Monday February 7 2022 Forecast (8:42AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to start the week. An inverted trough extending northward from the low will trigger some mix/snow going to rain, although it will be patchy in nature. Tonight, as the main low passes southeast of New England, a more solid batch of moisture will move through, but that atmosphere will be too mild to support snow, so it will fall in the form of rain with temperatures above freezing. Despite that, with the cold ground and cold packed snow/ice cover, there can still be some icy areas, so use caution if walking or driving. Conditions improve Tuesday as low pressure pulls away and a day that starts out wet will end up drier with some clearing by later in the day. Expect fair weather Wednesday with high pressure in control, the threat of a few rain showers with milder air Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front (with low pressure passing north of the region), then fair and slightly cooler weather Friday as high pressure builds back in.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as snow/mix from Boston north and west, with minor snow accumulation at most in higher elevations well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-40. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain. Areas of fog. Possible icing on cold surfaces. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog during the morning. Becoming partly sunny afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

While the pattern sends two or 3 disturbances across or near the region, the overall sensible weather will be on the quiet side entering mid February. Not looking for any major storms, but most likely 1 or 2 frontal passages, between which we may need to watch for a low pressure wave passing to the south of the region. Will detail timing etc. as these days get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Similar pattern, on the quiet side, a couple of systems that are likely minor, variable temperatures that average near to slightly above normal.

69 thoughts on “Monday February 7 2022 Forecast (8:42AM)”

    1. Coating at most interior higher elevations.

      A far cry from those initial 6-10 inch amounts the NAM was trying to give (that none of the mets believed). 😉

        1. I think for the most part, under 1 inch of rain will fall. It gets steady tonight, but not that heavy.

  6. Still have a heavy snow amount on the ground here in pembroke as we got an awful lot of snow here in pembroke.

    1. Even having lost over 50% of the snow cover due to compaction and melting, you’d still end up with a fair amount, and now it’s hard packed, which makes the rest of it disappear much more slowly.

  10. Let me know if this link works.
    If it does, it’s my son Nathan and myself coming down a hard packed snow/ice hill on 2 plastic sleds in a train (me holding the back of his sled) and then separating just before we reach the phone camera (which is propped in a rut I carved in the snow). My sled being much faster has already caught up to his as we pass by. He goes by left of the camera (on your right) and I go by right of the camera (on your left). This was really fun to make!

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/YGCvd3j54wpK5wdq9

  11. Temperature has crept up to 30 here in JP. Not doing anything at the moment. Next batch of precip is about 30 miles to our
    SW. Not sure what the precip type will be when it gets here.
    I am sure temps aloft are getting very marginal for snow and will be too warm soon.

    1. I think we get by it with minimal flooding issues. We were not so lucky in January 1978 when we had a combination of big snow, big warm, big rain, big cold. It was about as brutal a month as we’ve ever had around here (all before “The Blizzard”). I think our basement flooded 3 times that month. Unprecedented and has probably only happened a few times since…

  14. Morning darkness still continues to plague us even though the late afternoons are brightening a bit longer each day.

  15. Nice video of sledding. You guys are flying. I take it, since no one has mentioned it anywhere, that there is little to no chance of flooding. Still looks like the heaviest of the rain hits late night primarily over the south shore and cape. Thanks TK.

    1. That hill and run-out is about 125 yards long, about 50 yards for the hill, and another 75 yards of flat run-out across the field. My sled is so fast (I joke that it’s made from 1980s frictionless plastic) that it goes all the way across the run-out and I have to swing it around or stop it before I go into the woods…

      The only flooding we’ll see are in areas where there may still be some blocked storm drains and otherwise poor drainage areas due to snow piles etc. And always a chance of a little basement flooding but not so much due to heavy rainfall but due to the interaction of foundations and frozen ground or ice sloping toward the house. Otherwise, no big issues.

    2. Some support for a system on Valentines Day from the 12z UKMET also, as well as a few GFS ensemble members. But the GFS still largely not enthused.

      1. Would be nice not to have school the morning after the super bowl. Why it is on Sunday escapes me but adding late night Is nuts

        1. Spellman my sons school has it off every year as an earned fundraiser incentive day off . And I’m off Mondays now .

        2. I think the “football Sunday” tradition is too big a deal for media and many fans. They’ll never change the day of the week for the super bowl. If it were on a Friday or Saturday, the ratings would be lower.

          1. A lot of people work on Saturday as well. Not everyone has the typical M-F with both weekend days off.

            1. Yep. I saw that too. I think an afternoon super bowl would be wonderful. But the networks probably don’t. Again, like we see in weather and news related media, it comes down to ratings / money. And they seem to be stuck on this thing that people can only watch the big sports events in prime time. 🙁

              1. And that, sir, i am sure is the reason. Sadly.

                Oddly, though I wonder if anyone ever figured out how many are lost due to the late hour

          3. Reread your comment and guess which part I raised an eyebrow at….I suspect you may have when you typed it 😉 😉

  19. Shocker! The 12z Euro is now out to sea with the V-Day system. Still a week out…plenty of time for a closer pass 🙂

    1. That’s one of about a half dozen or more videos. I’ll see if I can get another link for one more fun one. 🙂

    1. Probably because they have to bleep out about 25 percent of the lyrics sung in the halftime shows. 😉

    1. For the last few days the expected track of low pressure was near 40/70. That’s where it’s going. Previously, the model consensus was for a miss or a graze.

      1. Just seemed like ch 5 started this morning with heavy rain headlines and by mid afternoon it was heavy rain for some and twice the totals forecast on the cape as in metro west. Maybe I am picking nits.

        1. Well like any system the details become better modeled (in general) as the event gets closer and your initial data is better. The short range guidance started to indicate those heavier totals for CC and nothing too heavy for Metro West, hence the more focused wording.

  26. As expected, we’re seeing increased fog over the region now as the temps & dew points meet up in more and more of the area.

  27. The day after the Super Bowl is the biggest call out day from work. I wish they would have the Super Bowl Sunday of Presidents’ Day weekend where most people are off the next day.

  28. This may be a silly question, but is there a way to tell where a snow or rainstorm will hit as it moves up the coast at an angle? I try to trace it out but thought there might be a more scientific method for the layman.

  29. I think it was ch 7’s radar a while back which would show the speed of the storm and general locations that were likely targets This was fun to use for t storms etc.

    1. That was probably a representation of one of the short range computer models, which are probably the best way to show the expected path of a storm, limited to the accuracy of the model, of course.

  30. That sleet/ice pellets/snow mixture sure takes a while to melt.

    40F and rain all night and some of it still hanging in there.

      1. It wasn’t warm enough for long enough yet. When you have basically packed ice, you need a lot more time to get rid of it. Most of it will be gone by later this week. We need several days.

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