54 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – August 4 2021”

  1. Joshua,
    Thank you so much for your input here. Please keep it coming.

    FWIW, if I had school age children, they would NOT be going to school. They would be home schooled until this pandemic
    is done. NO WAY would I send my children into the
    viral petri dish called schools.

    I guess when children start dying from this, people will take notice and do what is required.

      1. Although, I agree the IEP situation is challenging, however,
        I would do all in my power to do something at home even for that. Now, I understand completely that most people don’t have that ability nor do they have the finances to do so.

        If unable to do so, I would consider putting all of that on hold until this all passes.

        Is it worth a child’s life? I think not. But I am not in that position, so perhaps my comments are not fair.

        1. Also, to be fair, my wife and I are both college educated
          and are fully capable of providing home schooling. Most parents are not in that position, so it is really challenging.

          I guess I am just commenting on what my wife and I would do given our situation.

          1. JPD. I am also commenting only on what I would do and some of my children. I can’t and won’t speak for all children…..no one has that right

    1. JPD of course I agree. Three of my grandchildren have IEPs. All three were full remote for the year and they jumped much further ahead than they would have in school.

      One example. Second grade teacher was pushing his mom to have him in school because he had fallen back when schools were shuttered in March 2020 and no one was prepared for remote. Daughter understood her child best. At the end of the year, this same teacher told daughter that my grand not only caught up but jumped ahead more than a grade. That is only one of many examples.

      The reason is that Sutton and neighboring Uxbridge worked hard to prepare for remote…..not only in summer 2020 but through the year. Many schools did not prepare last year. They are not preparing this year.

      A principal friend who has been recognized for accomplishments stateside told me that it was a learning experience to see how many students did well. That principal said no one can group all kids into one bucket and declare remote does not work.

      Adding…..zooming into a class works but does not work as well as individual zooms for all remote.

  2. When vaccinations opened up to all >18 in mid April I wondered whether that was a good decision. While we had done a good job in vaccinating the >65 and those at risk it wasn’t enough. There was outreach, but I found it spotty then, as I do now. Some of it was downright gimmicky – lotteries, prizes. Sure, this helped a little. But, it did next to nothing to reach the most vulnerable groups. While Delta attacks more younger folks than previous variants and can be lethal to them, its primary death victim is still a person >65, immunocompromised, or with a serious pre-existing condition.

    I’ve now analyzed numbers for ALL Western, affluent nations. We’ve fully vaccinated 81% of >65. Nice number, to be sure, but it pales in comparison to our peers – average is 93%, with many >96%. I assume that the percentage differential is even worse in the US (compared to peer nations) for the immunocompromised and those with serious underlying health conditions.

    Governor Scott (R) of Vermont understood this issue very early on. He started a door-to-door outreach campaign, and the numbers prove he was right. Highest percentage of vaccinated overall, and among the vulnerable the number is right up there with the UK and Canada. Vermont is impacted by Delta, but not nearly as badly as other states. It still is performing better than all other states on all indicators.

    Scott is a very humble person. But he deserves a medal, an award of some kind, for approaching this pandemic in a non-partisan way. Gosh, he not only works with his Democratic colleagues, he praises them as they do their work for the common good, the gets praised in return. For those of you who think Scott is not a real Republican. You’re wrong. He’s actually more real than practically any GOP member of Congress. He’s libertarian in many ways – opposes too much government meddling in economic affairs – and has a core set of GOP values. Yet, on public health, he knows that to politicize it – whether it’s masks, vaccines, or anything else in the Covid realm – means you’ve already failed to do right by your constituents.

    1. The Individualized Educational Plan (IEP) is a plan or program developed to ensure that a child who has a disability identified under the law and is attending an elementary or secondary educational institution receives specialized instruction and related services.

  3. The Obama 60th birthday bash has been canceled for all practical purposes and scaled back to only close friends and family. I get the impression that many VIP’s were invited originally but not Present Biden, surprisingly. Just as well in that regard given our circumstances with Delta.

    1. I never understood what he was thinking but am glad he came to his senses. It just wasn’t something I think of as Obama

  4. I think things are going to be moving forward differently . It was announced today that all nursing home staff & contractors get vaccinated ( mandatory I think by 10/1 . I think that a lot of business/ establishments, venues etc will follow NYC & make all patrons to be vaccinated in order to enter ( I’m for this ) a lot of employment places now are making vaccination mandatory ( my employer announced last week ( I don’t think it was there plan but they are going by what they are seeing . We are now going between a war between the folks who got the shot & folks who do not want it . I believe going forward & the closer we get towards the winter it’s going to become harder for those folks not vaccinated. I also believe full masking is coming back before winter for everyone.

    1. Yep. This makes me feel physically ill. We are in for a horrible mess if we don’t smarten up. The second bullet literally brings tears. The infectious disease director is right. If we don’t restore masking and other steps this will become an “unmitigated disaster.”

          1. Does it say how many total cases that represents?
            If it is ave 400 daily cases for 60 days that’s 24 ,000 cases ang 8,000 would be 33%
            If we use 400 per day for 90 days that’s 36,000 cases, and 8,,000 would be about 22% or so.

            1. I don’t know JPD. The fact that folks are dying is worrisome. That doesn’t count the many long haulers. Joshua. Do you know if anyone keeps track of the number of long haulers.

          2. You might want to post this part.

            The 100 deaths out of nearly 4.3 million fully vaccinated residents represents a rate of just 0.002%

            1. I am afraid I don’t think of folks as percents. The bellwether was vaccines will protect you 95 percent from having covid. Then it shifted to the you may get covid if vaccinated. Now it seems it has shifted to you may die but only a few of you.

              Sorry I simply cannot agree that the vaccines are working as promised

            2. But, that does not paint the picture. How many vaccinated persons of the new cases? That is the number we need to look at.

          3. Actually the vaccines are doing a great job. It’s how you frame the numbers, everyone does it to fit their narrative.

  5. UK Delta wave is not over. Wish Gottlieb and others would stop acting as if it is. Just because it’s past peak doesn’t mean it’s over. UK recorded >29,300 new cases today and 119 deaths. Hospitalizations are still very elevated. I’ll be entering a cauldron of infection, more so than Massachusetts, but less than in Florida.

    1. You see it being another bad winter Joshua. And how do feel about establishments making you show proof of vaccination for inside entry . I think the acting mayor of Boston response yesterday was absolutely disgusting & embarrassing bringing slavery into the discussion .

      1. No, I don’t think this winter will be as bad as last, especially in highly vaccinated New England. Vaccines do still work well against severe disease, in spite of a concerning degree of vaccine evasion. So, absent a variant we haven’t heard about yet that’s even better at vaccine evasion, I don’t think this winter will be as bad as last.

        This said, we must be vigilant. Suppress transmission as much as possible, to not allow new variants to emerge that breach the defenses even more. Here, the discussion should be nuanced and Delta-relevant. This is why states must ensure they count current late June/July onward data and at least separate out previous data in calculations of vaccine efficacy. It’s not relevant what the vaccines did against Alpha or the wild type. It is relevant what the vaccine is doing against Delta. And yes, vaccines still work, but they’re very much losing efficacy – a lot of efficacy when it comes to contracting the virus, and a modest amount of efficacy when it comes to severe disease.

        Very few experts projected the magnitude of the current wave, when interviewed in May and early June. I was very surprised then – you’ll recall – at their lack of awareness of what was happening outside our borders. So many people insisted that the U.S. was different. We have better vaccines, more natural immunity. All total bull crap. In fact, in reality what will set us apart from our peers is the fact that Delta already impacts us worse than it does them, and will continue to do so. Far worse. Appallingly bad vaccination campaign post May 2021. Awful communication and messaging from the CDC and national governors. A President who’s out to lunch when it comes to Covid-19 response. I’m sorry, but however much I like Biden personally I will never forgive him for saying “we’re independent from the coronavirus” or “the virus is on the run” on July 4th. Goodness, Joe. Please don’t mimic your predecessor. I said it then. Yet, he did. Dumb.

        The case, and especially hospitalization and death numbers in the U.S. are so bad (particularly in the South and Southwest, but not exclusively) right now that we’re beginning to look like the ONLY wealthy, industrialized nation to see such a weak decoupling between cases and hospitalizations (almost none in some states), and between cases and deaths (more of a decoupling, for sure, but not nearly to the degree of any other peer nation).

        Finally, we run the risk of ignoring the real and damaging issues related to Long Covid, if we only look at deaths. I’ve always considered the fixation on the number of deaths to be strange, especially because with most diseases (diabetes, heart disease, cancer) we take morbidity indices just as seriously as mortality. So, the more cases we have – also among children – the greater the likelihood of damaging long-term consequences for some.

        1. Exactly. No question we are getting some benefits from the vaccine. It isn’t close to as promised. But this is a different animal. Our experts need to let go of the “as promised” and face the reality. When we are vaccinated, we cannot resume activities that you did before the pandemic (CDC quote). The vaccine does not reduce the risk of people spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 (CDC quote).

          To be fair, the promises were all before delta. To be honest, we should have started changing the message months ago. We didn’t. And we are barely changing it now. Often I’m unsure whether our health experts and leaders are even capable of admitting something just isn’t working as it should.

          I have been fairly open about my frustration that we ignore the long haulers. But as you stated, we seem to forget those who have life long complications.

          1. I absolutely think proof of vaccination for almost anything we do is coming , wait for it . These proof cards will go everywhere you go .

            1. I have to,think about that a bit. I am not sure how we jump over masks to that. I know restaurant personnel are worried about policing patrons. But then on the other side of the coin, it eliminates closing restaurants. Or does it since we know the vaccinated carry as much viral load as unvaccinated. Please don’t think I’m against proof of vaccine. There are just Lots of questions.

              1. Adding that many flight attendants are being physically attacked when they ask passengers to wear masks. How does questioning a vaccination fit into the mentality of some of these folks

              2. There is lots of questions . I would think the restaurant industry would be for this . It’s already happening in Boston already in some restaurants & gyms . NYC starts this month & will enforce it even more come October. Like I said the writing is on the wall with this it’s coming down to the vaccination vs non vaccination folks . The unvaccinated folks will slowly be getting shut out as there is just way to much risk involved. I really do not think my employer wanted to go mandatory but they have no choice & others are & will continue to follow . Many , many workplaces will say it’s mandatory period & the restaurant industry, sport venues etc will probably have there hand forced as well with the very , very contagious variant , what else can be done . Masking is already being handed out at stores now & some places bringing it back all together. It’s probably also just a matter of time before the big chain supermarkets bring back masking for customers as well , definitely no light at the end of the tunnel as far as I’m concerned. And another big thing going on is finding people to work . Some restaurants down here have chose to reduce hours or close one day a week because they can’t find help . Finding employees now is very , very hard with a ton of places in just about every field desperately looking for workers .

  6. In a recent poll, 53% of unvaccinated people believe that the vaccine is more deadly than COVID-19 itself.

    WHERE do people get their information from anyway???????

    As you always say Vicki, “you can’t fix stupid”.

    1. Some comes from the followers of you know who. Others are folks who don’t trust the message. That part I get.

  7. Inauspicious `start’ to the trip. Trying to check in with Delta (that in itself bodes poorly during a Delta wave) and can’t; after filling in all my details and going through multiple steps/pages it simply says “we can’t process your request, contact the reservation center. I must check in now to get a seat number for the UK passenger locator form (it asks for a specific seat). Maybe the flight’s been cancelled. This reservation I’ve had has been re-booked by the airline 6 times in 8 weeks (changed dates of flying – shortened my trip by 3 days, in fact). On hold for an hour thus far with `customer service.’

      1. Got through after an hour. The person couldn’t explain why I couldn’t check in – will have to at airport. Said “I can’t give your seat number until you get to the gate, you’re economy light.” I begged her for a seat number as I really need it for the PLF. She did give it to me. I’m way in back of the plane, in what used to be the smoking section. After all this I might just light up a Marlboro Light.

          1. It’s okay. I’m mentally prepared for anything at this point, which is probably a good thing.

            On the seat – 59G – I think I can probably move towards a better one as I’m hearing the flights are still quite empty. Who knows, though. I’ve got my N95 masks, hand sanitizer, a slew of forms, and a bunch of gifts for my daughter. Takes up more than 50% of my luggage space. For my trip back that same space will be filled with books from the wonderful book shops of London, vinyl albums from an amazing outdoor market near my daughter’s, and some British cat nip for my cat. Of course, that could land me in trouble with the authorities at Logan. They’ll think it’s pot or some illegal plant. That’s a bridge we’ll cross when I return home.

            It’s going to be an interesting journey.

            1. I do feel for you, Joshua. But, you had me laughing, especially about the British catnip. Your cat must be very discriminating! I also picture you standing in a line with your luggage next to someone with a support cat.

              Best wishes!

            2. I’m doubled over here. Cat nip. Weed. Oh dear. Do what Mac did. He took hot dogs to his dad when he visited In Rome. He stuffed them in his golf bag. Do you need a gold bag 🙂 🙂

  8. Ok. It’s time to get serious. VERY SERIOUS. What are we going to do here without you, Joshua?

    1. Unless I’m totally knackered, I’ll check in periodically, you’ll be chuffed to know.

      Will let you know about the proper nosh I’m eating – like fish and chips wrapped in the London Evening Standard, and the warm lager I’m getting sloshed on.

      Keep calm and carry on, my WHW mates. Cheerio.

    2. I was thinking the same, Vicki. At least over at WHW there’s SAK, WxW and JMA to sort of take over for awhile until TK can return to the blog if he’s “indisposed”.

      Oh well. We’ll just have to make do and continue posting until Joshua returns. We can still comment and answer questions as best we can. We’ve had a 1 1/2 years worth of Covid-19 knowledge. 🙂

  9. Good luck Joshua and thank you for all the valuable info on a daily basis!!

    C-19 for 8-5 is ready.

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