Sunday November 7 2021 Forecast (6:55AM)

30 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Welcome back to Standard Time! If you haven’t changed your clocks that don’t automatically change, it’s time to do so! We have another nice day in store today, in fact we have a stretch of nice days that pretty much go right through this 5-day period through the middle of the coming week. As we anticipated, a storm stays far offshore today / early Monday as we are protected by high pressure, which extends its coverage through Tuesday. There will be a contrast in temperatures when you compare the cold morning lows occurring as I write this update (20s in many areas, 30s in urban centers and higher elevations), to the 60s many places will see by Tuesday afternoon. When we get to Wednesday, I’m still expecting a low pressure area to whistle by to our north, dragging a barely noticeable warm front / cold front combo across the region, made known only by some clouds and shifting and increased breezes. A bubble of high pressure will move in for a slightly cooler but dry Veterans Day on Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered in some areas by high clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy RI and southeastern MA, mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Unsettled weather is likely for the early through mid portion of this period, with the impact likely coming from two systems. We start out with a southwesterly air flow aloft and a system moving in from the west, with rain or rain showers likely at some point November 12 and based on current timing again sometime November 14 to early November 15. We start to get into colder air toward the end of the period which brings up the question of whether or not we end up with some mix/frozen precipitation before the end of the unsettled stretch – and we have lots of time to analyze the possibilities and answer the question before the event takes place. Colder air should be here by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Fair, cooler or colder weather to start and based on the overall expectations of pattern evolution we should moderate but have some unsettled weather before the end of the period. Far too future for any real details of course.

30 thoughts on “Sunday November 7 2021 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  1. Reposting from the tail end of yesterday’s comments:

    00z ECMWF and 6z GFS both showing the potential for some snow with a system next Monday.

    Related to the discussion earlier, FWIW the last several runs of the CFS are indicating some very cold air for the 2nd half of November and much of December. Yesterday’s 18z run had the period from 11/14-12/14 averaging 7-9 degrees below normal around here (That’s the average for the entire 30 days). Today’s 00z run has the week of 12/13-12/20 averaging 10-15 degrees below normal.

    The 35-day GFS also shows it turning colder, but not to that magnitude (more like 2-4 degrees below normal). The 46-day ECMWF has temperatures near to a little below normal for that period.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Made it down to 29vagain here in JP.
    Logan, not so much.

    6z GFS showing some snow in about 8 days or so Euro, a little, but not as much. So far out there, but we can watch just the same.

  3. Thanks TK, SAK.

    So good to have early morning light for my commute to work, even if just a sliver to start out! 🙂

    Why our Congress (Ed Markey) wants “morning darkness” for months on end (7 to be exact) I don’t understand. Sunrises around here would be as late as 8:22 am during the depths of winter!! 🙁 🙁

    October through mid-April.

    I don’t relish the upcoming late afternoons either BUT those are only a few weeks and they go back the other way a week before Christmas. The mornings don’t go the other way until a couple weeks into the New Year. Of course even under current standards, morning darkness returns again for another few weeks anyway.

    Why does our nation hate morning light so much??? 🙁

    Today was the best I have felt coming in to work since September! 🙂

  4. Thank you, TK. And, thank you SAK.

    Decided not to change my clocks. I’ll be an hour early for everything between now and March, but at least I won’t be late.

      1. Might as well. March will be here before you know it anyway. 😉

        Of course if Congress has its way…don’t get me started on that again. 🙁

        And who changes clocks anymore anyway? Our devices do it for us and they haven’t complained, at least not yet. 😀

    2. I knew someone who did that. He was a visiting mathematician that I did some work with as a graduate student. His home country had no such thing, so he figured he could make it through one year without any clock changes. The academic world is probably a bit more forgiving than the “real world.”

      1. SClarke. If I don’t have my dates mixed up, I believe this past week was difficult for you. Sending hugs and understanding.

    2. I wouldn’t get too hung up on any one run. These are going to change all over the place. The idea is the same, but the pattern doesn’t really “change” until we get into the last third of November. This system is not really part of the new pattern, but part of the transition (regardless of what it does).

  14. A serviceable game. Give this Pats win to the defense.
    Mac had a few bumps for sure, but he’s coming along and will be a good one for sure. Running game looks decent as well.

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