Friday February 12 2021 Forecast (7:05AM)

146 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

The pattern is locked in. Very cold air centered on the west central and central US while we are cold here, but more as the air “leaks” into our area. This is how this was expected to evolve, and it has. Also, in this pattern, while you can get significant storm systems that dump a decent amount of precipitation, you don’t tend to get anything resembling “blockbusters”. This will continue to to be the case, with a series of disturbances along the boundary of cold and warmer air associated with the late-arriving and less expansive Southeast ridge will being the watchers for our “weather events”. Recent events have ended up less than their potential (the Tuesday event which produced less than expected, the Thursday event which grazed the South Coast, and today’s non-event, a.k.a. miss to the south. The upcoming system for early Sunday also looks anemic, a minor snow producer at best. But a little shift for today’s update, and something I must note (for model watchers) was picked up first by the Canadian guidance) is that there will be a string-out of energy enough that we’ll probably stay in a fair amount of cloudiness and even have a bit of a precipitation (snow/mix) threat Monday in between the Sunday system and the one with the greatest potential, slated for Tuesday. That final one, keeping in mind it’s forecast day 5, holds the best potential to produce a more significant amount of precipitation. I’ll keep it vague at day 5, as trying to detail anything beyond day 3 is a waste of time.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with occasional snow, except possible mix South Coast. Snow accumulation spotty and under 2 inches. Breaking clouds later. Highs 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix possible. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix evening. Steady snow arriving overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely (early idea favors frozen most of region, greatest rain risk South Coast). Highs 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Dry interlude February 17. Next window of opportunity for unsettled weather later February 18 into February 19, followed by fair weather later in the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

146 thoughts on “Friday February 12 2021 Forecast (7:05AM)”

    1. I have to laugh that my March pattern arrived a full month early. “Long range” forecast ……… haha! Never felt good going for a mild winter with below normal snowfall. Just never felt right. Still did not expect the SE ridge to take forever to show up though. It’s there now. It was there in time for the Bucs boat parade. 😉

      1. So is March expected to be more quiet . When do you see this pattern we are in now break . So it looks like I’ll be here for snow sometime on Sunday & looking like Monday night as well ( possibly Tuesday night as well if Tuesday’s storm produces decent snow.

        1. Well I did not say that March is expected to be more quiet….

          That remains to be seen.

          The pattern we are in now is good for at least 10 to 14 more days.

          1. No you had predicted it was going to be a stormy month . Now saying what you felt strongly about in March is now happening a month early as you said in the blog today . I’m just curious do you feel the same way in regards to the same type of pattern happening in March Thank you .

  2. Hope y’all are paying attention…

    A ridge in the Southeast does NOT automatically translate to a mild pattern in the Northeast. While I have some 30s in my forecast for the WHW forecast area, a good portion of New England will be below 30 for many days to come.

    Another note, there has been some validity to the Canadian model set this winter I know, I usually trash it, and hardly ever look at it, but at least three or four times now it has sniffed out things in the medium range (within a week) that both the GFS & ECMWF did not have. That is worth noting – it’s not a 4-time fluke. Does it mean that suddenly the Canadian model is king? NO. But again it bolsters the argument that you don’t just pick out one model as the leader, because there isn’t a leader. You can have a model that does better for a stretch of time, or in a certain pattern, etc., in a general sense, but if you go into every forecast with the idea that “such-and-such model is better so I’m already leaning toward whatever it has” then you’re taking a step backward before you even start your forecast.

    We’ve seen some good model forecasts, but we’ve seen more than our share of moderate to monumental model errors this winter, even INSIDE 60 & 48 hours, likely for reasons many times mentioned here.

    Fun activity: Say “moderate to monumental model errors” 5 times fast. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    Interested in SSK’s question regarding March. Do you envision this March pattern you were expecting that arrived early staying through March?

    Also, I feel like the Canadian sometimes has had that quality at other times too in the past here and there,

    1. I think overall that model is inferior in the long run but it has the ability, for reasons I don’t know because I am unfamiliar with model programming, to sniff out certain things that the other global models miss. I have not seen enough of it to have a confident list in the things it can find but I have taken note of this for future reference.

      As far as March, see my answer above. 🙂

  4. Thanks TK!

    TK – I am going to have a time getting used to the idea that Boston’s average snowfall is now nearly 50 inches (48.7).

    Will that reflect in the NWS climo stats at the official end of this snow season, or the following?

    1. This one onward.
      Back in November my forecast of 45 to 50 inches of snow for Boston and using the term near to slightly above normal was taking this into account .. i.e. alot of folks still referring to the old average while taking into account the new.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Was it Tom who mentioned a possible and perhaps significant icing event in the southern part of the country? I’m hearing some talk of this potential. I wondered what thoughts are for it from the folks here. I am thinking the potential TK mentioned for Tuesday would be part of that.

    2. The odds increase in this pattern. It is certainly on the table as part of what happens on Tuesday, and the system that threatens after that.

  7. 12Z NAM coming into range for the 16th system.
    I know it is the NAM at 84 hours, but NOT looking good.

    Surface at 84 hours

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021212/084/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Note the 540 line

    850 mb

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021212/084/850th.conus.png

    925 mb

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021212/084/925th.conus.png

    500 mb

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021212/084/500wh.conus.png

    This looks like brief Snow to sleet to rain with the center
    passing West of us.

    Waiting on rest of 12Z suite

        1. Of course. I liked that run. Looks quite a bit different from the NAM. But the NAM is NOT in its wheel house yet, so who knows.

  8. The South is in for some nasty winter weather with the developing weekend storm (our Tuesday storm) and the storm early next week (our Friday storm). Look at how far south the winter storm watches and wind chill warnings extend into Texas and the entire state of Oklahoma…

    https://www.weather.gov/

    Not too often you see Dallas under a WSW for 3-7″ of snow, near blizzard conditions and wind chills to -15F. This week and next week will be an impressive stretch of winter weather for them. It’s a much bigger deal for them down there than it is here as they just aren’t prepared (as evidenced by that horrific pileup in Fort Worth yesterday).

    1. I saw that and was encouraged. Plenty of action ahead of us, we just don’t know whether it will be all snow, or snow to mix events.

  13. 6z EPS holds the cold at the surface for Tuesday but has the low track farther north and floods the warm air in at the mid levels. That solution would be a sleet/frz rain fest for most of us.

    1. I am NOT liking the latest trends here. Not in the least.
      I think maybe the SE ride has ingested a ton of Spinach!!!
      And is really flexing it’s muscle!

  16. 12Z GFS !@(&#*&!@(*#^*(&!@^#(!^@(#*&!@(*#&

    Sleet to snow to sleet.

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021212/105/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Surface with p-type

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021212/093/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021212/096/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021212/099/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    For a period, this depicts some pretty heavy sleet and also some pretty heavy snow. Looks to be ALL Frozen, at lest.

  18. Thanks, TK!

    Less than three hours to the start of February school break! Woo-Hoo!

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MOM!!!!!! 🙂

    WHW’s biggest fan!

    Love you, MOM!!!!! 🙂

      1. There will be nothing virtual about the bottle of wine that’s waiting for me when I get home today! 🙂

  19. One thing I am confident of, with that cold high to the north and a low track south of us, you are going see surface temps remain below freezing in most areas for this storm. We may flood the mid levels with warmer air for a time but that is going to spell a period of frozen precip. I don’t see plain rain with this, except maybe the south coast.

    Hopefully we can pull out a longer period of accumulating snow up front. That latest GFS was almost all sleet/ice and no snow in CT.

  20. Can already see hints of future mix fest unfolding ……

    Temps: New surge of cold, dry air in the low levels in New England, but Mt Washington is up to 12F. There´s about a 5F temp difference btwn the surface in southern New England and the summit of Mt Washington.

    500 mb flow: If you just looked at a satellite loop, one might think the east coast would be 10F above average to the Canadian Border as it looks like a decent east coast ridge.

    A very impressive arctic airmass is heavy and is able to move into New England in the low levels, but the upper flow is going to promote mild air at the mid levels.

  23. 12Z GFS for the 18th and 19th is similar to the 16th except farther North and West, so LESS snow and sleet and more rain.

    )@*(#&*!@&#(*&!(@*#&(*!@^#$&*^!@&*#$^&*!@^#$&*^!@*&$^!&*@^$*&!^@*$&^*&$^*&!^@$*&^@*&$^&*^@$*&!^@&*$^!&*^*&!@^$

  26. If I had to make an early guess on these low pressure areas, strung out, passing SE of the south coast, warm enough at mid levels to push snow into northern New England.

    Possible multiple event, impactful ice central and southern New England. Immediate coastline always a wild card for ice, dependent on exact low level wind direction.

    Lows going overhead or to our west, I can’t buy at this time.

  27. I believe that yesterday (or perhaps the day before) TK said this pattern would yield misses, grazes, and COLD systems. Hopefully this NW trend for Tuesday reverses as it gets closer.

          1. Sometimes, but of course NOT always, the UKMET gives a hint of how the Euro will go. We’ll know very soon as the Euro is out to 60 hours.

  34. Still remains frozen I-84 corridor and Mass Pike corridor N and W. Let’s see what the ensembles say as this is still 3 days away (which is an eternity the way the models have been performing).

    1. Yes, the Euro and GFS are light years away on that system. Storm track stays to our SE and is much colder than what the GFS is showing.

  36. I’m not buying anything on the Tuesday storm in terms of precip type until after this small disturbance passes through Saturday night.

  37. Should have done an over/under bet in October on when Dave would make his first rant giving up on winter and requesting the onset of Spring.

    February 12 is actually quite late in the game. I probably would have lost.

    2. ha ha
      I just can’t stand this kind of set up in Winter. I hate it, hate it, hate it!!!!091&(!*)@&#$*(!&@($*&!(#)$*@)@_#&$()*@&#$(*&!(*@&$*(!&$()&_!*$&!_*(@&*($&*($&!*(&@$*(!&(*@$&!@*(&@$*

      Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

  38. Thanks TK!
    I agree Dr. S, each storm will have an effect on the next one in line especially when they are so close together. If the timing of one changes that will cause a chain reaction in the flow. Lots of moving parts and back and forth model runs. The way things look now I could see a decent freezing rain setup with some cold air damming in my area in south central mass – northern ct for the Tuesday system.

    1. It’s just that this next one is a wimporama that won’t have much if any effect. If you like snow, I looks like we are cooked, but Stranger things have happened, so stay tuned.

  40. PM ideas…

    Monday’s disturbance will be key in setting up a colder solution than today’s 12z guidance has for Tuesday’s system.

    Today’s GFS is a little bit closer to what will happen with the threat around next Thursday. Correction underway – will take a handful more runs to get there.

    As I said yesterday, it’s highly unlikely that any main lows track north of this area until the last week of February.

    The upcoming stretch has the potential to be Boston’s snowiest of the winter (2 or possibly 3 events).

    6. What’s this Monday talk , what’s happening Monday . Confusing here talking about 3 different storms at once .

      1. A period of light mixed precip is likely Monday with a weak disturbance moving through before the main storm on Tuesday.

  42. Thank you, TK.

    This has been and continues to be my favorite stretch of this winter. I’m grateful for all the winter I can get. Days like today are precious in my book: Subfreezing all day, a healthy snowpack (even in the city), the crunch of ice and snow as I walk around outside, not an insect around (I really detest bugs – I’m sorry for any of you who are entomophiles), easy breathing weather (unlike mid-summer), and minimal sweating when I run.

  43. Skating is something the Dutch love, but often can’t do on natural ice, because winters just haven’t been cold enough in recent years. Thankfully, this February has been different. Though next week all the ice will melt away, at least they had a week to 10 days of real winter. Here’s a video of the Dutch skating on lakes in the middle of the country. Most of Holland is beneath sea level. So, when dredging you have to create areas where the water can go – canals and large man-made lakes. https://nos.nl/video/2368453-schaatsers-genieten-op-de-loosdrechtse-plassen-dit-is-fantastisch.html

  44. The 18Z GFS listened to TK.

    Here is it’s version of the Monday system.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021218/072/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    And now the next System is more South. Enough for all snow, not, but enough to keep most of the rain out.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021218/090/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021218/093/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    24 hour Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021218/102/snku_024h.us_ne.png

    So, I guess there may be hope yet.

  46. Pete has mostly rain for the Friday system with temps near 50. Even Waunkum is leaning towards a “warmer” solution (Euro) for the Tuesday event…Quick snow to rain.

          1. Come on guys he’s a good met & he’s a great guy from what I here . He lives down here in scituate.

    3. Hmmm…
      If I had to put a high temp forecast on Boston for next Friday I’ll give them a 31.

      Somebody please write that down. 😉

  47. NWS not biting on the warmer solutions from today either–playing things middle of the road in their write up this evening.

  48. No chance 50 verifies anywhere in SNE for Friday except maybe ACK.

    The meteorologists here in CT are handling it pretty well and have low to mid 30’s for highs in Hartford Mon-Fri next week, including the duration of both storms.

    1. Those eastern solutions are all pretty weak actually. While colder, they probably wouldn’t be big snow events. The stronger amped solutions are all cutters/inside runners.

  52. Just got to DC. Light snow and supposed to change to slopporama.

    Three day stint visiting three of our four college kids. Start DC, Philly Sunday and NYC Monday.

    Looks like the weather might be in our heels I don’t know.

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