Tuesday July 13 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

While we start this 5-day period considerably cooler than normal, with a frontal boundary sitting to our south, taking until sometime Wednesday to lift across the region, we are about to see some changes in our pattern, eventually leading to a more typical summertime set-up. But these are slow changes, first with the aforementioned warm front lifting through the region gradually, causing a couple more rounds of showers – a few around this morning, possibly a few more around overnight or early Wednesday. Later Wednesday, we’ll be in the warm sector but will lack complete clearing while a cold front approaches from the west. This cold front will be losing its identity as it pushes eastward as the air mass behind it, while a bit drier, is not really any cooler than the air mass it will be meeting ahead of it. However, with some daytime heating and instability, expect thunderstorms to fire off west of here, in NY State, during the day Wednesday, and remain strongest as they move into western New England, west of the WHW forecast area, during the afternoon, fading as they move eastward into the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening, with just remnant activity probably all that is left, maybe never reaching the eastern coastal areas at all except for a few isolated survivors. So, if you have outdoor plans today and/or tomorrow, while it won’t be perfect summer weather, much of the time will indeed be rain-free. Just keep an eye on radar if you can, just in case. When we get to the Thursday-Saturday period, we have 3-days of more typical summertime heat and humidity as high pressure builds aloft and surface high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Each of these days will have the risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but don’t read into this as being the same soaking wet pattern we’ve been in. The chance of any activity will be minimal Thursday, just isolated at best, and with no more than a slight up-tick in the chance and coverage on Friday. It will be Saturday when we see a slightly better chance of showers and storms as a cold front moves into the region, but don’t get too nervous about your weekend plans at this point.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing showers until mid morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early morning with a possible shower. Highs 77-84, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possibly early, especially west of I-95. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

A weak westerly flow will become dominant but to start the period a cold front will likely remain in the vicinity for July 18 with additional showers and thunderstorms possible before drier weather for a few days until the next system returns the chance of showers/storms later in the period. This is a departure from the much wetter pattern we’d been experiencing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

45 thoughts on “Tuesday July 13 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  7. Thanks TK. I’m in agreement with your general thinking above. More of the same through this weekend, but growing indications for a drier stretch from around the 20th through the end of the month. I’d expect that to be more sub-seasonal than a long term change. The current/recent pattern likely returns for most of August and September. But it would be good to get a break and dry things out.

    This has been quite an exhausting pattern on the operational side. This was the scene just outside Philadelphia yesterday…

    https://6abc.com/flash-flood-emergency-bucks-county-flooding-nj-bristol-pa/10882406/

    1. I agree.
      This wasn’t my original idea for summer overall, but we know how “easy” long range forecasting is .. haha!!
      The potential return of La Niña likely figures into the late summer pattern at least in part.

      1. The most worrisome part about this recent pattern returning for later in the summer is that it leaves us wide open to tropical mayhem. We already saw it with Elsa. Keep a Bermuda High offshore and have the trough set up in just the right spot to our west, and then add in something either passing just north of the Caribbean or developing near the Bahamas (like Bob), and we’re in trouble.

        Ryan Hanrahan wrote a great blog post about this years ago that I made sure to bookmark: http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/

  9. Thanks TK.

    TK – What will a La Niña late summer pattern look like? More of this current YUCK??

  12. 12z Euro op run quite wet Sunday, Mass Pike northward. Location perhaps to change, hopefully not southward.

  13. 66F to 70F, dp’s in the low 60s.

    It’s not raw cold, still has a somewhat summery feel to me. Have A/C set to run at a slightly higher temp, so it comes on every now and again and removes the dampness, hopefully.

    I feel like I’m losing out on summer, like on July 3rd, when it was 57F with a dewpoint of 54F. That felt chilly, raw and out of season.

  14. I got your heat and humidity for those who are fans of it down here in Virginia this week. Low to mid 90s dew points low to mid 70s. I am on vacation so I don’t mind this. If I was home different story.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Definitely a cooler day today on Nantucket as well. We biked to Sconset Beach and the temp is maybe 65 with fog, mist, and that raw east wind blowing straight at us off the ocean. Not bathing suit weather but perfect temps for the long bike ride out here.

    1. Sounds like Ireland in summer on the west coast, with the wind coming in from the west off the Atlantic.

      Know that bike path and route well. Love it. Enjoy, Mark!

  16. Then there’s the Lambda variant, which we’ve imported from South America. Not sure if this one is as successful as Alpha and Delta at out-competing other variants. But, scientists are discovering a disconcerting finding that Lambda may reduce the ability of vaccines to induce antibody production. We’re talking diminished capacity, and not an elimination of antibody production. Also, it’s still unclear if this would impact the vaccines’ ultimate efficacy. Still, we need to be watchful. This is where the variants keep us on our toes. They’re trying to outsmart us. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714876-pfizerbiontech-moderna-vaccine-effect-impacted-by-covid-19-lambda-variant?

    1. I apologize for this post on the weather side of things. Unintentional error on my part. And no, there is NO hurricane named Lambda, at least not that I know of!

    2. We have outsmarted ourselves.

      Pretty simple to me, everyone gets vaccinated, then the virus really has so much less spread and that decreases the chances it creates new variants.

    1. I saw a comment that pretty much said it all

      At least this wasn’t last year when we needed outdoor seating to help restaurants

      I’m on the deck. Not bad at all

    2. Good to see they are cooling off. It was 102 with a dewpoint of 83F earlier in the day.

      That is absolutely dreadful by the way. That equates to a heat index of 131. I’d pass out instantaneously.

      1. And a relative humidity of only 55%. Good example there of the difference between humidity and dewpoint.

    3. I wonder what that actually FEELS like. I see what the heat indice is, but that has to be indescribable.

  18. As I said before I spent 3 summers at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar which was about 30 minutes from Doha. Every night around midnight the wind would shift to a sea breeze and the humidity would pile in. Everything around would start dripping as if it were raining out. It always amazed me as it was desert all around. The wind would shift back to a land breeze around 6am and the temp would jump back up and by 9am back in the extreme heat and stinging hot, dry wind. Wash, rinse repeat!!! Although, the weather is fantastic from October-March. Well almost except thats sand storm season! Hahaha

    1. Qatar is the host of the 2022 men’s World Cup. Now I understand why the tournament will be played November-December rather than next summer! 🙂

    2. Wow. I don’t know how you did it. There really are not enough words and thank you surely is not enough. Bless you!

      1. I’m not sure how we managed as I was having a tough time in the heat here the other day! The only thing you can do in conditions like that is to manage it. You know it’s going to be brutally hot so expect it and stay hydrated and stay out of the sun. Of course being in aircraft Maintenance it’s hard to find shade and you definitely didn’t want to be in the jet. Hot metal tube no good! You never went out alone on the flight line. Heat related illnesses come on to quickly. Touching anything metal required leather gloves.

  19. 00z GFS on board with the Euro for another weekend washout with rainfall totals of 1-3″ and locally heavier for much of the region.

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