about it to pump up the snowfall forecast, which I have seen some local media respond to as well. I’m not biting that hook. Like I said above, I may get burned on this, but I can’t find a reason for such widespread 6 inch or greater amounts, especially that far northwest. The fact that 3km NAM made such a big correction between 00z & 06z should have in itself been a big key, and HRRR .. while I don’t love it for snowfall all the time .. kind of supports this lower total argument.

          1. The above was just my thoughts on the ECMWF’s raw output and not my actual forecast.

            I have started to become more familiar with the forecaster names in the NWS Bos discussions and there are.for sure more aggressive names and varying degrees of experience. So again it is a shift’s interpretation of the data and not some overly assured be all of proclamation of the outcome. So no different than any of us, right wrong or middle.

            1. I used to know all the folks. Remember Walt Drag? He was my favorite discussion read of all time. This guy took passion in forecasting to a new level. And a very very nice man. Even after not seeing him for a few years, he came to a SNE Weather Conference and when we crossed paths he remembered my name, and we chatted for a while.

              1. Walt is awesome. He went to Mt Holly and then retired. I actually have saved emails of our conversations from the early and mid 2000s. I would learn so much and we shared many of the same frustrations. He was a runner, turned cyclist and I was a 40 mile per week runner at the time so we should share a lot about outdoors exercise and stress relief.

                1. This is no knock on Walt WHATSOEVER, but once he visited us at the weather lab at Lowell and his hair was kind of all over the place, and in my 20 year old mind I’m thinking: “This guy is the Albert Einstein of the weather world. His hair is a mess, but he’s a genius!” Maybe it was just windy in the parking lot. I never saw his hair that messy again. 😉 He gave us a great talk that day and I am forever grateful to the professors for having him up to talk to us. 🙂

  103. I want to see something from the 12z HRRR which is rolling now. Right after that I’ll be working on my update.

  104. Starting the daay off with a great duscussion. Thanks all.
    Got a good chuckle out of those 3km maps posted. thanks

    I have been hopeful, but I was taking note of the red flag warnings of TK, JMA, and WxWatcher.

    Most interesting.

    Wankum really disappointed me last night. He had 3-6 boston area and NW with 6-9 inches SE. I told my wife it was too high and that it should be replaced with 1-3 and 3-6. Then he went off the deep end and said if it is not phased like it is looking now, the snow will be much less. WTF?????? Huh??????

    1. But….it’s not phasing………. and it may never even phase (like I mentioned yesterday) after it gets by us. The northern energy may get looped back north then west in a large upper low and the southern stream system will just go whizzing on its way trans-Atlantic.

      1. You are making my point!
        I could no believe what Wankum said.
        He is Not one of my favs at all.
        He went down another respect notch last night.

  105. Watching the HRTR 500 mb chart as they come out. It is so clear that there is no phasing. Southern stream does not appear to be amplified enough to bring higher totals up here.

          1. Looking that way, as of hr 30.

            IF, and its a big IF, the low were to come closer, I´m not exactly impressed with the antecedent cold air in place and the SST continue with the large positive anomaly, so, a closer track might introduce a rain/snow discussion in a few areas.

    1. Like 4 times as much snow with this run over the 6Z run!
      Good grief!!!! I can’t imagine what the 33KM NAM will look like!

      1. 🙂 🙂

        I think I´ll just watch the Super Bowl´s 9 hrs of pregame shows, the game itself and then, look out the window and see what happened.

        🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. ha ha ha ha.

          Tomorrow should be fun.

          My wife and I plan to tune into the SB and that would make it our first game of the season. 🙂

          2. My Wife likes Patrick Mahomes as do I.

            I cannot forgive Tom Brady for reasons I cannot post here.

            I hope Mahomes lights it up.

  112. Vegas taking all these bets on the Super Bowl.

    I think they need a line on this system.

    Boston snow. I´ll set the line at 5.9 inches.

    Boston + Plymouth snow at 13.0 inches (over/under)

    PS …. I don´t gamble.

    1. We have been in Vegas for the super bowl a couple of times.
      We were invited to a super bowl party at the MGM Grand.
      That was quite an event as we watched the Pats beat Carolina on HUGE TV Screens. We placed a bet, but lost because the Pats didn’t cover the spread.

      Another time we were at Caesar’s Palace and I placed a $100 bet for my wife. I placed the wrong kind of bet and when the Saints won, she won $500.

      I don’t gamble at all any more. It’s been nearly 10 years
      since I have placed any kind of bet at all. 🙂

  113. Thank you all for the information great discussion. Quick thought should we be looking at where the low is developing and comparing to the model output to get a good sense whether or not they are correct?

    1. Some rather wide variations there. I don’t think ANYONE knows
      what is going to happen tomorrow. An hour ago, I thought I had a decent handle on it. I would have gone with 1-3 in the Boston Area to N&W and a bit farther to the S&E, then S&E of there I would have gone with 3-6.

      Now, I haven’t a clue. I am inclined to go with a general 2-9 inches and let it go at that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

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