Sunday September 18 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)

60 Comments

The feel of summertime is back today as high pressure sits to our south. We’ll have sunshine but it will be filtered by high altitude smoke, giving a hazy look to the sky, in addition to some patches of high and mid level clouds, but the filtered sun will shine most of the day as temperatures shoot into the 80s in many places (70s South Coast) and dew points climb fairly quickly to the 60s as opposed to yesterday’s dry 40s – so you’ll feel it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may appear in southern NH and possibly far northern MA this evening as a back-door cold front slides down from the north northeast. This front will move across the region overnight and come to a halt somewhere in the southwestern portion of the WHW forecast area, maybe not making it through southwestern RI and southeastern CT, setting up a potential large temperature contrast for Monday, ranging from the 60s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest across the region. In addition, a disturbance from the west will be moving in with showers and thunderstorms developing and pushing into the region during the day, but most especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will be departing on Tuesday but enough instability will remain for the potential for pop up showers, so those have to be in the forecast as a possibility. High pressure will bring fair and mild weather on Wednesday before it shifts off to the southeast and a strong cold front moves through on Thursday, preceded by showers and possible thunderstorms, then ushering in the coolest air we’ve seen in quite a while just in time for the arrival of autumn (equinox occurs Thursday evening).

TODAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms also possible, especially CT, RI, and interior MA. Highs 66-73 southern NH, eastern and central MA, and northeastern RI/CT, 74-81 southwestern RI and southeastern CT. Wind NE 5-15 MPH. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly from the NE in the cooler areas, and S to SW in the warm zones.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms favoring eastern areas of MA, southeastern NH, and RI. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times but isolated to scattered showers are possible. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Sun/cloudy mix midday-afternoon. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Breezy/cool/dry weather September 23-24 with a large area of Canadian high pressure approaching and moving in via the Great Lakes. Milder September 25 as the high shifts to the east but may turn unsettled before the end of the weekend due to an approaching warm front from a system that will bring a cold front along and a shower threat through September 26. This should be followed by another shot of cool/breezy weather for the end of the period in a progressive pattern. Forecast Hurricane Fiona will likely remain out at sea well off the US East Coast but create rough surf.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Indications are for high pressure to dominate with a dry stretch of weather to end September and start October, with cooler than normal temperatures early in the period followed by a moderating trend.

60 thoughts on “Sunday September 18 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully today will be the last of the high heat/humidity and smoke until next year. Looking forward to the long term of cool if not chilly temperatures ahead, not to mention “deep blue skies”. 🙂

    1. Well the smoke is not really correlated directly to the temperature or humidity. That is determined by the upper level wind flow.

      We will probably see more smoke regardless of what our weather does because some of those plumes will still find their way through the Northeast into the fall season.

      As far as the weather pattern we have a brief warm spike now that looks like it would be Wednesday night with a faster frontal timing and the overall temperature pattern is heading to near to below normal.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Very cool quickly after sunset yesterday and very mild after sunrise this morning. What a change !! Beautiful weather in both instances.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Hope your migraine is improved. Issue here seems to be. Fingers crossed.

    While my hummer post last night was simply because I miss the little critters, your comment prompted me to check. We never had hummers in Framingham. Here we have several pairs and they are fascinating to watch. We had more than normal at the feeders this year. I wondered if it were due to lack of water elsewhere

    Seems patterns are changing due to climate and it may be difficult for these little guys

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/bird-migration-patterns-are-changing-and-climate-change-may-be-to-blame-180979054/

      1. Thanks SClarke. That is awesome. I didn’t add seed to my feeders this year because of the avian flu. But we have so many grasses on the hill in back that the birds were entertained…as was I 🙂 . I keep saying I will plant sunflowers along the base of the hill but somehow never do. Maybe next year as it sure sounds as if they are one of the best attractions for many species.

        We have an enormous butterfly bush that is full of butterflies and dragonflies. Nature is awesome, isn’t it?

    3. Thank you for the info!
      This is not something I pay really close attention to so I like to see input. Migraine is typical day after feeling which is still a dull pain but not a persistent one so I can’t really complain. I am out on a nice walk now. Other than the fireworks display I went to last night this is pretty much the only other hour I have to steal for myself this weekend lol.

      1. I hadn’t paid attention to larger birds. We have many different birds here so I don’t have the depth of arrival and departure knowledge. Glad you are better. Im always a bit wrung out the day after.

  16. BDF is very apparent on the visible satellite loop in the Gulf of Maine. Looks almost like springtime set-up.

    1. OK, I’ll ask what you mean by “BDF.” I checked online and my guess is “Ballroom Dancers’ Federation”! Am I right?

        1. Hahahaha I had to think about it. I am horrible with acronyms.

          I was then looking for the satellite but was distracted trying to find out if TB is being broadcast

          1. haha sorry, I’m rushing around doing projects and kind of flew through that one…

            Yes, back door front. 🙂

    1. A storm like this (hurricane yes, but not one of the super powerful ones) exposes the fragility of the power grid there. It’s not even close to where it should be, sadly. There are even outages down there in places that have barely gusted beyond 40 MPH. That’s telling.

      Absolutely would expect some significant outages on PR with the storm, but not 100% of the island.

      But yes, I completely agree that too much emphasis is placed on the center, the top winds near the center (and the category) and not the actual storm and its size, orientation, movement, etc. … That’s an ongoing issue.

      1. Very true. Having worked for over four decades for a company that had/has the vast majority of utilities worldwide as clients, we have known for that entire time what grids are susceptible.

        When we know a power grid is weak, we need to think outside the box.

        There was either a weak hurricane or maybe strong TS that went into TX a few years ago. I cannot recall the name. But it was downplayed and yet the flooding was horrific.

        I never understand the complete focus on category.

        1. I never have either. I mean yes, it is important, but it’s not “everything”. We’ve had tropical depression that have caused more devastation from flooding that hurricanes have caused from all their aspects. Granted not every time, but you can see what can happen when something like that is ranked just by its wind speed.

        1. It’s just rain. There’s a certain type of web / security cam that makes it look that way. Hampton Beach camera is the same, even with light rain.

            1. If you got pinging, then hail is possible. I didn’t notice any hail signatures on radar, but I also wasn’t paying super close attention. 🙂 Did you have any thunder down that way? There was some to my southwest (and northeast as well).

              1. One enormous clap of thunder and a light up the town lightning bolt. My oldest grand who is sensitive to noise was watching with me. He had his headphones on but asked about the pinging. He is really sensitive to hail after the summer 2015 storm we had. So I didn’t make a big deal other than open slider to listen when I heard pinging. It was brief. But the 0.28 was in a matter of minutes

                1. Thank you for the report. Glad he’s ok. Yes, that supports hail, and I did take a quick look at the loop from around then. The showers and isolated storms were a little bit more in coverage and a little further south than I gave them credit for being able to do. Also the time table was a little earlier, which means they were able to draw on a little bit of lingering daytime heating.

    1. Format has not changed. But my devices don’t like it because it is not a secure site That May be what you are seeing

      1. It is really simple to set up a secure site. I’d be surprised if everyone isn’t getting a no secure message when logging on

Comments are closed.