Saturday February 5 2022 Forecast (9:45AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A taste of the tundra this weekend as the region is coated in a variety of ice and will be cold and dry. The exception to the “dry” will be the light snow that lingers across Cape Cod this morning, and a few more snow showers may catch the outer Cape a bit later due to a cold northwest wind blowing over relatively warmer water. The gusty weather of today will settle for a more tranquil Sunday, but outside of treated surfaces and locations that get a lot of direct sun, the ice isn’t going anywhere for the next couple of days as we stay well below freezing most of the time. High pressure slips offshore and we turn milder to start the week. Low pressure will then follow this, passing southeast of New England late Monday through Tuesday, but close enough to bring some light rain and snow to the region. High pressure returns with fair weather by Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with light snow Cape Cod morning then variably cloudy there with a few snow showers outer Cape Cod this afternoon. Elsewhere, cloud/sun mix. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Chance of light mix/rain favoring southern areas later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix. Temperature steady 33-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow, favoring southeastern areas in the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Seasonable to mild and dry early period, briefly unsettled mid period, shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

41 thoughts on “Saturday February 5 2022 Forecast (9:45AM)”

          1. Wow. We had many periods of mod-heavy sleet from 3-8 pm last night, topped by some light snow overnight.

            They have plowed in our town.

            Grass is fully covered.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    We still have a coating of a few inches from a week ago today. I have no idea how to measure the stuff we got but would hazard a guess of about 1/3”….maybe 1/2”.

    A fifth pajama day for me since I can’t get to my car with the ice on the driveway.

    1. You can probably add #6 tomorrow as it stands right now! The benefit you’ll get is the higher sun angle which will help tomorrow despite the below freezing temps. After that we get a bit “milder”.

  10. The take-away from the 12z stuff (minus ECMWF since it’s not here yet) is at least a close call, precip-type borderline.

        2. No idea yet. May come into play, but that makes the assumption that we actually GET the system.

  15. ECMWF tosses a batch of precip (snow inland, rain coast) through SNE Monday night and then takes the actual low too far SE on Tuesday. I need 24 hours to feel a bit more confident of how this plays out. But if I had to lean any way right now, it’s away from the NAM and toward a combo GFS/ECMWF. I think the NAM, outside of its good range, is over-developing the system too quickly.

    1. Thank you Tk

      Could this be a scenario where the models didn’t pick up on a storm until 48hrs out? Should be fun watching the 18z runs.

      1. Well the guidance has had the “disturbance” generally right as something off the Mid Atlantic and south of New England for several days now, and actually have done quite well in that regard. It’s the little details that come down to determining our more precise weather here that we won’t really know until 48 hours or less out. Better focus on tonight’s 00z suite, then progressively better from there, in theory at least.

  16. To the handful of colleagues reading this blog, Happy National Weatherpersons’ Day!

    I joked on social media that the timing was interesting this year around here having it come right after a one-two winter weather punch that probably made people a bit tired of hearing from us. 😉

      1. Boston Physician John Jeffries, one of America’s earliest observers, born on this day in 1744. He started taking daily observations as basically the first “climatologist” in Boston in 1774 and ten years later in London took part in the first weather balloon launch / observation from there.

  17. 18z stuff…
    The 12km NAM, still outside of its reliable range, has put itself on an island and is basically not worth paying much attention to. Previous thought on the Monday night / Tuesday threat stands as the current idea too.

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