10 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – October 20 2021”

  1. Netherlands’ cases and hospitalizations continue to increase steadily.

    Doubling of cases in one week in Poland. Polish ministers are very concerned.

    All Russians are now being asked not to leave their homes this week. Case, hospitalization, and death records set today. It’s a holiday week, so that should help. But, it also shows that the authorities are very worried.

    Morocco banning flights from UK. I think that their concern is less with the rising number of cases, and more the sub-variant. Other countries may follow suit.

    California is reporting gradual improvement in case growth, which is good. But, it’s seeing a rise in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the >70 population. I think this points to waning immunity. My guess is that Florida is in a similar scenario (based on still very high death numbers), but we won’t know definitively because Florida data are released late and not comprehensively at all. Public health is not DeSantis’s priority.

    The U.S. as a whole is reporting an increase in deaths – 7-day average is now ~1,650 – over last week. Cases and hospitalizations continue to decline, though more gradually than last week.

    1. Joshua, is there any way to determine what vaccine the over 70 breakthrough group had? Have the third vaccines for moderna even been approved. I’ve only seen recommended for approval.

      I don’t want to have the third too soon if this new variant is coming. But may not wait until the 8 month mark

    1. It was June when he said in two weeks delta would be under control. I wonder if Biden gets some of his info from him. Gottlieb does this far too often for me to trust his view of future. He seems ok when it comes to current advice/views.

  2. Where sequencing is being done, AY.4. sub-lineages are increasingly dominant. They’re also causing a lot of breakthroughs. I don’t like this one bit.

    Ireland sequences systematically and AY.4. is now dominant (64% nationwide; 51% in Waterford, specifically): https://www.irishpost.com/news/waterford-has-irelands-second-highest-covid-19-incidence-rate-despite-fact-99-7-of-residents-are-fully-vaccinated-222363

    Erie County, PA, AY.4 accounts for 50% of new cases. Here’s the hospitalization breakdown: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCFT3kKXEAkkOCy?format=jpg&name=360×360

  3. British Health Secretary just gave a speech. He says “Plan B” won’t be implemented “at this point,” but pundits suggest this means Plan B will be implemented at some point soon. In the speech, he noted that he expects cases to rise to 100,000 a day. To me, it’s the hospitalizations and deaths increase that are more worrisome, now at 14% and 8%, week over week growth, respectively. https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1450889939365867523

    I sometimes wonder if our policymakers and experts are paying attention to overseas developments. They should. Frankly, how can the U.S. avoid what’s happening in the U.K.?

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