From the Times of Israel: The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine appears to largely prevent hospitalizations and severe disease, but is significantly less effective against preventing the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.
The Delta variant has reduced the vaccine’s efficacy against severe disease from 98.2% to 93%. This is still quite good, but a 5% drop in just 6 weeks is considerable. Also, critically ill cases in Israel have increased from 24 to 35 in the past week, 40% of the severe cases are fully vaccinated.
To show just how evasive the coronavirus is becoming, the Health Ministry data show that 2-doses of Pfizer vaccine is now just 64% effective in preventing Covid-19 infection. It was 94% effective in May.
This is a stealth virus that’s extraordinarily adaptive, and appears to already be `planning’ its next move, as the Delta “plus” variant shows.
It’s all the anti-vaxxers fault. It sounds like they are indirectly lowering the potency of the vaccines while strengthening the virus.
I believe it’s time for employers to seriously consider mandating vaccines for their employees as terms of employment. Hopefully courts will favor the employers on this. The entire human race may be at stake.
UK wave continues. The good news is there is a degree of decoupling of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The bad news is that hospitalizations are still up 47% in 1 week. This includes >50 additional ICU cases.
PM Johnson says he intends to lift most restrictions on July 19th. But we’ve been here before, and he’s said this before. I think the data will dictate what happens on the 19th more than what the PM wants to do. I suspect that no matter what happens the international travel restrictions will remain in place indefinitely.
EU is back into positive case growth territory, fueled by Delta. Hospitalizations, as a lagging indicator, are increasing slowly in a number of countries.
Overall, globally, the situation remains grim.
Not to mention that the MA positivity rate continues to tick back up every day again. At last check it is now at 0.38%. Who knows how high it will be after this weekend?
It’s becoming abundantly clear from UK and Israeli data that the Delta variant can evade vaccines – even the very best ones like Pfizer and Moderna – to cause breakthrough infections. These are mostly mild or even asymptomatic. But that doesn’t make them less problematic, because these infections keep the ball rolling, so to speak.
I think the latest Israeli data is the tip of the iceberg. I believe in coming days and weeks we’ll find out a lot more that CDC is NOT telling us. Breakthrough infections are much more common than we’ve been led to believe. And while it is true that the vaccines are still very effective (93%) at preventing severe illness, this does NOT mean that the person with a breakthrough infection – even if asymptomatic – can’t transmit to other much more vulnerable folks. This is my concern at this stage. The virus is on a mission to survive, and we’re simply conduits in its quest to survive when we ignore the fact the fully vaccinated people can be vectors. To reiterate, fully vaccinated folks are well protected, but they can contract the virus (more readily than CDC admits) and then pass it on to others.
Philip, there are between 18 and 20 million who have skipped their 2nd dose. nationwide. Some, of course, may still get their 2nd dose but millions will not.
On vaccine efficacy CDC should be leveling with us with a nuanced message. Vaccines certainly work, but until the caseload is MUCH lower, or a MUCH higher percentage of people are fully vaccinated we’ve got to keep our guard up. The Biden Administration needs to pay attention.
Delta is a different animal altogether. It’s successfully breaching the defenses. UK data already showed a reduction in efficacy from 94% to 80% for Pfizer. Israel is showing a further decrease. Most of the time contracting the virus does NOT then make a fully vaccinated person severely ill. But, the damage is already done. The transmission chain is extended, which is the virus’s ultimate purpose. Surely fully vaccinated folks who contracted the virus and came down with mild or severe illness can transmit. And, as we know from previous variants, asymptomatic persons can transmit, too, though they’re less likely to do so. https://twitter.com/johnpavlovitz/status/1412169747865620481
Thanks Joshua. The worry is children also
C-19 for 7-6 is ready.
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From the Times of Israel: The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine appears to largely prevent hospitalizations and severe disease, but is significantly less effective against preventing the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.
The Delta variant has reduced the vaccine’s efficacy against severe disease from 98.2% to 93%. This is still quite good, but a 5% drop in just 6 weeks is considerable. Also, critically ill cases in Israel have increased from 24 to 35 in the past week, 40% of the severe cases are fully vaccinated.
To show just how evasive the coronavirus is becoming, the Health Ministry data show that 2-doses of Pfizer vaccine is now just 64% effective in preventing Covid-19 infection. It was 94% effective in May.
This is a stealth virus that’s extraordinarily adaptive, and appears to already be `planning’ its next move, as the Delta “plus” variant shows.
It’s all the anti-vaxxers fault. It sounds like they are indirectly lowering the potency of the vaccines while strengthening the virus.
I believe it’s time for employers to seriously consider mandating vaccines for their employees as terms of employment. Hopefully courts will favor the employers on this. The entire human race may be at stake.
UK wave continues. The good news is there is a degree of decoupling of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The bad news is that hospitalizations are still up 47% in 1 week. This includes >50 additional ICU cases.
PM Johnson says he intends to lift most restrictions on July 19th. But we’ve been here before, and he’s said this before. I think the data will dictate what happens on the 19th more than what the PM wants to do. I suspect that no matter what happens the international travel restrictions will remain in place indefinitely.
EU is back into positive case growth territory, fueled by Delta. Hospitalizations, as a lagging indicator, are increasing slowly in a number of countries.
Overall, globally, the situation remains grim.
Not to mention that the MA positivity rate continues to tick back up every day again. At last check it is now at 0.38%. Who knows how high it will be after this weekend?
It’s becoming abundantly clear from UK and Israeli data that the Delta variant can evade vaccines – even the very best ones like Pfizer and Moderna – to cause breakthrough infections. These are mostly mild or even asymptomatic. But that doesn’t make them less problematic, because these infections keep the ball rolling, so to speak.
I think the latest Israeli data is the tip of the iceberg. I believe in coming days and weeks we’ll find out a lot more that CDC is NOT telling us. Breakthrough infections are much more common than we’ve been led to believe. And while it is true that the vaccines are still very effective (93%) at preventing severe illness, this does NOT mean that the person with a breakthrough infection – even if asymptomatic – can’t transmit to other much more vulnerable folks. This is my concern at this stage. The virus is on a mission to survive, and we’re simply conduits in its quest to survive when we ignore the fact the fully vaccinated people can be vectors. To reiterate, fully vaccinated folks are well protected, but they can contract the virus (more readily than CDC admits) and then pass it on to others.
There’s a constant drumbeat of these messages, which CDC is ignoring. https://twitter.com/scopedbylarry/status/1412103540458201112
I just heard on the National evening news that 1,000,000+ Texas residents are overdue on their 2nd vaccine dose.
Joshua, how does THAT happen????
Biden is apparently becoming worried about Delta
I feel as if VT has stood as a shining example the rest of the country can follow….including the president
https://twitter.com/necn/status/1412215113948536833?s=21
Philip, there are between 18 and 20 million who have skipped their 2nd dose. nationwide. Some, of course, may still get their 2nd dose but millions will not.
On vaccine efficacy CDC should be leveling with us with a nuanced message. Vaccines certainly work, but until the caseload is MUCH lower, or a MUCH higher percentage of people are fully vaccinated we’ve got to keep our guard up. The Biden Administration needs to pay attention.
Delta is a different animal altogether. It’s successfully breaching the defenses. UK data already showed a reduction in efficacy from 94% to 80% for Pfizer. Israel is showing a further decrease. Most of the time contracting the virus does NOT then make a fully vaccinated person severely ill. But, the damage is already done. The transmission chain is extended, which is the virus’s ultimate purpose. Surely fully vaccinated folks who contracted the virus and came down with mild or severe illness can transmit. And, as we know from previous variants, asymptomatic persons can transmit, too, though they’re less likely to do so. https://twitter.com/johnpavlovitz/status/1412169747865620481
Thanks Joshua. The worry is children also
C-19 for 7-6 is ready.