Friday February 4 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

153 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

It’s Flash-Freeze-Friday February Fourth! A whole lot of F’s there, and a few other words that start with that letter may come from people’s mouths before today is over, regarding the weather. The anticipated temperature drop is ongoing now from north to south and will continue during the day, with the sharpest drop coming with the passage of a cold front and then a more gradual drop to follow. This is causing rain to turn to freezing rain and sleet from north to south, a process that will continue during the morning and midday hours, resulting in slippery travel conditions developing (also watch for some road flooding from some heavier rainfall that has been occurring for the last few hours leading up to dawn). As precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon and this evening, some areas may get a small accumulation of snow atop the ice, especially north and west of Boston, but snow won’t be a big deal. We stay cold with icy ground through the coming weekend with dry weather continuing and a bit of a temperature moderation by Monday. Watching low pressure to pass south of the region Monday night into Tuesday, probably far enough to have little or no impact on the region.

TODAY: Overcast with rain transitioning to freezing rain & sleet north to south morning, continuing afternoon, tapering off later in the day. Glazing of ice on some surfaces due to flash freeze and some freezing rain, and accumulation of sleet a coating to as much as 1 inch. Temperatures starting out ranging from the lower to middle 30s southern NH and northern MA to near 50 South Coast, falling to the 20s except lower 30s South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/snow possible South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Overall quiet pattern with more seasonable temperatures. Best chance of unsettled weather comes later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

153 thoughts on “Friday February 4 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Temp drop appears to be very slow.

    Wouldn’t that prevent a flash freeze ?

  2. Thanks TK !

    Early release today in Marshfield.

    We’ll see what its like in 4 hrs.

    I’m not optimistic, as when I look in southwest ME, even to the NH Seacoast, the cold air is really on the move.

  3. At 7am, it was 34 here in JP, now down to 33, but temp is not crashing. It is slowly drifting downward.

    1. It is drifting down currently.

      But, I think as one of the wave’s of low pressure passes by, the north wind will increase some and the even colder air now in Portsmouth and SW Maine will come in at a quicker rate.

      1. pretty decent wind out there now. it should be advectting the colder air. just very slow . 11z HRRR has sleet in Boston by 8AM. I don’t see that happening until a little later. I’ll be looking and listening.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully icing later this afternoon will be minimal. I would like to get home from work in one piece. Tomorrow may be another issue.

  6. Logan is now down to 32. Still 33 here in JP.

    Beverly is 30
    Bedford is 34

    This speaks to what Tom was saying

    1. I think we will see freezing rain here before we see sleet. It’s 32 in Dedham where I am working. It is raining but soon it will be freezing in contact. Sleet won’t occur until the column in the mid levels begin to cool further.

    1. You’re in Swampscott, correct. That is how close it is.
      But it isn’t here. 🙂 Better sleet and snow than freezing rain.

  12. No school here in Sharon. Probably the right call a specially since Baker basically said no one can drive today. Temp holding at 34 with plain rain. I don’t quite understand the rationale of communities with delayed school openings. Wouldn’t that be putting the kids and buses out when the temps are crashing??

      1. Middleborough has a early release. High school gets out at 11:30, but the elementary schools are out at 1 pm.

        We’ll see what happens in the early afternoon. We still have moderate rain

  13. Crazy thing happened. My rain gauge started working again.

    I think that big slug of snow in the gauge did something to
    the mechanism. Seems to be working fine now.
    Shows 1.22 inches for this system. Still looks a tad high,
    but at least it is working.

  14. Thank you, TK. Lots of Fs here as our foundation is leaking again. The yard has inches of slush, some of which is piled against the uphill side.

    Holding at 33 and rain here. Daughters weather app…yes, I know….says 31 and freezing rain in Sutton center. That is entirely possible since it is typically colder

  15. Car tops and pavements are beginning to whiten up from the sleet. Puddles from the rain are getting SLUSHY already.
    I am going to have to lay down some ice melt soon.
    I don’t want the mailman falling on his ass.

  16. Was 50 here just prior to 5 and then dropped to 40 by 6:45, now down to 33.

    Vicki, I feel your pain. I went to check on the basement this morning and was surprised to find my water heater leaking!

    All good for now. Hope your leak is able to be temporarily stopped.

    1. Oh nooooo. If you need any suggestions, my SIL would be very happy to talk with you. Please just message me on FB. Good luck.

  17. Even with sleet, I see that there are small dewpoint depressions developing.

    IE, the temp may be 31F, but the dp is 28F.

    I think this can allow for further cooling on the pavements, streets, etc.

    So, while its sleet accumulating, the evaporative cooling will still freeze the wetness of the pavement below the sleet.

    1. It was need to see the bagginess in the isobars last night on the HRRR and other short term models.

      I’m always fascinated watching the cold slide southwestward from coastal Maine and NH

    3. THANK YOU. My SIL had planned today with for now business calls then had to drive to Home Depot in Oxford because of our leak. This map shows me he may be ahead of the ice

  24. Thanks TK
    My temp had been steadily dropping since about 3:00am made it down to 32.5 and has not budged since about 7:00. All rain haven’t had any mixing yet.

  25. Thanks, TK.

    Sleet or slydda in Icelandic is a very common precipitation type in Reykjavik, Iceland. On my many flights to and from the Netherlands during the 2000s I used to try and read the newspaper (Morgunblaðið) they’d hand out to all passengers (even if it was obvious you didn’t read Icelandic) and I’d notice the weather report in the upper right hand corner. It would often have “slydda” for 4 straight days!

  26. The definition of “flash freeze” includes a time limit of “up to a few hours” for the process to take place, so yes, today will qualify.

    1. North, What do you call Winter mode.

      There is a precipitation depiction mode that shows precipitation type. It is not always all that accurate.

      Is that what you mean? if there is something else, can you tell me what it is.

      thanks

  31. We’re through the steadiest precip. Be thankful, as was indicated previously, that more than 50% of it came in liquid, non freezing form. We dodged an epic ice / sleet event fairly closely.

    From now on it’ll be sputtery until it’s gone this evening.

  33. From what I can tell, the real cold air isn’t rushing into SNE as advertised. Perhaps that is a good thing for this afternoon?

    Of course, NNE stations are all reporting sleet and/or snow. Plenty cold there.

      1. “Think of yourself as a penguin and you’ll be all right.” I was going to reply with my concern that someone near me might be thinking like a seal. But a quick search taught me something new. A healthy adult penguin has no natural predators when out of the water.

  36. Thanks TK.

    Light rain and 33-34F still here in Coventry. No icing.

    It was a scheduled half day of school here today for staff development (scheduled release of 11AM) and they cancelled school anyway. What a waste! Now they need to make it up at the end of the year. Better safe than sorry I guess.

      1. Thanks! I assume it will be crowded but fortunately there is a lot of space to move around at Killington when they are 100% open and have all bases and lifts open. We are going to try and get there early.

  38. I think a lot of people misunderstood this forecast.
    It wasn’t going 50 to 20 in ten min….

    1. I guess I was one of “those” people who misunderstood. 😉 Maybe not THAT dramatic but I was really thinking “freefall”. Even Harvey admitted on air that the model he was showing a bit overdone.

      1. Temp decline followed high res short range guidance fairly closely and right about my expectations as well.

  39. Finally dropped the one degree, wind picked up briefly as the temp dropped and rain changed to what I think is freezing rain but could be sleet. My use of the word, finally, does not in any way mean change to ice was welcome

  41. Thanks for the walking diagram. I sent it on to my students as we have been talking about Newton and action/reaction force vectors. A little snow day physics!

  44. Thanks JPD for the walking tip on ice. Don’t penguins waddle from side to side also? I have seen them slip once in a while.

  45. A little light snow falling here, unless it is fine,fine sleet or
    frozen drizzle. It has lowered vis while sleet did not.

  46. Precipitating very lightly here now and down to 32. I honestly cant tell what it is (frz drizzle, sleet?) but something is accumulating a bit on the deck.

  47. Radar looks like it’s starting to open up a bit. Thanks TK for all your help during an active week plus of weather.

  48. we are over to all ice pellets now, accumulating on the lawns and the streets are now iced over.

    Seeing light stuff per Eric tweet and the models to continue into the early evening hours. We´ll have lost solar radiation by then. Assuming things will only get more slippery south of Boston over the next 4-6 hrs.

  49. A well behaved, well advertised winter weather event. We avoided what could have been worse, but we’re not completely done with it yet, and the deep freeze is settling in from north to south now (already teens to the N & W), we’ll see a lot of single numbers, teens, and lower 20s through early Sunday. Slow recovery after that for a few days.

    Still looks like a graze Tuesday with maybe a touch of rain or mix for the South Coast (tho it being Friday we can’t be 100% sure of that yet – still can be a bit further north of a complete miss).

    Mostly quiet pattern for the next 2 weeks is the way I am seeing it right now, after this event of course.

  51. If ever a week of weather defined New England and the mid latitudes, this was it.

    Blizzard with 20-30 inches of snow, thaw in which 90% of it melted, 1+ inch of rain, sleet/frz rain/snow grains event, all in about 144 hrs.

    3. I remember a winter or 2 in the mid 90s where we had a mixture of blizzards followed by heavy rains and ice storms

  53. The Minnesota Dept of Transportation just named two new snowplows: Betty Whiteout and Ctrl Salt Delete.

    1. OMG, I saw that yesterday and was going to post it. Some hilarious plow names in there…

      Minnesota Department of Transportation
      @MnDOT
      Feb 3
      Drumroll, please… here are your new snowplow names, Minnesota!

      After nearly 60,000 votes cast, Plowy McPlowFace has eight new friends joining the fleet – one for each MnDOT district around the state. Learn more here: http://mndot.gov/nameasnowplow

      https://twitter.com/MnDOT/status/1489268744287408130?s=20&t=po4uzZwhRW0xSBB3-U1y8A

    1. I rolled my eyes at that bad joke (almost as bad as one of mine), and the one-run-and-will-be-gone-next-run GFS I-hope-it-comes-true-cast. 😉

      Moving forward…

  55. Killington up to 17″ new
    Jay Peak now 24″ new in the last 48 hours.

    Looks like the southern VT mountains got screwed with icing. Bromley was unable to open today and Stratton had to close all their upper mountain lifts. Anywhere north of there though….Okemo and Killington and points north…really cashed in.

  56. I’d rather have 4 feet of snow than today’s sh*t. Absolutely miserable day starting off with a flooded basement and ending with a skating rink for a driveway

  57. All sleet covered roads here & I am not looking forward to heading into Boston for 11pm shift .

    1. Son drove home to RI From Boston after his shift. I was very nervous. Said they were doing good job keeping up on roads. Hope if is the same for you. Be safe

  58. I know I am the unpopular opinion around here most of the time but I loved today’s weather. There is something about sleet that is very appealing to me.

    Yes I sympathize with those who struggle driving and have other issues that come with this kind of weather, but I still love this kind of weather. I can’t help it. I’m not going to try to help it either. 🙂

    #SNS 😉

  59. Sleeting pretty good here now with some snow mixed in. One more batch to go beyond this. Roads and driveway are really starting to ice up now.

  60. Even if the Tuesday event gets closer, it would be rain showers for most as temperatures will be either side of 40 degrees.

    1. Agree Longshot. Just came from Beverly into Swampscott and the sleet was picking up there. Driving was sporadically dicey so I’m glad to be off the roads now.

  65. Okie dokie. Do both sleet and freezing rain accumulate on branches and railings as well as well as walkways and grass?

    We have a solid coating of ice on everything and the precip keeps on coming.

    Thank you

    1. I came home to “some” water in my basement restricted to one location. Otherwise everything is ok and nowhere near the heating system. Even though it poured at times, there were also lulls with thick fog.

    2. Very rare. We had a huge snow drift piled up along that side of the house and it is now about 1ft standing water/slush. Water had nowhere to go but in.

      1. We had about the same. We put our stick up ring cam back in basement. We caught it early so it is only maybe 5×3. Ace did yours cover a large area??

        North, thank you. How is your water heater??

        1. It is good now. It was the drain valve. I tightened it this morning which stopped the bigger leak and then got a brass cap to put on it tonight to stop the remaining leak. Had to go to Lowe’s and Home Depot to find. The roads were not good!

          Just glad I went to check the basement this morning for water and saw it, even though that’s not what I was looking for!

          We’re you able to plug your foundation leak again?

      2. That was my worry outside with the big drifts. I ended up shoveling a path in the middle of it. Not sure if that helped.

  67. South shore was definitely more a hit than Boston tonight . Plowing in pembroke when I left at 9pm & everything was covered on Rt 3 until the 93 split where roads were clean . All settled in now on shift till 7am lol .

    1. My old grounds crew guys were just wrapping things up & heading home at 10 when I arrived — things have changed I miss days but way more money doing what I’m doing now in new shop , I’ll get there & feel better as time goes on .

  68. Still trying to figure out what the news program that I saw meant that it was absolutely crazy that we’ve had 2 winter storms in one week’s time, kind of like the hundreds of times it’s happened before too I guess. 😉

    Winter weather in the winter. Who’d have thunk!? 😉 😉

      1. haha no no it was TV… It was just the producer’s writing probably. Over-dramatic. Yes it was a rough winter’s day today, but they made it sound like it’s never happened and that we’re in some kind of insane stretch of weather like 2015. Nope. We’ve had 2 storms, a big snowstorm, and a messy ice/sleet event. It’s winter. It happens. I can do without the drama and the close-ups of icicles hanging off a car license plate. But it’s not going to stop. 😉

  69. Light snow and sleet continues here. I see the NWS extended the WWA to 1am. Looks like another hour or two of snow/mix to go for Boston south.

  71. Question for WHW folks, how are the roads this morning? Thinking of driving to Providence, but could take the T.

    2. Main roads are treated and mostly fine. Secondary roads vary. and with some blowing sleet (yes, actually blowing sleet) some of them are getting sections of covering again.

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