U.S. to cross 30,000 cases nationwide today. That’s my prediction based on the trend. The rise in cases AND hospitalizations is faster than I expected. A deluge is coming to the low vaccination areas. I even expect highly vaccinated states to see a considerable increase. Say goodbye to seasonality, at least for this virus. It doesn’t `play by the rules.’
U.K. is now at ~42,000 cases a day; ~500 new hospital admissions every day; ~50 deaths. Spain’s numbers are now exponential. I fully expect the other EU countries to follow in short order.
Global deaths are still in the 6k to 9k range every single day. Relentless, and not trending downward anymore.
As I said before, I think the herd immunity talk – which I contributed to, by the way, because I was hoping we’d reach it – is truly out the door with this virus. Even in areas with very high percentages of fully vaccinated and naturally immune folks (due to past infections) we don’t get to herd immunity. Unbelievable.
So where do we now go from here Joshua? Boosters?…Back to 2020?…A new, more powerful vaccine TBD?
Good for Colorado to not give in on gathering limits.
Philip, we’re not going back to 2020. We do have powerful vaccines and quite high vaccination rates. Even when they lose efficacy, they’re still very good. Boosters will indeed be needed, I think.
Problem is we’re also not yet going back to 2019. We’re very much stuck in a difficult place. Perhaps a metaphor might help: Wildfires. Last year and even early this year the nation’s Covid-19 crisis was analogous to widespread, out-of-control wildfires, which were very hard to put out. Now the Covid-19 crisis consists of numerous – but not as widespread and less out-of-control – wildfires, which are still hard to put out.
While I very much respect Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He has made two grievous errors during this pandemic. The first is forgivable. The second is not. The first was when he said on multiple occasions in late May and early June 2020 that we’d see a “breather or respite,” a “pause” in the epidemic during the summer. We did not, at least not in the Sunbelt states and some other states, too. This is forgivable in that many experts assumed seasonality. The second was when he repeated the same error in early June of this year, essentially saying the epidemic would be “winding down this summer,” “not be widespread,” and “confined to a few hot spots.” Well, that’s not accurate, and this error is not forgivable. There are now dozens and dozens of hot spots in the U.S., and even highly vaccinated states like California are getting hit once again. Mitigated because many are vaccinated? Yes, thankfully. But the crisis is not winding down this summer.
Well, maybe Dr. Gottlieb was counting on high vaccination rates this summer? Of course I have no idea what his theory was as I assume he had one to back up his opinion.
Can we at least get back to 2019 sometime in 2022? Of course I was looking forward to seeing huge crowds in Times Square (NYC) celebrating New Year 2022 (12/31/2021) much like 2020 (12/31/2019). Oh well.
I guess that’s out of the question now? 🙁
He’s too smart not to know that many areas of the country would remain very vulnerable. Also, he’s too smart to ignore that even highly vaccinated countries (Israel, UK, Portugal) and states in the U.S. (eg, California right now) are experiencing surges. He sits on the board at Pfizer, so perhaps this muzzles him a bit. [You don’t want to admit that the vaccines are NOT a magic bullet; they’re a very important tool in the arsenal]. Here’s where I just wish people would be brutally honest: The vaccines do work, but they’re not perfect. We still need to mitigate, at least somewhat. Not close or lock down, but mitigate to prevent further worsening of outbreaks. So, yes, in public indoor spaces masks should be required. Public indoor spaces should have certain crowd limits. Even distancing should be encouraged in public spaces. Packed indoor events is just not a good idea right now, unless you know that everyone is vaccinated. But you don’t. And in the U.S. without any kind of proof of vaccination or negative test system that would allow entry to events ONLY to fully vaccinated or those who test negative, we’re left with a honor system that’s deeply flawed. We had a chance last summer to beat back the virus and didn’t. We had a similar chance this summer to beat back the virus and didn’t. By beating back I don’t mean eradicate. But I do mean suppress. Right now we’re like a very leaky boat with holes in it, which we could have patched up but failed to. The boat is still floating, sort of, but we have to bale water nearly continuously. Not a good way to handle an infectious disease pandemic.
Last summer there were Trump rallies and BLM protests. Looking back, I’m not all that certain those events made that much of a difference either way regarding Covid.
Outdoor protests and rallies didn’t contribute much. Indoor rallies and events did. That’s a theme throughout the pandemic, which is why I do think Times Square will have lots of people on December 31, 2021. And, we’ll have many more outdoor events than last year, including the marathon, regatta, football games with fans, and autumn fairs. It’s not as bleak as last year. I hope I’m not leaving the impression that it is as bleak as last year. It’s just still a very difficult period, and the virus is quite challenging.
U.S. now at >35k for the day, hospitalizations (and ICU usage) increasing steadily, too. Not so much in the Northeast, so that’s good. But, the Delta-fueled outbreak has expanded from Florida to California, and now includes all mountain states and a few states in the middle of the country. Hard to believe, but yet again we’re in exponential growth territory, much like Israel, the UK, Portugal, Spain. This virus is something else. Good lord.
Good Lord sums it up.
Joshua, any on how Hawaii is doing ?
Found Hawaii. They are doing all right. Wonder if they will close borders again
Did I miss this. Or maybe just blocked out because it is insanity?
U.S. to cross 30,000 cases nationwide today. That’s my prediction based on the trend. The rise in cases AND hospitalizations is faster than I expected. A deluge is coming to the low vaccination areas. I even expect highly vaccinated states to see a considerable increase. Say goodbye to seasonality, at least for this virus. It doesn’t `play by the rules.’
U.K. is now at ~42,000 cases a day; ~500 new hospital admissions every day; ~50 deaths. Spain’s numbers are now exponential. I fully expect the other EU countries to follow in short order.
Global deaths are still in the 6k to 9k range every single day. Relentless, and not trending downward anymore.
As I said before, I think the herd immunity talk – which I contributed to, by the way, because I was hoping we’d reach it – is truly out the door with this virus. Even in areas with very high percentages of fully vaccinated and naturally immune folks (due to past infections) we don’t get to herd immunity. Unbelievable.
So where do we now go from here Joshua? Boosters?…Back to 2020?…A new, more powerful vaccine TBD?
Good for Colorado to not give in on gathering limits.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/2021-seven-peaks-festival-canceled-colorado-delta-1195281/
Philip, we’re not going back to 2020. We do have powerful vaccines and quite high vaccination rates. Even when they lose efficacy, they’re still very good. Boosters will indeed be needed, I think.
Problem is we’re also not yet going back to 2019. We’re very much stuck in a difficult place. Perhaps a metaphor might help: Wildfires. Last year and even early this year the nation’s Covid-19 crisis was analogous to widespread, out-of-control wildfires, which were very hard to put out. Now the Covid-19 crisis consists of numerous – but not as widespread and less out-of-control – wildfires, which are still hard to put out.
While I very much respect Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He has made two grievous errors during this pandemic. The first is forgivable. The second is not. The first was when he said on multiple occasions in late May and early June 2020 that we’d see a “breather or respite,” a “pause” in the epidemic during the summer. We did not, at least not in the Sunbelt states and some other states, too. This is forgivable in that many experts assumed seasonality. The second was when he repeated the same error in early June of this year, essentially saying the epidemic would be “winding down this summer,” “not be widespread,” and “confined to a few hot spots.” Well, that’s not accurate, and this error is not forgivable. There are now dozens and dozens of hot spots in the U.S., and even highly vaccinated states like California are getting hit once again. Mitigated because many are vaccinated? Yes, thankfully. But the crisis is not winding down this summer.
Well, maybe Dr. Gottlieb was counting on high vaccination rates this summer? Of course I have no idea what his theory was as I assume he had one to back up his opinion.
Can we at least get back to 2019 sometime in 2022? Of course I was looking forward to seeing huge crowds in Times Square (NYC) celebrating New Year 2022 (12/31/2021) much like 2020 (12/31/2019). Oh well.
I guess that’s out of the question now? 🙁
He’s too smart not to know that many areas of the country would remain very vulnerable. Also, he’s too smart to ignore that even highly vaccinated countries (Israel, UK, Portugal) and states in the U.S. (eg, California right now) are experiencing surges. He sits on the board at Pfizer, so perhaps this muzzles him a bit. [You don’t want to admit that the vaccines are NOT a magic bullet; they’re a very important tool in the arsenal]. Here’s where I just wish people would be brutally honest: The vaccines do work, but they’re not perfect. We still need to mitigate, at least somewhat. Not close or lock down, but mitigate to prevent further worsening of outbreaks. So, yes, in public indoor spaces masks should be required. Public indoor spaces should have certain crowd limits. Even distancing should be encouraged in public spaces. Packed indoor events is just not a good idea right now, unless you know that everyone is vaccinated. But you don’t. And in the U.S. without any kind of proof of vaccination or negative test system that would allow entry to events ONLY to fully vaccinated or those who test negative, we’re left with a honor system that’s deeply flawed. We had a chance last summer to beat back the virus and didn’t. We had a similar chance this summer to beat back the virus and didn’t. By beating back I don’t mean eradicate. But I do mean suppress. Right now we’re like a very leaky boat with holes in it, which we could have patched up but failed to. The boat is still floating, sort of, but we have to bale water nearly continuously. Not a good way to handle an infectious disease pandemic.
Last summer there were Trump rallies and BLM protests. Looking back, I’m not all that certain those events made that much of a difference either way regarding Covid.
Outdoor protests and rallies didn’t contribute much. Indoor rallies and events did. That’s a theme throughout the pandemic, which is why I do think Times Square will have lots of people on December 31, 2021. And, we’ll have many more outdoor events than last year, including the marathon, regatta, football games with fans, and autumn fairs. It’s not as bleak as last year. I hope I’m not leaving the impression that it is as bleak as last year. It’s just still a very difficult period, and the virus is quite challenging.
U.S. now at >35k for the day, hospitalizations (and ICU usage) increasing steadily, too. Not so much in the Northeast, so that’s good. But, the Delta-fueled outbreak has expanded from Florida to California, and now includes all mountain states and a few states in the middle of the country. Hard to believe, but yet again we’re in exponential growth territory, much like Israel, the UK, Portugal, Spain. This virus is something else. Good lord.
Good Lord sums it up.
Joshua, any on how Hawaii is doing ?
Found Hawaii. They are doing all right. Wonder if they will close borders again
Did I miss this. Or maybe just blocked out because it is insanity?
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2021/07/13/tennessee-halts-all-vaccine-outreach-minors-not-just-covid-19/7928701002/
C-19 for 7-15 is ready.