What was quite apparent from the emerging crisis in India two months ago, has now been proven. The B.1617.2 (Delta) variant that was first identified in India is both significantly more transmissible and significantly more severe. It’s also impacting a much younger population. https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1400486742914895876
Vicki, you had mentioned the severity of the P.1 variant (first identified in Brazil) for babies and pregnant women, well, the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant is equally severe for these groups.
I’m stunned quite frankly at the virus’s ability to mutate this quickly and efficiently (from the virus’s perspective) into something that is more transmissible and more lethal. With the world still having over 500,000 new cases every day, I fear that with each new variant that arises from such tremendous spread, one or more will evade vaccines, even the mRNA vaccines. Of course, scientists will be working on updating the vaccine, but this could become a long-term battle with no guarantee of success.
Vicki, it is good news that the U.S. is actively involved in donating vaccine doses.
I do hope Charlie Baker and others are paying attention. But I doubt it very much.
Keep in mind the U.K. is better vaccinated than we are. Yet, it is now seeing exponential growth in cases, with a significant rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, it’s confirmed that not only is the `Indian’ variant or B.1.617.2 (now called Delta) dominant, it makes up a staggering 79% of cases already. The virus `knows’ how to rapidly produce ever more successful variants: More transmissible and more lethal. Quite the combination. And in blitzkrieg fashion the new variants totally outcompete all other variants that don’t share similarly successful features.
Perhaps the saving grace in the U.S. is the fact that the vast majority of folks here have been vaccinated with the mRNA vaccines. Although the efficacy diminishes a little with the `Indian’ variant it’s not yet alarming (though it does diminish A LOT with only 1 dose; and more than 10 million Americans are skipping 2nd doses). But that’s not exactly comforting, given that mutant versions are being produced all the time, and one or more could evade the mRNA vaccines, too.
Omg Joshua. I have serious doubts that our leaders are watching as closely as is needed. Otherwise, why would we be reopening absolutely everything.
I think I’m reading correctly when you said the UK is better vaccinated than the US. But a saving grace for us is that we are well vaccinated, I forget. Is the UK vaccine the AZ and not an mRNA?
I should have had a paragraph after Joshua. That reaction was to the number in 24 hours and not in response to baker, etc.
Vicki, the UK’s workhorse vaccine has been Astra Zeneca, which shares a lot in common with J&J. It’s not as efficacious as the mRNA vaccines, but it’s still a very good vaccine. The U.K. also uses Pfizer, and recently approved the J&J jab. I think they’ve also used some Moderna, but I could be wrong about this. When I say “efficient vaccination campaign” I’m referring to the fact that they’ve made sure that as they go down the age ladder in terms of prioritization each age group is more than 90% vaccinated.
We need to pay attention to whether cases are decoupled from hospitalizations and deaths. If that is the case, then we needn’t worry about what’s happening in Britain. But, it’s clear there hasn’t been a decoupling, at least not yet. In Britain, hospitalizations are up more than 20% in one week (and were up the week before by the same percentage); deaths are rising, too. We also know that there is a lag. Among the hospitalized in Britain nearly 10%(!) are fully vaccinated, and another ~30% are partially vaccinated.
While ALL the vaccines to varying degrees still work against the now dominant Delta variant in the UK, they’ve lost A LOT of efficacy for those who’ve only had 1 dose and lost a small amount of efficacy for those who’ve had 2 doses; even the mRNA vaccines. Perhaps the saving grace in the U.S. is the fact that most people have been vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. But even so, millions in the U.S. are skipping 2nd doses, many millions more are still unvaccinated, and if the U.S. continues to base its policy merely on hope (namely, mRNA vaccines will ward off all variants) that’s just not a sound policy. Hoping and praying is what we do in church, not what we do as policymakers or those in charge of governing.
Thanks Joshua. I don’t know what the breakdown in the US is among JJ, moderna and pfeizer
I don’t either. But I believe at least 80% is Pfizer and Moderna.
At TD Garden, masks no longer required for those fully vaccinated.
Portugal is on now on UK’s amber list, as it’s seeing a spike. It was on the green list. Portugal had been doing very well recently, with daily caseload in the low hundreds and sometimes under 100. Shows you how quickly things can turn. It must be variant-related, as Portugal is one of Europe’s most vaccinated nations.
For a breakdown of the UK travel rules and the various lists they employ, his article is helpful. It also makes me think I should have gone to Britain last October. It would have been easier than it is today, in spite of my now being fully vaccinated. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57346888?
I think (and hope) that the controversial decision to follow the dosing schedule according to the label and not spread it out over months (as the UK and Europe have done) will work in our favor. That is, for vaccinated folks it’s crucial they have both doses to have adequate protection. 1 dose just isn’t nearly enough. Fauci and others argued vigorously in favor of keeping the dosing schedule of 3 or 4 weeks between doses, and not spacing it out over months. I think that was the right decision.
C-19 for 6-4 is ready.
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Good news
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/03/us-donate-covid19-vaccine-global-2021-491748
What was quite apparent from the emerging crisis in India two months ago, has now been proven. The B.1617.2 (Delta) variant that was first identified in India is both significantly more transmissible and significantly more severe. It’s also impacting a much younger population. https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1400486742914895876
Vicki, you had mentioned the severity of the P.1 variant (first identified in Brazil) for babies and pregnant women, well, the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant is equally severe for these groups.
I’m stunned quite frankly at the virus’s ability to mutate this quickly and efficiently (from the virus’s perspective) into something that is more transmissible and more lethal. With the world still having over 500,000 new cases every day, I fear that with each new variant that arises from such tremendous spread, one or more will evade vaccines, even the mRNA vaccines. Of course, scientists will be working on updating the vaccine, but this could become a long-term battle with no guarantee of success.
Vicki, it is good news that the U.S. is actively involved in donating vaccine doses.
The worst news of the day by far: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-5274-new-coronavirus-cases-and-18-further-deaths-12324088?
I do hope Charlie Baker and others are paying attention. But I doubt it very much.
Keep in mind the U.K. is better vaccinated than we are. Yet, it is now seeing exponential growth in cases, with a significant rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, it’s confirmed that not only is the `Indian’ variant or B.1.617.2 (now called Delta) dominant, it makes up a staggering 79% of cases already. The virus `knows’ how to rapidly produce ever more successful variants: More transmissible and more lethal. Quite the combination. And in blitzkrieg fashion the new variants totally outcompete all other variants that don’t share similarly successful features.
Perhaps the saving grace in the U.S. is the fact that the vast majority of folks here have been vaccinated with the mRNA vaccines. Although the efficacy diminishes a little with the `Indian’ variant it’s not yet alarming (though it does diminish A LOT with only 1 dose; and more than 10 million Americans are skipping 2nd doses). But that’s not exactly comforting, given that mutant versions are being produced all the time, and one or more could evade the mRNA vaccines, too.
Omg Joshua. I have serious doubts that our leaders are watching as closely as is needed. Otherwise, why would we be reopening absolutely everything.
I think I’m reading correctly when you said the UK is better vaccinated than the US. But a saving grace for us is that we are well vaccinated, I forget. Is the UK vaccine the AZ and not an mRNA?
I should have had a paragraph after Joshua. That reaction was to the number in 24 hours and not in response to baker, etc.
Vicki, the UK’s workhorse vaccine has been Astra Zeneca, which shares a lot in common with J&J. It’s not as efficacious as the mRNA vaccines, but it’s still a very good vaccine. The U.K. also uses Pfizer, and recently approved the J&J jab. I think they’ve also used some Moderna, but I could be wrong about this. When I say “efficient vaccination campaign” I’m referring to the fact that they’ve made sure that as they go down the age ladder in terms of prioritization each age group is more than 90% vaccinated.
We need to pay attention to whether cases are decoupled from hospitalizations and deaths. If that is the case, then we needn’t worry about what’s happening in Britain. But, it’s clear there hasn’t been a decoupling, at least not yet. In Britain, hospitalizations are up more than 20% in one week (and were up the week before by the same percentage); deaths are rising, too. We also know that there is a lag. Among the hospitalized in Britain nearly 10%(!) are fully vaccinated, and another ~30% are partially vaccinated.
While ALL the vaccines to varying degrees still work against the now dominant Delta variant in the UK, they’ve lost A LOT of efficacy for those who’ve only had 1 dose and lost a small amount of efficacy for those who’ve had 2 doses; even the mRNA vaccines. Perhaps the saving grace in the U.S. is the fact that most people have been vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. But even so, millions in the U.S. are skipping 2nd doses, many millions more are still unvaccinated, and if the U.S. continues to base its policy merely on hope (namely, mRNA vaccines will ward off all variants) that’s just not a sound policy. Hoping and praying is what we do in church, not what we do as policymakers or those in charge of governing.
Thanks Joshua. I don’t know what the breakdown in the US is among JJ, moderna and pfeizer
I don’t either. But I believe at least 80% is Pfizer and Moderna.
At TD Garden, masks no longer required for those fully vaccinated.
Is that the same for Fenway?
And Gillette?
My guess is yes.
Kinshasa – capital of Democratic Republic of Congo – sees exponential rise in Covid-19 cases. Likely the South Africa variant, which evades the AZ and J&J vaccines, and probably evades the Chinese and Russian vaccines, too. Africa is going to experience a major outbreak. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/exponential-rise-in-covid-cases-in-drc-capital-reports-who
Portugal is on now on UK’s amber list, as it’s seeing a spike. It was on the green list. Portugal had been doing very well recently, with daily caseload in the low hundreds and sometimes under 100. Shows you how quickly things can turn. It must be variant-related, as Portugal is one of Europe’s most vaccinated nations.
For a breakdown of the UK travel rules and the various lists they employ, his article is helpful. It also makes me think I should have gone to Britain last October. It would have been easier than it is today, in spite of my now being fully vaccinated. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57346888?
I think (and hope) that the controversial decision to follow the dosing schedule according to the label and not spread it out over months (as the UK and Europe have done) will work in our favor. That is, for vaccinated folks it’s crucial they have both doses to have adequate protection. 1 dose just isn’t nearly enough. Fauci and others argued vigorously in favor of keeping the dosing schedule of 3 or 4 weeks between doses, and not spacing it out over months. I think that was the right decision.
C-19 for 6-4 is ready.