So far Fauci is correct, which is good news. But, we’re not in the clear yet.
One thing that should be clear to all is that the BA.2 wave was never going to be as dramatic as the BA.2 surge. Even in the UK, where BA.2 is advancing, it’s not the steep slope they had back in December. For the latter to happen you’d have to have a total breakdown in our immune systems, if you will, with Omicron reinfections occurring in, say, more than 50% of people. That’s not happening. If I had to venture a guess I’d say reinfections occur ultimately in perhaps 10% of people who had BA.1. That’s still a high number, and with the new XE variant the number will climb further (waning immunity may compound the problem, too).
In countries that didn’t experience much of an Omicron BA.1 wave – South Korea, China – BA.2 is hitting them hard. There, it’s not reinfections it’s first time infections.
And, you’ll notice how fairly quickly the latest wave evolved, at least in terms of hospitalizations. In fact, the hospitalization curve is steeper than the case curve. That should ring alarm bells. I’m not saying this will happen here. But, we’re not out of the woods.
Last evening I watched the PBS documentary on Ben Franklin and “smallpox” was mentioned a lot to say the least.
Joshua, was that disease the Covid-19 of the day, so to speak?
Was the smallpox outbreak the first “pandemic” of the new world?
Vicki, thanks for sending the link to The Conversation article.
Covid-19 is not comparable to small pox or the plague, or even the Spanish Flu, though it’s closer to that virus than the other two diseases I mentioned. I also don’t think people should compare Covid-19 to HIV. Totally different diseases. One is VERY transmissible (C-19). The other is actually quite difficult to catch (HIV). HIV is a death sentence, more or less, without treatment. Covid-19 only kills a very small percentage of people who it infects, even without vaccines. It is far worse than influenza, yes. But, much less deadly than small pox (30%) fatality rate, the plague (30-50% fatality rate).
Here, I am NOT minimizing Covid’s impact. It’s been really bad, with >20 million excess deaths worldwide. But, relatively speaking, it’s benign compared to, say, small pox or the plague. It also distinguishes itself from Spanish Flu by impacting older populations more than younger ones. What I still worry about with Covid is that it will mutate into something that impacts younger folks worse. Delta and Omicron are both more impactful in younger populations than previous variants. But, they’re still much less impactful on such populations than Spanish Flu.
You’re welcome. I did post more for info and not comparison. Generally, I don’t try to compare much of anything
I lost a favorite cousin to HIV only weeks after losing my brother to melanoma. All diseases are heart wrenching
The U.S. data is still pretty good. I’m not going to declare victory for another couple of weeks. But, if we are at this level of cases and hospitalizations then, I’ll declare the pandemic over. We’ll have entered the endemic phase. The cautionary tale is the UK, so we must keep our eyes on that nation. I think we’re comparable in many ways. We both let go of most restrictions around the same time, so we were equally susceptible to BA.1. Could the difference be that BA.1 morphed into BA.1.1 (a sub-sub variant) in the U.S. (which is hypothesized), ran even more rampant here than there, and is now protecting us from a major wave? We shall see.
Thanks TK.
I heard on the radio this morning that Dr. Fauci doesn’t believe there will be much of a surge of the BA.2 variant.
I hope he is correct. It sure is surging in the UK.
New XE Covid variant.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2022/04/xe-variant-of-covid-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-newly-discovered-strain.html
So far Fauci is correct, which is good news. But, we’re not in the clear yet.
One thing that should be clear to all is that the BA.2 wave was never going to be as dramatic as the BA.2 surge. Even in the UK, where BA.2 is advancing, it’s not the steep slope they had back in December. For the latter to happen you’d have to have a total breakdown in our immune systems, if you will, with Omicron reinfections occurring in, say, more than 50% of people. That’s not happening. If I had to venture a guess I’d say reinfections occur ultimately in perhaps 10% of people who had BA.1. That’s still a high number, and with the new XE variant the number will climb further (waning immunity may compound the problem, too).
In countries that didn’t experience much of an Omicron BA.1 wave – South Korea, China – BA.2 is hitting them hard. There, it’s not reinfections it’s first time infections.
Here’s the reason I say we’re not in the clear yet. The UK data, as JPD alluded to, point to a sizable surge, not only in cases but also hospitalizations: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPknQxDWQAUCCoX?format=jpg&name=small
And, you’ll notice how fairly quickly the latest wave evolved, at least in terms of hospitalizations. In fact, the hospitalization curve is steeper than the case curve. That should ring alarm bells. I’m not saying this will happen here. But, we’re not out of the woods.
Last evening I watched the PBS documentary on Ben Franklin and “smallpox” was mentioned a lot to say the least.
Joshua, was that disease the Covid-19 of the day, so to speak?
Was the smallpox outbreak the first “pandemic” of the new world?
These are interesting
https://theconversation.com/this-isnt-the-first-global-pandemic-and-it-wont-be-the-last-heres-what-weve-learned-from-4-others-throughout-history-136231
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
Vicki, thanks for sending the link to The Conversation article.
Covid-19 is not comparable to small pox or the plague, or even the Spanish Flu, though it’s closer to that virus than the other two diseases I mentioned. I also don’t think people should compare Covid-19 to HIV. Totally different diseases. One is VERY transmissible (C-19). The other is actually quite difficult to catch (HIV). HIV is a death sentence, more or less, without treatment. Covid-19 only kills a very small percentage of people who it infects, even without vaccines. It is far worse than influenza, yes. But, much less deadly than small pox (30%) fatality rate, the plague (30-50% fatality rate).
Here, I am NOT minimizing Covid’s impact. It’s been really bad, with >20 million excess deaths worldwide. But, relatively speaking, it’s benign compared to, say, small pox or the plague. It also distinguishes itself from Spanish Flu by impacting older populations more than younger ones. What I still worry about with Covid is that it will mutate into something that impacts younger folks worse. Delta and Omicron are both more impactful in younger populations than previous variants. But, they’re still much less impactful on such populations than Spanish Flu.
You’re welcome. I did post more for info and not comparison. Generally, I don’t try to compare much of anything
I lost a favorite cousin to HIV only weeks after losing my brother to melanoma. All diseases are heart wrenching
The U.S. data is still pretty good. I’m not going to declare victory for another couple of weeks. But, if we are at this level of cases and hospitalizations then, I’ll declare the pandemic over. We’ll have entered the endemic phase. The cautionary tale is the UK, so we must keep our eyes on that nation. I think we’re comparable in many ways. We both let go of most restrictions around the same time, so we were equally susceptible to BA.1. Could the difference be that BA.1 morphed into BA.1.1 (a sub-sub variant) in the U.S. (which is hypothesized), ran even more rampant here than there, and is now protecting us from a major wave? We shall see.
Dear Heavens…how?
https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1511495865034285061?s=21&t=exmQ4CPsVmQJA_IcouRVTA
C-19 for 4-6 is ready.