Perhaps the biggest mistake that was made at the beginning of the pandemic was LOCKING DOWN! We should have kept the economy and schools open and just start masking. The deaths kept piling up anyway so I doubt it would have been much worse. Not to mention there wouldn’t have been so much panic buying (i.e. toilet paper) in supermarkets.
Makes me wonder what in heavens name our agencies are thinking.
Joshua…is much of this push to “declare Covid over” originating from the white noise?
Hahahahaha. Freudian perhaps.
White HOUSE
It is possible that nobody could have predicted. However, it should have been on the radar.
Not that I’m totally defending the CDC, but in all fairness, this was the first pandemic in 100 years (1918-1920).
Indeed it is. And that is fair for sure. I try to always see two sides so applaud your effort
What worries me is we also have much better scientific guidance in those decades. This is demonstrated by experts such as Topol. If you and I know the CDC is making blatant mistakes, it makes me very uncomfortable that they do not
Know.
Philip, I think the early lockdowns, if we want to call them that, saved many lives. Masks alone wouldn’t have done the trick. Look what happened in Hong Kong earlier this year. They had a case fatality rate of nearly 5% for about a month. Why? Well, a population that had no immunity whatsoever, and many weren’t vaccinated either, were all of a sudden in a situation with only minimal restrictions, albeit with masks. It turned out really badly for older people and other vulnerable members of society.
In March and April 2020 we had no vaccine, we had no treatment, we had a virgin population, if you will, that had never encountered any SARS-CoV-2. Let’s try to imagine what it would be like at the hospitals if we just had gone about our normal business. The surge would have been much worse than it already was. By locking down early on, and by keeping some restrictions in place into 2021 (admittedly, it was a porous policy) we did keep many folks getting infected PRIOR to the vaccination campaign. Once that was underway, layers of immunity began building. That did not mean we were out of the woods. Clearly not. We still aren’t. New variants emerged. Vaccines didn’t prevent transmission very well, and in some instances didn’t prevent severe illness and death. But, one must analyze the counterfactual. Had we done nothing early on, except masks, it would have been an unmitigated disaster. People will often say, well, how about Sweden. Didn’t they have no lockdown? Well, as I said before, Sweden also had many restrictions in place, including in their public schools. Not in primary schools, but they did in secondary schools and universities. They had very strict limits on gatherings in public places, stringent limits (that were enforced) on numbers of people in establishments (also strongly encouraged outdoor rather than indoor dining and drinking), took the distancing seriously, protected older and vulnerable folks as best they could, etc …
C-19
8-19
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks TK.
Perhaps the biggest mistake that was made at the beginning of the pandemic was LOCKING DOWN! We should have kept the economy and schools open and just start masking. The deaths kept piling up anyway so I doubt it would have been much worse. Not to mention there wouldn’t have been so much panic buying (i.e. toilet paper) in supermarkets.
Makes me wonder what in heavens name our agencies are thinking.
Joshua…is much of this push to “declare Covid over” originating from the white noise?
Hahahahaha. Freudian perhaps.
White HOUSE
It is possible that nobody could have predicted. However, it should have been on the radar.
https://twitter.com/alexmeshkin/status/1560069727317159936?s=21&t=LR5hGgCqlBTp6S0NEIua-A
I would absolutely love to see this man head the CDC
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1560271578289475585?s=21&t=LR5hGgCqlBTp6S0NEIua-A
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1560271582441787392?s=21&t=LR5hGgCqlBTp6S0NEIua-A
Not that I’m totally defending the CDC, but in all fairness, this was the first pandemic in 100 years (1918-1920).
Indeed it is. And that is fair for sure. I try to always see two sides so applaud your effort
What worries me is we also have much better scientific guidance in those decades. This is demonstrated by experts such as Topol. If you and I know the CDC is making blatant mistakes, it makes me very uncomfortable that they do not
Know.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1560359969035149312?s=21&t=u0tGAP7oqsIFWi1IQkYaEA
Philip, I think the early lockdowns, if we want to call them that, saved many lives. Masks alone wouldn’t have done the trick. Look what happened in Hong Kong earlier this year. They had a case fatality rate of nearly 5% for about a month. Why? Well, a population that had no immunity whatsoever, and many weren’t vaccinated either, were all of a sudden in a situation with only minimal restrictions, albeit with masks. It turned out really badly for older people and other vulnerable members of society.
In March and April 2020 we had no vaccine, we had no treatment, we had a virgin population, if you will, that had never encountered any SARS-CoV-2. Let’s try to imagine what it would be like at the hospitals if we just had gone about our normal business. The surge would have been much worse than it already was. By locking down early on, and by keeping some restrictions in place into 2021 (admittedly, it was a porous policy) we did keep many folks getting infected PRIOR to the vaccination campaign. Once that was underway, layers of immunity began building. That did not mean we were out of the woods. Clearly not. We still aren’t. New variants emerged. Vaccines didn’t prevent transmission very well, and in some instances didn’t prevent severe illness and death. But, one must analyze the counterfactual. Had we done nothing early on, except masks, it would have been an unmitigated disaster. People will often say, well, how about Sweden. Didn’t they have no lockdown? Well, as I said before, Sweden also had many restrictions in place, including in their public schools. Not in primary schools, but they did in secondary schools and universities. They had very strict limits on gatherings in public places, stringent limits (that were enforced) on numbers of people in establishments (also strongly encouraged outdoor rather than indoor dining and drinking), took the distancing seriously, protected older and vulnerable folks as best they could, etc …
C-19
8-19
ready